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ClimateChangeandAgricultureinPakistan:AdaptationStrategiestoCopewithNegativeImpacts

TECHNICALREPORT·JUNE2009

DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.1547.5041

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Research Report GCISC–RR–16

Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan: Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts

M. Mohsin Iqbal, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Humaira Sultana, Sajida Ali Noor, Muhammad Mudasser , Kashif Majeed Salik, Syed Sajidin Hussain, Arshad M. Khan

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan

Research Report GCISC-RR-16

Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan: Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts

Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Humaira Sultana, Sajida Ali Noor, Muhammad Mudasser, Kashif Majeed Salik, Syed Sajidin Hussain

Arshad Muhammad Khan

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex

Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad, Pakistán

Published by: Global Change Impact studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Shahdra Road Islamabad-44000 Pakistan ISBN: 978-969-9395-15-4 @ GCISC Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement. Published in: June 2009 This Report may be cited as follows: Iqbal, M, M., M.A. Goheer, H. Sultana, S.A. Noor, M. Mudasser, K.M. Salik, S.S. Hussain and A.M. Khan, (2009), Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan: Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts, GCISC-RR-16, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

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CONTENTS

Foreword …………………………………………………………. i Preface……………………………………………………………… ii List of Tables ………………………………………………………... iii List of Figures ………………………………………………………. iv

1. Global Climate Change……………………………………………… 1 2. Impacts on Agriculture……………………………………………… 2

2.1 Past/Current impacts………………………………………....2

2.2 Future impacts…………………………………………...........3

3. Vulnerability of agricultural system to climate change………….. ..4 4. Agriculture in Pakistan …………………………………………....... 5 5. Climate Change studies in Pakistan………………………………….6 6. Impacts on crop productivity in Pakistan…………………………... 9 7. Need for adaptation…………………………………………………....10 8. Adaptation studies at GCISC…………………………………..….... 10

Wheat………………………………………………………………………… .10 Alterations in sowing windows…………….....................................................10 Improving irrigation water use efficiency………….......................................12 Irrigation scheduling at critical growth stages…….. ………………………14 Impacts of climate change and water resources on wheat production…….15 Rice…………………………………………………………………………….18 Dry sowing vs transplanting ………………………........................................18 Optimization of transplanting dates ………………. ……………………….19

9. Other adaptation options……………………………………………...20 10. Conclusions …………………………………………………………....22

References ……………………………………………………………..24

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F O R E W O R D

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2002 as a dedicated research centre for climate change and other global change related studies, at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, NI, HI, SI , the then Special Advisor to Chief Executive of Pakistan. The Centre has since been engaged in research on past and projected climate change in different sub regions of Pakistan, corresponding impacts on the country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture, and adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts. The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and was supported in part by APN (Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research), Kobe, Japan, through its CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled “Enhancement of national capabilities in the application of simulation models for assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and agricultural production”, awarded to GCISC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). It is hoped that the report will provide useful information to national planners and policymakers as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan. The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning Commission, and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed, Rector, National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning Group, APN, throughout the course of this work are gratefully acknowledged.

Dr. Arshad M. Khan Executive Director, GCISC

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P R E F A C E

This Report contains the work done in the Agriculture Section of Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) on the application of Crop Growth Simulation Models, CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice, for studying some possible adaptation strategies and identifying appropriate measures to counter the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in Pakistan. The crop simulation modelling work in Pakistan got an impetus, for the first time, after organization of an International Workshop by GCISC in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2004, under the framework of a 3-year APN CAPaBLE project (No. 2005-CRP01CMY-Khan), coordinated by GCISC. The participating countries of the Project were Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The Project helped build capacity of scientists from various organizations in these countries in crop simulation modelling. The impacts of climate change on the two major cereal crops of Pakistan, namely wheat and rice, were studied at GCISC using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice models, and their results reported in Research Reports (GCISC-RR-14 and GCISC-RR-15). It was found that the yield of wheat will have negative impacts in the northern sub-mountainous region, southern semi-arid plains and southern arid plains while positive impacts only in the northern mountainous region. The yield of rice will also face negative impact in the semi-arid plains. In the light of these studies, efforts were made at GCISC to identify and analyze some adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts of climate change. This work and its results are described in this report. The adaptation strategies studied and described in this Report include: Alteration in sowing window for wheat; Improving water use efficiency by increasing the number of irrigations with total quantity of irrigation water remaining the same; Irrigation scheduling of wheat at critical water-sensitive growth stages; Different method of sowing of Basmati rice (conventional transplanting vs dry sowing); Optimization of transplanting dates of rice, etc. Some other possible adaptation measures related to crop, soil, water use, farm management, and policy improvement were also identified. Further work on studying other aspects of adaptation using crop simulation models, such as technological interventions involving better fertilizer usage, irrigation efficiency improvement, pest and disease control, weed control, and strategies for other major crops is planned.

