gi 2012 predictions presentation final v3 13dec2012

8/3/2019 Gi 2012 Predictions Presentation Final v3 13dec2012

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IDC Government Insights Predictions2012: EMEA Government

December 13, 2011


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IDC Government Insights. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

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Todays Speakers

Jan DuffyEMEA Research Director

Silvia PiaiEMEA Research Manager

Mark YatesResearch Analyst


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IDC Government Insights Analyst Team

Over 20analysts

focused ongovernment

sector -backed byover 1,000

IDC analystsand their

coverage oftechnology

andeconomic

trendsaround the

world


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IDC Government Insights Predictions2012: EMEA Government


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Goal: Identify trends that impact government business andInformation Technology decisions. Preview our researchagenda

Process:Drawn from IDC and IDC Government Insights

studies, industry contacts, and our own governmentexperience

Bias:We focus on the transformation of major businessprocesses and how IT enables that transformation

Time Frame: Predictions are focused on 2012, but will have along range impact beyond 2012

Why Predictions?


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EMEA is Definitely Not Homogeneous

Significant cultural, economic,geographic, institutional maturityand political differences fromregion to region and fromcountry to country

Ease of doing business andavailability of funding varieswidely from country to country

Economic crisis has affected

countries and regions in differentways

Different regions have differentgoals for public administration


7/53 IDC Government Insights. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

EMEA is Definitely Not Homogeneous

Significant cultural, economic,geographic, institutional maturityand political differences fromregion to region and fromcountry to country

Ease of doing business andavailability of funding varieswidely from country to country

Economic crisis has affected

countries and regions in differentways

Different regions have differentgoals for public administration



Across the Regional Economies

Western Europe

budget deficits soared as a result of the recession, bank rescues and fiscalstimulus packages

mounting public debt jeopardized the sustainability of economic recovery

ending the fiscal and monetary stimulus proved to be much harder than starting it every policymaker recognized that the situation was unsustainable

Central and Eastern Europe

Increased unemployment, austerity budgets and a lack of governmenttransparency continue to dog Central and Eastern Europe

Middle East

economic crisis was not particularly acute across the region

political and social turmoil disrupted business and threatened to divide the regioninto winners and losers

Africa

Economies proved resilient through the financial crisis, but growth is hamperedbecause of skills scarcity and weak infrastructures



For Many Eurozone Countries the EconomyContinues to Unravel

EU writesdown debt



Slow tonegativegrowth inEurozone

EU writesdown debt



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Taxes

increasinggovernment

spendingdeclining

EU writesdown debt


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Taxes

increasinggovernment

spendingdeclining

Stockmarketsfragile

EU writesdown debt


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Taxesincreasinggovernment spendingdeclining

Stockmarketsfragile

Consumerpurchasingstagnates

EU writesdown debt


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Taxesincreasinggovernment spendingdeclining

Stockmarketsfragile

Consumerpurchasingstagnates

Euroremainsvolatile

EU writesdown debt


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Governments are Engaged in a DelicateBalancing Act

Assuringvoters that

they feeltheir pain

Pumpingmoney into

the stagnant

economy

Reducing thedeficit


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Governments Struggle to Co-ordinateService Delivery With Budgets

Citi M t B At th C t f S i


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Citizens Must Be At the Centre of ServiceDelivery

1

23

Dynamic, flexible, innovative services

Available, accessible, relevant information

Citizens with the authority and desire to participate

The risk of losingsight of this isenormous...


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TransactionalWorkflow(ERP, etc)

TraditionalBusiness/IT

Conversation

DataColl

ection

Data collection atpoint of creation

(sensors,compliance issues,branches, kiosks,

etc)

EvolvingBusiness/IT

Conversation

Device

Device

Device

Device

Abstra

ction

Managementdashboards, strategic

decision support tools,analytics

New Business/ITConversation

Action

Analysis

Awareness

Pushinformationto middle

layers of theorganizationto facilitatedecision-

making andencourage

action

Data....................Analysis..................Decision..................Action

Providecitizens andbusinesses

with theinformation

andcapabilitiesneeded toencourage

and facilitate

self-service

Its All About Operations that Deliver CostEffective Citizen Services


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...and Providing an IT Infrastructure ThatSupports This...

