geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in southeast asia
TRANSCRIPT
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7/30/2019 Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia
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Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Geographic determinants of
rice self-sufficiency in
Southeast Asia
David Dawe, FAO
IRRI, 6 September 2013
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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 2Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Rice trade status, 1904 2009
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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 3Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
The importance of geography
Consistent importers are all islands or peninsulas. This
phenomenon extends beyond SE Asia to Japan, Korea
and Sri Lanka.
Consistent exporters are all on the mainland, with
dominant river deltas that provide ample water and flat
land.
Bangladesh is a bit of an exception to the rule, as it is onthe mainland but is a (small) net importer.
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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 4Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
The importance of geography
This pattern is also true within countries. Southern
Thailand (a peninsula) imports rice from the rest of the
country, while Central Luzon (fed by the Pampanga
River) exports rice to Manila.
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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 5Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency is determined by both supply and
demand.
But importers have the highest levels of wheatconsumption. Thus, the exporters have not achieved
self-sufficiency by eating less rice their advantage
comes from producing more rice.
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Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 6Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Wheat and rice consumption per capita
Rice importers eat more wheat
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7/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 7Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Rice production (paddy terms) per person, ASEAN
Mainland countries produce more rice
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8/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 8Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Why is rice production per person low inthe importing countries?
Prod = rice production
POP = population
RA = rice area (harvested)
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9/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 9Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Rice area harvested per person, ASEAN
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10/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 10Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Rice yields, ASEAN
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11/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 11Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Differences in rice production per person acrosscountries are mostly determined by differences in rice
area harvested per person, not differences in yield.
A regression of Prod/Pop on RA/Pop gives an R2 of0.78, while a regression of Prod/Pop on Prod/RA gives
an R2 of just 0.03.
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12/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 12Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Why do different countries have different rice areaharvested per person?
RA = rice area (harvested)
POP = Population
TCA = total crop area (harvested)
AA = agricultural area
LA = land area
( S )
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13/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 13Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
A i lt l D l t E i Di i i (ESA)
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14/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 14Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
The R2 of a regression of RA/POP on RA/TCA is 0.74,
while the R2 of a regression of RA/POP on each of the
other three variables individually never reaches more
than 0.11. Even regressing RA/POP on the other threevariables jointly gives a negative adjusted R2 (compared
to an adjusted R2 of 0.70 for RA/TCA).
Thus, rice area harvested per person is determined
primarily by rices share in total cropped area.
A i lt l D l t E i Di i i (ESA)
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15/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 15Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Average nominal domestic paddy prices, farm level, 1991-2006
A i lt l D l t E i Di i i (ESA)
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16/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 16Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Rice prod/person vs. share of crop area devoted to rice
A i lt l D l t E i Di i i (ESA)
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17/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 17Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Adoption rates of modern varieties, 1966 - 1997
How did the Philippines achieve
self-sufficiency in the 1980s?
Source of raw data: IRRI
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
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18/19Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 18Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Consequences of the drive to self-sufficiency Domestic rice prices in importing countries tend to be
higher than in exporting countries, due to trade
restrictions.
Higher domestic prices, coupled with a shortage of land
suitable for growing rice, has led to more irrigation and
higher yields in the rice-importing countries.
Higher domestic prices have encouraged dietarydiversification to wheat.
Higher domestic prices lead to higher poverty rates and
greater malnutrition (trade-off between SS and food
security).
Agricultural Development Economics Division
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19/19Los Baos Philippines 6 September 2013 19R i l Offi f A i d th P ifi
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural Development Economics Division
Thank you for your kind
attention