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Evening Roundup03 September 2020
A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
34/659-P, Civil Line Road,
Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Day So far
• Global equities advanced amid signs of global economic recovery and
expectation of further stimulus support from major economies. Major
equity indices across Asia to Europe continued gains, however, China’s
benchmark stock index slipped lower led by consumer firm’s stocks despite
regions service sector activity picked up for the fourth straight month.
Back home, commodities on MCX platform were seen under pressure,
mainly crude and Nickel. On currency front, dollar index seen steady,
marked third consecutive day’s gain.
• Precious metals slipped lower on recovery in US dollar coupled with rising
risk appetite owing to recent robust economic numbers. Gold in
international spot market fell near to one week low, while silver in the
same platform slipped around a percent. MCX precious metals too seen on
negative territory.
• Crude oil prices continued weakness as worries over falling US gasoline
demand and firmer dollar. Major benchmarks WTI and Brent slipped more
than 1.50 percent, while MCX Crude oil near month futures prices slipped
to near one month low. Meanwhile, Natural gas prices seen stabilizing
ahead of official inventory from US later today after volatile moves in last
few days.
• Base metals were broadly lower on easing supply worries. Industrial metals
on MCX platform slipped lower, led by nickel and copper. While, base
metal futures on Shanghai platform closed lower.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 19:30 IST
MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Last updated at 16:00 IST
GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES
RATIOS
Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious
Day CloseVol
Gold50776 -0.09 50964 50964 50600 50821 5791
Silver 65230 -0.84 65838 66346 64770 65784 84
Crude Oil 2997 -2.03 3060 3060 2991 3059 23061
Natural Gas 184.7 1.09 183 185.5 180.7 182.7 69006
Copper 518.1 -0.81 522.7 523.45 516 522.35 7780
Nickel 1129 -2.19 1149.8 1150.4 1119.9 1154.3 8614
Lead 152.25 -0.1 152.75 153.15 151.05 152.4 2270
Zinc 195.65 -0.46 197.8 197.8 193.8 196.55 5735
Aluminium 145.15 -0.31 145.85 146 144.7 145.6 784
Commodity Rate % Chg
Gold ($/oz)1932.563 -0.52
Silver (c/oz) 27.0122 -1.76
Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 40.72 -1.9
Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.497 0.44
SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51730 -0.54
SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 119150 -1.91
SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15700 -0.92
SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)20230 -0.39
SHFE Aluminium
(CNY/T) 14420 -0.83
Indices Rate % Chg
Dow Jones Fut 29062.0 -0.1
CAC**5114.4 1.64
DAX** 13396.6 1.16
Shanghai* 3385.0 -0.58
MSCI Asia Pacific index 174.2 0.267
Baltic Dry index 1445 -1.768
Dollar index 92.94 0.1
Ratio
5 Days Monthly 90 Days
Daily High Low High Low High Low
Gold Silver ratio77.84 77.98 75.35 84.79 72.88 111.95 72.88
Gold Crude ratio269.43 269.43 259.75 283.09 250.97 476.82 247.39
Lead Zinc ratio0.78 0.78 0.77 0.84 0.77 0.92 0.77
Lead Aluminium ratio1.05 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.02 1.12 1.00
77.84 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold
269.43 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold
0.78 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead
1.05 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead
ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, August 31, 2020
5:20 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 5.80% 1.90%
5:20 Japan Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) -1.70% 3.90%
6:30 China V High Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.0 51.2 51.1
6:30 China High Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.5 54.2
20:00 US Low Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug) -3
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
6:00 Japan Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 46.6
7:15 China Moderate Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.1 52.7 52.8
13:30 Euro High Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.7 51.7 51.7
14:30 Euro High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 0.20% 0.40%
14:30 Euro High CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.40%
14:30 Euro Moderate Unemployment Rate (Jul) 8.00% 7.80%
19:15 US Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.1 53.6
19:30 US Moderate Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul) 0.1% 1.00% -0.70%
19:30 US V High ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 56.0 54.5 54.2
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.360M -4.524M
14:30 Euro Moderate PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.50% 0.70%
14:30 Euro Moderate PPI (YoY) (Jul) -3.40% -3.70%
16:30 US Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -6.50%
17:45 US Moderate ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) 428K 900K 167K
19:30 US Moderate Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) 6.4% 6.00% 6.20%
20:00 US High Crude Oil Inventories -9.362M -1.887M -4.689M
20:00 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.676M -1.357M 1.388M
20:00 US High Gasoline Inventories -4.320M -3.036M -4.584M
20:00 US Moderate EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 1.10%
23:30 US Moderate Beige Book
Thursday, September 3, 2020
7:15 China Moderate Caixin Services PMI (Aug) 54.0 54.1
7:15 China Moderate Chinese Composite PMI (Aug) 54.1
14:30 Euro Moderate Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -1.3% 1.50% 5.70%
14:30 Euro Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 0.4% 3.30% 1.30%
17:00 US Low Challenger Job Cuts (Aug) 262.649K
18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 14.000M 14,535K
18:00 US Moderate Exports 158.25B
18:00 US Moderate Imports 208.95B
18:00 US High Initial Jobless Claims 950K 1,006K
18:00 US Moderate Trade Balance (Jul) -52.30B -50.70B
19:15 US Moderate Markit Composite PMI (Aug) 54.7 50.3
19:15 US Moderate Services PMI (Aug) 54.8 50
19:30 US Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 57 58.1
20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 34B 45B
Friday, September 4, 2020
18:00 US High Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug) 50K 26K
18:00 US V High Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 1,400K 1,763K
18:00 US High Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 1,250K 1,462K
18:00 US V High Unemployment Rate (Aug) 9.80% 10.20%
22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 180
22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 254
BULLION
GOLD M
MCX Oct
Intra Day
Near Term
Technical Levels
R3 53150/53430
R2 52830/52990
R1 51240/51630/52200
Turnaround 51060
S1 50600/50370
S2 50100
S3 49850
Technical Commentary
As long as prices hold the upside hurdle of 51060 may squeeze down prices
lower to 50600 then to 50370. But in this weak bias, recovery move above
51060 may push prices higher to 51240 / 51630.