Collaboration

Real-time datacollection,

analysis, access

Integratedstructured andunstructured

data

Scale


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This is Creating a Major Challenge forGovernment CIOs...

Systems arent adaptable

IT costs are too high

Processes are too cumbersome

Theres too much waste Service delivery is too slow

Data isnt being protected

Projects are too big, take too long

New services are needed now

Rigid systems dont adapt to

flexible processes


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Government CIOs Recognize the Needfor a New Approach to IT

Commercial arrangements that offer value for money

Cross-departmental projects that deliver systems that are fit forpurpose without extensive customization

What IT is used for is of critical importance, but in todays

economy how IT is used is just as important simultaneousleverage of both is the best approach

Along with fleet services, energy, and other services, ICT isnow considered to be a commodity and will be procured

accordingly

Last but certainly not least, government investment in IT issignificant


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2012 Government IT Spending Forecast:Western Europe Total US $53.7 billion

France13%

Germany17%

Italy

5%

OtherEuropeanCountries

36%

Spain5%

UK24%


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2012 Government IT Spending Forecast:Central and Eastern Europe

Total 2012 forecast for government IT spend, all CEE: US $6.90BFive biggest 2012 government IT spenders in CEE: US $5.51B

$240

$356

$697

$1,064

$3,157

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500

Slovakia

Hungary

Czech Republic

Poland

Russia


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2012 Government IT Spending Forecast:Middle East and Africa

Total 2012 forecast for government IT spend, all MEA: US $7.41BFive biggest 2012 government IT spenders in MEA: US $5.15B

$694

$706

$875

$912

$1,960

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

United Arab Emirates

Turkey

Israel

Saudi Arabia

South Africa


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Smart IT is Cost Effective...

In 2012 what will makeGovernment IT

Smart?Smart Delivery

Smart Procurementand Commissioning

Smart InformationManagement

Cloud Services Open Source

Software Shared Services Centralization/

Virtualization/Consolidation

BPO

New ProcurementandCommissioningPractices

Payment onPriority-basedOutcomes

SLAs

Informationmanagement andsecurity

Big data leverage


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SMART DELIVERY


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Delivery Pressure Points

In Western Europe the major issue continues to be aboutmoney ICT costs are perceived to be higher than necessarygiven the availability of alternative delivery mechanisms

In CEE the push from the European Union to get government

spending under control (despite the weak economy) meansreducing costs will be the top priority and one of the biggestchallenges for IT departments in the public sector.

There is increasing vigilance and calls by citizens across the

MEA region for improved transparency and accountability fromtheir governments. At the same time, there is an acute lack ofIT human resources to support development requirements.


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Use of Cloud Services is On the Rise

In much of EMEA, 2012will see a dramatic

increase ingovernment use of

private cloud services,particularly in Western

Europe

In Western Europe the move tocloud services will continue to beled by the UK at both the centraland local government levels withemphasis on private cloud

Rationale for cloud is spreadequally across cost efficiency,scalability, faster deployment ofapplications, and support forestablishing standard processes

In CEE and MEA, cloud serviceswill continue to attract attention, butwidespread adoption will behindered by security concerns and

legal requirements and constraints.


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Open Source Software BecomesMainstream

The perception of lowercost and increased

flexibility will drivehigher government

interest in the use ofopen source software

in 2012

The open source software (OSS)

movement has gained ground in WE, theUK is the most recent government toannounce plans for its use, althoughthere are still questions about the validityof claims re lower costs we expect theuse of OSS to increase

In CEE growth in the use of OSS hasbeen organic, but the recession hasintensified pressure to use OSS to cutcosts and we expect the move to OSS toincrease, more slowly in some countriesthan in others

In MEA, the public sector will continue tobe a key proponent of OSS, howevergovernment IT decision makers stillconsider it to be risky and are more likelyto use OSS for back end systems ratherthan client-facing solutions


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Shared Services Increasingly Favoured

As the belt-tighteningcontinues there will be amarked increase in the

adoption of sharedservices in many shapesand sizes at all levels ofgovernment, across all

public sectororganizations,

departments and functions

We expect the shared services model tobe pushed to its limits to satisfy theneed to cut costs pooled resources.There will be increasing exploration ofservice sharing across organisationaland geographic boundaries as well assharing services will the private sector.Services will be performed in-house,shared or outsourced .

