georgia demographic, educational and economic trends

21
Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends Version May 2021 This information package is provided as a public service to state legislators, government leaders, and the general public.

Upload: others

Post on 06-Dec-2021

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic TrendsVersion May 2021

This information package is provided as a public service to state legislators, government leaders, and the general public.

Page 2: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Georgia’s Changing Demographics

Georgia is a growing and increasingly diverse state. Growth in the state is primarily driven by in-migration of people from other states. In 2020 Georgia’s estimated population was 10.7 million. The state population is projected to climb to 13 million by 2040. Like most states, Georgia has been experiencing a lower birth rate since 2007 and its population is aging. In the next decade, Georgia’s population growth is projected to be centered in the metro Atlanta area, the mountain areas of north Georgia, and coastal counties anchored around Savannah. Urban and regional hubs in the state are projected to continue to see population growth.

Page 3: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Population growth between 1930 and 2010 has accelerated.

0

2

4

6

8

10

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Popu

lati

on in

Mill

ions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census. Note: The 2020 count has not been released.

Year Population1930 2,908,5061940 3,123,7231950 3,444,5781960 3,943,1161970 4,589,5751980 5,463,1051990 6,478,1492000 8,186,4532010 9,687,653

Page 4: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Much of the population growth occurred in the Atlanta metro area and around Chattanooga.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and Estimates Program. Note: The 2020 count has not been released; the map uses the 2020 estimate based on the 2010 count.

Page 5: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Population growth accelerated in the 1990’s and is projected to continue at the same rate for the next several decades.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Popu

lati

on in

Mill

ions

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census; Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Population Projections (2020 Series). Note: The 2020 count has not been released.

Year Population1980 5,463,1051990 6,478,1492000 8,186,4532010 9,687,6532020 10,707,203

2030 11,979,787

2040 13,006,562

Page 6: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Rural counties, especially in middle and south Georgia, are projected to lose population, while suburban and coastal counties gain.

Source: U.S Census Bureau Estimates Program; Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Population Projections (2020 Series).

Year Population2010 9,687,653

2020 10,707,203

2030 11,979,787

2040 13,006,562

Page 7: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

The racial and ethnic makeup of the state has been changing, with White population shrinking and the Hispanic population growing quickly.

20101990 2000

56%

30%

9% 5%

White Black Hispanic Other

63%

29%

5% 3%

White Black Hispanic Other

70%

27%

2% 1%

White Black Hispanic Other

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Social Explorer.

Page 8: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

The trend in greater race and ethnic diversity is projected to continue.

2020 20402030

52%

32%

10% 7%

White Black Hispanic Other

50%

32%

11%7%

White Black Hispanic Other

47%

32%

13%8%

White Black Hispanic Other

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Population Projections (2020 Series).

Page 9: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Birth rates in Georgia have been declining since 2007.

Source: CDC

200773.4

201958.0

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Rat

e pe

r 10

00 fe

mal

es a

ge 1

5–44

Page 10: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

People moving in from other U.S. states fuels the state’s growth.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Estimates Program.

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

In-Migration Immigration Natural Increase

Domestic in-migration outstrips natural increase

Domestic migration recovers from recession

Page 11: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

The population is aging, and the proportion age 65 and over is projected to grow to nearly a quarter of the total by 2040.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Social Explorer; Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Projections (2020 Series).

7.4% 8.0%9.5% 10.1% 9.6% 10.7%

16.2%

19.8%21.8%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

% of Georgia Population 65+

Page 12: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Educational attainment in Georgia has been trending up over the past ten years. U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) data shows that the percent of the population over age 25 that has a bachelor’s degree or higher has improved from 28.8% in the 2010-2015 ACS to 31.3% in the 2015-2019 ACS. Some of the gain is attributable to the economic growth of the state and in-migration of knowledge workers.

Another component of the improvement in educational attainment is attributed to increases in the number of high school graduates and gains related to post-secondary credentials.

High school graduation rates have been trending up for a number of years with the 2019-2020 rate being 83.8% The proportion of individuals with less than a high school diploma decreased in both urban and rural counties but decreased more in rural counties.

Education Trends

Page 13: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Slightly over half of Georgians age 25 and over had at least some postsecondary education in the 5-year period 2015–19.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates).

4.6%

8.2%

27.7%

20.3%

7.8%

19.2%

12.1%

Less than 9th grade

9th to 12th grade, no diploma

High school graduate (includes equivalency)

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

Page 14: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

The high school graduation rate has been steadily increasing.

Source: Governor’s Office of Student Achievement.

83.8%

82.0%81.6%

80.6%

79.4%78.8%

2019-202018-192017-182016-172015-162014-15

Page 15: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Metropolitan counties were home to the highest proportion of those 25 and over with a Bachelor’s degree or higher in 2015–19.

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates).

Page 16: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Georgia continues to ranked as one of the top states to do business. Georgia is home to some of the leading fortune 500 companies like Coca-Cola Company, Home Depot, Delta Air Lines, UPS and NCR Corporation. The economy of Georgia is diverse ranging from the growing film industry, to core industries like logistics and transportation, poultry and agricultural products, financial services including banking, insurance, and payment processing companies, and textile manufacturing. There are some aspects of the Georgia economy that are unique to different regions of our state. For example, the floor covering and carpet industry is dominant in the northwest corner of Georgia. Poultry is the state’s top agricultural product and much of the growing and processing of livestock occurs in the northeast part of the state. If you traveled through the southeast part of the state, you would see lots of activity related to timber and wood products as well as the state’s growing blueberry industry and famous Vidalia™ onions. The coast of Georgia is home to one of the busiest ports on the east coast with major terminals in Savannah and Brunswick. Southwest Georgia is home to a variety of manufacturing and agricultural related industries. Small business and entrepreneurs are found across all industry sectors and regions of state. Georgia is also home to several large military bases including Fort Benning and Fort Stewart and Air Force bases in Warner Robins and Valdosta. A Marine Corps Logistics Base is located in Albany and the US Army Cyber Command is at Fort Gordon in Augusta.The diversity and business friendly climate of Georgia’s economy makes the state attractive to new investment and more resilient to economic shocks.

Economics

Page 17: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Suburban metro counties had the highest median household income in 2015–19

Median household income increased 9.2% in Georgia from $51,842 in 2010 to $56,628 in 2019.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates).

Page 18: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

Asian and White people were the least likely to have income below poverty in the past 12 months in 2015–19.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates).

10.3%

11.3%

21.5%

22.6%

22.9%

Asian

White

Black or African American

Other

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

Page 19: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

While poverty diminished in much of the state after the great recession, north Georgia, metro Atlanta, and the coast recovered more quickly.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

The poverty threshold for a family of 4 in 2010 was

$22,314

The poverty threshold for a family of 4 in 2019 was

$26,172

Page 20: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends

For more information about demographic, education, and economic changes in Georgia go tohttps://georgiadata.org/topics

Institute of Government contacts:David Tanner, Associate Director, [email protected] Wilson, Workforce and Economic Analysis, [email protected]

Page 21: Georgia Demographic, Educational and Economic Trends