gdov supplemantary ria sept 2017 - southkesteven.gov.uk

SUPPLEMENTARY RETAIL IMPACT ANALYSIS

PLANNING APPLICATION

September 2017

Our ref: 3446

Supplementary Retail Impact Analysis

Grantham Designer Outlet Village

King 31, Grantham

Prepared on behalf of

Rioja Developments

September 2017

Small Planning Consultancy of the Year 2014

Supplementary Retail Impact Analysis Grantham Designer Outlet Village

NTR Planning Contents

Contents

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 2

2. Supplementary Sequential Site Assessment ............................................................... 3

3. Supplementary Impact Assessment ........................................................................... 8

4. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 15

Appendices

Appendix NTR 1 Revised RIA Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 7 – Tables 3 and 4

Appendix NTR 2 Revised RIA Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 8 – Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4


NTR Planning Abbreviations

Abbreviations

DMRB Design Manual for Roads and Bridges

DOV Designer Outlet Village

HGV Heavy goods vehicle

Ha Hectare

NPPF National Planning Policy Framework

ONS Office for National Statistics

PBA Peter Brett Associates

PCA Primary Catchment Area

PPG Planning Practice Guidance

RIA Retail Impact Analysis

SCA Secondary Catchment Area

SKDC South Kesteven District Council

SRIA Supplementary Retail Impact Analysis

Sq.ft Square feet

Sq.m Square metre


NTR Planning 2

1. Introduction

1.1 This Supplementary Retail Impact Analysis (SRIA) is prepared in support of Rioja

Developments’ planning application for a Designer Outlet Village (DOV) at King 31,

Grantham (referenced S17/1262). It has been prepared following the receipt of, and in

response to, Peter Brett Associates’ (PBA) Retail and Town Centre Planning Advice dated

September 2017, prepared to advise South Kesteven District Council (SKDC).

1.2 PBA is satisfied that the RIA has adopted a number of appropriate assumptions including in

respect of the methodology adopted in the Sequential Site Assessment; the catchment area

of the proposed development; the estimated retail turnover of the scheme in the design

years; and the broad trade draw assumptions that have been applied in respect of the

primary and secondary catchment areas. However, PBA has asked us to consider two

additional sequential sites and have highlighted some queries in respect of the existing

comparison retail turnovers of town centres estimated within the RIA. These are addressed

in this SRIA.

1.3 Section 2 provides a Supplementary Sequential Site Assessment; Section 3 provides a

Supplementary Impact Assessment; and Section 4 provides conclusions.

1.4 The fundamental conclusions of the RIA remain robust.


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2. Supplementary Sequential Site Assessment

2.1 At paragraph 5.2 of PBA’s Advice, they confirm that they are satisfied that the RIA has

adopted an appropriate area of search for the Sequential Site Assessment and that the

search criteria has demonstrated a considerable degree of flexibility, taking into account

the purpose of the development and the applicant’s objectives. They agree that all the

sites identified in the Sequential Site Assessment are either unavailable or unsuitable for

the proposed development. They do however identify two further sites which they

consider should be assessed as part of the sequential assessment. These are considered

below.

Jessop Way, Newark

2.2 PBA has considered this site to be suitable for assessment based on its size, availability and

proximity to the A1 and have requested that consideration be given as to whether it is

sequentially preferable in terms of its accessibility and connectivity to Newark Town

Centre. In considering the site we have adopted the same methodology used to assess

other sites, as agreed with PBA.

2.3 The site is being marketed by Gazeley as ‘G.PARK Newark’. The marketing details identify

the site as having units available from 100,000 sq.ft. to 768,000 sq.ft ‘for warehouse,

industrial and production uses’. The site is identified as an ‘Industrial Estate/Existing

Employment Policy Area and an Employment Site with Planning Permission’ on the

Council’s Policies Map.

Accessibility

2.4 One of the key elements of the adopted methodology is that any site ‘should be accessible

to the strategic highway network’1. Although close to the A1, the Jessop Way site has no

direct access to it. SYSTRA (the applicant’s highways consultant) has confirmed that the

formation of a direct access to/from the A1 would not be achievable as this would be too

close to the existing junctions to the north and south and therefore would not accord with

the relevant standards set out in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) for

junction design.

2 Planning permission 17/0360/FUL


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2.5 The route to and from the A1 is convoluted, with a number of roundabouts and traffic

signal junctions. The route runs through an industrial estate which has significant vehicular

movements and on-street HGV parking, despite the presence of double yellow lines

(witnessed during our site visit). The site does not therefore provide suitable access to/from

the strategic highway network, and, for this reason alone, can be dismissed as being

unsuitable for the form of development proposed. Furthermore, the experience of the

route to the site does not offer the ‘sense of arrival’ required for a Tier 1 DOV and is

therefore entirely unsuitable.

Image 1.The site Image 2. View south from site down Jessop Way

Image 3. Jessop Way/Brunel Drive roundabout Image 4. Brunel Drive, close to A1 junction

2.6 Traffic generated by a DOV in this location (on roads unsuitable to accommodate it) would

be in conflict with existing commercial/industrial traffic. This would be detrimental to other

businesses accommodated in the industrial estates, which prevailing planning policies seek

to protect and promote.


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2.7 We can conclude that whilst the site is in close proximity to the A1, it is not suitably

accessible to/from it. On this point alone the site fails the sequential test.

Connectivity to Newark Town Centre

2.8 Connectivity to Newark Town Centre is poor. The network of roads is narrow, with limited

pavement widths, and is intersected by numerous wide (15-20m) access points serving the

industrial estates, which compromise the safe passage of pedestrians. There is no bus

route connecting the site to Newark Town Centre and cycle route provision is substandard.

The majority of the walk (from the site to the junction with Beacon Hill Road) is defined by

its industrial nature and is unattractive as a route between a quality tier 1 DOV and a town

centre. It does not promote the sense of arrival which a Tier 1 DOV demands.

East Road, Sleaford

2.9 PBA identify this site (paragraph 3.30) as being marketed by Brown and Co. They state that

the land is undeveloped and comprises seven plots (with planning permission for B Class

development) and assume that it is available. They state the total site area as 17 Hectares,

however the marketing details identify the combined plots as totalling 6.96 Hectares (17.17

acres):

Table 1 – East Road Site - Plot Sizes and Availability

Plot Number Size (acres) Size (ha) Status Available (ha)

1 1.72 0.70 Vacant 0.70

2 3.82 1.55 Developed 0.00

3 2.17 0.88 Unclear 0.88

4 4.36 1.76 Vacant 1.76

5 2.00 0.81 Under construction2

0.00

6 2.64 1.07 0.00

7 0.46 0.19 Developed3 0.00

Totals 17.17 6.96 3.34




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2.10 The site therefore fails to meet the minimum size criteria of 7.5 hectares, and can be

dismissed on this point alone. Furthermore, several of the plots are under construction or

recently developed, leaving only 3.34 hectares of disjointed land available. An extract of

the plots is provided below, along with a photograph of some recently developed units.

