gem risk global datasets and openquake risk modeling, gem reveal 2013, helen crowley
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GEM risk global datasets and OpenQuake risk modelingTRANSCRIPT
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GEM risk global datasets and OpenQuake risk modelingthe GEM Risk team, the GEM IT Team and the community of scientists and engineers..
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An international scientific community is developing risk datasets and tools:
USGSStanford Uni. ImageCat
ERN‐AL
CIESIN
BGSBCIT
Kyoto Uni.
Geoscience Australia
GNS
UN‐HABITAT
UCL
NTUAKOERI
GFZ
SPA Risk
PUC
WAPMERRJRC
Uni. Pavia
CREDUni. CambridgeCAR
Uni. Colorado
EERI/WHE
Uni. Nottingham
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Buildings vary around the world, but they have a common set of characteristics: taxonomy
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva
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A comprehensive online glossary helps users understand the meaning of each building taxonomy term
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GEM Building Taxonomy Reports
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217 reports from 49 countries..
Building taxonomy reports received through World HousingEncyclopedia / EERI outreach effort
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GEM building taxonomy used to develop exposure models through paper forms and mobile/desktop “apps”
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Android tool
Map interface
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Android tool
Use integrated camera to take a picture of the building
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Android tool
Building photograph
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Android tool
Data collection form
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Android tool
Standardised GEM data model format
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Windows tool
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Windows tool
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Working with satellite data – footprint extraction tools
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Thailand (Com/Ind)
Thailand (Res) Pakistan (Mixed)
Chile (Mixed)
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Remote Sensing Tools
Sampling & FieldTools
Global Exposure Database
Building‐by‐Building(Level 3)
Putting it all together to develop exposure data and models
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Mapping SchemesTool
Remote Sensing Tools
Sampling & FieldTools
Putting it all together to develop exposure data and models
Global Exposure Database
City/Region Models(Level 2)
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A Global Exposure Database with varying levels of resolution, from country‐based to individual buildings..
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Level 0 and 1 are country and sub‐country and use population as proxy for building density and spatial distribution
Population Density for the year 2000 (GRUMP)
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Dwelling fractions (percentage of population in different building typologies) are produced at level 0 (country) and level 1 (sub‐country) level
Rural Non‐residential
Urban Non‐residential
Rural Residential
Urban Residential
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Level 0 dwelling fractions –100% global coverage (source: PAGER, some countries have updated fractions based on UN‐HABITAT wall/roof census data)
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Level 1 dwelling fractions – 35% global coverage
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Level 1 dwelling fractions – 35% global coverage
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Average number of people per dwelling
Average floor area per dwelling:
Average floor area per capita
Study Region facts (almost 100% coverage at Level 0)Floor area (m2)
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Global layer of number of buildings, area of buildings, replacement cost of buildings, and fractions to distribute these parameters between different building typologies
Global coverage of Level 0 by end of 2013, Level 1 expected to grow with time..
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How should we estimate the physical vulnerability of structures around the world?
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Use the database of existing empirical, analytical and expert opinion fragility and vulnerability functions that is being developed
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Use the guidelines for developing new fragility and vulnerability functions
Empirical methods
Analytical methodsEmpirical‐national methods
Expert elicitation methods
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Empirical guidelines offer approaches for combining observed damage and loss data with observed ground motions..
Fractio
n of buildings > Dam
age State 3
Macroseismic Intensity (MMI)
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Two expert elicitation workshops
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Japan
Iran
India Italy
California
Greece
Light shaking Severe shaking
Fata
lity
Rat
e
Empirical‐national guidelines use regression analysis to relate observed macroseismic intensity with fatality and economic loss data from past events ..
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Analytical guidelines offer different approaches to modelling structures..
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and different approaches to analytically estimating response and damage..
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A full spectrum of earthquake consequences from past earthquakes is being collected ‐ for deriving and/or validating vulnerability functions
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64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas
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64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas
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64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas
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ShakeMap Atlas 2.0
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Critical Buildings and Infrastructure
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Critical Buildings and Infrastructure
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Exposure Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy taxonomy
A wide range of use cases
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Exposure Consequences
1. Use tools to collect data in the field, develop models and contribute to databases
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Vulnerability
guidelines
2. Use guidelines to develop new vulnerability functions, and contribute these to the vulnerability database
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Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy
guidelines
3. Use data from the consequences database to develop new vulnerability
functions…
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Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy
4. Compare vulnerability functions with data from the consequences database
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Exposure Vulnerability
taxonomy
OpenQuake Engine
5. Download exposure models and vulnerability models to run risk calculations
with the OpenQuake Engine
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OpenQuake Engine v1.0Scenario risk calculator, featuring ground motion residual and vulnerability uncertainty correlation
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D5
D3
D1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
RCLRPC RCMRPC RCHRPC RCLRC RCMRC RCHRC
OpenQuake Engine v1.0Scenario damage calculator, featuring the use of fragility functions to derive damage distributions
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Calculations for Tunis city by an OpenQuake engine userLow
probability of collapse
High probability of
collapse
Calculations by Ahmed Ksentini, Tunisia
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0.01
0.1
1
0.00E+00 4.00E+09 8.00E+09 1.20E+10
Probability
of exceedance in
50 years
Aggregated Economic Losses (EUR)
Type B
Type C
Type D
No correlation Correlation in the ground motion and vulnerability
Only correlation of the ground motion residuals
OpenQuake Engine v1.0Probabilistic event‐based risk calculator for portfolio loss exceedance probability calculations, featuring ground motion residual and vulnerability uncertainty correlation
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OpenQuake Engine v1.0PSHA‐based risk calculator, for rapid asset‐specific loss exceedance probability calculations
Loss map for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
Loss map for a 1% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
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OpenQuake Engine v1.0Retrofitting benefit‐cost calculator, to guide decisions on where and when retrofitting makes sense
BenefitNo Benefit Benefit‐Cost Ratio
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We plan to use the global uniform hazard map, global exposure database (level 0) and a set of global vulnerability functions to develop a global risk map
low medium high