Germany

905

908.75

912.5

916.25

920

2009 2016

906

916

German emissions have been rising since 2009

Source: Agora Energiewende; Franhofer Institute; German Statistical Office Data

Cha

nge

(TW

h)

-9

-4.5

0

4.5

9

13.5

18

0.30.1-1.2-2.1-6.7-6.4-4.5

16.4

Gas Lignite Hard coal Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Hydro

Closure of nuclear plants wiped out emissions reductions from less coal power between 2015 and 2016

Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, 2017

TWh

0

10

20

30

40

2015 2016

37.538.7

Germany got 1.2 TWh (3%) less electricity from solar in 2016…

Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

GW

0

10.125

20.25

30.375

40.5

2015 2016

40.8539.33

…even though it installed 1.5 GW (3.9%) more in solar capacity.

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, 2017

GW

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

2015 2016

49.6444.61

Germany installed 5 GW (11%) more wind capacity…

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, 2017

TWh

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2016

77.879.2

…but wind power decreased 2.1 TWh (2.6%).

Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

Why?

Because it wasn’t as sunny or windy in 2016 as in 2015.

What are the implications?

0

10

20

30

40

2016

5.9

121213

40

Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Wind Solar

Percent of German electricity in 2016 from coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind and solar

Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

GW

0

16.25

32.5

48.75

65

2016 2030 goal

60

40.3

If Germany adds 50% more solar capacity by 2030…

Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

0

2.25

4.5

6.75

9

2016 2030

9

6

…solar would still provides only 9% of electricity during cloudy years like 2016.

Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

Sources & Methods• Two estimates of German energy and

emissions in 2016:

• Franhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, January 6, 2017. Extrapolates from German Statistical Office Data through Oct 2016

• AG Energiebilanzen, Dec. 2016. Estimates, also used by Agora Energiewende, 2017

• Two analyses mostly aligned with some differences on wind & solar & large difference in nat gas generation

• Agora Energiewende numbers used for installed capacity and emissions Links: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/downloads-englisch/pdf-

files-englisch/data-nivc-/power-generation-from-renewable-energies-in-germany-2016.pdf

TWh

0

20

40

60

80

Natural Gas Wind Solar

37.6

78

4438.3

79.878.5

TWh (AG Energiebilanzen) TWh (Franhofer)

Radically different estimates of natural gas and small differences in wind and solar

Source: Fraunhofer, 2017. AG Energiebilanzen, 2017

54% 46%

CleanDirty

7%

94%

8%

93%

Low-carbon Share of Electricity Supply

10%

90%

Germany

SwedenFranceSwitzerland

54% 46%UK

42%58%

Belgium

66%

34%USA

83%

17%

Australia 54% 46%California

46% 54%

Illinois

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2016

54%46%

Clean Dirty

8%

93%

France generates 2x more electricity from clean energy sources than Germany.

GermanyFrance

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2016

German electricity is 2x more expensive than French electricity.

Ave

rage

Pric

e pe

r Hou

seho

ld [c

nts/

kWh]

0

7.5

15

22.5

30

16

30

Germany France

Source: Eurostat, 2015

German electricity prices rose 47 percent from 2006 to 2016.

Composition of average power price in ct/kWh for an average household (3,500 kWh per year). Data source: BDEW, 2016.