georgetown university 2017 spring msre presentation by john reardon

John Reardon – COO Facchina Development LLC

The New World Super City Centers – The Rise of the City Nation State Continues as 60 % of G-GDP

Heading For 75% of G-GDP, Real Estate Cools, New Infrastructure Projects is the New Norm, IMF and Global Structures Get Rattled

By ResistancePresentation by John Reardon

R & A Consultants Owners Rep Georgetown University MSRE Guest Lecturer 2006 – 2017; Topics Corporate Real Estate, Global Economy, Capital Movements Worldwide and the New Evolving Global Community

2015 – 2016 Majority of Capital Continues to Move to City States – Governments Focus on Infrastructure Funding For New Public Debt Additions as a Stimulus Strategy , MNCs M & A reaches Record Levels; WGDP Spiked at Year End Due to Lower Oil Prices, Flight to Currency and Financial Asset Safety continues In Flows into US and UK, Sovereign Debt Hits $55 Trillion passing 51% of all World Debt and will Double by 2020 just to Maintain the Global Economy at 2-3% Growth creating the new term “Credit Driven Economy”, Real Estate Transactions Pass $1 Trillion approaching pre-recession numbers with Record Investor Inflows, Currency Wars have Begun and Quantitive Easing is Alive Now derailing De-Leveraging by Central Banks ……..2017 - $52 Trillion in new Public Debt over next (5) Years

Executive Summary

Master of Professional Studies in Real Estate

http://www12.georgetown.edu/scs/index.cfm


THE NEW WORLD ORDER Organized and Still the Wild, Wild West

The New Global Community

• The New World Order

• $Trillions in the Balance

• Billions of People

• The Earth & The Environment• Health Care• Housing & Services• Culture Richness & Human Rights• Resources• Knowledge & Creating • Governance

BASED ON REAL LIFE

…….So How Is It Going So Far….???

OPPORTU

NITY ---------- Continues ...


The Creation of A Global CommunityPlanet Earth

Core Foundation Items•Land•Natural Resources•Livability•People•Government•Laws & Regulations

Enabling Infrastructure•Infrastructure &Transportation•Food & Shelter•Health & Education•Communication & Information•Money & Financial System•Products & Services

Structures and Society Moving Towards a Global Community As a Tapestry of People, Cultures

and Opportunities Yet To Be Fully Realized

VISION

Our Focus


THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY EVOLVINGSETTING THE SUPPORT FRAMEWORK IN PLACE

• 1990’s Global Transportation – 24hrs Anywhere FedX UPS• 1990’s Global Technology DOT COMS – Customers Worldwide in 48 Hrs• 1990’s Global Corporations – Transition to MNCs 70% of World’s Growth• 2000’s Global Financing – Moving Towards A Common Currency & Credit Laws• 2000’s Global Cities - 21st Century City -Nations – Now 60% World GDP• 2000’s Global Communications - Networks & Information – Without Borders• 2020’s Global Governments – Sub Global Regions, G-Tax, G-Regs,

G Currency, G Government….

A NEW WORLD COMMUNITYA NEW WORLD COMMUNITYTHE CURRENT FRONTIERTHE CURRENT FRONTIER

Handy Curve – Each New Idea Creates Change and Change Brings New Ideas, Some Good and Some Bad

HANDY CURVE

Global Volume


THE NEW WORLD

By Freedom

By Social Network Interconnect Relationships

One S

pecie

s

Man

y Orig

ins

By DNA – Lines

The Evolving Globe By Population Density

The New GLOBAL World

Order

By Trade Blocks

By Political Region Blocks Post WWII

By Religion

http://www.heritage.org/index/images/book/2014/in-2014-region-map-web-world.jpg

http://vincos.it/world-map-of-social-networks/


http://dnatribes.com/sample-results/dnatribes-global-survey-regional-affinities.pdf

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

http://joshuaproject.net/global_list?listtype=religions

http://joshuaproject.net/global_list?listtype=religions

http://www.heritage.org/index/images/book/2014/in-2014-region-map-web-world.jpg



http://www.dnatribes.com/populations.html


GLOBAL COMMUNITY

Source NaturalEarthData.com - Natural Earth is a public domain map dataset for the map in this slide which reflects Global down to the local level. Government Sovereign entities - http://kelsocartography.com/blog/?tag=patterson

PEOPL

E &

GOVERAN

CE

7.5 Billion Global Population End 2016ANNUAL CURRENT GROWTH RATE 1.11% per year = 83.22 million gain in 2015

Global Population Clock - http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

World GDP - Nominal: US$75.21 trillion (2016 est.)[1] WGDP by Purchase Power Value: PPP: US$119.1 trillion (2016 est.)[1] GDP per capita Nominal: US$7,178 PPP: US$12,700 (2012 est.)