Image 5. Land at East Road, Sleaford (marketing detail)

Image 6. Implemented planning permission 16/0742/FUL (Plot 7)


NTR Planning 7

2.11 The site therefore fails the sequential test on site size alone. Access to the site is along East

Road, which is a single carriageway road with a single footway (see Image 6, below). The

road itself is narrow and would not be able to accommodate traffic flows associated with a

Tier 1 DOV.

2.12 As well as being too small to be considered sequentially preferable, the site does not

provide sufficient accessibility to the strategic highway network4; is not accessible to the

Catchment Area5 and is therefore unsuitable.

Image 6. East Road close to junction with A17

4 See RIA para. 6.15

5 See RIA para. 6.65


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3. Supplementary Impact Assessment

Population figures

3.1 At paragraph 4.16, PBA query whether the population figures for the 20 Study Area Zones

are based on ONS population projections. We have contacted Experian and they have

confirmed that they are.

Turnover of existing destinations

3.2 PBA request that we compare the turnover figures used within the RIA with the turnover

figures presented in the Council’s Retail Study (that have been derived from market shares)

and provide further explanation of the estimates uses. Table 2, below, responds to the first

point.

Table 2 - Comparison of Retail Study and Household Survey-based Turnovers (SKDC centres)

Turnover (£m) South Kesteven Retail

Study Benchmark

2011 (in 2012 prices)

South Kesteven Retail

Study Survey-based

2011 (in 2012 prices)

RIA Household

Survey-based

2014 (in 2014 prices)

Grantham 113.62 97.77 183.25

Stamford 76.58 47.54 105.20

Bourne 36.10 24.51 31.64

Market Deeping 10.09 5.36 25.12

3.3 In Tables 10, 11 & 12 of Sub-Appendix 5 of the RIA, the expenditure flows in 2014 are

projected to 2016 and the design years — 2022 and 2025. It is assumed that the market

shares for all comparison goods will remain constant and that the expenditure flows will

increase in-line with the forecast growth of expenditure. The growth in spending in the

forecast years is calculated for each zone. The total spending in each centre in 2022 and

2025 represents the survey-based turnover estimates for all the centres based on residents’

spending. However, in the case of centres in the SCA, and particularly the larger centres on

the periphery of the Catchment Area such as Nottingham, Leicester and Derby, these

estimates will be much lower than the actual turnover of the centres because they will

draw additional trade from beyond the defined Catchment Area boundary.


NTR Planning 9

3.4 In terms of explaining the estimates used, Table 7 of the RIA6 compares the benchmark

turnovers of the four centres (Grantham, Stamford, Bourne and Market Deeping) assessed

in the South Kesteven Retail Study with the survey-based. PBA note that it is more

appropriate to compare the survey-based turnover figures used within the RIA with the

turnover figures presented within the Council’s Retail Study that have been derived from

market shares.

3.5 PBA comment that these centres are trading beneath their benchmark levels. This is

because the Retail Study survey-based turnovers are derived from a household survey

across a limited geographical area. Therefore some of the turnover going to these centres

as inflow from beyond the survey area is excluded. For the same reason the survey-based

turnover estimates in the Retail Study are lower than the survey-based figures in the RIA

(which defines a much larger survey area). The household survey carried out for our Impact

Assessment provides a more comprehensive basis for estimating the turnover of centres in

the PCA.

Trade Draw Assumptions

3.6 PBA note that the trade draw assumptions presented within the RIA differ from those

agreed at pre-application stage. At the time of the preparation of the RIA Scoping Letter the

trade draw to the proposed development was expected to be 50 per cent from the PCA, 40

per cent from the SCA, and 10 per cent from outside of the catchment area, based on an

analysis by FSP. FSP subsequently carried out a more up-to-date analysis. As explained in

the RIA7, a market analysis by FSP based on DOVs across the country indicates that

Grantham DOV can be expected to draw 37.5% of its total trade from within a 30 minute

drive-time and 55.0% from residents within 30 to 60 minutes’ drive-time and the remainder

from beyond 60 minutes’ drive-time. This trade draw pattern is based on the distribution of

population within 30 and 60 minutes and the fact that Grantham DOV will perform as a

high quality retail destination with a wide geographical attraction, rather than a lower tier

midscale factory outlet development. The 30 minute drive-time corresponds with the

Primary Catchment Area and the 30 to 60 minute drive-time corresponds with the

Secondary Catchment Area. Therefore the scheme is expected to draw 37.5% of its total

6 See page 52

7 See paragraph 7.25


NTR Planning 10

trade from residents of the PCA, 55.0% from residents of the SCA and 7.5% as inflow from

outside the Catchment Area.

Trade Diversion Weightings

3.7 PBA note that the weightings used in the RIA differed from those used in support of Scotch

Corner, and recommended (paragraph 4.37) that we either justify why different weightings

were used, or amend the tables to reflect the Scotch Corner weightings.

3.8 The initial weightings we used are the same as those initially adopted by PBA in their Retail

Statement for Scotch Corner. The weightings are generic weightings that were considered

by PBA to be applicable to different types of centre nationally. They are therefore suitable

to apply in this instance.

3.9 Subsequently PBA revised these weightings, as shown in Table 3, below.

Table 3 - Comparison of Weightings of Market Shares of Centres

Type of Centre Weightings of

market shares in

submitted RIA

Weightings of

market shares

suggested by PBA

Designer Outlet Centres 4 4

City Centre/Major Town 2 4

Large Town 1 2

Retail Parks (non-bulky) 1.5 2

Market Town 0.5 1

Small Centres/Bulky Goods Retail Parks 0.25 0.25

3.10 For the purposes of testing the sensitivity of the trade draws from different centres, Table 3

and 4 of the Revised Appendix NTR 4 Sub-Appendix 78 apply the revised weightings of

market shares of centres suggested by PBA to calculate the solus trade diversion from

centres in 2022 and 2025. These are also illustrated in Table 4, overleaf.

