Examining Urban Decay in

PhiladelphiaMac Ferrick, Paige Geist, Will Dorfman

GEOG372

Defined as the process of a city falling into economic and social despair.

What is urban decay?

● Growth of the suburbs after World War II

● Movement of jobs outside of the city● Deindustrialization● White Flight/Redlining● War on Drugs and Subsequent Crime

Main causes of decay in the US

● Land area: 135 square miles● Population: 1,553,165● Average home value: $147,569● Median annual income: $37,016● Poverty Rate: 26.2%

Philadelphia County Key Figures

Source: US Census Bureau American Fact Finder (2013); Select Greater Philadelphia (2010)

● Philadelphia defines an area to be experiencing urban decay as meet at least one of the following criteria:o Unsafe, unsanitary and inadequate

conditions; economically or socially undesirable land use; and faulty street and lot layout

● Urban renewal projects indicate the presence of urban decay

Urban Decay in Philadelphia

● Urban renewal based on federal and state laws

● Decision Makers:o Philadelphia Redevelopment Authorityo Philadelphia City Planning Commissiono Philadelphia City Council & Mayoro United States Department of Housing and

Urban Development (HUD)● Determine areas for redevelopment,

prepare plans, and select developers

Redevelopment Process

● Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)o Purpose is to turn over vacant, foreclosed

properties into owner-occupied dwellingso Determined based on historical

foreclosure data, indications of predatory lending, and the impact of vacancies on surrounding home values

● Received $16.8 million in funding from HUD

Urban Renewal Programs

● Determine the underlying cause of socioeconomic challenges in Philadelphia County

● Determine if current redevelopment projects are targeting the correct areas

Research Purpose

● What is the correlation between home value and percent vacancies?

● What is the correlation between vacancies and homicides?

● Is urban decay widespread or is it concentrated in certain neighborhoods?

Key Questions

● Homicides● Home vacancy percentage per

census tract● Median Household Income● Poverty

Factors Considered

● Georeferencing census tracts● “Join” data (percent vacant and

median home value) to census tract file

● “Display XY Values” for homicides● Perform a Hot Spot Analysis to

present homicide data● Overlay areas for urban renewal

Methodology

Total number of homicides (2010): 403

● Homicide hotspots in North Philadelphia and section of Southwest Philadelphia

● Coldspots in Center City, Northeast Philadelphia, and Northwest Philadelphia

● Little correlation between hotspots and urban renewal areas

Findings

● Vacancies are concentrated in North Philadelphia and portions of West Philadelphia

● Fewest vacancies are found in Northeast Philadelphia

● Outlier in Northeast Philadelphia● Stronger correlation between vacancy

percentage and urban renewal areas

Findings

● Highest home values concentrated in Center City and Northwest Philadelphia

● Lowest home values are found in North Philadelphia and West Philadelphia

● Little correlation between home value and urban renewal

Findings

● Poverty concentrated in North Philadelphia and West Philadelphia

● Somewhat strong correlation between poverty and urban renewal areas

● Strong correlation between homicide hotspot and poverty, especially in North Philadelphia

Findings

● Access to data● Various outliers● Presence of universities (UPenn,

Drexel)● Measurement criteria into the

effectiveness of urban renewal programs

Limitations

● Urban renewal project are partially targeting the right areas

● There are areas that are both within and outside of urban renewal zones that are still suffering the consequences of urban decay

● Based on our findings, the areas marked for urban renewal need to be reexamined to take into account factors other than the criteria determined by the city

Conclusions

● Look at correlation between decay and other crimes, especially drug-related crimes

● Look at the lasting impact of redlining using historical data

● Conduct a longitudinal study to see how decay has evolved over time

Possible Further Analysis

● http://www.phila.gov/CityPlanning/plans/communityplans/Pages/BlightandRedevelopmentReports.aspx● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml● http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia.com/regional-data/county-data/philadelphia/● http://www.opendataphilly.org/opendata/resource/34/redevelopment-certified-areas/● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html

Sources