Technical Levels
R3 75500/77400
R2 73300/74200
R1 70000/ 71500/72800
Turnaround 68400
S1 66200/65000
S2 64250/63900
S3 62500
Technical Commentary
Prices possibly to trade lower in the upcoming session with an immediate
objective of 66200 followed by 65000. However, rise above 68400 could
boost prices higher.
SILVER M
MCX Nov
Intra Day
Near Term
NATURAL GAS
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
CRUDEOIL
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
ENERGY
Technical Levels
R3 3310/3365/3410
R2 3190/3225/3260
R1 3120/3165
Turnaround 3055
S1 2940/2880
S2 2825
S3 2770/2690
Technical Commentary
Current feebleness of prices may persist towards the downside objective of
2940 then to 2880. However, reclaiming trades above 3055 could lift prices
higher.
Technical Levels
R3 209/213.40
R2 198/202.40/205.80
R1 188/190/193.80
Turnaround 179
S1 175
S2 171.80
S3 167/163
Technical Commentary
As long as prices hold the Bollinger middle band level of 179 could expect
prices to trade higher in the coming session towards the upside objective of
188 followed by 190. But direct fall below 179 may bid a long a liquidation
move.
NICKEL
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 548.50
R2 538.90/544.20
R1 526.70/531.50/536
Turnaround 521.60
S1 514.50/512.20
S2 507.60/504
S3 499.50
Technical Commentary
Intraday move largely to be downward with an immediate objective of
514.50 then to 512.20. On the flipside, rise above the immediate hurdle of
521.60 could lift prices higher.
Technical Levels
R3 1194
R2 1182
R1 1155/1163/1175
Turnaround 1142
S11132/1120/1116/11
08
S2 1096/1086/1070
S3 1062
Technical Commentary
If prices remained below the hindrance of 1142 could expect a corrective
move towards the downside objective of 1116 followed by 1108. But
retreating trades above 1142 could boost prices higher.
Copper
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
Zinc
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
Lead
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 206.40
R2 203.30/204.80
R1 198/199.50/200.80
Turnaround 196.80
S1 194.50/193.60
S2 192.20/191.50
S3 189.20
Technical Levels
R3 161.80
R2 159.20/160.40
R1 154.80/157/158.20
Turnaround 153.30
S1 151/150.30
S2 149.50
S3 148.90/147.50
Technical Commentary
Current weakness may continue towards the downside objective of 194.50
then to Bollinger lower band level of 193.60. But rise above 196.80 could lift
prices higher.
Technical Commentary
Weakness may persist towards the downside objective of 151 firstly then to
150.30 region. However, retreating trades above 153.30 could lift prices
higher.
Aluminium
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 150.30/152
R2 149.80
R1 147.50/149.10
Turnaround 146
S1 144/142.80/141.90
S2 140.60/138.70
S3 136
Technical Commentary
As prices broke the Bollinger middle band level of 145.30 could expect a
corrective downside move towards 144 followed by 142.80. On the flipside,
price recovery may be seen only above 146.
Buying
sentiment/
Bullish
Selling
sentiment/
Bearish
Neutral/
sideways
S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling
pressure.
R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter
buying pressure.
GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:
CERTIFICATION
I, Krishnaprasad N.B., employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby
certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all
of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the
recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be
further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.
GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained
within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the
rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.
Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this
report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity
or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in
this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original
publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained
herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Geojit Financial Services Limited and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the
analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from
any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment
under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors
should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional
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situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The
user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make
such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
Commodity/(ies) referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and
income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may
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The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is
recommended that an independent investment advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of
GFSL.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:
Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited
(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit
Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management
Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of
Insurance and MF Units). In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit Financial
Services Limited affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and we issue research reports /research
analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary
action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities.
In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also
provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:
1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:
GFSL confirms that:
It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity
futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.
Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:
He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,
and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.
2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:
During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from
any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.
3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:
It is affirmed that I,Krishna prasad N.B., employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation
of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the
report.
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity
futures.
Copyright in this report vests exclusively with GFSL
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