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List of Tables

Table 1 Farm size in Pakistan 5 Table 2 DSSAT-based families of crop simulation models acquired by GCISC 8 Table 3 DSSAT-based crop simulation models currently in use at GCISC 9 Table 4 Growing season length as influenced by temperature and sowing dates in high-mountainous and sub-mountainous areas of Pakistan 12 Table 5 Impact of irrigation rescheduling on wheat yield 15 Table 6 Water use efficiency for Transplanting and direct seeding of rice 18 Table 7 Yields of transplanted and direct-seeded rice under different number of irrigations 19 Table 8 Effect of planting method on growth phases of anthesis and maturity 19 Table 9 Simulated grain yields under optimal growing season 20

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List of Figures

Figure 1 The simulated wheat yield under nine sowing dates as influenced by increase in temperature 12 Figure 2 Impact of change in CO2 concentration, temperature 14 and water availability on wheat yield Figure 3 Change in wheat area under varying climate and water supply for sustaining baseline wheat production 17 Figure 4 Optimization of planting date of rice under temperature and CO2 change 20

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Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan: Adaptation Strategies to Cope with the Negative Impacts

1. Global Climate Change The climate change is very much happening leading inter alia to global temperature increases. The Fourth Assessment Report of Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes that that ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level’. They have further provided data leading to high confidence that warming has been due to the globally averaged net effect of human activities (IPCC, SPM, WG-I, 2007). The warming has been more intense during the past decade; 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global temperatures (since 1850). The linear warming trend over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios. Model experiments showed that even if all radiative forcing agents were held constant at year 2000 level, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of 0.1°C per decade. Global warming is primarily the result of increased Greenhouse Gases (mainly CO2, CH4 and N2O). The small concentrations of these gases within the atmosphere cause warming of atmosphere by insulating the earth from heat loss like a blanket on our bed. Since the start of Industrial Revolution in 1750’s, the influence of human activities on climate has picked up tremendously resulting in an increase in the concentration of Greenhouse gases (GHG) which now far exceed the pre-industrial values (CO2 280 ppm, CH4715 ppb and N2O 270 ppb, determined by ice cores spanning many thousands of years) to 379 ppm, 1774 ppb and 319 ppb respectively in 2005. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above the current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed in the 20th century (IPCC, 2007). Carbon dioxide, among GHGs, is the most important anthropogenic gas. The annual carbon dioxide concentration growth rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995-2005 average: 1.9 ppm per year) than it had been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 average: 1.4 ppm per year) although there is year to year variability in growth rates. For agricultural crops, higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere may be beneficial as they increase the growth of crops. This is mainly through their effect on crop’s photosynthetic process, as higher levels of carbon dioxide mean that plants absorb more of it – a process known as carbon dioxide fertilization. The increased photosynthetic activity, however, cannot compensate the negative impacts the higher temperatures are exerting on various ecosystems.

2. Impacts on Agriculture In developing countries, nearly 70% of people live in rural areas where agriculture is the largest supporter of livelihood. Growth in agricultural incomes in developing countries prompts the demand for non-basic goods and services fundamental to human development. According to FAO (2004), livelihoods of roughly 450 million of the world’s poorest people are entirely dependent on managed ecosystems including agriculture. These systems are highly sensitive/vulnerable to climate change. Some of the key impacts identified by IPCC are listed below. 2.1 Past/Current Impacts

1. Modelling studies suggest crop yield losses with minimal warming in the tropics. Temperate crops benefit from a small amount of warming (~+2°C) but decline after that.

2. Carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase with warmth but fall once optimal photosynthetic temperatures are exceeded. The CO2 effect may be relatively greater, compared to irrigated crops, for crops under moisture stress.

3. Recent results from Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) studies of CO2 fertilization confirm conclusions from TAR that crop yields at 550 ppm CO2 concentration increase by an average of 17% (Long et al. 2004). Crop model estimates of CO2 fertilization are in the range of FACE results (Tubiello et al. 2006).

4. Crop modelling studies that include extremes in addition to changes in mean climate show lower yields than for changes in means alone (Porter and Semenov, 2005).

5. Rainfed wheat grown at 450 ppm CO2 showed that yield increases upto 0.8°C warming and then declines beyond 1.5°C warming; additional irrigation was needed to counterbalance the negative effects (Xiao et al. 2005).

6. Potential negative yield impacts are particularly pronounced in several regions where food security is already challenged and where the underlying natural resource base is already poor.

7. Climate changes increase irrigation demand in majority of world regions due to combination of increased evaporation from soil surface and increased transpiration from plant leaf surface arising from increased temperatures. This combines with decreased precipitation in some regions and poses a significant challenge to future food security.

8. There is very high confidence that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:

earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf unfolding, bird migration and

egg laying poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species High temperatures during flowering may lower CO2 fertilizing effect by

reducing grain number, size and quality (Caldwell et al. 2005; Baker et al. 2004; Thomas et al. 2003)

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9. The role of pests has become clearer. The poleward spread of diseases and pests which were previously found at lower latitudes is observed and predicted to continue. The magnitude of the overall effect is unknown but is likely to be highly regionalized.

