gfk - the mobile consumer

1© GfK 2015 | Mobile World Congress 2015

UNDERSTANDING THEMOBILE CONSUMER2014 device sales data and 2015 forecasts


Mobile is a catalyst for change

Sales of tablets 2011-2014GfK Trends and Forecasting, global sales value, compound annual growth rate from 2011 to 2014 for tablets

+65%Globally Emerging countries +110%

+49%

Developed world

As tablet sales explode, the mobile web becomes mainstream.


But making sense of the mobile consumer is challenging

Businesses need to be empowered with insights in order to create winning mobile marketing strategies to gain competitive advantage.

ActionsInsightsData


We provide the insights you need…

…by presenting an overview of the most comprehensive point of sales data and forecasts available on the mobile market

GfK partners with over 420,000 retailers worldwide to understand product performance

What products are selling

When

Where

For how much

Forecast sales

Tablets

Smartphones

Cameras

Computers

Smartwatches etc.


Let’s look athow the techmarket changedover 2014…

… and how it will continue toevolve in 2015


Spending on consumer tech devices has flattened

2015 global spending will be over-shadowed by the decline in mature product sectors and subdued demand in emerging markets.

GfK Trends and Forecasting, Global Tech Device Sales Revenue; Volume in USD & Year-on-Year Growth – 2015 forecast includes over 70 consumer tech products

+10%-1%

+2% +1%+1%2010

$920bnEconomic recovery

2011$1,008bnSmartphone, tablet PC &emerging market strength offsets sluggish developed markets

2012$995bn$ value hit by currency weakness outside North America

2013$1,017bnSmartphone and tablet growth offsets declinein more mature products

2014$1,030bnPhablet segment driving growth

2015 ForecastEmerging market smartphone strength and new product categories, e.g. wearables


1. Pakistan

2. India

Emerging markets continue to offer the greatest growth potential for tech devices

Top 10 markets of tech device growth in 2015

GfK’s forecasts based on our point of sale data from up to December 2014 (not including the US)

3. Vietnam

4. Nigeria

5. Egypt

6. Iraq

7. Indonesia

8. Thailand

9. Kenya

10. Saudi Arabia


So what devices are consumers buying?

Mobile internet devices are dominating spending on consumer tech devices

Global Sales Value, 2015 estimatedGlobal consumer tech devices retail sales revenue in USD - top tier products

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-F

Smartphones

Smartphone Smartphone Smartphone Smartphone

Media Tablets

Media Tablet

Media Tablet Media Tablet

Media Tablet

Laptops

Laptops

LaptopsLaptops

Laptops

Desk PCs

Desk PC

Desk PC Desk PC

Desk PC

LCD TVs

LCD TV

LCD TV LCD TV

LCD TV

Digital Still Photog-raphy





Feature phones

Mobile Phone Mobile Phone Mobile Phone Mobile Phone

Smartphones, tablets,

and laptops accounted for >50%

of global spending in 2014


Combined smartphone and tablet share of spending continues to rise

100% Coverage incl. North+Middle America – GfK Trends and Forecasting 2015 forecast

2012

2013

20142015

forecast

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Millions of units

SmartphonesTablets


While some regions are seeing growth slow…

Year-on-year percentage growth – 2015 forecast

Total market for smartphones and tablets including 2015 estimation by GfK Trends and Forecasting, unit growth

North AmericaA slowing market, device sales are now driven by replacement cycles and the desire to own multiple devices which enable optimal content consumption for different purposes.

7.7%

Western EuropeGrowth in the region is projected to be driven by low-end smartphone adoption as tablet demand is expected to decline in 2015 influenced by growing popularity of larger-screen smartphones (phablets). Overall, improved macro-economic conditions likely to have a general positive impact.

5.8%

China9% of mobile phone users will be using feature phones in 2015. Users upgrading to smartphones is expected to slow down in upcoming years as the market reaches saturation levels.