8 Provided as Appendix NTR1 to the SRIA


NTR Planning 11

Table 4 - Solus Trade Diversion in 2025 (based on weighted market shares)

Centres Weighting

Classification

Submitted

RIA9

Using revised

weightings

Grantham Town Centre Large Town 2.1% 2.2%

Bourne Town Centre Market Town 1.1% 1.1%

Sleaford Town Centre Market Town 1.0% 1.1%

Stamford Town Centre Large Town 1.6% 1.7%

Newark-on-Trent Town Centre Large Town 1.9% 2.0%

Melton Mowbray Town Centre Large Town 2.0% 2.1%

Oakham Town Centre Market Town 1.0% 1.1%

Lincoln City Centre City Centre 2.7% 2.8%

Peterborough City Centre City Centre 1.5% 1.6%

Springfields DOV, Spalding DOV 2.7% 1.4%

East Midlands DOV DOV 2.3% 1.2%

Leicester City Centre City Centre 1.2% 1.2%

Nottingham City Centre City Centre 1.3% 1.4%

Derby City Centre City Centre 1.1% 1.1%

3.11 The alternative weightings suggested by PBA make only a marginal difference to the

predicted solus trade diversions. No centres in the Primary Catchment Area have a

predicted impact of more than 2.2%. In the Secondary Catchment Area only Lincoln City

Centre has a predicted impact of more than 2%. The effect of applying higher weightings to

city centres, major towns and large towns gives greater emphasis to these larger centres

and slightly increases their trade draws, but it reduces the trade draws from the DOVs.

Commitments

3.12 The RIA takes account of five identified commitments for large-scale comparison goods

retail development in the Catchment Area, which could result in a cumulative trading

impact within the proposed development. The schemes included have a minimum retail

floorspace of 2,500 sq.m gross, which can be regarded as ‘major’ retail development in

terms of the requirements for impact assessment in the Framework/PPG. PBA have

suggested that commitments of more than 1,000 sq.m gross should be included. The figure

of 2,500 sq.m gross in the Framework represents a threshold above which proposed retail

9 See RIA Table 11 (page 57)


NTR Planning 12

developments could have a significant adverse impact and for which an RIA is required. In

the context of the wide catchment area of the proposed Grantham DOV it is extremely

unlikely that a development of less than 2,500 sq.m. gross would have a trading impact on

centres that could materially affect the overall cumulative impact of the proposed DOV

scheme, and not all such schemes will be supported by an RIA. The figure of 2,500 sq.m is

robust and consistent with Government advice in the Framework.

3.13 PBA have drawn attention to two major commitments that were not included in the

submitted RIA. These are:

• Northgate, Newark – a retail park development of 6,753 sq.m gross, and

• Uffington Road, Stamford – a non-food retail park of 5,083 sq.m gross.

3.14 Details of the predicted trading impacts of these additional commitments have been added

to the commitments included in the submitted RIA to calculate cumulative trade diversions.

The submitted RIA includes extensions to the Victoria Shopping Centre in Nottingham City

Centre. PBA note that it is not necessary to include city centre developments that are not

subject to the impact test set out at paragraph 26 of the Framework and accordingly the

proposed extension of the Victoria Centre has been removed from our cumulative impact

assessment.

Cumulative Impact

3.15 The predicted percentage trading impacts of these commitments including the additional

commitments listed above have been added to the solus impact of the proposed scheme to

obtain figures of total percentage cumulative impact and total cumulative trade diversion.

Details are shown in the following tables comprising Appendix NTR2. The tables are

revisions to the tables in Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 8 of the RIA.

• Table 1: Cumulative Impact of proposed development in 2022 with

additional commitments;

• Table 2: Cumulative Impact of proposed development in 2025 with

additional commitments;

• Table 3: Cumulative Impact of proposed development in 2022 with revised


NTR Planning 13

weightings and additional commitments; and

• Table 4: Cumulative Impact of proposed development in 2025 with revised

weightings and additional commitments.

3.16 Tables 1 and 2 are based on the weightings of market shares of centres used in the RIA but

allowing for the additional commitments. Tables 3 and 4 represent a sensitivity analysis of

the effect of applying the alternative weightings suggested by PBA, as well as taking

account of the additional commitments.

Analysis of Retail Impact Implications

3.17 This Section summarises the potential cumulative trading impacts shown in Tables 1-4 of

Revised Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 8, focusing on those centres predicted to experience

the highest levels of trading impact and other centres that are commented upon in the RIA.

The following table shows the predicted impacts in 2025 based on Table 2 (with additional

commitments) and Table 4 (with revised weightings and additional commitments). We do

not repeat the commentaries for each centre, which continue to be valid. It should be

emphasised that for all the centres in the Catchment Area the residual turnovers of these

centres in comparison goods in 2025 after trade diversion remains higher than the turnover

of each centre in 2016. For instance the residual turnover of Grantham town centre in 2025

is calculated to be £233.3m compared to its 2016 turnover of £199.2m, an increase of 17%.

Table 5 - Cumulative Trading Impacts in 2025

Centres Solus Impact

Impact with

additional

commitments

Impact using

revised

weightings and

additional

commitments

Grantham Town Centre 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%

Bourne Town Centre 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Sleaford Town Centre 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

Stamford Town Centre 1.6% 6.8% 6.9%

Newark-on-Trent Town Centre 1.9% 3.4% 3.5%

Melton Mowbray Town Centre 2.0% 2.0% 2.2%

Oakham Town Centre 1.0% 1.7% 1.8%


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Lincoln City Centre 2.7% 3.2% 3.4%

Peterborough City Centre 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Corby Town Centre 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%

Kettering Town Centre 0.5% 5.3% 5.3%

Leicester City Centre 1.2% 5.3% 5.3%

Nottingham City Centre 1.3% 2.8% 2.9%

Derby City Centre 1.1% 1.4% 1.4%

3.18 The predicted cumulative impacts on Stamford Town Centre and Newark Town Centre are

substantially related to other schemes. For Stamford, this is due predominantly to the

Uffington Road scheme commitment (the solus impact from Grantham DOV on Stamford is

only 1.7%) and for Newark Town Centre is due to a large extent to the approved Newark

Northgate scheme (the solus impact of Grantham DOV is only 1.9%). The cumulative

impacts still fall below that which was considered acceptable by the Secretary of State in

the Rushden Lakes Inquiry10, and our health checks for both centres confirm that they are

both healthy centres with a high degree of vitality and viability (particularly in respect of

Stamford) – This is confirmed in Table 4.1 of PBA’s Advice.

3.19 The cumulative impacts of more than 5% on Kettering Town Centre and Leicester City

Centre are due predominantly to the committed schemes at Rushden Lakes and Castle

Acres. The inclusion of commitments in the cumulative impact tables results in overall

trading impacts in Ripley and Hucknall Town Centres of around 3-4% in 2025. However,

these trade diversions are predominantly due to the approval of commitments in

Nottingham.