10. Countries with greater wealth and natural resource endowments adapt more efficiently than those with less.

2.2 Future Impacts

1. Substantial decreases in cereal production potential in Asia could be likely by the end of this century as a consequence of climate change. However, regional differences in the response of wheat, maize and rice yields to projected climate change are likely to be significant (Parry et al. 1999, Rozenweig et al. 2001).

2. Crop simulation modelling studies based on future climate scenarios indicate that substantial losses are likely in rainfed wheat in South and Southeast Asia (Fischer at al. 2002). In South Asia, the drop in yields in non-irrigated wheat and rice will be significant for a temperature increase greater than 2.5°C, incurring a loss in farm level net revenue between 0 and 25% (Kumar and Parekh, 1998). The net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline at least between 4 to 10% by the end of this century under the most conservative climate change scenarios (Lal, 2005).

3. Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of upto 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions

4. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger.

5. Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease.

6. Increase in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.

7. Drought affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment food risk.

8. Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming.

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3. Vulnerability of agricultural system to climate change Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. It is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system, e.g. agriculture, is exposed, and its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability of agriculture system to climate change differs across regions and across populations within regions. Regional differences in baseline climate and expected climate change give rise to different exposures to climate stimuli. The vulnerability can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. Non-climate stresses can increase vulnerability to climate change by reducing resilience and can also reduce adaptive capacity because of resource allocation to competing needs. Vulnerable regions face multiple stresses that affect their exposure and sensitivity as well as their capacity to adapt. These stresses arise from, for example, current climate hazard, poverty and unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalization, conflict and incidence of diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Malaria, etc. The productivity of agricultural system is driven by a number of physical, chemical and biological processes and is affected by inter-annual, monthly and daily distribution of climate variables, e.g. temperature, radiation, precipitation, water vapour pressure in the air and wind speed. In some areas, such as hyper arid areas, water resources are already stressed and are highly vulnerable, with intense competition for water supply. Total seasonal precipitation as well as its pattern of variability (Olesen and Bindi, 2002) are both of major importance for agricultural system. Prevailing temperatures determine crop performance when moisture conditions are met. Similarly, when temperature requirements are met, the growth of a crop is dependent on how well its growth cycle fits within the period when water is available. Current vulnerability to climate variability thus depends not only on exposure and sensitivity to these climatic conditions, but on resources and institutions and on the capacity to cope with or adapt to changing conditions including extreme events. It is both hazard- and context-dependent (Brooks, et al 2005). The impacts, adaptive capacity and vulnerability may vary from region to region and even within regions. These differences give rise to key concerns for each region.

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4. Agriculture in Pakistan In Pakistan, agriculture is the mainstay of national economy. It contributes 24% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), accounts for 60-70% of country’s exports, provides livelihood to 68% of the country’s population living in rural areas and employs 42% of the national labor force. The foremost challenge to agriculture sector is provision of livelihood and other basic needs of the growing population without irreversibly damaging the fragile ecosystem. Being open to vagaries of nature, this sector is highly vulnerable to climate change phenomena. The climate change and variability will impact food and agriculture due to the effects on plant growth and yield of elevated CO2, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased climate variability, as well as modified weed, pest and pathogen pressure. The key climate-related vulnerabilities in respect of agriculture sector in Pakistan include:

• Heat stress on crops due to increasing temperatures • Water shortages – due to increased evapotranspiration and low rainfall in dry

areas • Erratic and uncertain rainfall pattern • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events of floods, drought

and cyclones • Lack of general awareness about climate change repercussions • Lack of adaptive capacity to adverse climate impacts due to lack of technical

know how and low financial resources

The communities/regions most vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan are: • Small land holders: 99% of the farmers in Pakistan have land area of 10 hectares

(ha) or less, corresponding to 79% of the farmed area (Table 1). Table1. Farm size in Pakistan

Farm Size (ha) % of Farms Farmed Area (%)

< 5 86 44

5-20 13 35

> 20 1 21

(Source: GoP, 2007).

Farmers in the arid and hyper arid regions: Out of total cultivated area of Pakistan of 22.51 million ha (mha), 2.5 mha (10%) are semi-arid, 10.7 mha are arid (48%) and 7.3 mha (32%) are hyper-arid, based on the Aridity Index of Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). Province-wise, the dry areas constitute 23% of the cultivated area of Punjab, 54% of Sindh, and 60% of both NWFP (North West Frontier Province) and Baluchistan.

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• Farmers of degraded lands: About 17% of land in Pakistan is prone to water erosion, 7.6% to wind erosion, 5.1% to water-logging, and 8.6% to salinity and sodicity. Also, more than 95% of soils are poor in organic matter having less than 1% organic matter content, hence need some sort of external nutrition in the form of commercial fertilizers or organic manures.

• Farmers of mountainous regions: The mountain ecosystems are very fragile as slight changes in weather parameters can have far reaching effects on their agriculture, livelihood and food security.

• Farmers of coastal area: The coastal areas are at risk of rising sea level in the wake of global warming as well as of incursion of sea water. The mangrove reserves in the coastal areas of Karachi are already reported to have declined.

