georgian quarterly national accounts and time-series of short term statistics indicators levan...
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Georgian Quarterly National Accounts and time-series of Short Term Statistics indicators
Levan Gogoberishvili
Head of National Accounts Division, Geostat
Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) have been implemented in Georgia
since 1996. The recommendations of SNA 93 (the system of National Accounts) is
the base Methodology for compilation of QNA.
Data sources
Business Survey (Quarterly and annual);
Household Budget Survey (Quarterly);
Labor Force Survey (Quarterly)
Agricultural Survey (Quarterly and annual);
Survey on Consumer Prices (Monthly);
Survey on Producer Prices (Monthly);
The Balance of Payments (Quarterly);
Administrative data from the Ministry of Finance (monthly);
Data of commercial banks from the National Bank of Georgia (Monthly).
Timeliness of Data sources
Business Survey – 65th day after the end of quarter;
Household Budget Survey – 65th day after the end of quarter;
Labor Force Survey – 65th day after the end of quarter;
Agricultural Survey – 60th day after the end of quarter;
Consumer Price Indices – third day after the end of month;
Producer Price Indices – 15th day after the end of month;
The Balance of Payments – 90th day after the end of quarter.
Main data are available only quarterly.
However, some data are available on monthly basis.
Timeliness of QNA
Gross Domestic Product is published on 80th day after the end of quarter.
Gross National income and National Accounts Balance sheets are
published on 90th day after the end of quarter.
The users of National Accounts data are interested to get information
much earlier than publication date.
Therefore, they use some forecasts based on monthly data.
Geostat does not make forecasts, however we publish pres-releases of
“Monthly Economic Statistics”, which include available monthly data.
Indicators of Monthly Economic Statistics
Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Exports of Goods Imports of Goods Number of currently registered enterprises Value Added Tax (VAT) payers’ turnover Growth of VAT payers’ turnover Expense and revenue of state budget Total Output of Commercial Banks Total Output of National Bank
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP in current prices by 3 approaches:
Production
Expenditure
Income
GDP in constant prices - available only by production approach.
2003 is considered as the base year.
GDP at current prices
GDP at current prices (mil. GEL)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
I 03
II 0
3
III
03
IV 0
3
I 04
II 0
4
III
04
IV 0
4
I 05
II 0
5
III
05
IV 0
5
I 06
II 0
6
III
06
IV 0
6
I 07
II 0
7
III
07
IV 0
7
I 08
II 0
8
III
08
IV 0
8
I 09
II 0
9
III
09
IV 0
9
GDP at current prices
GDP at current prices (mil. GEL), seasonally adjusted
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
I 03
II 0
3
III
03
IV 0
3
I 04
II 0
4
III
04
IV 0
4
I 05
II 0
5
III
05
IV 0
5
I 06
II 0
6
III
06
IV 0
6
I 07
II 0
7
III
07
IV 0
7
I 08
II 0
8
III
08
IV 0
8
I 09
II 0
9
III
09
IV 0
9
GDP at constant 2003 prices
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
I 03
II 03
III 0
3
IV 0
3
I 04
II 04
III 0
4
IV 0
4
I 05
II 05
III 0
5
IV 0
5
I 06
II 06
III 0
6
IV 0
6
I 07
II 07
III 0
7
IV 0
7
I 08
II 08
III 0
8
IV 0
8
I 09
II 09
III 0
9
IV 0
9
Seasonally adjusted GDPat constant 2003 prices
GDP at constant 2003prices
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Indices cover C, D and E sections of NACE.
C – Mining and quarrying
D – Manufacturing
E – Electricity, gas and water supply
Total output for this activities is the base indicator for calculations.
Producer’ Price Indices (PPI) are use for deflation of industrial output.
2001 is the base year for chain-linking.
Total output of Industrial activities are used as weights.
Seasonally adjusted time series are obtained by using tramo/seats method of program
“Demetra”.
However, it does not take into account national holidays.
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Index (2001=1.0)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
I 05 II 05 III 05 IV 05 I 06 II 06 III 06 IV 06 I 07 II 07 III 07 IV 07 I 08 II 08 III 08 IV 08 I 09 II 09 III 09 IV 09 I 10 II 10 III 10
C D E
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Index, seasonally adjusted (2001=1.0)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
I 05 II 05 III 05 IV 05 I 06 II 06 III 06 IV 06 I 07 II 07 III 07 IV 07 I 08 II 08 III 08 IV 08 I 09 II 09 III 09 IV 09 I 10 II 10 III 10
C D E
Future activities
We are planning to calculate IPI for more detailed level of industrial
activities (2 and 3 digit levels of NACE)
Improvement of seasonal adjustment, including in it national holidays.