geopolitical power of the gulf | amman institute
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On 15/12/2010 Dr. Bessma Momani gave Amman Institute staff a presentation entitled “Geopolitical Power of The Gulf” Dr.Bessma Momani is an associate professor in political science and history at the university Waterloo and senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance.TRANSCRIPT
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GEOPOLITICAL POWER OF THE GULF
Dr. Bessma MomaniAssociate Professor/ University Of Waterloo
Department of Political Science
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What explains the growing economic integration between the Gulf Arab counties and the Mashreq region (Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan)—specifically, Gulf investments
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the six GCC states current account surplus: $50 billion in 2003-2004;
$400 billion in 2007-2008 $47.4 billion in 2009; to
about $124.2bn in 2010
the GCC had $1.6 trillion (or 225 per cent of its GDP) to $2 trillion in foreign assets at the end of 2006 67 % public owned 33 % by private individuals
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LET ME CONTEXTUALIZE THIS.....
China:$1.1 trillion in foreign reserves 42 per cent of its GDP Is public owned Long term domestic absorption GCC only 40 million people
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WHERE DID GULF MONEY GO?
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Eco Reforms FDI problems Not just
structural Then oil prices
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WHY GULF INVESTMENT IN MASHREQ?
Push factors Out of US, because:
9/11; Dubai Ports; Sovereign Wealth Funds
Eco diversification Financialization SWFs
Vs. wasted 1970s Aware public Digital democracy Young; W. educated
Pull factors Structural eco reforms Deregulation;
privatization; market forces; FTA
‘neighbourhood effect’ Horizontal networks Arab money managers
Regional peace dividend
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FUTURE STUDY... But, what are the lessons for Jordan? What does this mean for the region? How to explain investor behaviour?
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Questions?