GEODEMOGRAPHYGEODEMOGRAPHY

the power of numbersthe power of numbers

We are all drops in the ocean …We are all drops in the ocean …

If you shook hands with people, night and If you shook hands with people, night and day, for the rest of your life you could only day, for the rest of your life you could only meet about 1/5 of the people on the planet meet about 1/5 of the people on the planet (assuming handshakes last 2 seconds)(assuming handshakes last 2 seconds)

In short, get a different job!In short, get a different job!

What’s wrong with the table at the left?

Can this be right?

Global Population DistributionGlobal Population Distribution

Sparse populationsSparse populations

Too cold, too dry, too rocky, etc.Too cold, too dry, too rocky, etc.

Sparse rural settlement: Iceland

Sparse rural settlement: Iceland

Dense populationsDense populations

Usually in areas with good soils, ample Usually in areas with good soils, ample to high rainfall, and water accessto high rainfall, and water access

May be urban or ruralMay be urban or rural

Lucian Niemeyer, http://www.bettadreams.com/

http://rose.ruru.ne.jp/pollux/natsu/natsuTop2.htm

Dense urban settlement

Dense rural settlement (rice paddy regions)

How useful is a map of How useful is a map of birthrate?birthrate?

Not veryNot very

Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate

What can we learn from TFR? What can’t we learn from TFR?

Births and Deaths per minuteBirths and Deaths per minute Russia: Russia: 3 births - 4 deaths = 3 births - 4 deaths = -1 -1 Japan: Japan: 2 births - 2 deaths = 2 births - 2 deaths = 0 0 U.K.: U.K.: 1 birth - 1 death = 1 birth - 1 death = 0 0 U.S.: U.S.: 8 births - 4 deaths = 8 births - 4 deaths = 4 4 Nigeria: Nigeria: 8 births - 3 deaths = 8 births - 3 deaths = 5 5 Pakistan: 10 births - 3 deaths = Pakistan: 10 births - 3 deaths = 7 7 China: China: 38 births - 16 deaths = 38 births - 16 deaths = 2222 India: India: 48 births - 17 deaths = 48 births - 17 deaths = 3131

What would help us compare these statistics?

Annual Natural Change of Annual Natural Change of Population Population

What can we learn from this map? What can’t we learn?

Is Global Population Growth a Is Global Population Growth a Problem?Problem?

““No, the world has more than enough No, the world has more than enough resources if they are divided fairly”resources if they are divided fairly” The planet can physically support more than The planet can physically support more than

10 billion people as long as they all share 10 billion people as long as they all share nicely.nicely.

Assumptions: Assumptions: People are willing to share the resources they People are willing to share the resources they

have, especially with strangers.have, especially with strangers. an optimistic view!an optimistic view!

Let’s Get Real …Let’s Get Real …

Whereas the U.S. currently uses 25% of the Whereas the U.S. currently uses 25% of the world’s resources …world’s resources …

And whereas the other 95% of the world would And whereas the other 95% of the world would have to consume something like 5 times as have to consume something like 5 times as much as they do now in order to equal our level,much as they do now in order to equal our level,

And whereas their definition of an “adequate” And whereas their definition of an “adequate” standard of living is not far below our own …standard of living is not far below our own …

The current growth of population is a problem.The current growth of population is a problem.

Whose Problem is it?Whose Problem is it? If the poor countries develop over the next century If the poor countries develop over the next century

to our levels of resource consumption, then the to our levels of resource consumption, then the total rate of resource exhaustion, ecological total rate of resource exhaustion, ecological disruption, and pollution is about 10 times higher disruption, and pollution is about 10 times higher than today.than today.

If the poor countries If the poor countries do notdo not develop over the next develop over the next century but continue to double in population every century but continue to double in population every four decades, then we will have to deal with four decades, then we will have to deal with massive social unrest stemming from abject massive social unrest stemming from abject poverty, waves of poor immigrants, desperate poverty, waves of poor immigrants, desperate refugees, epidemics, and political chaos.refugees, epidemics, and political chaos.

It’s our problem as much as it’s “their” problemIt’s our problem as much as it’s “their” problem

Current Migration FlowsCurrent Migration Flows

Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate

Zone of economic insecurity

Why do insecure people have more Why do insecure people have more children?children?

Often they are ruralOften they are rural They seldom have access to the They seldom have access to the

equivalent of welfare, social security, equivalent of welfare, social security, Medicare, and MedicaidMedicare, and Medicaid

Often they are members of oppressed Often they are members of oppressed ethnic groupsethnic groups

Their world is quite different from the Their world is quite different from the world we live in (religion, sex roles, world we live in (religion, sex roles, economy, age roles, pass-times, etc.)economy, age roles, pass-times, etc.)

ContraceptionContraception

What combination of factors might cause this pattern?

