GF income projections & historical funding trends

GF, Projects, EA oPt, Lebanon Appeal & Syria Appeal

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GF income projections

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GF income projections – methodology & assumptions

• 3 donor categories were selected:– Traditional Donors;– Arab Donors;– Emerging Markets.

• 3 options were prepared:– Optimistic;– Realistic;– Pessimistic.

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assumptions common to all options

• Agency mandate is renewed;• Agency remains a valued and relevant

partner critical to donors’ political and humanitarian objectives in the region;

• GDP growth forecast based upon OECD estimates and DAC foreign aid forecast;

• Scenarios do not predict currency fluctuations or inflation;

• UN International Staff Costs and Project Support Cost (PSC) excluded.

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GF pessimistic projection - $ million

Donor 2012 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TD 506.9 484.5 477.2 470 463 456.1 449.2

EM 10.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17

Arab 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

TOTAL 538.6 519.7 512.9 506.2 499.8 493.4 487.2

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GF optimistic projection - $ million

Donor 2012 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TD 506.9 601.9 631.9 663.5 696.7 731.6 768.1

EM 10.7 22.1 25.5 29 32.4 33.1 33.7

Arab 21 38.2 42.8 47.4 52 56.6 61.2

TOTAL 538.6 662.2 700.2 739.9 781.1 821.3 863

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GF realistic projection - $ million

Donor 2012 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TD 506.9 552.2 563.1 574.1 585.4 597 608.7

EM 10.7 16.8 18.6 20.3 22.1 22.6 23.1

Arab 21 30.9 32.4 34.1 35.8 37.5 39.4

TOTAL 538.6 599.9 614.1 628.5 643.3 657.1 671.2

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historical funding trend & correlations

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GF - TDs, EM, Arab donors – 2005-2012

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projects – 2005-2012

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projects – 2005-2012 cont.

Category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012TD 47,870,528 44,922,207 31,353,037 18,377,181 24,111,401 57,888,591 100,759,506 113,342,843 EM 9,014 - - - - - 400,000 - NTD 282,736 - 1,920,585 1,168,717 4,714,351 177,123 834,116 484,458 Arab donors 5,503 8,130,970 6,340,961 8,118,707 18,365,389 15,478,833 91,788,304 24,717,437 UN 115,995 185,510 714,612 1,342,849 3,025,741 1,762,616 3,179,096 6,562,679 INGOs 247,137 98,417 1,441,696 955,092 2,769,809 1,096,809 2,558,386 809,202 Others 487,307 635,252 1,508,469 392,220 961,133 693,530 664,426 896,048 Total 49,018,220 53,972,356 43,279,360 30,354,766 53,947,824 77,097,502 200,183,834 146,812,666

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projects by field

Field 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Agency wide 9,554,264 HQG 470,239 259,030 1,973,411 1,487,639 4,070,812 2,391,579 HQA 650,413 692,807 1,579,941 1,647,070 4,726,811 3,118,035 WB 6,186,096 1,725,941 6,500,895 5,885,886 7,104,331 3,119,465 Jordan 2,784,831 4,600,929 3,196,592 1,700,318 4,639,483 5,893,419 Syria 9,607,943 14,718,437 12,335,044 15,596,410 20,859,063 39,904,797 Lebanon 16,118,487 5,630,321 10,791,842 12,546,037 20,207,621 28,906,231 Gaza 7,461,351 2,727,301 17,570,098 38,234,142 129,021,449 63,479,139 Total 43,279,360 30,354,765 53,947,823 77,097,502 200,183,833 146,812,666

projects by sector – TDs & Arab donors

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Sector 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Construction 0 1,126,600 416,000 2,707,539 66,759,565 9,095,000Education 8,922,539 6,711,237 6,892,306 27,790,557 66,623,214 39,542,894Construction/Rehabilitation 13,644,041 7,469,678 9,064,777 9,604,754 0 0Health 1,181,660 1,912,293 6,594,286 2,385,593 9,105,444 16,863,710RSSD 2,790,643 6,714,446 9,586,515 15,476,962 19,577,616 55,478,930Others/Protection 2,460,544 331,823 1,179,354 9,547,058 13,162,268 8,611,178Others 2,289,165 2,226,810 5,783,538 5,104,334 17,195,957 6,400,878MD 5,000,000 0 3,000,000 599,966 0 2,167,952Multi programme 1,405,405 0 0 0 0 0Total 37,693,997 26,492,887 42,516,776 73,216,763 192,424,065 138,160,543

EA oPt – 2007-2012

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Lebanon appeal – 2006-2012

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2005 – 2012 all portals - funding trend

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