• Farmers of deltaic region: In view of inadequate quantities of river water to repulse the tidal waves in certain years, there can be instances of sea water intrusion into deltaic region with the consequences of increased salinization of soil, shortage of fresh drinking water, crop failures or serious losses in crop yields.

5. Climate change studies in Pakistan Given that Pakistan has a varied type of climate ranging from sub-zero temperatures in the north to above 50°C in the south, a diversity of ecosystems, and a large farming sector with a high level of dependence on irrigation, the impact of changing climate on its society can be wide ranging. The climate change particularly an increase in temperature with a decrease in precipitation would have negative impacts on the production of major agricultural commodities. Some of the earlier studies related to climate change undertaken by Ministry of Environment in collaboration with other national and international organizations are listed below.

i) The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy (1992): The report, prepared by the Government of Pakistan (Environment and Urban Affairs Division) in collaboration with IUCN-The World Conservation Union and funded by CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency), provides national perceptions for planning the development of different sectors of national economy within the context of a National Environmental Plan. Regarding climate change, the report stated, that implications for Pakistan could be potentially large, affecting patterns of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and that like other countries, Pakistan needs to consider possible effects of global climate change on its developmental plans.

ii) Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues

(1992-1994): The report, supported by funding from Asian Development Bank (ADB) and finalized in 1994, provided an analysis of Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate events and recommended the technical and economic feasibility of options that could be undertaken to adapt to climate change and also limit GHG emissions or enhance their sinks. A national response strategy was also proposed as part of the study (GoP, 2003).

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iii) Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy (ALGAS): Funded largely by Asian

Development Bank and completed in 1998, ALGAS project involved 12 Asian nations including Pakistan. The report included the formulation of national GHG abatement strategies consistent with national development priorities, and the preparation of a portfolio of GHG abatement projects and national action plans embodying national development objectives (ALGAS, 1998).

iv) Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations

Assessment (1996-1998): The study was carried out in implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which aims at stabilization of GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system. Pakistan is a party to this convention. Completed in 1998 through the assistance of GEF-UNEP, the study helped assess the impacts of climate change on four major sectors of economy, namely agriculture, forestry, water resources and meteorology. In the Agriculture sector, the impact of climate change on spatial boundaries; growing degree days; growth, yield and water use of wheat, rice and maize crops was studied in the four climatic zones of Pakistan representing humid, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid climates. The present climate change studies in the area of impacts and adaptation have benefited from the work undertaken in the project (GoP/UNEP/GEF, 1998).

v) CICERO report on Developing strategies for climate change (2000): The

study mentioned at 5(iii) above was monitored and reviewed continuously by holding three national Workshops in which national and international experts provided by CICERO (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway) participated. In 2000, CICERO summarized the results of the above study in a Four-Country Report including Antigua & Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia and Pakistan. The report provided a basic foundation for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation measures necessary to address them (CICERO, 2003).

vi) First National Communication on Climate Change (2003): Having been an

active member of ‘Global Commons’, Pakistan signed the UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the treaty on June 1, 1994. Fulfilling its national obligation as a signatory to UNFCCC, the Government of Pakistan prepared the First National Communication on Climate Change in 2003. Although Pakistan contributes very little to overall global GHG emissions, the report presents a national GHG inventory and identifies sources and sinks of direct and indirect GHGs. The GHG inventory preparation builds on the earlier work on inventory undertaken as part of the ALGAS Project. The report attempts to provide detailed analysis of issues confronting Pakistan climate change planners (GoP, 2003). The report was funded by GEF through UNEP.

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vii) Establishment of Global Change Impact Studies Centre (2002-03): The systematic and planned research work related to climate change in Pakistan became possible after the establishment of Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) in 2002-03. The Centre was established at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to Prime Minister of Pakistan. The Centre set out to study the impacts of climate change on important sectors of national economy such as Water resources, Agriculture, Food security, Energy, Environment, Biodiversity, Health, etc. The efforts were bolstered by approval/award of a 3-year Regional APN CAPaBLE Project in 2003, prepared by GCISC, by Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan. Pakistan was the lead country and Nepal and Bangladesh were the two partner countries. The objective of the Project is to build/enhance national capacities of the participating countries in the application of Simulation Models for assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and agricultural production.