Consequences of these Consequences of these considerations:considerations:

Children are useful in agricultural economies Children are useful in agricultural economies starting around 8 yrs. oldstarting around 8 yrs. old

When children (at least male children) grow up When children (at least male children) grow up they are expected to support their parents they are expected to support their parents

Leaders in oppressed ethnic groups often Leaders in oppressed ethnic groups often advocate large families because they advocate large families because they recognize the power of numbers (a minority recognize the power of numbers (a minority that grows enough will no longer be a minority)that grows enough will no longer be a minority)

What are the consequences?What are the consequences?

People in many poor capitalist countries are People in many poor capitalist countries are faced with a highly uncertain futurefaced with a highly uncertain future Periodic food shortagesPeriodic food shortages Lack of employmentLack of employment Political instability and inadequate policingPolitical instability and inadequate policing Diseases caused by lack of adequate sanitationDiseases caused by lack of adequate sanitation Diseases caused by industrial pollutionDiseases caused by industrial pollution Lack of health careLack of health care

They “insure” themselves by having more They “insure” themselves by having more children than we consider “sensible”children than we consider “sensible”

At the individual level, their actions are sensibleAt the individual level, their actions are sensible

What is our contribution to the What is our contribution to the problem?problem?

Europeans & Americans have believed they Europeans & Americans have believed they could make a profit could make a profit andand help people in poor help people in poor countries (developing regions), but profit-making countries (developing regions), but profit-making has been the primary objective driving policyhas been the primary objective driving policy exploitation causes social disruption, which leads to exploitation causes social disruption, which leads to

insecurity of families and individuals, which in turn insecurity of families and individuals, which in turn leads to people having more childrenleads to people having more children

During the Cold War, US policy centered on suppressing During the Cold War, US policy centered on suppressing Communism and the U.S. supported those people most Communism and the U.S. supported those people most interested in foreign economic ties: large land owners interested in foreign economic ties: large land owners and members of aristocratic familiesand members of aristocratic families

These “leaders” were seldom interested in social programs to These “leaders” were seldom interested in social programs to alleviate poverty and increase the security or the rights of the alleviate poverty and increase the security or the rights of the poorpoor

Population pyramidsPopulation pyramids

What they are and what they can What they are and what they can tell us about society & culture in tell us about society & culture in

different placesdifferent places

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Some Gallic InspirationSome Gallic Inspiration

““It is old age, rather than death, that is to It is old age, rather than death, that is to be contrasted with life. Old age is life's be contrasted with life. Old age is life's parody, whereas death transforms life into parody, whereas death transforms life into a destiny: in a way it preserves it by giving a destiny: in a way it preserves it by giving it the absolute dimension.” it the absolute dimension.” Simone De Beauvoir Simone De Beauvoir

Average AgeAverage Age

Why are the Europeans so old? Why are the Africans so young?

50,000,000

Missing girls

Is the child in the poster (promoting China’s one-child policy) a boy or a girl?

Male-Female RatioMale-Female Ratio

What might cause a surplus of males or females somewhere?

Females are less than 50% in Females are less than 50% in some countries because:some countries because:

Where girls are fewer it is usually because of:Where girls are fewer it is usually because of: Selective abortionSelective abortion InfanticideInfanticide Deliberate neglectDeliberate neglect Favoring boys nutritionallyFavoring boys nutritionally

Also, women’s natural longevity is negated byAlso, women’s natural longevity is negated by Early childbirthEarly childbirth Frequent childbirthFrequent childbirth Lack of obstetric careLack of obstetric care

What about Australia’s Northern Territory?What about Australia’s Northern Territory?

Average Marriage Age for WomenAverage Marriage Age for Women

Japan: Japan: 2626

U.S.: U.S.: 2525

Mali & NigerMali & Niger 1616

Hausa people living in Nigeria and NigerHausa people living in Nigeria and Niger 10-1210-12

What impact do you think marriage What impact do you think marriage age has:age has:

On infant mortality?On infant mortality? On family size?On family size? On women’s status in society?On women’s status in society? On women’s educational level?On women’s educational level? On health and disease levels?On health and disease levels?

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

If you could do one thing to reduce infant mortality what would it be?

Education of WomenEducation of Women

Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by improving Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by improving the effectiveness of birth controlthe effectiveness of birth control

Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by reducing Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by reducing the need to have a boy as “insurance” against poverty in the need to have a boy as “insurance” against poverty in old ageold age

Lowers maternal mortality rates (and thus improves child Lowers maternal mortality rates (and thus improves child care) by delaying the onset of childbearing care) by delaying the onset of childbearing

Lowers maternal mortality making it easier for women to Lowers maternal mortality making it easier for women to leave abusive and/or promiscuous husbands (nutrition, leave abusive and/or promiscuous husbands (nutrition, child care, and AIDS diffusion are affected)child care, and AIDS diffusion are affected)

Lowers infant mortality Lowers infant mortality andand maternal mortality by maternal mortality by improving women’s ability to access a wide range of improving women’s ability to access a wide range of information on medicine, hygiene, and nutritioninformation on medicine, hygiene, and nutrition

ContraceptionContraception

Muslim countries have low contraception rates but do not have high HIV infection rates. Why?