10 See RIA paragraph 7.47


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4. Conclusions

4.1 This Supplementary Retail Impact Analysis responds to the comments of PBA in their Retail

and Town Centre Planning Advice on the Retail Impact Analysis for Grantham DOV. It

provides a Supplementary Sequential Site Assessment that considers two additional sites

identified by PBA and discounts them as being entirely unsuitable for the development

proposed (in accordance with the Agreed Methodology which PBA support). We can

therefore conclude that there is no sequential preferable site which is capable of

accommodating the proposed DOV.

4.2 The Supplementary Impact Assessment clarifies a number of points raised by PBA and

provides further analysis to demonstrate that the requirements of the impact test provided

in the Framework and Planning Practice Guidance are fully satisfied.

4.3 Sensitivity testing has been carried out to take account of the application of different

weightings to the market shares of centres in assessing trade draw from centres. These

weightings result in marginal differences in the trade diversions from centres. Additional

commitments have been taken into account and revisions have been made to the

cumulative impact assessment. The implications of these commitments, together with the

application of different weightings of market shares, confirm that Grantham DOV would not

have any significant adverse impacts on any centres in the Catchment Area of the proposed

development.

Appendix NTR1

Revised Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 7 Tables 3 and 4

Table 3: Solus Impact of Proposed Development (Phase 1) in 2022

Trade Diversion from Centres, 2022 (£ million) applying revised weightings to the market shares of centres

CENTRES Total

spending to

centres

Spending

from PCA

zones

Market

share

Weighted

Trade

Draw from

PCA zones

Trade

Diversion

Spending

from SCA

zones

Market

share

Weighted

Trade

Draw from

SCA zones

Trade

DiversionInflow £m percent

Zone

1 Colsterworth Village Centre 0.73 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.73 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%

1 Downtown Grantham, Gonerby Lane, A1, Grantham 37.44 23.44 1.5% 1.3% 0.36 14.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.05 0.41 1.1%

1 Dysart Retail Park, Dysart Road, Grantham 24.11 18.09 1.2% 0.1% 0.03 6.02 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.04 0.2%

1 Grantham Town Centre 219.62 203.54 13.4% 11.3% 3.12 16.08 0.2% 0.1% 0.06 3.18 1.4%

2 Leadenham Village Centre 1.96 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 1.96 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%

2 Tritton Retail Park, Tritton Road, Lincoln 104.39 54.32 3.6% 0.4% 0.10 50.06 0.5% 0.1% 0.02 0.13 0.1%

3 Bourne Town Centre 38.12 35.91 2.4% 1.0% 0.28 2.21 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.28 0.7%

3 North Kyme Village Centre 4.19 1.52 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 2.67 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

3 Sleaford Town Centre 63.79 55.74 3.7% 1.5% 0.43 8.05 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.44 0.7%

3 Tattershall Village Centre 0.36 0.36 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.2%

4 Markham Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 6.43 3.64 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 2.79 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.01 0.1%

4 Stamford Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 13.21 7.06 0.5% 0.0% 0.01 6.16 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.02 0.1%

4 Stamford Town Centre 126.19 82.54 5.4% 4.6% 1.27 43.65 0.5% 0.4% 0.15 1.42 1.1%

5 Bingham Town Centre 22.35 12.64 0.8% 0.4% 0.10 9.70 0.1% 0.0% 0.02 0.11 0.5%

5 Newark-on-Trent Town Centre 208.57 165.37 10.9% 9.2% 2.53 43.20 0.5% 0.4% 0.15 2.69 1.3%

5 Northgate Retail Park, Trent Lane, Newark 27.50 25.32 1.7% 0.2% 0.05 2.19 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.05 0.2%

6 Melton Mowbray Town Centre 102.64 91.11 6.0% 5.1% 1.40 11.53 0.1% 0.1% 0.04 1.44 1.4%

7 Oakham Town Centre 55.21 49.90 3.3% 1.4% 0.38 5.31 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.39 0.7%

7 Uppingham Town Centre 4.85 3.58 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 1.27 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.01 0.2%

Primary Catchment Area Total 1,061.67 834.10 54.8% 36.5% 10.08 227.57 2.4% 1.3% 0.53 10.61 1.0%

8 Horncastle Town Centre 18.04 0.48 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 17.56 0.2% 0.1% 0.03 0.03 0.2%

8 Lincoln City Centre 585.33 284.56 18.7% 31.6% 8.72 300.77 3.2% 5.3% 2.13 10.86 1.9%

8 Saxilby Village Centre 2.68 0.47 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 2.21 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

8 Tetford Village Centre 2.34 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 2.34 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%

8 Woodhall Spa Village Centre 33.31 0.20 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 33.11 0.3% 0.0% 0.01 0.02 0.0%

9 Boston Shopping Park, Horncastle Road, Boston 26.44 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 26.44 0.3% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

9 Boston Town Centre 250.94 5.98 0.4% 0.3% 0.09 244.96 2.6% 2.1% 0.87 0.96 0.4%

9 Coningsby Village Centre 11.65 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 11.65 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

9 Holbeach Town Centre 14.10 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 14.10 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

9 Spalding Town Centre 108.40 8.55 0.6% 0.2% 0.07 99.85 1.0% 0.4% 0.18 0.24 0.2%

9 Springfields Outlet Shopping & Festival Gdns, Spalding 25.52 2.14 0.1% 0.2% 0.07 23.37 0.2% 0.4% 0.17 0.23 0.9%

9 Sutton Bridge Village Centre 7.70 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 7.70 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%

10 Brotherhood Shopping Park, Lincoln Rd, Peterborough 40.34 4.62 0.3% 0.3% 0.07 35.71 0.4% 0.3% 0.13 0.20 0.5%

10 Market Deeping Town Centre 30.70 1.15 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 29.54 0.3% 0.1% 0.05 0.06 0.2%

10 Maskew Retail Park, Maskew Avenue, Peterborough 41.01 3.80 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 37.21 0.4% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

Primary Catchment Area Secondary Catchment Area Total Trade Diversion

10 Peterborough Garden Park, Eye Road, Peterborough 7.98 0.18 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 7.80 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%

11 Huntingdon Town Centre 208.62 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 208.62 2.2% 1.8% 0.74 0.74 0.4%

11 Peterborough City Centre 649.37 88.79 5.8% 9.9% 2.72 560.58 5.9% 9.8% 3.97 6.70 1.0%

11 St. Ives Town Centre 41.34 0.17 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 41.17 0.4% 0.2% 0.07 0.07 0.2%

12 Corby Town Centre 206.22 11.57 0.8% 0.6% 0.18 194.66 2.0% 1.7% 0.69 0.87 0.4%

12 Kettering Retail Park, Carina Road, Kettering 30.70 0.04 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 30.66 0.3% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

12 Kettering Town Centre 206.16 0.45 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 205.71 2.2% 1.8% 0.73 0.74 0.4%

