GECAFS SCENARIOS

• Need for scenarios

• GECAFS scenario requirements

• Scenario work elsewhere

• Developing GECAFS scenarios

WHEN ARE SCENARIOS NEEDED?

INFOQUAL

Hi

Lo

Lo ABILITY TO CONTROL OUTCOMES

Hi

HedgeForecasts

Optimization

Adaptive

Mgt

Scenarios

NEED FOR SCENARIOS:A GECAFS PERSPECTIVE

• Consider future uncertainty• Provide story line for key indicators• Define set of plausible futures (min scen set)• Interpret “Changing Socio-economic Conditions”• Blend quantitative & qualitative info• Provide linkages between GECAFS regional studies

& other scales• Provide context for GECAFS regional studies• Provide foundation for linkages across regional studies

GECAFS SCENARIO ATTRIBUTES:PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT (APR 01)

Scales

Temporal: 1-5 yrs (10 max)

Spatial: regional/national with links to GECAFS projects

Key Variables

Food systems: production, availability, accessibility

Socio-econ: pop., econ performance, tech., inst., policies

Bio-phys: climate, water, land

EXISTING SCENARIOS

• UNEP (real regional data content is increasing)• POLESTAR (global scenario group)• TARGET (Netherlands)• WCRP suite on climate• Millennium Assessment• FAO (water, land, fibre supply, pop’n• Pop’n – Columbia University• Marine – FAO, Int. Mangrove and coral

projects

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES

Global Scenario Group: GSG (SEI)

Time: 2050 Regions: 11

Focus: Environment, poverty reduction, human values

Scenarios:

Conventional worlds (market forces, policy reform)

Barbarization (breakdown, fortress world)

Great Transitions: (eco-communalism, new sustainability)

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: SRS (IPCC)

Time: 2100 Regions: 4

Focus: Climate change

Scenarios:

A1: Rapid market growth, economic & cultural globalization

A2: Self-reliance & cultural identity preserved, fragmented development

B1: Similar to A1 but global solutions for sustainability

B2: Local sustainability solutions to soc-econ & env issues

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d

MA Proto-scenarios

Time: about +50 yrs Regions: ?

Focus: Derived from GSG, SRES, etc.

Scenarios:

1: Market driven globalization, trade liberalization, institutional modernization

2: Like 1 but sustaining ecosystems policies in place

3: Developed world: shift to sustainability. Developing world: Poverty reduction, sustability emphasized

4. Fragmented development: preserve regional econ & local culture

5. Elites fortress (national or local), poverty outside

SUGGESTIONS FOR DEVELOPING

GECAFS SCENARIOS

• Firm up GECAFS scenario attributes

• Inventory of existing scenarios sets

• Appraise existing scenarios w.r.t. GECAFS scenario attributes

• Consult with GECAFS regional projects

• Develop GECAFS scenarios report

BUILDING GECAFS SCENARIOSGECAFS NEEDS SEI IPCC MA ???

Food production

Food availability

Food accessibility

Population

GDP

Institutions

Climate

Water

Land use

GECAFS SCENARIO ISSUES

• Issues of vulnerability difficult to identify in groups that do not have income

• Estimate degree of dependence on local natural resources – most vulnerable group

• Mismatch in scales

• Data on institutions likely to be missing or not well recorded

• Cultural influences on food demand unrecorded

• Very important to understand the quality of data