LINK

http://kelsocartography.com/blog/?tag=patterson


http://cyberinfo.ndelchev.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/564afb0f-69d4-41fd-b154-56133719155a-original.png

http://cyberinfo.ndelchev.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/564afb0f-69d4-41fd-b154-56133719155a-original.png


FUNDING THE WORLD’S ECONOMY IN A TRANSITION


GLOBAL DEBT REACHES $109 TrillionDebt globally reached $109 trillion ( 4th QT 14’) with Public Sovereign Debt at $63 trillion / 51% of All debt

Governments added $33 Trillion in Debt since 07’ to pull their economies and Institutions out of recession .

Estimates are that Public debt Doubles by 2020 (3 yrs) to $110 trillion to Maintain the Global Growth Rate at Current 2 – 3 % “Creating the New Term Credit Driven Global Economy”

LIQUID

ITY

PUBLIC DEBT

WORLD PUBLIC DEBT CLOCKIndividual Country Current Debt Today http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

2015Global Public Debt by 2013 Reaches Over 50% of all Global Debt at $50 Trillion and Continued to Grow To $63 Trillion by 2017. The New Infrastructure model for recovery will take the debt past the $110 trillion projected by 2020

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock


FLIGHT FROM RISK – NOW FOR LONGTERM YIELDS

• 2015/2016 Capital’s Flight to Deepest Part of the Security Pool – United States, UK, Germany and New Global Mega and Super City Nation States

• HNWI (High Net worth Individuals), Sovereign Wealth Funds, Equity Funds (Captured Majority of New Public Debt and Placed it in R.E., Natural Resources and Risk Management assets)

– Defend Asset Values– Defend Against Currency Swings and Currency Wars– Manage Sovereign Debt Impacts– Leverage Population Move to MegaCities and Mega/ Super Cities as Global Players– Align To Multinational Corporations Centralized Investments– Moved to Acquire Global Natural Resources ie Africa, Brazil, Australia, Canada,

• 2017 Creating Global Infrastructure Projects with Long Term Bond Coupon Yields

GLOBAL MEGACITIES


R.E. INVESTMENTS2017 TOP 30 CITIES BUT LEVELING OFF

Source: JLW / Knight Frank

NYC

LONDON

TOKYO

LOS ANGELES

TOP 30 Global Cities Link JLL Global Real Estate Cities Index Link

http://www.jll.com/cities-research/Documents/cities_research/Comparison/cities-microsite/bar/Global-Top-30.html

http://www.jll.com/cities-research/Cities/benchmarking-and-indices


So If Real Estate Is Leveling Off and RecedingWHATS NEW AND BIG ON THE HORIZON

***Avoiding The Rick***

Infrastructure Related Surrounding Commercial Real Estate


HEAVY FOCUS SHIFTS TO INFRASTRUCTRE $57 Trillion With Long Term

Yield's & Coupons

Infrastructure How To Fund It - Economist

Look For Public/Private Partnerships with Asset Holdings and Revenue Streams ROI is High Plus secured revenue streams stable over long periods…Traditional Inflation Adjusted revenues as part of projects…Currency fluctuations though still an issue for shorter term investors and Sovereign Debt repayments can impact risk/reward outcomes….


FINDING INFRASTRUCTURELeveraging New Real Estate Opportunities

JUST A STARTING POINT

•Knight Frank 2016: Trains, Planes and Global Cities Report

•KPMG : Example Top Global100 Infrastructure Projects also How The World is changing Emerging Trends in Infrastructure worldwide and thinking related to it as part of social network

http://www.knightfrank.com/resources/global-cities/2016/all/global-cities-the-2016-report.pdf

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2014/11/infrastructure-100-world-markets-report-v3.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/kpmg/emerging-trends-in-infrastructure-2017


THINGS TO WATCH 2016 –2017

• There is Always (3) Economies in play at a real estate location; – The Local economy driven by vacancies, pricing and local supply and demand, – The Regional/Nat’l economy driven by policies, capital flows and competitive growth initiatives, – The Global economy which can create unforeseen waves of growth or loss of growth.