Under this Project, the Agriculture Section of GCISC acquired a Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) incorporating a family of crop models, from Dr. G. Hoogenboom and his group of University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA (Table 2). Necessary training to selected scientists from the participating countries was provided by Dr. Hoogenboom during a two-week ‘South Asia Training Workshop on Crop Simulation Modelling’ organized by GCISC at Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from June 28-July 9, 2004. For the past three years, the Section has done work using some of these models (Table 3) on assessment of impacts of climate change on productivity of wheat and rice in different agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. Before actual studies on impacts, the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice models were calibrated and evaluated under local conditions (Iqbal et al. 2007a and 2007b). Table 2. DSSAT-based families of crop simulation models acquired by GCISC

Models Crops CERES (for Cereals) Corn, Wheat, Rice, Barley, Sorghum, Millet

CROPGRO (for Grain Legumes and Fiber crops)

Soybean, Peanut, Dry Bean, Chickpea, Cotton

CROPSIM (for Root Crops) Potato, Cassava

Oilseed Crops Sunflower Vegetables Bell pepper, Cabbage, Tomato Other Crops Sugarcane, Pasture

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Table 3. DSSAT based crop simulation models currently in use at GCISC

Crop Crop Model Use at GCISC

Wheat CERES-Wheat In use Rice CERES-Rice In use Potato SUBSTOR-Potato Being tested Cotton Cotton-GRO Being tested

The researchers in Agriculture Section then studied impacts of changing climate on major crops of Pakistan. They studied current effects of increasing temperature and Carbon dioxide levels on growing season length and yields of wheat and rice, using CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice models (Iqbal, et al. 2007a and 2007b). They are also studying likely future impacts of rising temperatures, in the wake of global warming, under IPCC-SRES A2 and B2 scenarios developed by GCISC for Pakistan from an ensemble of 17 GCMs (Islam, 2007). For wheat, the studies encompassed four agro-climatic zones, viz humid, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid areas of Pakistan, and for rice, semi-arid areas of Pakistan. 6. Impacts on crop productivity in Pakistan The impacts of climatic parameters on wheat and rice productivity in Pakistan have been described in detail in two separate reports prepared by GCISC under APN CAPaBLE project (Iqbal et al., 2007a and 2007b). A list of these impacts has been mentioned here in relation to possible adaptation measures.

• For wheat, the impact of increasing temperature on growing season length was studied in Northern mountainous region (represented by Shangla district, near Gilgit), Northern sub-mountainous region (represented by Islamabad district), Southern semi-arid plains (represented by Faisalabad district) and Southern arid plains (represented by Bahawalpur district) using CERES-Wheat model. The results showed that increase in temperature resulted in reduction in growing season length in all the regions but at a faster rate in the Mountainous region compared to arid and semiarid plains.

• The impact on yield of wheat, of rise in temperature in the same regions, showed

that yield increased in the mountainous region but decreased in the sub-mountainous, arid and semi-arid regions.

• The increase in CO2 concentration was found to have a positive effect on yield in

all the regions, due to CO2 fertilization effect.

• With the increase of ambient CO2 to 550 ppm as compared to the current level of 380 ppm, the baseline wheat yield in the arid and semi-arid plains could be sustained for temperature increases upto 3°C. In the mountainous areas, the wheat

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yield at 550 ppm CO2 concentration will be higher than the base yield upto 5°C increase in temperature.

• For rice, the impact of increase in temperature on growing season length and yield

was studied in Semi-arid plains of Punjab, Pakistan (Sheikhupura district) using CERES-Rice model. The results showed that with rise in temperature by 1 and 5°C over baseline temperature, the growing season length was reduced, from108 days to 102 and 89 days, respectively.

• Regarding grain yield of rice, the rise in temperature at the ambient CO2 level of

360 ppm resulted in a decreasing trend. Increasing the CO2 level to 550 ppm, on the other hand, increased yield.

• Due to the combined effect of temperature and CO2 , the baseline rice yield could be sustained for temperature increases upto 1°C provided the ambient CO2 concentration level were to increase from 360 to 550 ppm.

7. Need for Adaptation The GCISC studies cited above as well as numerous other studies reported in literature, point to the negative effects of increase in global temperature on crop productivity resulting in possible production shortfalls. The magnitude of increase in temperature may vary from region to region and country to country. The effects may be direct or indirect. The direct effects range from reduction in yield, shortening of growing cycle of plants, sensitivity of reproductive growth stages to heat stress, increased evapotranspiration leading to increased crop water requirements, volatilization losses of surface-applied fertilizer nutrients, surge in insect pests and disease incidence after heavy rain spells, etc. The indirect effects include temporary or permanent excess or shortage of water supplies, and development of biological/physical processes in the soil profile exerting injurious effects on crop health, e.g. water-logging which may lead to salinization of soil, denitrification which may lead to losses of nitrogenous fertilizers, anoxic conditions which may lead to unavailability of certain nutrients, etc. Such negative effects call for some urgent coping mechanisms or adaptation measures to counter them. 8. Adaptation Studies at GCISC Adaptation refers to adjustment in natural or human system in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptations can be distinguished; e.g. anticipatory or reactive, private or public, and autonomous or planned. 8.1 Wheat 8.1.1 Alterations in sowing window

In the wake of global warming, the dry arid areas are likely to experience vulnerability of sensitive growth stages of wheat to high temperatures causing drastic

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reduction in yields whereas the colder mountainous areas are likely to benefit from rising temperatures as low temperature is the key stress in these areas. Aslam et al (2004) stated that analysis of historical climate data offered an opportunity for improvements in the wheat planting window and selection of wheat varieties accordingly. Keeping this in view, the option of change in sowing window was tried to evade the negative effects of high/low temperature on wheat yields in different agro ecological zones of the country and also to assess suitability of sowing date for timely sowing of next crop in the wheat based cropping pattern.

