georgia professional standards commission georgia teacher shortages, supply and demand georgia...

Georgia Professional Standards Commission

Georgia Teacher Shortages, Supply and Demand

Georgia Professional Standards CommissionKelly C. Henson, Executive Secretary

August 27, 2008


Teacher Demand


Georgia P-12 Actual and Projected Teacher Staffing1997-1998 through 2011-2012 School Years

Teacher staffing projections developed with Gaussian curvilinear regression model using student enrollment and student-teacher ratios © 2008 GPSC

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

School Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Te

ac

he

rs

Actual DemandUpper 95% Conf. Int

Projected DemandLower 95% Conf. Int.

Actual Demand 86,263 88,757 91,467 94,689 99,470 103,350 104,845 106,934 110,135 115,049 119,018

Upper 95% Conf. Int 117,961 121,107 124,453 127,961 131,598 135,331

Projected Demand 115,250 118,302 121,543 124,939 128,454 132,059

Lower 95% Conf. Int. 112,539 115,496 118,633 121,916 125,310 128,788

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2012 represents the 2011-2012 School Year


Georgia Fall Student Enrollment by School Level, 1994-1995 through 2007-2008 School Years

Based on FTE-1, October 1995 - 2007

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

School Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Grades P-5 (Elementary)

Grades 6-8 (Middle)

Grades 9-12 (High)

2008 represents the 2007-2008 school year.

© 2008 GPSC


Teacher Shortage


Teacher Shortage, Federally Defined

By the Federal definition, shortage is identified as a lack of full certification, or in Georgia terminology Clear Renewable certification. The Federal definition is more stringent than the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) “Not Highly Qualified” or the more commonly used “Out-of-Field” definitions in which a teacher has no certification for the field being taught.

Produced for the 2007-2008 school year by GPSC for Federal reporting of teacher shortage from GADOE CPI08-1 and GPSC certification data.

Not fully certified11.4%

Fully certified88.6%

© 2008 GPSC


Number & Percent of Georgia Teachers Without Full Certification, Highest Twelve Subject Areas

3,7

44

1,9

02

1,4

83

1,2

92

1,1

24

53

8

47

5

44

3

32

6

31

3

30

3

30

2

14.3

%

11.9

%

18.6

%

10.9

% 16.2

% 19.9

%

18.4

%

6.6%

21.5

%25.8

%

44.1

%

8.1%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Subject Area

Nu

mb

er

of

Te

ac

he

rs(F

ull

Tim

e E

qu

iva

len

cy

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Pe

rce

nt W

itho

ut F

ull C

ertific

atio

n

Number (FTE) withoutfull certificationPercent (FTE) withoutfull certification

Produced for the 2007-2008 school year by GPSC for Federal reporting of teacher shortage from GADOE CPI08-1 and GPSC certification data. © 2008 GPSC


Sources of New Teachers


Sources of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers, 2006-2007 School Year

Based on CPI-2, March 2007

Other States,4,273, 28.5%

Other Sources, 100, 0.7%

Alternate Routes, 3,374, 22.5%

Returning from Absence,

3,389, 22.6%

Traditional Programs,

3,843, 25.7%

© 2008 GPSC


Contribution of Certificated New Teachers by Georgia Institutions of Higher Education,

2006-2007 School Year

Program completers reported by IHE’s for the 2007 school year; program completers certified in a teaching field first time in Georgia between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007. © 2008 GPSC

Public81.9%

Private18.1%


Number of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers fromMajor Sources Past Three School Years

Based on CPI-2, March 2005, 2006, 2007 © 2008 GPSC

2,5

25

2,8

60

3,1

11

3,2

01

2,8

53

3,0

60

3,3

77

3,6

59

3,3

74

3,3

89

3,8

43

4,2

73

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Alternate Routes Returning fromAbsence

Traditional Programs Other States

Source of New Teachers

Nu

mb

er

of

Ne

w T

ea

ch

ers

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007


Percentage of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers from Major Sources Past Three School Years

Based on CPI-2, March 2005, 2006, 2007 © 2008 GPSC

21

.6%

24

.5%

26

.6%

27

.4%

22

.0%

23

.6%

26

.1%

28

.3%

22

.5%

22

.6%

25

.7%

28

.5%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

Alternate Routes Returning FromAbsence

Traditional Programs Other States


Pe

rce

nt

of

Ne

w T

ea

ch

ers

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007


Georgia Traditional Higher Education Fully Certified Teacher Yield, First Three Years After Completion, Six

Year Average (2000-2005)

Based on CPI-2, March 2000 – 2007.