4.0%

Developed AsiaChange in subsidy regulation in South Korea and VAT increase in Japan dragged down smartphone figures in 2014. Expect economy to recover in 2015 and return to moderate growth.

2.5%


…others continue to have high sales of smartphones and tablets

Year-on-year percentage growth – 2015 forecast

Total market for smartphones and tablets including 2015 estimation by GfK Trends and Forecasting, unit growth

Middle East and AfricaIn 2014 local and Chinese manufactures fuelled growth in this region. However, smartphone penetration is still relatively low in many emerging countries within the region so strong momentum will be carried forward into 2015.

31.2%

Emerging AsiaSignificant market growth in 2013 and 2014 has been fuelled by increasing availability of more affordable smartphones, particularly those below the USD150 mark. Despite this, over 50% of consumers still own feature phones so market growth in 2015 will be strong.

30.7%

Central and Eastern EuropeSmartphone growth in 2014 was strong and was driven by the low end. However, growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2015, dragged down by the Russian market.

16.7%

South AmericaBoth categories performed better than expected. In 2014, the smartphone market here had the largest y/y growth compared to other regions. Expect a slower growth in 2015 as smartphone mix has surpassed 80% and smartphones now dominate the market.

10.6%


India

43.1%

Focusing on the infamous BRIC markets, smartphone sales continue to be healthy

While India will be the fastest growing market in terms of year-on-year growthin 2015, China smartphone adoption has almost reached saturation level

Total market including 2015 estimation by GfK Trends and Forecasting

BrazilRussiaChina 3.8%


2012 2015

Lower-priced smartphones are driving overall growth in the market, especially in emerging markets

The low-end smartphone price band is growing at the expense of the high end

Charts contain actual sell-out data until 2014 for Global GfK covered countries

31%

3%

21%

21%

High-end smartphones ($500+)

($0-100) Low-end smartphones


Smartphones are becoming faster

GfK point of sales data (not including the US), sales units %

CPU-Cores 4(202m)

CPU-Cores 2(146m)

1(51m)

Units sold in 2H14

CPU-Cores 8(21m)

CPU-Cores 1(166m)

2(69m)

4

Units sold in 2H12


And the screen sizes are getting larger


2H15: 277m units sold

2H11: 4m units sold

Screen size less than 3”

Screen size greater than 4”

Screen size between 3” and 4”


Developed Asia has the largest-screen smartphones, pushing the average to 4.9 inches

Average selling price erosion and increased availability of +5 inch-screened devices are two key drivers for this increase


Price erosion

$

Scr

een

siz

e av

erag

e

5.10”

4.98”

4.67”

4.47”

Global 4.70”

Developed Asia

China

Western Europe

Emerging regions ex China


This overall trend has seen the availability of phablets increase significantly

It has resulted in the cannibalization of smaller-inch tablets by phablets

GfK Trends and Forecasting, total market including 2015 estimationPhablet definition is a smartphone of screen size ranging from 5.6”-7”

250

200

150

100

50

0

Millions of units

Media tabletsPhablets

2013 2014 2015 forecast


Our data and forecasts can help you to

Understand how your products are performing in the retail and technical consumer goods markets

Align product availability with

expected market demand (matching supply to demand)

Minimize risks – identify how your competitors are affecting the market so your business can react

Identify potential growth opportunities (from a product

development and portfoliowidening perspective)Make better and

informed decisions


We have the world`s largest sample for the tracking of digital product sales

roll out of our point of sales tracking in Myanmar and Bulgaria

2015 different products are monitored in 90+

countries (digital and home & lifestyle products)

4,500,000

retail partners report to us on a regular basis

420,000mobile handsets in our database, with more

than 60 technical attributes

26,800


…enabling our clients to create

winning strategiesto enrich

consumers’lives

GfK. Growth from Knowledge

13,000+passionateexperts

We are thetrusted sourceof relevantmarket andconsumerinformation

Thoughtleader in the

industrieswe serve

We deliverglobally vital insights into

local markets –in 100 countries


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Visit: www.gfk.comConnect: @GfK_en

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