gcr world bank-1siteresources.worldbank.org/inthousingland/resources/339552... · egypt’s...

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CAIRO, EGYPT

Tackling the Shelter Challenge of Cities

Thinking it Through Together

Dr. Hazem El KouediChairman

Dr. Mostafa MadboulyDirector -Technical Office

General Organization for Physical Planning,Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Development

World BankApril 30, 2007

National ContextPopulation

Egypt’s population is estimated at 73 million in 2006 living on 5.5% of the total area of the country (55,000 km2 out of one million)

Population is projected to reach 94 million by 2020 and 101 million by 2025

An addition of almost 1.35 million annually

55% rural and 45% urban

Over the period 2005-2020, 14 million will be added to urban population- almost one million a year.

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UrbanizationUrbanization has been very rapid --expansion of urban built-up areas took place mostly within informal and squatter settlements on the peripheries of cities, with inadequate infrastructure and services.

About 18-20 million live in informal or squatter settlements.

Rapid urban expansion resulted in encroachments on agricultural land. Total prime agricultural land lost to urbanization during the period 1952-2002 amounts to 300,000 acres.

Housing and Urban Services

Egypt faces a shortage of affordable housing supply for the poor despite the presence of 5 million vacant units.

About 440,000-600,000 new housing units are needed annually between now and 2020, of which 300,000 for low income households.

According to the new census of 2006, there are 6 million vacant units

Without enough affordable housing for the poor neither strict regulations nor heavy land protection enforcements can stop the expansion of squatter and informal settlements (i.e. an alternative practical option for informality is needed),

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National EconomyThe national economy grew at a rate of 3.4% (2003-2004) and exceeded 6% (2005-2006)

The manufacturing and services sectors (including tourism), and revenues from the Suez Canal-- are the fastest growing economic sectors

National unemployment rate is now about 11% (CAPMAS, 2006)

Unemployment is even higher among the educated and the young.

The economy needs to create at least 560,000 new jobs annually for the unemployed and new entrants in the labor market.

Greater Cairo Region: key Challenges

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Greater Cairo Region within the National Urban Context

Since its establishment more than 1000 years ago, Cairo has continued to represent the main historical, economic and urban pole for Egypt

Being the seat of Government and the concentration of main services and facilities have contributed to the excessive growth of the region

The previous approach adopted by the government to mitigate this centralization problem has led to further development of the region (e.g., new urban communities around the region)

The Development of urban built-up area of GCR

Within the last three decades, the total built-up area increased more than

270%

In 1900, the total builtIn 1900, the total built--up area is 42 km2up area is 42 km2

In 1950, 120 km2In 1950, 120 km2

In 1970, 198,2 km2In 1970, 198,2 km2

ية رانعم التلةالك

)2آم (

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900

1950

1970

1980

200العام0

In 2000, 524,4 km2In 2000, 524,4 km2

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22% of the total population of the country 43% of the total urban population

The Current Situation of GCR in 2006

The total population of the region is 14 million in addition to 1.2 million in new cities

55% of total high education 46% of total number of hospitals’ beds40% of pharmacies 43% of total job employment in the public sector 40% of total job employment in the private sector

The Region accommodates:

The Current and Expected Population in the GCR

New Urban Communities

1.2 million 6.8 million

Built-up area 14 million 17.2 million2006 2022

Total 24 million

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Source: Sims, David and Séjourné, Marion. Understanding Cairo (2006)

Extent of Informal Settlements in GCR

Greater Cairo Previous Planning Efforts

First Master Plan in 1970

Long term Development Master Plan 1983 with IUERIF Institute, Paris

First update of the master plan 1991

Second update in 1997

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First Master Plan in 1970

Target year is 1990

Planning area is 685,000 acres

Population is 6.1 million in 1966

Expected 14 million by 1990

Long term development master plan 1983Creation of small urban settlements and new satellite cities

being connected through development corridors

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Dividing the exiting built-up area into 16 homogenous sectors in addition to 10 new urban settlements

Long term development master plan 1983

Population is 10 million in 1982 and expected to be 16 million by 2002.

