The main task of modernizing the post-Soviet countries.

Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were faced with the necessity of change

(1) single-party regimes - competitive democracy, (2) of the planning system in the

economy - market mechanisms, and (3) imperial unit - the nation state. The main

problem of modernization - the simultaneity of political, economic and social

transformation.

fork political modernization - three ways of development:

- Establishing the foundations of western democracy, the most consistent

course of reform, a focus on the European community - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.

- roll back to previous positions, strengthening of authoritarian or

authoritarian-democratic tendencies - Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan.

- Vibrating "democratic regimes: the balance between authoritarian

tendencies and a desire for democratic values - Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and

Moldova. As shown by the results of parliamentary elections in Ukraine and

Kyrgyzstan, the political regimes are not enjoy political stability, but adhere to the

norms and requirements of international institutions in forming governments,

ensuring political pluralism and freedom of political choice, not restricting

freedom of speech, mass marches and rallies of citizens, not shutting down non-

state and opposition media.

Speaking about the prospects of the CIS, should not forget that the process

of modernizing political systems of neighboring states are in a mode different

speeds.

If Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are

focused on the traditional political culture, which largely guarantees the stability of

these states in the coming years, then states like Belarus or Ukraine will certainly

follow the path of modernization and convergence of these countries with the EU

will inevitably .

For experts it is no secret that the Islamist movements of various kinds are

able to organize in Central Asia rather stable structures that have the support of the

local population that can not always be said of governments. Especially troubling

is infiltration of Islamist movements and attitudes on the territory of the Ferghana

Valley, which has become in recent years in the region of poverty, instability and

Islamic radicalism. But in other regions of Central Asia, Islamists have made great

strides.

In all the countries of Central Asia a process of democratic transformation

has a special character. Is to allocate at least three key features of transformation:

1. The transformation process is based on ethnicity. The revival of national

identity in the region was due to non-indigenous population. As a result, the

majority of citizens - ethnic Slavs - emigrated and still continues to leave Central

Asia. In addition to the civil war in Tajikistan, the main causes of emigration are

discontent with steps to improve the status of national language to the state and

concern that the Russian minority in this case can be put at a disadvantage.

According to official statistics, the population of Kazakhstan is constantly

decreasing as a result of emigration exceeded immigration. For the I half of 2000

amounted to a net emigration of 53,239 people compared to 45,491 people during

the same period in 1999. More than half of immigrants - ethnic Russian. A similar

phenomenon occurs in all countries of the subregion. The share of the Russian

population, which does not belong to the main ethnic group in Kyrgyzstan, down

from 8% in 1989 to 3% in 2000. From Tajikistan has left more than 75% of such

residents, and currently is a minority of about 2.7%. Leaving the country citizens

are taken away, along with a knowledge and management experience. With respect

to institutional reform, policy, focusing on ethnicity and affects the human

resource capacity in public administration.

Today, Russian-speaking population expelled from the higher management

level the political process in all five countries. Thus, emigration indirectly affects

the implementation of measures for economic stabilization and institutional

development.

2. The second important feature that slows the development of systems of

democratic institutions, is traditionally existing clan structure of societies in

Central Asia, which is fully affect policy-making process in these countries.

Historically, all the peoples of Central Asia are divided into clans, which are a

territorial gang. In this regard, the political status quo in any country in Central

Asia is a reflection of the balance of power and struggle between clans, which have

been established at a particular time. To maintain political stability is very

important to maintain this balance. Even under the Soviet regime in communist

government bodies observed the distribution of power between the clans.

Situation in contemporary Central Asia can not be explained adequately

without taking this phenomenon into account. Change the clan structure that serves

as the basis for the ruling elite, is far more difficult task than institutional reform.

Very often, modern and semi-democratic system of government is only a

"thin shell" clan power structure. This phenomenon is not new, and it is not a

specific feature of Central Asia.

3. Third feature that is important for understanding the political realities of

Central Asia is a significant disparity in the laws laid down a model of public

administration and the main mechanisms of the political process.

The main cause of inhibition of the process of modernization of political

systems in post-Soviet countries is the unresolved issues at the legislative level, a

clear distinction between the functions of political and economic actors.