Nine sowing dates starting from 1st week of October to last week of December at 10-day interval were tried for wheat sowing in the mountainous and sub-mountainous areas. The simulation results showed that in the high-mountainous area, yields improved with an increase in temperature and a shift towards earlier planting from the current optimum planting date. Freezing temperatures (<0°C) prevail in December at high mountainous areas, so germination of wheat seed for which minimum biological threshold is 5°C (Hunsigi and Krishan, 1998; Balasubramaniyan and Planiappan, 2001) is difficult. In the sub-mountainous area, on the other hand, increase in temperature depressed crop yield mainly due to an accelerated rate of development and shorter growing cycle, and shift towards delayed planting improved yield.

Sowing windows

10 Oct.

20 Oct.

30 Oct.

10 Nov.

20 Nov.

30 Nov.

10 Dec.

20 Dec.

30 Dec.

10-Oct

20-Oct

30-Oct

10-Nov

20-Nov

30-Nov

10-Dec

20-Dec

30-Dec

Yield (Kg ha

-1)

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500Baseline1oC2oC 3oC4oC5oC

High-mountain area

Sub-mountain area

Figure 1: The simulated wheat yield under nine sowing dates as influenced by increase in temperature.

The data on Growing Season Length showed that as the sowing was delayed by 10 days, the growing season length (GSL) decreased on the average by 6 days (Table 4) while within each sowing date, the CERES-Wheat model estimated a decrease in GSL of 10 days per unit rise in temperature. Further, an average decrease of 10 days was noticed in the high-mountainous areas and of 6 days in the sub-mountainous areas. The maximum decrease occurred in December 30-sowing.

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Table 4. Growing season length (days after sowing), as influenced by temperature and sowing dates, in high-mountainous and sub-mountainous areas of Pakistan. a) High-mountainous areas

Growing season length (days after sowing) Sowing windows

Temperature

scenarios 10-Oct

20-Oct

30-Oct

10-Nov

20-Nov

30-Nov

10-Dec

20-Dec

30-Dec

av. diff. within a temp. scenario

av. of av. diff.

Baseline 263 259 257 252 246 239 231 224 215 -61˚C 250 246 243 239 232 226 218 211 203 -62˚C 239 234 232 227 221 215 207 201 193 -63˚C 229 225 221 217 211 205 198 192 184 -64˚C 220 216 212 208 202 196 190 184 176 -55˚C 211 207 204 199 194 188 182 176 169 -5

-6

av. diff. within a sowing date -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -10 -10 -10 -9

av. of av. Diff. -10

b) Sub-mountainous areas

Growing season length (Days after sowing) Sowing windows

Temperature

scenarios 10-Oct

20-Oct

30-Oct

10-Nov

20-Nov

30-Nov

10-Dec

20-Dec

30-Dec

av. diff. within a temp. scenario

av. of av. diff.

Baseline 174 172 169 165 161 156 151 145 138 -51˚C 167 165 162 159 155 150 145 139 133 -42˚C 159 157 156 152 149 144 140 134 129 -43˚C 151 150 149 146 144 139 135 129 124 -34˚C 143 143 142 141 138 134 130 125 120 -35˚C 134 136 136 134 133 129 126 121 116 -2

-3

av. diff. within a sowing date -8 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4

av. of av. Diff. -6

Improving irrigation water use efficiency Considering the future outlook of reduced surface water availability in the long run, applying additional water by increasing number of irrigation would not be a possible

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adaptation measure to offset the negative impact of temperature rise in semi-arid and arid areas of Pakistan. Therefore, the option of increasing the number of irrigations without increasing the baseline quantity of 225 mm water was tested by using CERES-Wheat simulation model. The baseline yield achieved by applying 225 mm water in 3 irrigations was compared with yields obtained from application of 150 mm water in 2 irrigations and 300 mm water in 4 irrigations with rise in temperature (1 to 50C) at 360 and 550 ppm CO2 concentration levels. The results are shown in Figure 2. It was found that reduction in water (150 mm in 2 irrigations) would not be able to sustain baseline wheat yield at any temperature and at any of the two CO2 concentration levels, in both semi-arid and arid areas. In case of application of increased water in 4 irrigations, wheat yield could be sustained at 10C increase in temperature at 360 ppm CO2 concentration, however, if CO2 level increases from 360 to 550 ppm, the baseline wheat yield can be sustained up to 3°C establishing the combined beneficial impact of rise in CO2 and irrigation water on wheat yield.

In other words, decreasing the quantity and frequency of irrigation water applied would depress the yield while increasing the amount of water applied in more frequent irrigations could help in sustaining baseline wheat yield in case of temperature increase. These results are in line with that of Hussain et al. (2003) and Hussain et al. (2005).

