gemma frisius lecture 2011

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(CC) 2011 vantill (at) gmail.com Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritus Telecommunication and Networking TU Delft, NL HAN University of Applied Sciences, NL University of Kaunas, LIT University of Indonesia, Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011 Leeuwarden, Friesland, Monday June 20 2011 15.30 – 16.00 In Praise of Dis-Obedience http://www.gemmafrisius.nl/ question is no longer ‘what PPL can do with but ‘what frequent and intensive networking does to (groups of) people’ Version 5

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In Praise of Dis-Obedience, Network Effects on Society

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Page 1: Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011

(CC) 2011 vantill (at) gmail.com

Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritusTelecommunication and Networking

TU Delft, NLHAN University of Applied Sciences, NL

University of Kaunas, LITUniversity of Indonesia, Jakarta, IND

University of Kumasi, GHN

Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011 Leeuwarden, Friesland, Monday June 20 2011

15.30 – 16.00

In Praise of Dis-Obediencehttp://www.gemmafrisius.nl/

The question is no longer ‘what PPL can do with ICT’but ‘what frequent and intensive networking

does to (groups of) people’

Version 5

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In Praise of Disobedience

Goei Midje !!!

• Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid : Bottom up P2P Innovations• Summary see www.gemmafrisius.nl/

• 5 billion (smart) phones and 2 billion laptops with Internet• 4 hours a day use, digital natives, social media: engagement

• Effects: Transparency, changing roles, footloose from anchors?• New possibilities in Time and Place• Social-, society effects, Awakening??

• I am not a promotor or rebel but just tell you what I see.

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In Praise of Disobedience

Napoleon’s army and bureaucracy

Command &Control Information

SimpleLinearStatic

Networked P2P Cooperation Creative Construction

Coordination Hierachies and Authorities less relevant Contributions that WORKCooperation

Complex, non-linear, dynamic Now with Network Technolgy We Can !

Value is in the Link / RelationValue is in the centre/node, authority

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In Praise of Disobedience

Network Technology removes obstacles (Liebig’s Law ) Something changed !! see Shirky [8]

I GovernancePR, DecisionsBroadcasting MediaNewspapers, TVAdvertisingPropagandaSpin Doctors [20]Media celebs

II Democracy and TelecommunicationDialogue, in panels on TVReferendum onlineE-democracyWebsite input, reactionsEmail

Diversity of ViewsMajority Rule with respect for minority

III SynthecracyCombination ofThings that Work Compl CooperationMSN,BloggingTribesSynthesisTwitterYoutube

Synergy, Emergent BehaviourSurprises, Value creation

Top down P2P lateral, bottom up

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In Praise of Disobedience

Why do people contribute in networks of volunteers?

• Several surveys of drivers of young people all over the world,

Their ambition is:

Individual recognition & belong inside a tribe

Self esteem Appreciation from group

Stick out as a Brand Valuable effective contributions, skill

“ Eigenwaarde “ “ Waardering “

internal: specialty external: relations connections

Selfish & general interest

Graves Value Model: staircase / upwards spiral

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In Praise of Disobedience

Driver: changes in the leading structural principle

from functional- business process- to units/networking-organizations

Goods

Information

Network of small businessesand value chains of units

Network

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In Praise of Disobedience

The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists

DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects

1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N) V~ N Log N Odlyzko -Tilly’s Law 3. Group Membership V ~ 2N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) (+ Multi Tribe Membership by networking )

4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Law of Synthecracy Networking

Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N) Valuecreation by synthesis grows multiplicative (Delen = vermenigvuldigen)

Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14]

Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]

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In Praise of Disobedience

Monument for the Angels of Iran-viewing from different angles – Yes, we can Help Eachother !! August 2009, JvT

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In Praise of Disobedience

Cooperative NETWORK i.e. WAVE: can scale !Synergy ENERGY !!

Different angles!

The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by Synthesis

< distance >

Max. Size NDoes not scale

Issues:

- Simple- Linear- Static

Issues:

- Complex- Non linear- Dynamic

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In Praise of Disobedience

The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions

Different angles !b. Resolution ~ < distance > contrast

Array

Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !!Clusters

a. Sensitivity ~ teledensity N*N

CORRELATION N ! Combinations

FFT NETWORK “network LensesTechnology

It can coordinate, inform, self organise

Global Brain 2012

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In Praise of Disobedience

The Trias Internetica: clustering of roles in the NetTech Age [ van Till 1988, version March 31 2008]

CIVIL SOCIETY empowered Civiliansvolunteers Freedom of Choice, users

microtransactions<Douglass North>virtual communities <Maslov ++>distant friend links, P2P, complexity horizontal value chains, shareSynthesis Synergy, distr. models * open source softw. dev. * ISOC IETF, organic growth * mashups, self org netw’s

general public Interest

STATE Governments Institutions

(unipolar extreme: bureacratic controlaholicism)

Reliability and Equality in treatment by Law

MKT Businesses Enterprises The power of EBITDA Risk/ Reward vent. Partnerships Brotherhoods

(unipolar extreme: dominant monopolies)

The power of ideas and know how

The power of position

(unipolar extreme:selfcentered, intolerance,isolation)

[ Separation of State Powers (Montesquieu)]

executive

legislative judiciary

Synthecracy

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In Praise of Disobedience

After the Arab SpringUprisings in Tunesia,Egypt, Libya, Jemen,Syria, and Iran

Protests on SquaresIn Europe June 19, 2011 #globalrevolution Twitter

Protestors are fed up with stagnant And conservative regimes,Politicians and bankers.Want change and new Bottom up Enterprises: Phyles (see P2P Foundation)Synthecracy shows itself !