Long term development master plan 1983

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First Update in 1991

Second Update in 1997

Population is 13 million in 1993 and expected to be 24 million in 2022

Combining several new urban settlements into one or more new city or new urban community

oCombining new settlements No. 1,3,5 to be New CairooCombining 6A and 6B to be Sheikh Zaied City

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New Towns : Phase I (end of the 1970s)


New Towns Up To the Mid 1980s


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New Towns in the Early 1990s


New Towns in the 2000s


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The current situation for Greater Cairo Region

The previous urban plan of 1997 expected that the Region population will reach 24 million by the year 2020 which means 9 millions more than the current population , considering that capacity of the new cities can absorb about 5.6 million of this increase and the rest will be in the existing urban built-up areas.

The existing trend of unplanned development indicates that the GCR population will exceed 28 million by year 2020 which necessitate:

Controlling the GCR urban growth to guarantee that its population will not exceed the planned capacity withinin its boundaries

Channeling the expected development directions to the planned areas to absorb this development

Greater Cairo is comprised of 3 Governorates – Cairo (8 million), Giza (3.5 million), and Shubra El-Kheima and other areas from Qualiobya (2.5 million),

It also includes 8 ‘New cities’ which are not managed by the Governorates, but by the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA)

Over 50% households live in informal settlements, out of which 82% built on agricultural land. More than 90% have access to utilities

Greater Cairo Density: 40,000 p/km2 (estimated 2000)

CAIRO

Spatial

Economic

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Most Informal Development is on Private Agricultural Land


Informal Housing is Generally of Solid Construction Quality…

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… But Informal Growth Has Not Been Well Guided

Urban fabric in squatter settlements Manshiet Nasser Urban fabric on agricultural land, Imbâba

Urban fabric in a legal district, Muhandisin Urban fabric in a legal district, Muhandisin

Source: Ikonos 2000

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Citizens satisfaction by selected services

Egypt

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %Sewerage

Water

Garbage

Electricity

Transport

Road maintenance

Slaughter&Market

Parks

Documents

PostCairo

Zagazig

Source: Municipal Management & Decentralization: A Service Delivery Perspective- A Review of Experience in Eight Middle East & North Africa Countries, The World Bank, June 2006.

Source of 43% of the public sector employment and 40% of industrial private sector employment

Accounts for over 50% of national GDP and 40% of manufacturing outputs

Main function/economic activities in each governorate?

The shift from old industries to new highly productive activities translated into:

― a shift to private sector industry― the rise of a new industrial belt along the most

successful New Towns very close to Cairo taking over the old industrial zones located in the city

― competitive services activities, including improving linkages between research and industries, access to telecom services, better financial services

― the conversion of old industrial sites

CAIRO

Spatial

Economic

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Is the current spatial fabric the most efficient?

To what extent have new towns and satellite cities met the population target, and if only some are successful, why?

Is the economic function of the Metro area well defined? It is now industrial, services, tourism, financial, SMEs, real estate, among others? Should it be defined/focused around harmonized and competitive clusters? What are best practices of mega cities in this regard?

Global experiences in regard to relocation of ministries from down town and polluting industries/workshops from core urban areas.

CHALLENGES

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

Current mechanism of Public Land Tenure and Disposition is complex, contradictory and overlapping as:

Public land is classified into 3 main categories with different controlling entities within each one;9 Ministries have direct or indirect control over land in addition to 3 Governorates;4 Sectoral entities (affiliated to line ministries) have substantial control over public land; Two-hat problem: Sectoral ministries act both as regulators & developers (sometimes through holding for-profit companies); and Large number of laws, by-laws & decrees creates a very complicated network of rules & procedures to release public land for investment & development.

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

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Consequences:

Mismatch between responsibilities assigned to Governorates & the local economic development tools at their disposal;Unrealistic, archaic boundary delimiting Governorate control over public land;Uncoordinated sectoral policies & plans;Existing pecking order for control over public land among sectoral agencies does not follow an economic rationale;Complex institutional landscape complicates access to public land;Lack of policy framework and market-based allocation mechanisms for public land;Ineffective land use planning; and Lack of information & integrated database infrastructure.