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(a)Semi Arid Areas

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1 2 3 4 5Tem perature Increase (°C)

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

(b)Arid Areas

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1 2 3 4 5Tem perature Increase (°C)

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

(c)

Overall (Semi Arid and Arid Areas)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1 2 3 4 5Temperature Increase (°C)

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

4irri_360ppm 2 irri_360ppm

4irri_550ppm 2 irri_550ppm

Figure 2: Impact of change in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability on wheat yield Irrigation scheduling at critical growth stages

Under the scenario of shortage of water supplies in the arid and semi-arid areas, the option of increasing the number of irrigations without increasing the total quantity of irrigation water during the growing season, i.e., 225 mm, was tested. The results are presented in Table 5. Increasing the number of irrigations to five (45 mm water per irrigation) instead of three (75 mm water per irrigation) had positive impact on wheat yield at 360 ppm CO2 concentration level. It helped sustain the baseline yields up to 3 and 50C increase in temperature in semi-arid and arid areas, respectively. On overall basis, the baseline yield might be sustained upto 40C increase in temperature at 360 ppm CO2 level. It is due to the reason that wheat is sensitive to water stress at the critical stages, viz., crown root initiation, tillering, late jointing, flowering and dough. For experiencing maximum yield, it requires non-stress conditions especially at these stages. Application of irrigation at each critical stage would result in dramatic increase in wheat yield by minimizing/removing water stress during production process.

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By increasing CO2 concentration from 360 to 550 ppm, the wheat yield showed an upward surge in arid areas in case of 5 irrigations as compared to baseline yield (Table 5). This may be attributed to beneficial double fertilization effect of high CO2 concentration which improved water use efficiency also (Dang et al, 2007). Under the present conditions, the baseline yield was sustained up to 50C increase in temperature.

These results corroborate the findings that by eliminating or minimizing water stress at critical growth stages by rescheduling irrigations, wheat yield might be improved significantly (Mogenson et al., 1985; Zhang et al., 1999). Moreover, irrigation rescheduling coupled with rise in CO2 concentration to 550 ppm might sustain baseline wheat yield up to 50C increase in temperature in the semi-arid and arid areas of Punjab, Pakistan. Thus, irrigation rescheduling might be an effective adaptation strategy for offsetting the negative impact of wheat yield under changing climatic conditions (English and Nakamura, 1989; Fredrick, 1997).

Table 5: Impact of irrigation rescheduling (5 irrigations of 45 mm each instead of 3 irrigations of 75 mm each, with no change in total water applied) on wheat yield. The yield values given (kg/ha) are from the application of five irrigations. The percentage differences from the respective Baseline yields from three irrigations are given in parentheses.

Semi Arid Arid Overall CO2 Level (ppm) CO2 Level (ppm) CO2 Level (ppm) Temperature

( °C) 360 550 360 550 360 550

1 4441 5077 3467 4159 3856 4526 (24.60) (42.44) (52.73) (83.20) (38.37) (62.39) 2 4096 4699 3133 3783 3518 4150 (14.92) (31.86) (38.00) (66.66) (26.22) (48.89) 3 3715 4294 2816 3435 3175 3779 (4.23) (20.49) (24.05) (51.32) (13.94) (35.58) 4 3395 3933 2590 3197 2912 3491 (-4.74) (10.35) (14.10) (40.83) (4.49) (25.27) 5 3191 3706 2424 3031 2731 3301 (-10.47) (3.99) (6.78) (33.54) (-2.02) (18.46)

Impact of Change in Climate and Water Resources on Wheat Production

Level of wheat production depends on the yield per hectare as well as the area under wheat cultivation. Any reduction in wheat yield or area would result in reduced production. The results of various simulation runs by DSSAT based

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CERES-wheat model with 3 irrigations at ambient (360 ppm) CO2 level suggest that wheat yield would decline with rise in temperature though the simultaneous rise in CO2 concentration might offset this decline to some extent. This reduction in the wheat yield at higher temperature would consequently be translated in to reduced production compared to baseline production. As the sustenance of baseline production level is indispensable, a rise in wheat area cultivated is inevitable in case of future climate change. The extent of additional area needed to sustain the baseline production level was estimated for semi arid, arid, and overall basis for varying temperature rise, CO2 concentration levels, and for 3 irrigations and 5 irrigations without change in total water applied as shown in Figure 3.

The results show that at 360 ppm CO2 concentration level and with 3 irrigations (225 mm of total water applied), 9-50 % increase in wheat area is necessary for sustaining the baseline production level in semi arid areas at a temperature rise of 1-5 0C (Figure 3a). Corresponding expected increases in wheat area for arid areas and overall basis are estimated as 11-45% and 10-48% shown in Figure 3(c) and 3(e), respectively. However, at 550 ppm CO2 concentration level, if same quantity of irrigation water is applied (225 mm) in 5 irrigations instead of 3, the change in area (Figure 3a) from the baseline area needed to sustain the production in semi arid areas will be -20 to +5% for a temperature rise of 1 to 5°C (Fig. 3a). The negative sign indicates that 20 percent less area is required for sustaining the current production level by applying 5 irrigations instead of 3 irrigations to wheat crop. In other words, cultivating the area producing baseline yield would result into surplus wheat grain production with 5 irrigations. The reduction in area could only be possible due to significantly higher yield obtained in case of applying 5 irrigations, one at each critical stage (Table 4). The corresponding estimates for arid areas and overall basis are -35 to -12% and -28 to -4% for 1-5 0C increase in temperature as shown in Figure 2(c) and 2(e). At increased level of CO2 concentration of 550 ppm, the estimated wheat area needed to sustain the baseline production for semi-arid areas, arid areas, and overall basis reduced significantly for 3 and 5 irrigations at 1-50C increase in temperature, as shown in Figure 2(b, d and f). This is because of double fertilization effect of high CO2 concentration which tends to lower the use of irrigation water and increases the wheat yield significantly