65.0%

18.0%

2.3%

60.3%

21.3%

3.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

First Year Second Year Third Year

Pe

rce

nt

Yie

ld

Public Institutions

Private Institutions

© 2008 GPSC


Yield of Newly Certified Teachers by Public IHEsStudents Completing an Education Program in the


Program completers reported by IHE’s for the 2006-2007 school year; completers certified in a teaching field first time between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007. Employment shown on GADOE CPI08-1.

Certified Employed Percent

Albany State University 18 16 88.9%

Armstrong Atlantic State University 157 129 82.2%

Augusta State University 103 83 80.6%

Clayton State University 33 25 75.8%

Columbus State University 129 93 72.1%

Fort Valley State University 2 2 100.0%

Georgia College and State University 150 126 84.0%

Georgia Southern University 296 247 83.4%

Georgia Southwestern State University 82 71 86.6%

Georgia State University 277 232 83.8%

Kennesaw State University 418 350 83.7%

North Georgia College and State University 250 205 82.0%

University of Georgia 471 353 74.9%

University of West Georgia 326 276 84.7%

Valdosta State University 249 206 82.7%

Total 2,961 2,414 81.5%

© 2008 GPSC


Yield of Newly Certified Teachers by Private IHEsStudents Completing Education Program in the

2006-2007 Academic Year Certified Employed Percent

Agnes Scott College 29 20 69.0%

Atlanta Christian College 6 3 50.0%

Berry College 48 37 77.1%

Brenau University 65 55 84.6%

Brewton-Parker College 40 36 90.0%

Clark Atlanta University 28 21 75.0%

Covenant College 24 5 20.8%

Emmanuel College 38 31 81.6%

Emory University 16 11 68.8%

Lagrange College 30 18 60.0%

Mercer University 116 100 86.2%

Paine College 4 3 75.0%

Piedmont College 98 84 85.7%

Reinhardt College 32 28 87.5%

Shorter College 30 26 86.7%

Spelman College 11 11 100.0%

Thomas University 18 16 88.9%

Toccoa Falls College 13 6 46.2%

Wesleyan College 8 8 100.0%

Total 654 519 79.4%Program completers reported by IHE’s for the 2006-2007 school year; completers certified in a teaching field first time between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007. Employment shown on GADOE CPI08-1. © 2008 GPSC


Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield:Core Area Certificates, 2006-2007 School Year

Program completers reported by IHE’s for the 2006-2007 school year; program completers certified in a teaching field first time in Georgia between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007.

80 108 50 9 3 20 110 160 119 202 117 70 0 121 27

4

8

6

3

8

60

8

21

23

15

12

80 11

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Core Subject Area(Grades 6-12 unless noted)

Nu

mb

er

of

Ce

rtif

ica

tes

Iss

ue

d Private

Public

© 2008 GPSC


Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield:Elementary and Middle School Certificates,


Program completers asserted by IHE’s for the 2006-2007 school year; program completers certified in a teaching field first time in Georgia between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007.

1,406 259 230 51 172 320

418

79 71101

50

10

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Early Childhood(P-5)

Language Arts(4-8)

Mathematics(4-8)

Reading(4-8)

Science(4-8)

Social Science(4-8)

Elementary or Middle School Subject Area

Nu

mb

er

of

Ce

rtif

ica

tes

Iss

ue

d

Private

Public

© 2008 GPSC


Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield: Special Education Certificates,


58 5 3 294 149 8 1

7

0204

43

43

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

AdaptedCurriculum

Consultative

BehaviorDisorders

Consultative

DeafEducation

Consultative

GeneralCurriculum

Consultative(P-5)

GeneralCurriculum

Consultative

LearningDisabilities

Consultative

Physical &Health

DisabilitiesConsultative

Special Education Area(Grades P-12 unless noted)

Nu

mb

er

of

Ce

rtif

ica

tes

Iss

ue

d Private

Public

Program completers asserted by IHE’s for the 2006-2007 school year; program completers certified in a teaching field first time in Georgia between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007. © 2008 GPSC


Teacher Attrition


Annual Percent Attrition of Teachers from the Georgia Public School Workforce,

1997-1998 through 2006-2007 School Years

Based on CPI-2, March 1998 – 2008

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pe

rce

nt

of

Te

ac

he

r W

ork

forc

e

Move or promotion to anon-teaching position

Attrition from Georgiapublic education

This graph shows the attrition of all teachers each year regardless of experience. Departure attrition has been declining very slightly for the last several years, while the rate of promotions has risen. The overall rate of attrition since the 2003 school year has been very stable.