In CEE, central governments willexpand existing services or create newshared services options for governmententities working at the ministerial to

municipal level, emphasizing thebenefits of common platforms andscalable functionality.


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Centralization/Virtualization/Consolidation Top of Mind

Once the poster-child ofGreen IT, virtualization

and consolidation are nowconsidered key to

optimized resource useand cost reduction and we

expect governments to

accelerate the reduction inthe number of servers and

data centers

It is not unusual for governments to

experience short term (almostimmediate) savings as a result ofserver virtualization

Cost savings through desktopvirtualization has proven to be a

slower process, but has deliveredlower expenses associated withdesktop support, applicationdelivery, desktop provisioning andapplication and operating systemmaintenance

A return to all-encompassing ITcentralization is unlikely, but thereis a definite trend towardscentralization of specific activities,IT procurement for example


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BPO Will be the Option of Choice inMany Situations

Interest in BPO willincrease across

governments inEurope, particularly ifthere are obvious cost

savings

Staff reductions, budget cuts, andskills shortfalls will increasegovernment interest in outsourcinggenerally and BPO in particular

BPO providers are expandingEuropean operations expectations

re growth are high, both from thepublic sector and other industries

Experience will prove that effectiveBPO required more hands-onmanagement than IT outsourcing

Governments will increasingly expectBPO to deliver innovative servicedelivery, but this will require a changein incentives and the need for a moreconcerted partnering effort


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SMART PROCUREMENT ANDCOMMISSIONING


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Procurement and CommissioningPressure Points

Governments in WE are facing the biggest financial squeeze inliving memory, but there has been insufficient focus onachieving and leveraging cashable savings opportunitiesoffered by improved procurement commissioning practices

Lengthy ICT outsourcing contracts have come under firerising costs, goals not met, difficult to manage are just someof the reasons governments are exploring alternatives

In MEA, there are efforts to bridge the public sector financinggap for infrastructure projects with contributions from theprivate sector and there is also pressure for greatertransparency and corruption prevention.


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New Procurement and CommissioningPractices Will be the Order of the Day

Governments will continue tore-write the procurementand commissioning rules

and ICT and relatedservices will be subjected

to changes includinginnovative funding, multi-

party joint ventures, pay asyou go, and cross-agency

contracts

Public sector contracting authoritiesdiffer greatly in size, culture andobjectives and range from the verylarge to the very small and theexperience of those responsible forinitiating and managing theprocurement process vary widely.

More transparency, improvedcommercialism, new provisioningmodels, new financing models all areon the table, but all involve significantchange

Single contracts for routine commoditieshas proven to save money and makessense governments will increasinglynegotiate for the same or similarservices across multiple departments


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Payment on Priority Based OutcomesWill Become More Palatable

To minimize the risk ofinappropriate public

sector spending, in2012 we expect to seemore contracts based

on payment for

priority-basedmeasurable outcomes

Payment for inputs is no longeracceptable it exposes the governmentto the risk of over-payment andpayment for services it doesnt use or

need and stifles innovation

Payment for results or outcomes

transfers the risk of delivery toproviders, it empowers and providesincentives for them to succeed

Priority based outcomes willundoubtedly be driven by businessprocesses that cross departmental

structures and budget, however thepotential for innovation and rethinkingservice delivery is enormous

Defining measurable business benefitsis critical to the success of outcomebased commissioning


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SLAs: It Will be More Obvious thatthe Devil is in the Details

Increased use of cloudcomputing will require

more time to be spenton reviewing the terms

and conditions ofservice-level

agreements to ensureneeded services are

properly covered

Governments continue to favorsystems that are externally hostedand managed

CIOs will need to pay closerattention to all contracts that

require specific services andspecific performance levels as partof their delivery government-widestandardization evolves and grows

As transition occurs, IT centers ingovernment agencies will become

less about systems operation andmaintenance and more aboutserving as centers of informationtechnology expertise


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SMART INFORMATIONMANAGEMENT

I f i M P


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Information Management PressurePoints

The Internet of Things has the propensity to create extraordinaryvolumes of data, offering significant potential for re-use andunprecedented analytical opportunities and present real-time andfuture leverage

Much of the data available for collection and analysis is personal, its

ownership is ill-defined, but its sensitivity is without doubt. There arebenefits to be gained from its capture but there are enormous risksinvolved in paying little attention to the need for privacy and security.