12 Market Harborough Town Centre 182.48 0.86 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 181.62 1.9% 1.6% 0.64 0.66 0.4%

13 Leicester City Centre 745.64 32.06 2.1% 3.6% 0.98 713.58 7.5% 12.5% 5.06 6.04 0.8%

13 Oadby Town Centre 24.58 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 24.58 0.3% 0.1% 0.04 0.04 0.2%

13 Wigston Magna Town Centre 146.20 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 146.20 1.5% 0.6% 0.26 0.26 0.2%

14 Fosse Shopping Park, Fosse Park Avenue, Leicester 400.21 10.28 0.7% 0.6% 0.16 389.94 4.1% 3.4% 1.38 1.54 0.4%

14 Loughborough Town Centre 491.89 5.19 0.3% 0.3% 0.08 486.70 5.1% 4.3% 1.73 1.81 0.4%

14 Thurmaston Retail Park, Barkby Thorpe Lane, Leicester 48.44 10.37 0.7% 0.6% 0.16 38.07 0.4% 0.3% 0.13 0.29 0.6%

15 Arnold Town Centre 65.32 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 65.32 0.7% 0.3% 0.12 0.12 0.2%

15 Victoria Retail Park, Colwick Loop Road, Netherfield 52.17 0.43 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 51.74 0.5% 0.5% 0.18 0.19 0.4%

16 Beeston Town Centre 75.50 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 75.50 0.8% 0.3% 0.13 0.13 0.2%

16 Castle Marina Retail Park, Castle Bridge Rd, Nottingham 84.25 5.76 0.4% 0.0% 0.01 78.48 0.8% 0.1% 0.03 0.05 0.1%

16 Long Eaton Town Centre 101.17 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 101.17 1.1% 0.4% 0.18 0.18 0.2%

16 Nottingham City Centre 1,513.94 110.77 7.3% 12.3% 3.40 1,403.18 14.7% 24.5% 9.95 13.35 0.9%

16 Riverside Retail Park, Electric Avenue, Nottingham 32.23 3.06 0.2% 0.2% 0.05 29.17 0.3% 0.3% 0.10 0.15 0.5%

16 West Bridgford Town Centre 21.12 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 21.12 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

17 Ilkeston Town Centre 71.01 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 71.01 0.7% 0.3% 0.13 0.13 0.2%

17 Kingsway Retail Park, Kingsway, Derby 82.28 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 82.28 0.9% 0.1% 0.04 0.04 0.0%

17 Meteor Centre, Mansfield Road, Derby 34.99 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 34.99 0.4% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.0%

17 Ripley Town Centre 88.93 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 88.93 0.9% 0.4% 0.16 0.16 0.2%

18 Derby City Centre 642.73 0.62 0.0% 0.1% 0.02 642.11 6.7% 11.2% 4.55 4.57 0.7%

18 Spondon Local Centre 21.78 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 21.78 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0%

18 Wyvern Retail Park, Wyvern Way, Derby 89.96 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 89.96 0.9% 0.1% 0.04 0.04 0.0%

19 East Midlands Designer Outlet, South Normanton 42.13 1.22 0.1% 0.1% 0.04 40.91 0.4% 0.7% 0.29 0.33 0.8%

19 Giltbrook Retail Park, Ikea Way, Giltbrook, Nottingham 152.03 5.40 0.4% 0.0% 0.01 146.62 1.5% 0.2% 0.06 0.08 0.0%

19 Hucknall Town Centre 67.75 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 67.75 0.7% 0.3% 0.12 0.12 0.2%

19 Mansfield Town Centre 428.88 0.10 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 428.78 4.5% 3.8% 1.52 1.52 0.4%

19 Sutton-in-Ashfield Town Centre 37.57 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 37.57 0.4% 0.2% 0.07 0.07 0.2%

20 Retford Town Centre 106.79 1.58 0.1% 0.1% 0.02 105.21 1.1% 0.9% 0.37 0.40 0.4%

20 Worksop Town Centre 102.35 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 102.35 1.1% 0.9% 0.36 0.36 0.4%

Secondary Catchment Area Total 8,503.19 600.85 39.5% 61.1% 16.89 7,902.34 83.0% 92.6% 37.53 54.42 0.6%

External Centres 1,480.52 87.41 5.7% 2.4% 0.67 1,393.11 14.6% 6.1% 2.61 5.53 8.81 0.6%

Total 11,045.38 1,522.36 100.0% 100.0% 27.63 9,523.02 100.0% 100.0% 40.53 5.53 73.69 0.7%

scaling factor 0.4223 0.4165

Table 4: Solus Impact of Proposed Development (Phases 1 and 2) in 2025

Trade Diversion from Centres, 2025 (£ million) applying revised weightings to the market shares of centres

CENTRES Total

spending to

centres

Spending

from PCA

zones

Market

share

Weighted

Trade

Draw from

PCA zones

Trade

Diversion

Spending

from SCA

zones

Market

share

Weighted

Trade

Draw from

SCA zones

Trade

DiversionInflow £m percent

Zone

1 Colsterworth Village Centre 0.80 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.80 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

1 Downtown Grantham, Gonerby Lane, A1, Grantham 40.58 25.42 1.5% 1.3% 0.60 15.16 0.1% 0.1% 0.08 0.68 1.7%

1 Dysart Retail Park, Dysart Road, Grantham 26.15 19.65 1.2% 0.1% 0.06 6.50 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.06 0.2%

1 Grantham Town Centre 238.56 221.10 13.4% 11.3% 5.20 17.46 0.2% 0.1% 0.10 5.30 2.2%

2 Leadenham Village Centre 2.12 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 2.12 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

2 Tritton Retail Park, Tritton Road, Lincoln 112.91 58.82 3.6% 0.4% 0.17 54.10 0.5% 0.1% 0.04 0.21 0.2%

3 Bourne Town Centre 41.33 38.92 2.4% 1.0% 0.46 2.41 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 0.46 1.1%

3 North Kyme Village Centre 4.53 1.65 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 2.89 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.01 0.2%

3 Sleaford Town Centre 69.13 60.43 3.7% 1.5% 0.71 8.70 0.1% 0.0% 0.02 0.73 1.1%

3 Tattershall Village Centre 0.39 0.39 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.3%

4 Markham Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 6.97 3.94 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 3.03 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.01 0.2%

4 Stamford Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 14.29 7.63 0.5% 0.0% 0.02 6.65 0.1% 0.0% 0.00 0.03 0.2%

4 Stamford Town Centre 136.74 89.22 5.4% 4.6% 2.10 47.52 0.5% 0.4% 0.26 2.36 1.7%

5 Bingham Town Centre 24.17 13.68 0.8% 0.4% 0.16 10.48 0.1% 0.0% 0.03 0.19 0.8%

5 Newark-on-Trent Town Centre 225.58 179.01 10.9% 9.2% 4.21 46.57 0.5% 0.4% 0.25 4.47 2.0%

5 Northgate Retail Park, Trent Lane, Newark 29.76 27.40 1.7% 0.2% 0.08 2.36 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.08 0.3%