© 2008 GPSC


Two-Year Average Annual Teacher Attrition Ratesby Subject Areas

11.8%

10.6%

10.1%

10.0%

9.9%

9.8%

9.6%

9.4%

8.5%

8.1%

6.6%

6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%

Foreign Language

English/Language Arts

Science

Social Sciences

CTAE

Special Education

Mathematics

ESOL

Arts

Elementary

Health/PE

Ge

ne

ral S

ub

jec

t A

rea

Average Percentage Annual Teacher Attrition

Average of two years attrition using CPI-2, March 2005 – 2007. © 2008 GPSC


Two-Year Average Annual Teacher Attrition Counts by Subject Areas

Average of two years attrition using CPI-2, March 2005 – 2007.

3,349

1,518

1,040

773

677

658

468

412

343

250

136

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Elementary

Special Education

English/Language Arts

Mathematics

Social Sciences

Science

CTAE

Arts

Health/PE

Foreign Language

ESOL

Ge

ne

ral S

ub

jec

t A

rea

Average Number of Teachers Leaving Per Year

© 2008 GPSC


Teacher Hiring Demand from Student Enrollment & Policy Change, Teacher Attrition & Promotion,1997-1998 through 2007-2008 Academic Years

Based on CPI-2, March 1997 – 2008

6,1877,012 7,466

8,595 8,303 8,6279,434 9,608 9,748 10,065 10,539

2,8192,495

2,710

3,2224,781 3,880

1,4952,089

3,201

4,914 3,969

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Nu

mb

er

of

Te

ac

he

rs H

ire

d

Growth (Enrollment & Policy Change) Hires

Replacement (Attrition & Promotion) Hires

The increase in the number of teachers hired to replace attrition and promotion is quite stable, while the changes in the numbers hired to address student enrollment growth and policy changes (such as class size legislation) can be dramatic.

© 2008 GPSC


Comparison of Teacher Ages, 1997-1998 and 2006-2007 School Years

Based on CPI-2, March 1998 and 2007 © 2008 GPSC

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Teacher Age

Pe

rce

nt

of

Te

ac

he

rs

School Year 1997-1998

School Year 2006-2007

Although the average teacher age has increased only slightly in the past decade (from 41.27 to 42.04 years), the distribution of ages suggests that the older group of teachers in Georgia schools may depart at a somewhat higher rate in future years.


Comparison of Traditional and Actual Retention of Teachers in the Georgia Public School System

Based on CPI-2, March 1997 through 2007

89.5%

82.8%

76.7%72.8%

69.9%67.8% 66.2% 65.3%

89.3%

82.5%

76.0%71.5%

67.9%65.0%

62.2%60.0%

89.3%

80.9%

73.0%

66.9%62.1%

58.0%54.4%

51.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 6 Years 7 Years 8 Years

Pe

rce

nt

of

Te

ac

he

rs

Retention recognizingreturns & promotions

Retention includingreturns after absence

Traditionally calculatedteacher retention

"Traditional" retention (red) only considers teachers' first departure from the public schools. The blue line includes the many teachers who return to teaching after absence. The green line includes teachers who take a non-teaching position. Those changes still require replacement and still incur recruiting and placement costs. This graph averages the retention information of new teachers who first started teaching in the 1997, 1998 and 1999 school years.

© 2008 GPSC


Summary


Number of New Teachers Needed by the 2012 School Year

Based on projected student enrollment growth and a stable 9.14% teacher attrition rate

3,374 3,3893,843

4,273

6,476 6,504

7,376

8,201

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Alternate Routes Returning fromAbsence

TraditionalPrograms

Other States


Nu

mb

er

of

Ne

w T

ea

ch

ers

2007 School Year

2012 School Year

By 2012, 28,749 new teachers will be needed that year to meet growth and replacement demands

© 2008 GPSC

Mathematics and ScienceTask Force

Recommendations

Introduction• Georgia is the third fastest growing state in the nation• Four years of mathematics and science are now a

requirement for graduation• A more rigorous and integrated secondary curriculum

has been implemented• Current production of mathematics teachers falls

short of both current and future needs• The requirement for four years of sciences will

increase demand for specific certifications• Only three physics teachers were produced last year• Georgia students must have available high-level

science and mathematics courses in order to compete nationally and internationally

Task Force MembersDiane Bradford, Deputy Superintendent, Office of

Education Support & Improvement, Georgia Department of Education

Renee Byrd-Lewis, Director, Community Relations, Scientific Atlanta

Cindi Chance, Dean, College of Education, Georgia Southern University

Ann Cramer, Director of North America IBM Corporate Citizenship

Steve Dolinger, President, Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education

