Progress and gaps

Getting climate information to farmers:

Logo Logo LogoDr Robert ZougmoréAfrica Program Leader

CCAFS webinar on Climate Change and Agricultural Development, 1 February 2017, Portugal

Outline1. Climate variability and extremes:

impacts on agriculture2. Approaches and practices of Climate

information services3. Progress on CIS dissemination for

farmers decision makingCIS use and impact in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Senegal

4. Current gaps

• Temperature rise of ≈0.6-0.7 °C since late 70's• Largely higher than the global increase• Sea level rise of 18 cm during the 20th century

I

For the last 100 years: Unequivocal temperature rise

Anom

alie

de

tem

péra

ture

(°C)

Anom

alie

de

tem

péra

ture

(°C)

Global

Anom

alie

de

tem

péra

ture

(°C)

Anom

alie

de

tem

péra

ture

(°C)

After Benoit SARR, Aghrymet

Climate variability & change : facts!

To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Responses to variability and change

DecadesDays

Res

pons

es

Sho

rt te

rm

man

agem

ent

Long

term

A

dapt

atio

n

Tactical decisions

Seasonal planning

Strategic planning

Land preparation, planting, irrigation, fertilisation

Land allocation, Crop livestock mixes, varieties

Enterprise and livelihood shifts

How climate information services are disseminated to farmers

North GhanaClimate services delivered through mobile phones (ESOKO)

Climate services delivered through PICSA (Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture)

SenegalCCAFS scientists collaborated with the Meteorological Agency to develop downscaled CIS and to communicate them to farmers through radios programs and mobile phones

North Burkina

CIS communicated to farmers through rural radio programs and training workshops

7000 farmers 1.2 million farmers 7 million farmers

Seasonal forecast crop variety varieties

Onset forecast farm preparation optimum planting

Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder)Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticideTen-day forecast weeding, field workUpdating seasonal forecast second cropping

Ten-day forecast optimum harvesting

period rain during dry season

Before During cropping season Maturity/end season

CCAFS working with country partners to develop downscaled seasonal and weather forecasts

0102030405060708090

100

65

86

6471

% fa

rmer

s

N = 462

In Ghana, access and use of CIS influences farmers’ decision-making

0102030405060708090

10091 89

78

94

% fa

rmer

sIn Ghana, access and use of CIS may improve farm productivity and household food availability for poor and marginal farmers

N = 462

Climate-informed farmers change their farming practices

Defining the size of cropping area

Date of hoeing

Selecting variety

Date of weeding

Selecting cropping site

Selecting crop

Date of plowing

Date of sowing

Date of application of NPK

Date of harvesting

Date of pests control

Date of land preparation

Date application of urea

Date of application of organic manure

Date of threshing

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

56

56

51

40

39

36

35

32

30

21

19

13

12

10

4

Percentage

Changes in farm practices in response to climate forecasts (%)

Effect of climate information on cowpea yield-CSV BF

Exposed Not exposed0

100200300400500600700800900 847

685

Yie

ld (k

g/ha

)

N=49 N=27

Effect of climate information on cowpea crop revenue – CSV BF

Exposed Not exposed Exposed Not exposedInput Gross margin

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

43706

63128

56170

33797

FCFA

/ha

WTP in F CFA for CI in the CSVs - Burkina FasoFarmers are willing to pay for Climate information in CSV - Burkina Faso

Clim

ate inform

ation

Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting

Local working Group (Issue EWS)

FarmersAgriculture

LivestockLocal

authority

Extensionsservices Forestry

Rural radio

Seed growers

Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin

Stakeholders : experts and decision m

akersC

omm

unity

Pest DiseaseControl

Red Cross

Climate information up-scaled across Senegal

Impact of climate information services in Senegal

• Through 82 rural radios, mobile phone SMS, seasonal climate forecasts disseminated at national level to potentially reaching 7,4 millions rural people

• Climate information is now considered as an agricultural input in Senegal

Current gaps• Lack of complete climate data base in countries

To generate village-level tailored CIS To cover other sub-sectors (Livestock, Fisheries)

• Public-private business models for CIS disseminationTo enable scalable, sustainable climate service dissemination to

farmersTo take on board specific needs and co-produce differing needs

of men, women and the youth• Weak capacity of CIS stakeholders:

Capacity of met agencies to technically develop salient CIS Capacity of public and private sector actors to organise

sustainable and large-scale dissemination schemes and mechanisms of CIS

Capacity of CIS users to understand and make the best and beneficial use of CIS for risk management