6 Melton Mowbray Town Centre 111.05 98.52 6.0% 5.0% 2.32 12.53 0.1% 0.1% 0.07 2.39 2.1%

7 Oakham Town Centre 59.63 53.88 3.3% 1.4% 0.63 5.75 0.1% 0.0% 0.02 0.65 1.1%

7 Uppingham Town Centre 5.25 3.87 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 1.39 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.01 0.2%

Primary Catchment Area Total 1,149.94 903.53 54.8% 36.5% 16.76 246.41 2.4% 1.3% 0.89 17.65 1.5%

8 Horncastle Town Centre 19.50 0.52 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 18.98 0.2% 0.1% 0.05 0.06 0.3%

8 Lincoln City Centre 633.30 308.19 18.7% 31.6% 14.51 325.11 3.2% 5.3% 3.54 18.05 2.8%

8 Saxilby Village Centre 2.89 0.51 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 2.38 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

8 Tetford Village Centre 2.53 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 2.53 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.1%

8 Woodhall Spa Village Centre 35.99 0.22 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 35.77 0.3% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

9 Boston Shopping Park, Horncastle Road, Boston 28.73 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 28.73 0.3% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

9 Boston Town Centre 272.76 6.49 0.4% 0.3% 0.15 266.27 2.6% 2.2% 1.45 1.60 0.6%

9 Coningsby Village Centre 12.61 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 12.61 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.1%

9 Holbeach Town Centre 15.30 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 15.30 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.1%

9 Spalding Town Centre 117.87 9.27 0.6% 0.2% 0.11 108.60 1.1% 0.4% 0.30 0.40 0.3%

9 Springfields Outlet Shopping & Festival Gdns, Spalding 27.73 2.33 0.1% 0.2% 0.11 25.40 0.2% 0.4% 0.28 0.39 1.4%

9 Sutton Bridge Village Centre 8.30 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 8.30 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.1%

10 Brotherhood Shopping Park, Lincoln Rd, Peterborough 43.89 5.01 0.3% 0.3% 0.12 38.88 0.4% 0.3% 0.21 0.33 0.8%

10 Market Deeping Town Centre 33.43 1.25 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 32.18 0.3% 0.1% 0.09 0.10 0.3%

10 Maskew Retail Park, Maskew Avenue, Peterborough 44.61 4.11 0.2% 0.0% 0.01 40.50 0.4% 0.0% 0.03 0.04 0.1%

Primary Catchment Area Secondary Catchment Area Total Trade Diversion

10 Peterborough Garden Park, Eye Road, Peterborough 8.69 0.19 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 8.50 0.1% 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.1%

11 Huntingdon Town Centre 226.48 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 226.48 2.2% 1.8% 1.23 1.23 0.5%

11 Peterborough City Centre 705.70 96.10 5.8% 9.8% 4.52 609.60 5.9% 9.9% 6.64 11.16 1.6%

11 St. Ives Town Centre 44.88 0.19 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 44.70 0.4% 0.2% 0.12 0.12 0.3%

12 Corby Town Centre 224.71 12.49 0.8% 0.6% 0.29 212.22 2.1% 1.7% 1.16 1.45 0.6%

12 Kettering Retail Park, Carina Road, Kettering 33.48 0.05 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 33.43 0.3% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

12 Kettering Town Centre 224.75 0.49 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 224.26 2.2% 1.8% 1.22 1.23 0.5%

12 Market Harborough Town Centre 198.56 0.93 0.1% 0.0% 0.02 197.63 1.9% 1.6% 1.08 1.10 0.6%

13 Leicester City Centre 806.85 34.65 2.1% 3.5% 1.63 772.20 7.5% 12.5% 8.41 10.04 1.2%

13 Oadby Town Centre 26.51 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 26.51 0.3% 0.1% 0.07 0.07 0.3%

13 Wigston Magna Town Centre 157.67 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 157.67 1.5% 0.6% 0.43 0.43 0.3%

14 Fosse Shopping Park, Fosse Park Avenue, Leicester 432.53 11.12 0.7% 0.6% 0.26 421.41 4.1% 3.4% 2.29 2.56 0.6%

14 Loughborough Town Centre 533.43 5.61 0.3% 0.3% 0.13 527.82 5.1% 4.3% 2.87 3.01 0.6%

14 Thurmaston Retail Park, Barkby Thorpe Lane, Leicester 52.48 11.21 0.7% 0.6% 0.26 41.27 0.4% 0.3% 0.22 0.49 0.9%

15 Arnold Town Centre 70.59 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 70.59 0.7% 0.3% 0.19 0.19 0.3%

15 Victoria Retail Park, Colwick Loop Road, Netherfield 56.38 0.46 0.0% 0.0% 0.01 55.92 0.5% 0.5% 0.30 0.32 0.6%

16 Beeston Town Centre 81.72 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 81.72 0.8% 0.3% 0.22 0.22 0.3%

16 Castle Marina Retail Park, Castle Bridge Rd, Nottingham 91.17 6.24 0.4% 0.0% 0.02 84.93 0.8% 0.1% 0.06 0.08 0.1%

16 Long Eaton Town Centre 109.54 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 109.54 1.1% 0.4% 0.30 0.30 0.3%

16 Nottingham City Centre 1,637.13 119.93 7.3% 12.3% 5.65 1,517.20 14.7% 24.5% 16.52 22.16 1.4%

16 Riverside Retail Park, Electric Avenue, Nottingham 34.87 3.31 0.2% 0.2% 0.08 31.56 0.3% 0.3% 0.17 0.25 0.7%

16 West Bridgford Town Centre 22.83 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 22.83 0.2% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

17 Ilkeston Town Centre 76.67 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 76.67 0.7% 0.3% 0.21 0.21 0.3%

17 Kingsway Retail Park, Kingsway, Derby 88.99 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 88.99 0.9% 0.1% 0.06 0.06 0.1%

17 Meteor Centre, Mansfield Road, Derby 37.80 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 37.80 0.4% 0.0% 0.03 0.03 0.1%

17 Ripley Town Centre 96.06 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 96.06 0.9% 0.4% 0.26 0.26 0.3%

18 Derby City Centre 695.36 0.67 0.0% 0.1% 0.03 694.69 6.7% 11.2% 7.56 7.59 1.1%

18 Spondon Local Centre 23.55 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 23.55 0.2% 0.0% 0.02 0.02 0.1%

18 Wyvern Retail Park, Wyvern Way, Derby 97.33 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 97.33 0.9% 0.1% 0.07 0.07 0.1%