Adrian Epps, Associate Dean, College of Science & Mathematics, Kennesaw State University

Herb Garrett, Executive Director, Georgia School Superintendents Association

Stephanie Gordy, Executive Director, Griffin Regional Education Service Agency

Kelly Henson, Executive Secretary, Georgia Professional Standards Commission

Phil Horton, Professor, Covenant CollegeSheila Jones, Senior Executive Director of P-16

Programs, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia

Jan Kettlewell, Vice Chancellor, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia

Connie Kopcsak, Master Teacher, Mathematics, Whitfield County Schools

Teresa MacCartney, Division Director, Educational Development Division, Office of Planning & Budget

Kathleen Mathers, Director of External Relations, Governor’s Office of Student Achievement

Bill McCargo, Vice President of Community Relations, Scientific Atlanta

Paul Ohme, Director, Georgia Institute of Technology Center for Education Integrating Science, Mathematics & Computing (CEISMC)

Trish Paterson, Executive Director, Teacher Quality Initiatives, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia

José Perez, Member, Georgia State Board of Education

Mark Pevey, Senior Executive Director, P-16 Data and Operations, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia

Stephen Pruitt, Director of Academic Standards, Georgia Department of Education

Bettye Raye, Superintendent, Social Circle City Schools

Jennifer Rippner Buck, Executive Director, Governor’s Office of Student Achievement

Holly Robinson, Commissioner, Bright from the Start, Georgia Department of Early Care & Learning

Bobby Stephens, Consultant, Metro Regional Educational Service Agency

Pam Walker, Master Teacher, Science, Douglas County Schools.

Task Force Recommendations

1. Attract New Mathematics & Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay

2. Increase Elementary Teacher Mathematics & Science Endorsements

3. Create an Efficient Alternative Middle & High School Teacher Preparation Route

4. Create Adjunct Faculty Certification for High Need Subjects

5. Redirect Teacher Scholarship Loan Funds6. Increase Science Teacher Education Programs7. Improve Teacher Retention

1. Attract New Mathematics and Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay

• Pay new fully-certified mathematics and science teachers at Step 4 of the Georgia Teacher Salary Scale

• Raise current fully-certified mathematics and science teachers at Steps E, 1, 2 or 3 to Step 4 of the Teacher Salary Scale

• Require mathematics and science teachers to earn Master Teacher status to retain pay increase

2. Increase Elementary TeacherMathematics and Science

Endorsements

• Increase opportunities for elementary teachers to earn the endorsements

• Provide differentiated pay for elementary teachers with the endorsements

3. Create an Efficient Alternative Middle &High School Teacher Preparation Route

• SubjectsMathematics, Science, English/Language Arts, Foreign Language, Social Studies, History, Geography, Economics, Political Science, Behavioral Science

• Initial Requirements– Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2.5 GPA)– GACE Basic Skills Assessment– GACE Content Assessment

• Initial Placement– Employment– Three Year Non-Renewable Credential

• Clear Renewable Certificate Requirements– Coaching (One year minimum)– Georgia Special Requirements– GACE Professional Pedagogy Assessment

4. Create Adjunct Faculty Certificationfor High Need Subjects

• Enable mathematics and science experts to teach part-time– One-year renewable license– Mentoring for teaching skills

5. Redirect Teacher ScholarshipLoan Funds

• For college students who intend to become mathematics or science teachers– Redirect $1 million each year for the Promise

Teacher Scholarship Loan Program– Redirect $2 million each year for the HOPE

Teacher Scholarship Loan Program

6. Increase Science TeacherEducation Programs

• Simplify program approval process

• Increase flexibility for institutions to design preparation programs

• Streamline current program approval and review procedures

7. Improve Teacher Retention

• Design and implement statewide intensive new teacher induction program

Task Force Recommendations

1. Attract New Mathematics & Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay

2. Increase Elementary Teacher Mathematics & Science Endorsements

3. Create an Efficient Alternative Middle & High School Teacher Preparation Route

4. Create Adjunct Faculty Certification for High Need Subjects

5. Redirect Teacher Scholarship Loan Funds6. Increase Science Teacher Education Programs7. Improve Teacher Retention

georgia professional standards commission georgia teacher shortages, supply and demand georgia...

Documents

gpsc slide

hired georgia teachers

school year completers

gpsc certification data

school year program

school level

certified teacher yield

certified teachers