gerald cecil [email protected]
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21 st century energy options: assumptions & complications. Gerald Cecil [email protected]. Overcoming “spin”. 2 MW. 600 W. The world is changing I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air. Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Gerald [email protected]
2 MWOvercoming “spin”
600 W
The world is changing
I feel it in the earth,I feel it in the water,I smell it in the air.
Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970,population has doubled since
80% consume less than 10 kWh ($1) daily
<= Constrained by our obsolete energy systems
Almost entirelyfossil fuels
Petroleum consumed
per capita
BP gulf spill
2008
By 1/2011 78% world oil production from countries past peak
For oil flow to increase as in 1980s, rest must double to compensate for this decline.
Combined flow from oilproducing countries …
Tarsands
Totals from ASPO corrections forover-reporting
Remaining conventional oil is still easier
DAILY WORLDWIDE
Geology MAKES ~400 gallons of crude oil WE CONSUME 9 MILLION times
more!
Bracket Oil Production
Decline
Peak oil means …
World petroleum is a “zero sum”
=> any new user will displace someone
Our economic development paradigm “send us your resources to develop” is a LIE
Countries cannot develop using existing fuelsNew fuels need costly infrastructure, can be
weaponized (Iran’s nuclear power)
Pyramid of Supply (energy), NOT Flow (power)
US energy flow 20052025
DOE / QTR 9/11
Rapid electrification of light-vehicle fleet
US Travel: In 2008 …• Drove 5.5 trillion passenger-miles (22% nearest
*)
• 176 billion gallons (7 trillion kWh)
• C-neutral replacement for oil by 2035– Biomass & biodiesel … small fraction– Electrification … some combination of
< 180 million 3 kWe solar tracker modules
< 100,000 wind turbines, each 20 stories high (intermittent)
< 150 new 1.2 GWe nuclear (+104 now) / CSS-coal plants (400,000 cars/night for each plant)
(Assume EV is 4x ICE efficiency, 1/3 now available for nightly charge)
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US liquid fuel with export limits by oil producers + Hirsch max effort
Biofuels Shale
Coal liquids Enhanced Oil recovery (CO2 flood)
Vehicle efficiency Import oil
US oil
Billio
ns b
arr
els
an
nu
al
To fill gap in US liquid fuel supply
Biofuels 21% annual growth to 1 Gb/yr by 2020
+ 5 new nukes
& plug-in hybrids
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Hirsch + biofuels
Biofuels
Shale
Coal liquids
Enhanced Oil recovery
Vehicle Efficiency
Bil
lio
ns
bar
rels
an
nu
al
Addressing liquid fuel crisis is HugeWW II-scale energy/services industry
mobilization to build alternatives Coal-to-liquids for cars, shale gas for electricity
Boost electrification for heating & transport
Better batteries (range) + ultracapacitors (accel.)
Better (hotter, thorium-fueled, passive safety) nuclear reactors for electricity & eventually H fuel cells
Modest contribution but grand-scale deployment of wind turbines (industrial landscape), biofuels
Continued, long-term research on solar cells & fusion
Run your transition @ powerdown.us
$4.5 trillion out of US
Prospects for Energy Equity
www.moller.com
WHO/P.Virot
What tocut?
Converge toone person : one shareof global CO2 emissionby target date.
Contract to X ppm for50:50 chance that T change is 2 oC.
Clear Process!
USA
Thank you!