19 East Midlands Designer Outlet, South Normanton 45.54 1.32 0.1% 0.1% 0.06 44.21 0.4% 0.7% 0.48 0.54 1.2%

19 Giltbrook Retail Park, Ikea Way, Giltbrook, Nottingham 164.39 5.86 0.4% 0.0% 0.02 158.53 1.5% 0.2% 0.11 0.13 0.1%

19 Hucknall Town Centre 73.05 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 73.05 0.7% 0.3% 0.20 0.20 0.3%

19 Mansfield Town Centre 461.95 0.11 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 461.84 4.5% 3.7% 2.51 2.52 0.5%

19 Sutton-in-Ashfield Town Centre 40.48 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 40.48 0.4% 0.2% 0.11 0.11 0.3%

20 Retford Town Centre 114.88 1.71 0.1% 0.1% 0.04 113.17 1.1% 0.9% 0.62 0.66 0.6%

20 Worksop Town Centre 110.08 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 110.08 1.1% 0.9% 0.60 0.60 0.5%

Secondary Catchment Area Total 9,206.50 650.52 39.5% 61.1% 28.08 8,555.98 83.0% 92.6% 62.39 90.47 1.0%

External Centres 1,602.12 94.61 5.7% 2.4% 1.11 1,507.51 14.6% 6.1% 2.61 9.19 12.91 0.8%

Total 11,958.55 1,648.66 100.0% 100.0% 45.94 10,309.89 100.0% 100.0% 67.37 9.19 122.50 1.0%

scaling factor 0.4223 0.4165

Appendix NTR2

Revised Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 8 Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4

Appendix NTR4, Sub-Appendix 8 - CUMULATIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Table 1: Cumulative Impact of Proposed Development (Phase 1) in 2022 with additional commitments