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4 day old bacteria colony of “Paenibacillus vortex” [5] consisting of 100 x 6 x 10 ^ 9 cooperating bacteriaIts members have genes associated with social functions like: communicating together, processingenvironmental information and to synthesize chemicals for external use.

Evolution in nature depends not only on mutation and competition but also on COOPERATION [4]and group selection !!

Diameter = 8 cm

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In Praise of Disobedience

What lies ahead?• Synthecratic bottom up P2P innovation & fast group learning with the help of network bonds. Creating a very strong and fast responding and cooperating fabric of small units.

Such units should consist of a strong combination of complementary skilled• Homo Sapiens - knowledge• Homo Faber – high skill to make things work• Homo Ludens –Playful Imagination• Homo Disobediens – Daring & exploring black swans

Examples:

- Friesland: Freya de Vries (13) is active online to design banners for Japanese Manga interest group. Specialty: Kitsunes (trans-national)

- Group of young scientists KNAW promote the importance of fundamental research in COMBINATIONS of different practical fields ( trans-sector, trans-discipline, trans- institute)

- Fablabs: emergent network of garage size industries with low cost very powerful machines: TNC, 3D printers, Arduino PLC electronics.

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Conclusion:

After more (elite democracy) or less (mkt creative destruction) successful versions of Aristocracy, Meritocracy, Media-Consumocracy we will have

P2P Synthecracy by massive use of network technology to create value.Bottom up and self organized across fences and boundaries using social network and other ICT tools that bind people together.

• Authorities and hierarcies are no longer very relevant. Thing that work are.

• Use the creative construction networking force of sharing & combining idea’s/ knowledge/ solutions that have shown to be working = Synthecracy. What unique specialised skill can you contribute ??

Around 2012 we will enter the age of global network synergy We wish you good connections !

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In Praise of Disobedience

References

[1] van Till, ‘Sociale media brengen nieuw systeem’, Netkwesties 6 februari 2011, http://www.netkwesties.nl/346/sociale-media-brengen-nieuw-systeem.htm English language version: ’Regime Change in the ‘Arab Spring’ is a System Change’

http://bit.ly/fa4tjo[2] Wadah Khanfar, director general of Al Jazeera, TED lecture: http://goo.gl/AR2Ty

March 2011 “giving the people there back their self confidence and dignity”.[3] “The man who wrote the non violent revolution rulebook” Dr Gene Sharp is the man

credited with the strategy behind the toppling of governments from Serbia to Egypt. http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/news/world-middle-east-12522848[4] Martin Nowak & Roger Highfield “Super Cooperators - Evolution, Altruism and Human Behaviour-” or ‘Why we need eachother to succeed’ Free Press, 2011. (Nowak: mathematical evolutionary biology)[5] Anna Kuchment, “ The Smartest Bacteria on Earth” One species of soil microbe (in a

huge colony) makes unusually wise communal decisions, Scientific American, June 2011, http://www.ScientificAmerican/jun2011/bacteria about article of Eshel Ben-Jacob in BMC Genomics, Dec 2010.[6] Gene Sharp, Non violent revolution Manual, FDTD www.greensharpfilm.com

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More Sources

[1] Images from the Sea of Green http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quPXg_GoTOk[2] Farsi PDF magazine http://bit.ly/3tEjZx [3] van Till “Technologies of Flocking” http://www.scienceguide.nl/article.asp?articleid=107531 Science Guide July 3 2009 , including link to Stonier article.[4] Iran’s Modern Communications http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ROCzKzQNc&feature=related[5] http://www.haystacknetwork.com/[6] American journalists about Iran http://fora.tv/2009/07/01/Tweeting_The_Revolution[7] Peter Csermely , “Weak Links" -- Stabilizers of Complex Systems from Proteins to Social Networks”; Springer 2006[9 ] Rao, “Market Rebels – How Activists Make or Break Radical Innovations” ; 2009, Princeton University Press[8 ] Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody – How Change Happens when People Come Together; 2009, Penguin[10] Earls. “HERD – How to Change Mass Behaviour by Harnessing our True Nature”; revised edition 2009, Wiley[11] Carlota Perez, 2009 Open Democracy Journal; http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/economics/email/how-to-make-economic-crisis-creative[12] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/4-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm#comienzo [13] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/2-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm[14] Lawrence Lessig about the re-use of intellectual property http://wiki.lessig.org/index.php?title=TheKeenReader[15] Peizer, “ The Dynamics of Technology for Social Change – lessons learned from the field” ; 2006, iUniverse Inc[16] Gene Sharp “ From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation, The Albert Einstein Institution 2002, Original version by Khit Pyaing , Bangkok in 1993. PDF is online.[17] Popovic, Milivojevic, Djinovic “Nonviolent Struggle – 50 Crucial Points” Manual ; 2006 CANVAS Belgrade, online as 50CP_Farsi.pdf or 50CP_English.pdf[18] Siegfried Woldhek http://www.Nabuur.com[19] Michel Bauwens P2P Foundation http://p2pfoundation.net/The_Foundation_for_P2P_Alternatives[20] Template Twitter Strategy for Government Departements (UK mInistries)[21] Fleetwood Mac, “Don’t stop Thinking about Tomorrow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8arvEzHsA8[22] Mark Cooper ” FROM WIFI TO WIKIS AND OPEN SOURCE: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF COLLABORATIVE PRODUCTION IN

THE DIGITAL INFORMATION AGE” Telecommunications & High Technolgy Law Vol 5, 9/7/2007 Stanford[23] Van Till “Towards Synthecracy” , Knowledge Democracy Conference, Leiden summer 2009[24] Project “The wisdom of crowds” Stichting Toekomstbeeld Techniek (STT), KIVI 2010

Technologies of Flocking: creative construction towards the Synthecracy Society