Ongoing investment in information management is vital. The risk ofnon-compliance with increasing regulation and legislation as well as

the risk of political embarrassment are sufficient to warrant ongoinginvestment in information security.

I t t i I f ti M t


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Investment in Information Managementand Security will be Paramount

The volume of digitalinformation will continue to

grow but, in a world ofchanging technologiesand increasing threat

sophistication,government investment in

organizing, managing, andsecuring this data will

receive high priority andcontinue to increase

The right to privacy and to the protectionof personal data are fundamental rights inthe EU which must be also online effectively enforced using the widestrange of means

To ensure the availability of mission-

critical systems, and also build confidenceamongst the citizenry and trust in thevarious online services that governmentsare promoting, security solutions will beseen as a critical investment

The push for paperless administration will

increase use of e-filing and e-signaturesand enhance the need for documentmanagement solutions; but uptake will beslower than in WE, as converting paper toelectronic formats remain a majorchallenge

Bi D t A l i ill I t d N


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Big Data Analysis will Introduce NewOpportunities for Innovation

Governments will developplans that allow for easyaccess and analysis of

both data and content tobetter support the most

appropriate distribution ofsocial, healthcare, and

educational services andresources

Governments have the ability to assemblemore detailed pictures of their citizens andbusiness than ever before

There will be increased investment insolutions that address the need for real-time, streaming data analysis such as

complex event processing, rules engines,and related software for real-timemonitoring, alerting, analytics, andintelligent process automation

Turbulent social environments and theneed for improved transparency will force

public-sector organizations to reconsiderand potentially revise their businessmodels and strategies based on real-timedata. In MEA, governments will start toleverage online social media as apreferred platform for citizen engagement


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Advice for Government IT Buyers

Operational efficiency, program performance outcomes, and services deliverycapabilities via new and emerging service channels are the keys to ITinvestments

Require continual strategy innovations, highly focused IT solutions and servicesinvestment, collaboration across agencies and governments, and newpartnering schemes with IT vendors

Focus on Smart Government maturity and the opportunity to capitalize on BigData, open data and transparency innovations, and the acceleration of personalmobile technologies to leverage value from social networking and collaborationwith their workforce and citizens

Integrate metrics and frameworks for evaluating and incorporating IT servicesinto their portfolios that extend the full life cycle of lines of business and

services and deliver measured value-based outcomes Build reliable return on investment (ROI) models that will help agencies analyze

new IT service models, and help build business cases for new types of ITinvestment (and migration away from older legacy systems)

22


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Align solutions and services offerings to broader governmentoperational efficiency (as opposed to narrower cost savings) andbusiness outcomes

Agile and innovative solutions that focus on government lines ofbusiness (human services, public safety, etc.) and emerging

technologies (mobile devices) and that maximize government programand service outcomes will win

Analyze where funding and programs are strategically positioned, aswell as careful and serious consideration of how to advance SmartGovernment collaboration that gives governments new opportunities to

achieve their goals Help government organizations leverage existing legacy investments

and create the longer-term view for them to migrate to the next-generation infrastructure/service environment

Advice for Vendors to Government

23

IDC G I i h U i


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IDC Government Insights UpcomingWestern Europe Research (Q1 2012)

Document Title Publish Date

Next Generation ERP Applications Published

Next Generation CRM Applications Published

Western Europe Government IT Spending Forecast 2011 - 2015 Pivot Table PublishedWestern Europe Education IT Spending Forecast 2011 - 2015 Pivot Table PublishedWestern Europe Government IT Spending Forecast 2011 2015 Report Dec 20112012 Top Ten Government Predictions for Western Europe Dec 2011Cloud Computing in the Public Sector -- Investment and Adoption Trends Jan-Mar 2012

Government use of social media: Investment and Adoption Trends Jan-Mar 2012

The Pulse of IT in the Western Europe Government Sector: Major Deals SignedAugust - December 2011 Jan-Mar 2012IT and Managing Money: Financial Management Solutions Priorities and Trends

2011-2012 Jan-Mar 2012Wireless and Mobile Technologies in the Public Sector: Investment and AdoptionTrends 2011-2012 Jan-Mar 2012

What IT Investments are Local Governments Planning for 2012? Jan-Mar 2012

IDC G t I i ht CEE


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IDC Government Insights CEEUpcoming Research for 2012

Document Title Publish DateTop IT Vendors in the Government Sector in Central Europe Dec 2011

2012 Top Ten Government Predictions for Central and Eastern Europe Jan 2012

More with Less in Central Europe: To What Extent Can Governments Tackle the ITChallenges Facing Them?

