genomicprediconinplantbreeding - alphagenes · 226 240 244 248 254 54 231 63 238 236 195 235 222...
TRANSCRIPT
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Genomic predic,on in plant breeding and NGS data
John Hickey CIMMYT / The Roslin Ins5tute
Susanne Dreisigacker, Jose Crossa, Gregor Gorjanc
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Outline
• Two components to talk – Genomic selec5on in plant breeding programs – Low-‐coverage sequence data for genomic selec5on
• Overarching thought – Animal breeding has been successful in the adop5on of genomic selec5on because the genotyping plaLorm was not a barrier
– Animal breeders used SNP chips and imputa5on – It makes sense for animal breeders to transi5on to low-‐coverage data now, but infrastructure needs to be developed
– Plant breeders are focused on low-‐coverage from the start – Major barrier to progress and costs much more
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Genomic selec,on in plant breeding programs in a nutshell
• Tool for es5ma5ng breeding values – Exploits correla5on structure on the genome – Can cost as liQle as $11 per individual
• Four roles for GS – Choosing parents – Recurrent selec5on of early genera5on material – Reducing cost of preliminary yield trials – Extra opportuni5es such as more widespread selec5on for HTM traits
• Two ways of doing GS have different costs and benefits – Linkage informa5on (Correla5on within family) – Linkage disequilibrium informa5on (Correla5on within popula5on)
• Four most important things to get right – Genotyping pla9orm (One aspect) – Training popula,on design – Breeding program design – Overall cost/benefit to breeder
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Rela5onships drive the accuracy of genomic selec5on (and size of training set)
R² = 0.96203
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Accuracy of G
EBV
Mean of the Top Ten Rela,onships
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Our hypothesis
• That GS will be useful for recurrent selec5on of F2 material
• Ini5ated a simula5on – Two approaches
• Linkage based – Short term – Low marker density and phenotype number – Limited rela5onship distance for accuracy
• LD based – Long term – High marker density and phenotype number – Much less limited rela5onship distance for accuracy
• Ini5ated two field experiments
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One proposed model for early cycle GS
• Make cross and generate F2 (e.g. 400)
• Select a number of these at random (e.g. 50) – Genotype – Phenotype (By grandprogeny tes5ng – bit weird but keeps balance) – Train predic5on model
• Genotype remaining F2 – Predict breeding values on the basis of predic5on model
• Intercross the best 10% of all F2 (Recurrent selec5on) – How many rounds of intercrossing?
• 200 markers probably sufficient – More with more intercrossing
• Problem with this approach – Time taken to collect phenotypes – Extra phenotyping
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Alterna,ve proposed model for early cycle GS
• Make cross and generate F2 (e.g. 400)
• Train predic5on model from last years phenotypes/Other families
• Genotype all F2 – Predict breeding values on the basis of predic5on model
• Intercross the best 10% – How many rounds of intercrossing?
• 200 markers not sufficient
• Problem with this approach – Phenotypes need to be from related BP-‐families – Marker density needs to be higher (Imputa5on)
• Benefit of this approach – No 5me penalty – Can use other phenotypes (e.g. preliminary yield trials)
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Unknown ques,ons
• Which design is beQer?
• How many F2 phenotyped?
• What marker density / marker plaLorm?
• Can F2 phenotypes from other bi-‐parental popula5ons be used? – What marker density makes this work? – How related do these bi-‐parental popula5ons need to be?
• Can F4/F6/F10 yield trials from other bi-‐parental families be used? – Ques5ons the same as above
• What about G by E?
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This range of rela,onships are typical in a breeding program
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Other aspects of simula,on
• F2 phenotypes are actually the mean of their F2:3*Tester grandprogeny
• Trait with a heritability of 0.5 for plot mean (3 plots)
• Addi5ve gene5c effects sampled from a normal distribu5on
• 10,000 QTL (e.g. Grain Yield)
• Data analyzed with ridge regression
• 9 different marker densi5es
• 9 different numbers of phenotypes
• 17 different levels of rela5onships
• Accuracy of GEBV measured as the correla5on between GEBV and TBV
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Train and predict in BP-‐X
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Train in BP-‐P Predict in BP-‐X
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Train in BP-‐G Predict in BP-‐X
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Train in BP-‐U Predict in BP-‐X
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Train in BP-‐M Predict in BP-‐X
• (a) 4P + 8G + 0U (b) 4P + 0G + 40U (c) 0P + 8G + 40U (d) 4P + 8G + 40U
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What the modeling tells us • GS for early genera5on material can be accurate
• Two approaches work – 200 markers with 50 phenotypes in BP-‐X – 10,000 markers with 2,500 to 25,000 phenotypes in BP-‐M – Do not need more than 10,000 markers
• Approach 1 – High cost per selec5on decision – Low persistency – Takes 5me – Good for ini5al use and proof of concept
• Approach 2 – High overall cost – Low cost per selec5on decision – High persistency and good for intercrossing – No 5me wasted – Good for long term rou5ne applica5on
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Next steps
