geotransformational changes that affect...

GEOTRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES THAT AFFECT

THE FUTURE OF CONFLICT

Presented By:

John B. Alexander, Ph.D.

Senior Fellow: Joint Special Operations University

Association of Former

Intelligence Officers

National Convention

Las Vegas, NV

16 October 2009

IT’S BEYOND TERRORISM

THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED

AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION

THERE ARE WARS ON:

POVERTY

CANCER

DRUGS

WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR

AMERICA IS NOT AT WAR!!!

WHILE OUR SOLDIERS ARE DYING

AMERICA IS AT THE MALL!!

WWII

40% of GDP

GWOT

4% of GDP

HIS FUNERAL “INCONVENIENCED” A DRIVER

& SHE COMPLAINED INDIGNANTLY TO THE SHERIFF

SFC BRIAN WOODS KIA, AFGHANISTAN, AUGUST 2009

“I would like to say

that I am sorry for

the inconvenience we

caused you during

the funeral

procession of

Sergeant 1st Class

William B. Woods,

but I cannot do so.”

“Your very right to

complain was the

reason Sgt. Woods

fought for his country

and ultimately gave

his life; thus making

the ultimate sacrifice

for you and your

family.”

Sheriff Glenn Boyer

Jefferson, CO MO

THE “WINNING” PARADOX

THEN

NOW

WINNING SOMETIMES MEANS STANDING UP TO A

SUPERIOR FORCE

QUANTITATIVE REALITY

VS

ABSTRACT PERCEPTION

TRANSNATIONAL INSTABILITY FACTORS

Many causes of instability are beyond

the scope of any single nation

Environment

Ideology

Organized

Crime Energy

Poverty

Food Water

TWO MODELS OF WAR

IDEOLOGICAL

VERSUS

NATION-STATE

OURS MAY BE

ANACHRONISTIC

No Foreign

Fighters

ORGANIZED CRIME

CORRUPTION TERRORISM

DESTABLIZE

GOVERNMENTS

Money Laundering

3-5 % Global GDP

GANGS

HUMAN

TRAFFICKING

DRUGS

WEAPONS

THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES

GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR WAR ON DRUGS

WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN

SPENT $0.7T

(Maybe $2.5T)

ROI = 0

THE WAR ON DRUGS FIASCO

Poppies Vs Wheat $50: $1

The cost of doing business

STREET PRICE REMAINS CONSTANT

More than 10 Tons

Confiscated

THIS WEEK!!

A PARADOX:

AS THE WORLD’S WEALTH INCREASES

SO DOES POVERTY!!!

Nearly two billion people

Without safe water

One billion live on

Less than $1/day

Africa: 11% of people

1% medical $$

ENJOY

TECHNOLOGY

EPIDEMIC POVERTY

FOOD SHORTAGES

UN HEADLINES:

THE GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS:

THE PERFECT STORM

WATER SHORTAGES

INDIA MONGOLIA

JORDAN

THE AMAZON

ARAL SEA

MALI

THE BILL PAYER

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

QOMOLANGMA ANTARCTICA

ARCTIC ISSUES: MINERALS & NW PASSAGE

PREDICTION: ICE FREE BY 2020

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

HIGH PROBABILITY OF MASS MIGRATIONS

MAJOR EARTHQUAKES

ENERGY COMPETITION

NUCLEAR

BIOFUELS

SOLAR

WIND

PETROCHEMICALS

TRANSNATIONAL INSTABILITY FACTORS

Environment

Ideology

Organized

Crime Energy

Poverty

Food

Shortages Water

THESE ARE ALL

INTERRELATED

22d Century historians will call 1990 - 2020

“The Era of Great Realignment”

•Geographic Reconfiguration

•Economic Redistribution

•Transient Relationships

•Non-State Security Contingents

•Amorphous Threats

GEOTRANSFORMATION TRENDS

NAMES AND BORDERS HAVE OFTEN CHANGED

PLUTONOMY? U.S. WEALTH DISPARITY:

WORST SINCE 1920’s

The top one percent of Americans

have more wealth than the bottom 95 percent!

THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE!

CEO PAY

Ellison (Oracle) $192M Poses (Trane) $127M

Blankfein (Goldman Sachs) $43M

(Plus $11B to execs in bonuses)

Even those who fail get rewarded

VIABILITY OF AMERICAN CAPITALISM?

SITUATION TODAY IMPACTS TOMORROW’S OPTIONS

DEFICIT OR DEBT:THE REAL PROBLEM?

NATIONAL DEBT ON 16 Oct 09: $11,910,513,883,030.20

A STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY

“First we must balance the federal budget. …. I will submit a budget

that eliminates the federal deficit within the next five years.”

President Bush, State of the Union, 23 Jan 2007

And there’s an

Unfunded

liability of

$59 T

WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE?

BILLIONAIRES: 2008 - 1125 - 2009 - 793

Bhumibol - $36B Gates #1 $40B

(down fm $58B)

TRILLIONS JUST EVAPORATED

& POOR HAVE PAID THE PRICE!

WHAT DO THESE GUYS HAVE IN COMMON?

IN 2008 WHAT COUNTRY HAD THE MOST IN TOP 10 BILLIONAIRES?

(IT WAS NOT THE U.S.)

WHAT COUNTRY HAD 7 IN THE TOP 25?

DISPARITY BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IS INCREASING –

RAPIDLY!

SIGNS OF CHANGE

HEADQUARTERS OF TOP 50 COMPANIES

FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES:

CHINA - 37 (9 NEW IN 2009)

U.S. - 140 (LOWEST EVER)

WORDS TO WORRY ABOUT:

“WE’RE FROM AMERICA AND WE’RE HERE TO HELP YOU”

ECONOMICS AND FOREIGN POLICY

THE CHINA FACTOR

A SLEEPING GIANT HAS AWAKENED

BEIJING

HONG KONG

SHANGHAI

THE TAIWAN PROBLEM

USE OF PRIVATE CONTRACTORS HAS CHANGED

RISE OF THE MODERN MERCENARY – 1990’s

SUCCESS IN ANGOLA AND SIERRA LEONE -

STABILIZED THE SITUATION

South African Company Most with 20 years

Experience in counter-

Guerilla operations

EO Was

80% Black!

THE UN OBJECTS AND INTERVENES

EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES

• <300 Men

• $20M Per Year

• Established Security

UN PEACEKEEPERS

• 12,000 Men

• $1B Per Year

• Allowed new civil war

WIDE VARIETY OF CONTRACT POSITIONS

RATIO MILITARY TO CONTRACTOR IN IRAQ 1:1

IN AFGHANISTAN IT IS >1:1 (57% of Force)

SECURITY

CONVOYS

POLICE ADVISORS

CONTRACTOR CASUALTIES - IRAQ

Fatalities > 1300

Injuries >29,000 (CRS May 2009)

WHO CARES? THEY DON’T REALLY COUNT

– OR DO THEY?

EVEN MICKEY MOUSE HAS A

PRIVATE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE

IN U.S. THE RATIO OF PRIVATE SECURITY

TO SWORE POLICE IS 5:1

LEAPS IN THREATS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT

North Hollywood Bank

28 February 1997

Phoenix Assassination

22 June 2008

Sinaloa Gang in Phoenix

SWAT uniforms, SUVs,

fully automatic weapons

Full body armor

Out-gunned LAPD

Future - Mumbai-like incident in U.S. -

Multiple targets, heavily armed, hi-tech,

Well trained, come to fight & die

A FUTURE ROLE FOR USSOCOM?

AQIM

North Africa

Abu Sayyaf

SE Asia Marcola

PCC - Brazil

NON-STATE THREATS

NEW TERRORISM: IT’S NOT ABOUT NEGOTIATION

THEY COME TO DIE!!

AND TAKE MANY OTHERS WITH THEM

A ROLE FOR NONLETHAL WEAPONS

STRATEGIC INCAPACITATION

EMP WEAPONS WITH

CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL OPTIONS

INCAPACITATING AGENTS

WHAT YOU DID READ:

- NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI)

- DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS

DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP)

- CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED

BY MOSCOW (WASH POST)

- USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE)

WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ:

HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT

WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ON

AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???

NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR

MOSCOW THEATER

A MATTER OF CHOICE

NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL:

WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??

COMPARED TO WHAT?

10mm Black Talon

PERCEPTION

THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS

AIN’T IT AWFUL???

THE WORLD AS SEEN BY PHILOSOPHICAL

GROUPS

THE WORLD AS IT IS

“There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and

human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”

GLOBAL TROUBLE SPOTS

AFGHANISTAN – DESTROYER OF EMPIRES*

P – Punjab

A – Afghani

K – Kashmir

I – Land of

S – Sindh

T – Tukharistan

A – Balochistan

N

* From Milt Bearden ex-CIA COS Islamabad

JFK ATTACK

DRUG GANGS

SINDERO RETURNS

ANTI-AMERICAN LEADERS

TRI-BORDER AREA

TIES TO ME & AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAN

INSTABILITIES

MST “La Violencia”

MIDDLE EAST TO SPAIN

SPAIN TO PARAGUAY

PARAGUAY TO MEXICO

(LANGUAGE TRAINING)

MEXICO TO US

($10K)

TERRORIST INFILTRATION PATH TO U.S.

WHY WE SHOULD CARE!!!

SUPPORT BASE

MEXICO: ARE THE WHEELS COMING OFF?

THIS IS THE RESULT OF AMERICAN POLICIES

O Plata O Plomo?

AFRICAN CONFLICTS

CONGO

6 M Dead

AQIM

MEND

NARCO-STATES

N-S SUDAN CIVIL WAR

1.5 M Dead last time

DARFUR

400K Dead

SOMALIA

350K Dead

Current

Future

Unstable

PIRACY TUAREGS

JERUSALEM – THE INSOLUBLE ISSUE

GOLAN HEIGHTS

WESTERN WALL

DOME OF THE ROCK

TEMPLE OF SOLOMON

CORE BELIEFS AND VALUES INCOMPATIBLE

• All people want the same things (life, liberty, happiness)

• Life, especially human life, has extraordinary value

• Females and males should have equal rights

• Individuals are solely responsible for their actions

• Value placed on shame and honor

• Opposing belief systems can be accommodated

• Democracy should be available to all

• Education is good and key to solving problems

• Progress will insure success

DETERMINING SUCCESS VERSUS PROGRESS

• PERSPECTIVE IS CRITICAL

• ESTABLISHING APPROPRIATE METRICS

• TEMPORAL ARTIFACTS

• ADEQUACY OF PROGNOSIS

Beware of the revenge of the bean counters

THE EDUCATION CONUNDRUM

TIMBUKTU

ZIMBABWE

NEPAL

AMAZON

RURAL AMERICA

EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY

THE U.S. CAN NO LONGER COUNT ON TECHNICAL SUPERIORITY

THERE ARE A LOT OF SMART PEOPLE IN THE WORLD

WITH EXCELLENT UNIVERSITIES

AND SOCIETIES THAT HIGHLY VALUE EDUCATION

FUTURE CONCERNS

WHAT IF YOU COULD BE:

- OUT GUNNED

- OUT SENSED

- OUT MANEUVERED

NOT SINCE WORLD WAR II:

BUT WE WILL LIKELY LOSE TECHNICAL DOMINANCE

• HARDER TO IDENTIFY COMBATANTS

• INCREASED RESTRICTIONS ON USE OF FORCE

• SHIFTING SOCIAL STRUCTURES

• INCREASED OUTSOURCING OF WAR

• US PUBLIC SUPPORT DIRECTLY COORELATED TO:

• TIME & SPACE FROM ATTACK

• VIOLENCE OF ATTACK

• PERCEPTION OF PERSONAL THREAT

• PARADOXES AND VALUE CONFLICTS ABOUND

FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

QANA

SUPPORTING THEM IS WHAT IT’S ABOUT

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE TO OUR COUNTRY

Email: [email protected]

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