Apr 2012

More Bricks Than Bits? The State and Future of e-Government in Central and EasternEurope

Apr 2012

Core Central Europe IT Spending in Government 2011 and 2012-2016 Forecast Jul 2012

Beyond the Firewall in Central Europe: Government Planning and IT SecurityStrategies

Jul 2012

Vendor Assessment: Leading Central European Government Sector Vendors Oct 2012

eUsing the EU: Central and Eastern European Government IT Priorities and Visions Oct 2012

Still in School, but Learning Fast in Central Europe: Smart Cities Create BusinessOpportunities

Nov 2012

IDC G t I i ht MEA


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IDC Government Insights MEAUpcoming Research for 2012

Document Title Publish Date2012 Top Ten Government Predictions for Middle East and Africa Jan 2012

Middle East and Africa Government IT Spending Forecast 2011 2015 ReportJan 2012

Profiling the Leading IT Services Vendors within the MEA Public Sector

Mar 2012

MEA Government IT Investment and Spending Trends (based on end-user survey)

May 2012

The Smart Government Maturity Model: Evolving towards Transparent and OpenGovernments in MEA

Jun 2012

Cloud Computing in the MEA Government Sector Aug 2012

MEA IT spending in Government 2011 and 2012-2016 Forecast Update

Sep 2012

Innovative eGovernment Service Delivery within the MEA region

Oct 2012

Leveraging ICT to Enhance Transparency in MEA Governments Nov 2012


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Questions and Answers

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Appendix

IDC O i


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IDC Overview

IDC (International Data Corporation) is the premierindependent global market intelligence, events, andadvisory firm for information technology,telecommunications, and consumer technology markets

More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional,and local expertise on technology and industryopportunities and trends in over 50 countries

We have been delivering IT intelligence, industry analysis,market data, and strategic guidance since 1964

Our multilingual, multicultural workforce surveys over250,000 technology users and decision makers annually,delivering unrivaled coverage

IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technologymedia, research, and events company


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IDCs Global Network of Country Offices

1000+ analysts providing a global informationnetwork

Coverage of 50+ countries around the world More than 40+ years experience analyzing IT and

Communications markets

IDCs Famil of Ind str Lines of B siness


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IDCs Family of Industry Lines of Business:Insights: Industry-Specific AdvisoryServices

Insightsare a series of industry-focused lines ofbusiness within IDC

Each Insights focuses on technology-enabledbusiness innovation within a single industry

Insights leverage 40+ years of IDC researchmethodologies and processes

Each Insightsdivision is an agile start-up with aglobal footprint

IDC Government Insights covers:

Infrastructure consolidation Open Governments

North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America. MiddleEast and Africa

Advanced and Emerging Markets


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IDCs IT Executive Programs

IDCs IT Executive Programs consists of a family of research programs

intended to help todays time-constrained IT executives make more effective

technology decisions. The goal of the program is to offer accurate and timelyresearch that will assist IT executives in mitigating technology risks, maximizingthe effectiveness of IT investments, identifying and capitalizing on newopportunities, and bringing forth solutions that are aligned with theorganizations business objectives.

Our flagship offering in the series, the Executive TechnologyAdvantage Program, includes a strategic partnership with IDGs

CIO Executive Council, a global peer advisory community of750 global enterprises and more than 1,400 IT leaders. Throughthis new partnership, IT executives will have exclusive access toIDCs team of 1,000+ global analysts, IDC Insights industry

specific research, and the CIO Executive Councils member

CIOs, offering a global resource to help accelerate the decision-making process. The new offering brings together two of the

most powerful brands in the IT industry.

Our IT Executive Programs offer a range of services that align with the needs of ITexecutives - from very personalized guidance with a CIO advisor to specificresearch to assist with critical decision making.

For complete details visit: www.idc.com/iep

Terms of Use
http://www.idc.com/iephttp://www.idc.com/iep


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property of IDC Government Insights, copyright 2011. Reproduction isforbidden unless authorized; contact [email protected] forinformation. All rights reserved.

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