Centres Turnover

from

residents

Residual

Turnover

Turnover

2016

Zone £m £m %

Rushden

Lakes

%

Eastpoint,

Nott'm

%

Northgate

Newark %

Uffington

Road,

Stamford %

Giltbrook

Retail Park,

Broxtowe

%

Castle

Acres,

Leicester

% % £m £m £m

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

1 Colsterworth Village Centre 0.73 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.73 0.65

1 Downtown Grantham, Gonerby Lane, Grantham 37.44 0.58 1.5% 1.5% 0.58 36.86 34.13

1 Dysart Retail Park, Dysart Road, Grantham 24.11 0.07 0.3% 0.3% 0.07 24.04 21.96

1 Grantham Town Centre 219.62 3.02 1.4% 1.4% 3.02 216.60 199.23

2 Leadenham Village Centre 1.96 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 1.96 1.81

2 Tritton Retail Park, Tritton Road, Lincoln 104.39 0.24 0.2% 0.2% 0.24 104.15 96.04

3 Bourne Town Centre 38.12 0.27 0.7% 0.7% 0.27 37.85 34.48

3 North Kyme Village Centre 4.19 0.01 0.2% 0.2% 0.01 4.18 3.85

3 Sleaford Town Centre 63.79 0.42 0.7% 0.7% 0.42 63.37 57.83

3 Tattershall Village Centre 0.36 0.00 0.3% 0.3% 0.00 0.36 0.33

4 Markham Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 6.43 0.02 0.3% 6.6% 6.9% 0.44 5.99 5.83

4 Stamford Retail Park, Ryhall Road, Stamford 13.21 0.03 0.2% 6.6% 6.8% 0.90 12.31 12.08

4 Stamford Town Centre 126.19 1.35 1.1% 5.2% 6.3% 7.91 118.28 114.50

5 Bingham Town Centre 22.35 0.11 0.5% 0.5% 0.11 22.24 20.47

5 Newark-on-Trent Town Centre 208.57 2.56 1.2% 1.5% 2.7% 5.69 202.88 190.80

5 Northgate Retail Park, Trent Lane, Newark 27.50 0.09 0.3% 10.6% 10.9% 3.01 24.50 25.13

6 Melton Mowbray Town Centre 102.64 1.37 1.3% 1.3% 1.37 101.27 93.74

7 Oakham Town Centre 55.21 0.37 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.76 54.45 50.68

7 Uppingham Town Centre 4.85 0.01 0.2% 0.2% 0.01 4.84 4.43

Primary Catchment Area Total 1,061.67 10.53 1.0% - 24.81 1,036.86 967.94

8 Horncastle Town Centre 18.04 0.03 0.2% 0.2% 0.03 18.01 16.60

8 Lincoln City Centre 585.33 10.35 1.8% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3% 13.28 572.05 537.59

8 Saxilby Village Centre 2.68 0.01 0.4% 0.4% 0.01 2.67 2.46

8 Tetford Village Centre 2.34 0.00 0.2% 0.2% 0.00 2.34 2.15

8 Woodhall Spa Village Centre 33.31 0.06 0.2% 0.2% 0.06 33.25 30.66

9 Boston Shopping Park, Horncastle Rd, Boston 26.44 0.02 0.1% 0.1% 0.02 26.42 23.90

9 Boston Town Centre 250.94 0.92 0.4% 0.4% 0.92 250.02 226.65

9 Coningsby Village Centre 11.65 0.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.01 11.64 10.72

9 Holbeach Town Centre 14.10 0.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.01 14.09 12.76

9 Spalding Town Centre 108.40 0.12 0.1% 0.1% 0.12 108.28 97.72

9 Springfields Outlet Shopping, Spalding 25.52 0.44 1.7% 1.7% 0.44 25.08 23.07

9 Sutton Bridge Village Centre 7.70 0.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.01 7.69 7.07

10 Brotherhood Shopping Park, Peterborough 40.34 0.28 0.7% 0.7% 0.28 40.06 36.22

10 Market Deeping Town Centre 30.70 0.06 0.2% 0.2% 0.06 30.64 27.51

Solus Impact of Scheme

[1]Trade Diversion to Commitments Cumulative Impact

10 Maskew Retail Park, Peterborough 41.01 0.05 0.1% 0.1% 0.05 40.96 36.86

10 Peterborough Garden Park, Peterborough 7.98 0.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.01 7.97 7.15

11 Huntingdon Town Centre 208.62 0.71 0.3% 0.3% 0.71 207.91 188.54

11 Peterborough City Centre 649.37 6.42 1.0% 1.0% 6.42 642.95 585.24

11 St. Ives Town Centre 41.34 0.07 0.2% 0.2% 0.07 41.27 37.37

12 Corby Town Centre 206.22 0.83 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 2.48 203.74 184.81

12 Kettering Retail Park, Carina Road, Kettering 30.70 0.03 0.1% 0.1% 0.03 30.67 27.45

12 Kettering Town Centre 206.22 0.71 0.3% 4.8% 5.1% 10.61 195.61 184.50

12 Market Harborough Town Centre 182.48 0.63 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.91 180.57 164.24

13 Leicester City Centre 754.64 5.81 0.8% 4.1% 4.9% 36.75 717.89 683.11

13 Oadby Town Centre 24.58 0.04 0.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.26 24.32 22.69

13 Wigston Magna Town Centre 146.20 0.25 0.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.74 143.46 134.97

14 Fosse Shopping Park, Leicester 400.21 2.22 0.6% 0.6% 2.22 397.99 367.81

14 Loughborough Town Centre 491.89 1.74 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 5.68 486.21 448.85

14 Thurmaston Retail Park, Leicester 48.44 0.42 0.9% 0.9% 0.42 48.02 44.25

15 Arnold Town Centre 65.32 0.11 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.50 64.82 60.07

15 Victoria Retail Park, Netherfield 52.17 0.27 0.5% 1.2% 2.1% 3.8% 1.99 50.18 47.97

16 Beeston Town Centre 75.50 0.13 0.2% 0.2% 0.13 75.37 69.41

16 Castle Marina Retail Park, Nottingham 84.25 0.18 0.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.11 83.14 77.40

16 Long Eaton Town Centre 101.17 0.17 0.2% 0.2% 0.17 101.00 93.00

16 Nottingham City Centre 1,513.94 12.81 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 2.3% 35.52 1,478.42 1,390.72

16 Riverside Retail Park, Electric Ave, Nottingham 32.23 0.22 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 0.38 31.85 29.59

16 West Bridgford Town Centre 21.12 0.02 0.1% 0.1% 0.02 21.10 19.42

17 Ilkeston Town Centre 71.01 0.12 0.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.97 70.04 65.09

17 Kingsway Retail Park, Kingsway, Derby 82.28 0.14 0.2% 0.2% 0.14 82.14 75.19

17 Meteor Centre, Mansfield Road, Derby 34.99 0.06 0.2% 0.2% 0.06 34.93 32.01

17 Ripley Town Centre 88.93 0.15 0.2% 3.0% 3.2% 2.82 86.11 81.39

18 Derby City Centre 642.73 4.40 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 6.33 636.40 587.29

18 Spondon Local Centre 21.78 0.02 0.1% 0.1% 0.02 21.76 19.89

18 Wyvern Retail Park, Wyvern Way, Derby 89.96 0.15 0.2% 0.2% 0.15 89.81 82.26

19 East Midlands Designer Outlet, Sth Normanton 42.13 0.63 1.5% 1.5% 0.63 41.50 38.72

19 Giltbrook Retail Park, Ikea Way, Nottingham 152.03 0.29 0.2% 1.4% 2.1% 3.7% 5.61 146.42 139.34

19 Hucknall Town Centre 67.75 0.12 0.2% 3.9% 4.1% 2.76 64.99 62.32

19 Mansfield Town Centre 428.88 1.47 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 2.33 426.55 394.96

19 Sutton-in-Ashfield Town Centre 37.57 0.06 0.2% 0.2% 0.06 37.51 34.57

20 Retford Town Centre 106.79 0.38 0.4% 0.4% 0.38 106.41 98.61

20 Worksop Town Centre 102.35 0.35 0.3% 0.3% 0.35 102.00 94.56

Secondary Catchment Area Total 8,503.19 54.53 0.6% - 148.03 8,355.16 7,766.73

External Centres 1,480.52 9.40 - 1,352.44

Total 11,045.38 73.69 - 10,087.11

[1] Trade diversion based on weighted market shares of centres (Sub-Appendix 7, Table 4)

[2] Rushden Lakes, East Northamptonshire - Rushden Lakes Inquiry, DCLG Decision Letter, June 2014

[3] Eastpoint, Daleside Road, Nottingham - Retail and Economic Assessment, Signet Planning, March 2014

[4] Extension to Victoria Centre, Nottingham - Retail and Leisure Impact Assessment, NLP, June 2011

[5] Giltbrook Retail Park, Broxtowe - Planning and Retail Statement, WYG, October 2014

[6] Castle Acres Shopping Park, Leicester - Retail Assessment Update, Quod, May 2016


Table 2: Cumulative Impact of Proposed Development (Phases 1 and 2) in 2025 with additional commitments

Centres Turnover

from

residents

Residual

Turnover

Turnover

2016

Zone £m £m %

Rushden

Lakes

%

Eastpoint,

Nott'm

%

Northgate

Newark %

Uffington

Road,

Stamford %

Giltbrook

Retail Park,

Broxtowe

%

Castle

Acres,

Leicester

% % £m £m £m

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]




































Solus Impact of Scheme

[1]Trade Diversion to Commitments Cumulative Impact







































Total 11,958.55 122.50 - 10,087.11




[4] Extension to Victoria Centre, Nottingham - Retail and Leisure Impact Assessment, NLP, June 2011


Table 3: Cumulative Impact of Proposed Development (Phase 1) in 2022 with revised weightings and additional commitments

Centres Turnover

from

residents

Residual

Turnover

Turnover

2016

Zone £m £m %

Rushden

Lakes

%

Eastpoint,

Nott'm

%

Northgate

Newark

%

Uffington

Road,

Stamford

%

Giltbrook

Retail

Park,

Broxtowe

%

Castle

Acres,

Leicester

% % £m £m £m

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]
































Solus Impact of

Scheme [1]Trade Diversion to Commitments Cumulative Impact

Total 11,045.38 73.69 - 10,087.11




[4] Northgate, Newark - Retail Impact Assessment, PBA, December 2015

[5] Uffington Road, Stamford - Retail Planning Assessment, Peacock & Smith, October 2011




Table 4: Cumulative Impact of Proposed Development (Phases 1 and 2) in 2025 with revised weightings and additional commitments

Centres Turnover

from

residents

Residual

Turnover

Turnover

2016

Zone £m £m %

Rushden

Lakes

%

Eastpoint,

Nott'm

%

Northgate

Newark

%

Uffington

Road,

Stamford

%

Giltbrook

Retail

Park,

Broxtowe

%

Castle

Acres,

Leicester

% % £m £m £m

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]
































Solus Impact of

Scheme [1]Trade Diversion to Commitments Cumulative Impact

Total 11,958.55 122.50 - 10,087.11




[4] Northgate, Newark - Retail Impact Assessment, PBA, December 2015

[5] Uffington Road, Stamford - Retail Planning Assessment, Peacock & Smith, October 2011



gdov supplemantary ria sept 2017 - southkesteven.gov.uk

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