What would you predict about AIDS in Thailand?

New AIDS Cases per yearNew AIDS Cases per year

““Mexico City Policy”Mexico City Policy”

No US funds (USAID) are given to NGOs No US funds (USAID) are given to NGOs operating in foreign countries if they use operating in foreign countries if they use anyany funds (even non-US funds) to provide funds (even non-US funds) to provide abortions abortions (excluding cases of rape, incest, & medical (excluding cases of rape, incest, & medical

emergencies),emergencies), to counsel about abortion, or to to counsel about abortion, or to lobby to keep abortion legal in their lobby to keep abortion legal in their country.country.

USAID does support provision of USAID does support provision of contraceptioncontraception

The Role of DiseaseThe Role of Disease

Disease’s role is not always predictableDisease’s role is not always predictable Often people’s response to epidemic Often people’s response to epidemic

disease is to “insure” themselves by disease is to “insure” themselves by having more childrenhaving more children

For example, although the HIV infection For example, although the HIV infection rate in some African countries is more rate in some African countries is more than one in three, the African population is than one in three, the African population is expected to double in 40 years.expected to double in 40 years.

The role of social conflict and The role of social conflict and oppressionoppression

People in oppressed minorities nearly People in oppressed minorities nearly always recognize that they would not be always recognize that they would not be oppressed if they were not a minority.oppressed if they were not a minority.

Solution?Solution? Have lots of kids!Have lots of kids!

Quebec’s “Revenge of the Cradles” Quebec’s “Revenge of the Cradles” (La Revanche des Berceaux)(La Revanche des Berceaux)

Catholic Church saw numbers as the key to survivalCatholic Church saw numbers as the key to survival Strategy called “la survivance”Strategy called “la survivance” Ended when three things changed (1960s): Ended when three things changed (1960s):

Francophones got more power in Federal governmentFrancophones got more power in Federal government Catholic Church lost power in QuebecCatholic Church lost power in Quebec Birth rate plummetedBirth rate plummeted

PalestiniansPalestinians Gaza Strip’s population will quadruple to 4.8 Gaza Strip’s population will quadruple to 4.8

million by 2050, West Bank is growing almost as million by 2050, West Bank is growing almost as fastfast

Palestinians will outnumber Israelis by 2036Palestinians will outnumber Israelis by 2036 Considering lack of jobs and lack of arable land, Considering lack of jobs and lack of arable land,

this will create massive dependency on foreign aid this will create massive dependency on foreign aid unless these areas somehow become booming unless these areas somehow become booming industrial centers like Hong Kong or Singaporeindustrial centers like Hong Kong or Singapore

Children growing up with no hope of leading a Children growing up with no hope of leading a happy life are coached to die a martyr’s deathhappy life are coached to die a martyr’s death

When will this unsustainable situation change?When will this unsustainable situation change?

Role of religionRole of religion

Lays down standards pertaining to Lays down standards pertaining to reproduction, but people respond to these reproduction, but people respond to these standards in complex ways…standards in complex ways…

Catholics don’t always listen to Catholics don’t always listen to the Popethe Pope

Political Political conditions were conditions were more important more important than religious than religious factors in factors in shaping the shaping the demographic demographic pattern in pattern in Quebec.Quebec.

Three Three guesses guesses what country what country the town of the town of “Condom” is “Condom” is found in …found in …

Onset of decline in TFROnset of decline in TFR

Condom

Actually, the name appears to have nothing to do with the town, but the map does have something to do with birth control

The role of economics

The Role of NutritionThe Role of Nutrition

““I live on good soup, not on fine words.” I live on good soup, not on fine words.” Molière Molière

The Role of NutritionThe Role of Nutrition

Does vegetarianism lead to protein deficits?

What does?

SUMMARYSUMMARY

To get a rounded picture of a place, many different To get a rounded picture of a place, many different measures of population need to be understood: total measures of population need to be understood: total numbers, birth rate, death rate, TFR, natural increase numbers, birth rate, death rate, TFR, natural increase and distributionand distribution

What determines the population growth rate is not What determines the population growth rate is not always self-evident: includes many culture traits: political always self-evident: includes many culture traits: political culture, nutrition, ideas about gender and sexuality, culture, nutrition, ideas about gender and sexuality, access to birth control technologies, geopolitical access to birth control technologies, geopolitical conflicts, internal social conflicts, ethnic relations, and conflicts, internal social conflicts, ethnic relations, and overall level of securityoverall level of security

In short, we must be cautious to jump to conclusions In short, we must be cautious to jump to conclusions about population dynamics based on our ethnocentric about population dynamics based on our ethnocentric assumptionsassumptions