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

The housing Challenge in GCR and Egypt generally:

Challenge is not about scarcity but distortions to the housing market caused by old policies that led in the past 4 decades to:a) a heavily subsidized public housing supply;

b) a mismatch between supply and demand; and c) severe curtailing of private sector investment in housing supply, especially in affordable housing and the rental sector.

As a result:GCR has been witnessing fast growth of informal housing (over 50% households live in informal settlements, 82% built on agricultural land).

Current subsidy per housing unit (amounts to 70-75% of total development cost, inclusive of infrastructure and the opportunity cost of land) overburdens state budget.Large number of vacant units

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

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The CGR is the preeminent transport center of Egypt accommodating over 20 million motorized person trips and 7 million non-motorized trips daily. About 2/3 of all motorized trips are made by public transport through a combination of heavy rail, light rail, conventional buses, mini- and micro-buses, and taxis.As a result of rapidly increasing population, and inadequate government responses, transportation conditions have deteriorated and the capacity of the GCR’s transport systems to manage demand from the growing urban population is nearing the breaking point. The average travel speed in a business day does not exceed 10km/h, with many areas experiencing 5-6km/h during rush hours. The annual cost to the national economy due to congestion was estimated in 2000 at LE1.5 billion ($400 million). While the current car ownership rate is still low, it will only take a small increase to bring about a dramatic worsening of the traffic congestion that is amongst the worst in the world.

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

Difficulties for users and operators alike are due to a number of factors, including:

(i) complex and fragmented institutional structures that lack clarity on roles and decision-making responsibilities;

(ii) serious traffic congestion (80% of intersections in center Cairo and Giza are saturated);

(iii) poor passenger transport system (only 4km of metro/1 million inhabitants [Bangkok=20, Sao Paolo= 31, Paris=150km of metro/1 million inhabitants];

(iv) severe shortage of high capacity bus supply: 300/1 million inhabitants [Bangkok=1737, Sao Paolo=1020, Paris=1800 high capacity buses /1 million inhabitants];

(v) high accident rate (more than 1000 deaths and 4000 injuries/year);

(vi) air and noise pollution (about 15 million tons of CO2/year); and

(vii) inadequate and unsustainable financial arrangements.

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

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Recently, World Bank assisted in preparing an Urban Transport Strategy giving priority to Mass Transport Systems and Financial Sustainability. The underlying principle of the Strategy is to establish “Efficient, Environmental Friendly and Affordable Urban Transport Services in Greater Cairo”.

The building blocks are: (i) establishing efficient urban transport institutions; (ii) sustainable urban transport funding; (iii) an efficient public transport system; and (iv) improved traffic management practices.

Several investments are currently envisaged under public-private partnership (PPP), including dedicated bus lanes in major thoroughfares, building a west-wing expressway with a public transport corridor.

A follow-up Bank project is sought to finance priority investment needs, including upgrading of the Heliopolis surface tram and its extension to New Cairo City under PPP (PPIAF is underway).

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

A fragmented and incoherent institutional framework for local management and service delivery: GCR is not a legal entity; it is a contiguous metropolitan area that is administratively under the jurisdiction of three governorates, in addition to NUCA (for new towns and satellites).

Different service delivery authorities do not follow the same jurisdictions- regional authorities with responsibility for service planning and delivery for the whole region, e.g. Cairo Transport Authority, and Cairo Water and Sanitation Companies.

In other cases, there are multiple decentralized entities in charge of service delivery (e.g. solid waste collection, local roads, street lighting, inf O&M, etc. )

Not surprisingly, the challenge of coordination and unclear/overlapping jurisdiction complicates local management and service delivery.

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

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Should it be run as one metropolitan management system?

Should establish an executive agency headed by a professional manager report to a Board of Directors in which the 3 Governors sit?

Global experiences in regard to info and database system? Service standards, benchmarks and system of M&E?

CHALLENGE

Spatial & Economic

Land& Housing

UrbanTransport

UrbanManagement

The unplanned growth of the built-up areaThe excessive pressure on infrastructure Environmental degradation and high rates of pollution Major traffic and transportation problems within the

regionLack of coherent institutional framework to manage

the regionWeak connectivity between existing built-up area and

new urban communities The economic competitiveness of the region

Conclusion: The Main Challenges facing the GCR due to the Population Increase