• Field experiment to validate
• Extend to other heritability's, traits, species
• Collect phenotypes at F6 instead
• Op5mize intercrossing/recurrent selec5on
• Low cost genotyping based on imputa5on – Accuracy does not maQer if you don’t have enough selec5on
candidates – We have souware and a strategy to make this work at between $11
and $22 (200,000 individuals completed)
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Long and short term implementa,on of genomic selec,on in plant breeding programs
• Short term – We want to use linkage based predic5ons locally
• Long term – We want to use linkage disequilibrium based predic5ons across the whole breeding program
• Linkage based predic5ons – Have low cost to generate but also have a low value
• Linkage disequilibrium based predic5ons – Have a high cost to generate but a high value
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Conclusions
• Predic5ons can be done on the basis of linkage or linkage disequilibrium
• Different numbers of markers and phenotypes needed
• Different costs/uses/persistency of accuracy
• Field experiments can cost as liQle as $30000
• Large field experiments can be built up incrementally
• In the future genomic selec5on will be based on linkage disequilibrium using training sets with 10,000 to 20,000 phenotypes
• Imputa5on is the key to making this work for large numbers of selec5on candidates ($11 -‐ $21)
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Low coverage data
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Low-‐coverage sequence data for genomic selec,on
• Simulated data – CaQle and plants
• CaQle simula5on – Coalescent simulator to generate historical events – Final genera5on has Ne of 100 – Drop haplotypes through pedigree
• 6 genera5ons • 1000 animals per genera5on
– 4 SNP densi5es • 3k, 10k, 60k, 300k
– Simple GBS data simulated -‐> 1-‐(2/2x) – Trait
• h2 = 0.35 • 10,000 QTL addi5ve effects from normal distribu5on
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Simplis,c view on such data
• Probability to call heterozygote if true state is heterozygous – #possible events=2x – two events give only homozygotes (00*00 and 11*11)
𝑃𝑟(𝐻𝑜𝑚)=2/2𝑥
– the rest are heterozygotes 𝑃𝑟(𝐻𝑒𝑡)=1−(2/2𝑥)
𝒙 1 2 3 4 5 10 𝑃𝑟(𝐻𝑒𝑡) 0.000 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.998
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Analysis
• Train: – 1000 phenotypes from genera5on 5 – 1000 genotypes from genera5on 5 (various x)
• Predict: – 500 genotypes from genera5on 6 (various x)
• Ridge regression • Measure accuracy = Correla5on(gEBV, TBV)
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Results (a series of graphs)
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Four densi,es
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Density 3K / Coverage
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Density and Coverage
3K 10K
60K 300K
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Plant GBS results (1k, 10k, 100k)
!1!
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Conclusions
• GBS data seems to be promising!
• More important to have higher X in predic,on than in training – Unfortunate and contradic5ng
• GBS works be\er with denser marker panels – recover lost informa5on with more markers
• Evalua,on of different training sizes in the pipeline – can we expect major boost for low X and large training popula5on?
• Imputa,on
• Prac,cal use – Choice, infrastructure not in place – Hidden costs – Results not good – Classical SNP Easier
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Classical SNP chips and imputa,on
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Classical SNP chips and genotype imputa,on
• Genotype parents at high density
• Offspring at low density
• Impute
• Current costs = $22
• Op5miza5on can reduce this to $11
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The cost and accuracy of sensible strategies
nSires = 480 nDams = 11884 nCandidates = 100000
60k chip = $120 6k chip = $48 3k chip = $35 384 chip = $20
Scenarios Other MGS + PGS MGD + PGD Sire Dam Candidates Individual cost Accuracy of Imputation R2
SC1 60k 60k 0 60k 0 384 ! 0.878 SC2 60k 60k 384 60k 384 384 $20.58 0.929 SC3 60k 60k 3k 60k 3k 384 $24.74 0.950 SC4 60k 60k 6k 60k 6k 384 $26.28 0.944 SC5 60k 60k 60k 60k 60k 384 $34.84 0.964 SC6 60k 60k 0 60k 0 3k ! 0.968 SC7 60k 60k 384 60k 384 3k ! 0.972 SC8 60k 60k 3k 60k 3k 3k $35.58 0.984 SC9 60k 60k 6k 60k 6k 3k $41.28 0.983 SC10 60k 60k 60k 60k 60k 3k $49.84 0.993 SC11 60k 60k 0 60k 0 6k ! 0.982 SC12 60k 60k 384 60k 384 6k ! 0.983 SC13 60k 60k 3k 60k 3k 6k ! 0.986 SC14 60k 60k 6k 60k 6k 6k $48.58 0.991 SC15 60k 60k 60k 60k 60k 6k $62.84 0.996 SC16 60k 60k 60k 60k 60k 60k $120.00 1.000
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Effect of imputa5on on GEBV accuracy
Results#:#gEBV#accuracy#• Calculate'gEBV'using'single^stage'evaluaNon1'
• Compare'gEBV'from'full'dense'genotyping'to'gEBV'from'low^density'genotyping/imputaNon'
N HD Geno.
Genotyping Scenario Imputed gEBV
Accuracy
Other PGS+MGS
PGD+MGD Sire Dam Progeny 450 3k 6k
S1 2519 H H H H H L 0.94 0.97 0.97 S2 2344 H 0 0 H H L 0.89 0.95 0.96 S3 2318 H H 0 H 0 L 0.87 0.92 0.93 S4 2318 H H L H L L 0.90 0.96 0.97 S1_r 323 0 H H H H L 0.79 0.81 0.80 S2_r 148 0 0 0 H H L 0.71 0.73 0.71 S3_r 122 0 H 0 H 0 L 0.69 0.76 0.75 S4_r 122 0 H L H L L 0.75 0.80 0.80 !"! 1Aguilar'et'al.','2009'
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Acknowledgements • CIMMYT
– Jose Crossa – Susanne Dreisigacker – Sarah Hearne – Gregor Gorjanc – Janez Jenko – Seeds of Discovery, CRP Wheat, CRP Maize
• Aviagen – Andreas Kranis
• Genus – MaQhew Cleveland
• University of New England – Julius van der Werf – Brian Kinghorn – Bruce Tier