Current R.E. Drivers - Flight To Safety - Capital and People creating momentum in local and regional markets. Growth in key 1st Tier, 2nd Tier and in Some Tier 3 Global Cities. Now Leveling off with less opportunity. Market turning to Infrastructure so it may time to look at positioning iwhere the money is going or at least around it….

Watch and Track

• CURRENCY FLUNCTUATIONS and CURRENCY WARS• REAL INFLATION • SOVEREIGN DEBT IMPACTS ON SOCIAL BENEFIT PROGRAMS AND ABILITY TO PAYIn Today’s Global Economy Money can be transferred from one Country to Another and from Project to

Projects within minutes if not seconds. This new virtual world can create major shifts in economic and real estate environments that in past decades took a generation to change. Always have an Executable Exit Strategy Plan……..

One World

Currency


Real Estate Is Simple - RightPlay To Your Strengths – Create Value,

Manage risk – Have an Exit Plan

CAPITAL IN

VALUE ADDED

VALUE LOST

CAPITAL Out

YOU

You & Your Investors


Lets Get Lets Get StartedStarted

Who’s Who’s The Risk Management The Risk Management

Hero TodayHero TodayI’ll Get ItI’ll Get It

!!!!!!!!!!

Our EQUITY

Where Do We Invest Our Capital & That of Our Clients !!!!!

You & Your Clients

Sovereign Debt Impacts

Inflation Impacts MNCs Corporate

Impacts

Transparency By

Governments

What Is Our Exit Strategy

CURRENCY FLUCTATIONS


• United Nation – World Investment Report - Transnational Corporations & Transnational Investments General UN Library All Reports: http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_Investment_Report.aspx

• International Monetary Fund – World Economic Outlook & Financial Stability ReportsWorldwide Capital, Debt, GDP and Economic Performance http://www.imf.org/

World Economic Forum - The Global Competitiveness ReportsCompetitiveness of Individual countries - Report on Future Global Financial Systems

• Global Property Guide – Individual Country Current Real Estate Activity and StatisticsLocal RE Activity, Cost of RE Transactions, Values and Projected Trends 1 – 10 yrs Globallywww.globalpropertyguide.com

• Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute TM – SWF Annual Investment Reports, Individual SWFs, Location, Size, Portfolio, Policies and contactswww.swfinstitute.org http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/ http://www.swfinstitute.org/tag/Real-Assets/

• Global Recession and Recovery – Global Wealth Report $256 Trillion USD

• McKinsey Report on Global Cities - http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class

• CoreNet Global – Annual Corporate Investments and strategies www.corenetglobal.org

• Global Real Estate Investment Funds – http://www.reit.com/investing/investing-tools/global-funds

KEY GLOBAL RESEARCH RESOURCES KEY GLOBAL RESEARCH RESOURCES

http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_Investment_Report.aspx



http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR/index.htm

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR/index.htm

https://www.weforum.org/reports

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/

http://www.swfinstitute.org/

http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/

http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/

http://www.swfinstitute.org/tag/Real-Assets/

http://www.swfinstitute.org/tag/Real-Assets/

https://www.credit-suisse.com/us/en/about-us/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html?WT.i_short-url=%2Fgwr&WT.i_target-url=%2Fus%2Fen%2Fabout-us%2Fresearch%2Fresearch-institute%2Fglobal-wealth-report.html

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class




CONTACT INFORMATION

John ReardonReardon & Associates

LinkedIn: John Reardonhttps://www.linkedin.com/pub/john-reardon/13/a19/366

1112 Oakridge Dr., Suite 104 # 218Fort Collins, Colorado 80525Tel: 240-320-2415

Academic Personal Contact email:[email protected]/Fort Collins Colorado

Bio:Facchina Group of Companies – COO Development - $500 Mil/yr

Global Director/COO – Int’l Development Research Council - CoreNet Global – Member Firms managing 40 Billion sf Worldwide

Nevada Cabinet Secretary – CEO – State Economic Development Commission

Wyoming Cabinet Secretary – CEO –State Economic Development Commission

President/CEO Denver World Trade Center

Georgetown University - MSRE Corporate Real Estate Advisor / Guest Lecturer

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School MSRE Advisory Council/ Guest Lecturer

Colorado State University – Executive MBA Program Director

Adjunct and Guest Faculty on Global Real Estate and Capital Movements Worldwide

Over 4 decades of Business, Academic and Economic Development Work Throughout the U.S. and the World