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a):Semi Arid Areas (CO2=360ppm )

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

(b): Sem i Arid Areas (CO2=550ppm )

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

(c): Arid Areas (CO2=360ppm)

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

(d): Arid Areas (CO2=550ppm )

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

(e): Overall (Arid and Sem i Arid Areas) (CO2=360ppm)

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

(f): Overall (Arid and Semi Arid Areas) (CO2=550ppm)

0

1

21°C

2°C

3°C4°C

5°C

3 Irrigations 5 Irrigations

Figure 3: Changes in wheat area under varying climate and water supply for sustaining Baseline wheat production. The black polygons with solid lines represent existing wheat area under baseline climatic conditions with three irrigations. The green polygons with long dotted lines represent required area under temperature changes with three irrigations; the red polygons inside solid line polygons represent required wheat area under temperature change and with five irrigations.

For sustaining the baseline wheat production, changes in the requisite wheat area to the tune of -17 to +19% are required on overall basis for temperature increases of 1-5 0C with 3 irrigations. Corresponding estimates for semi-arid and arid areas are -15 to 25% and -19 to 13%, respectively. With 5 irrigations, surplus wheat production could be achieved with the baseline wheat area.

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Rice In order to economize on water for growing of rice, which is a high water requiring crop (1200-1800 mm), the following studies were carried out:

8.2.1 Dry sowing vs transplanting Rice is a high delta crop hence sensitive to declining water availability. With increasing water scarcity, alternate methods of establishing rice that require less labor and water without sacrificing yield are needed. Soomro (2004) reported that research on water saving crop establishment technologies such as direct seeding, bed planting etc., revealed that significantly lesser amount of water was used in direct seeding compared to conventional method of random transplanting. The feasibility of dry seeding under semi arid conditions of Punjab province, Pakistan was assessed by comparing its yield performance with the yield of transplanted rice using the CERES-Rice model. The results (Table 6) showed that Direct Dry Seeding of rice offered a useful opportunity for improving water use efficiency (WUE).

Table 6. Water Use Efficiency for Transplanting and Direct seeding of Rice

Locations Water Use Efficiency for Transplanted rice (kg/m3) (17 irrigations)

Water Use Efficiency for Direct seeded rice (kg/m3) (13 irrigations)

Faisalabad 2.91 3.68 Sheikhupura 3.10 3.82

The WUE was increased from 2.91 to 3.68 kg/m3 by direct seeding in Faisalabad district and from 3.10 to 3.82 kg/m3 in Sheikhupura districts, by reducing the water inflow requirements during land preparation and transplanting, thus conserving about 25% of irrigation water. The pattern of paddy yields was however not consistent and clear (Table 7) . This offers an opportunity to reduce water supply to rice from 1300 mm (17 irrigations of 75 mm each) to 975 mm (13 irrigations of 75 mm each), thus saving 325 mm water by shifting from transplanting to direct seeding. A further reduction in water supply to 675 mm (9 irrigations of 75 mm each) by direct seeding could not prove to be a wise practice because a significant loss in yield (P<5%) occurred. Mann et al. (2004) reported that 25% of water could be saved through direct seeding of rice compared to conventional (puddled transplanting) method.

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Table 7. Yields of Transplanted and Direct-seeded Rice for different number of irrigations.

Faisalabad Sheikhupura No. of Irrigations a

Transplanting Direct Seeding Transplanting Direct Seeding

17 3787 3685 4036 3869

13 3210 3592 3495 3728

9 2765 2750 3049 2980

a The amount of water per irrigation was 75 mm. Early maturity of crop through direct seeding was also manifested by the model results (Table 8). The anthesis occurred two days earlier at Faisalabad and Sheikhupura whereas the maturity was seven days earlier due to direct seeding.

Table 8. Effect of Planting Methods on Growth Phases of Anthesis and Maturity

Days to Anthesis Days to Maturity No. of Irrigations Faisalabad Sheikhupura Faisalabad Sheikhupura 17(Transplanted Rice) 67 67 106 106

13(Direct Seeded Rice) 65 65 99 99

8.2.2 Optimization of transplanting date

Global warming is one of the most influencing factors impacting the world food production and most countries are trying to adapt to this change. Rice is the second staple crop of Pakistan; the paddy yield per unit area is highly dependent on the method of sowing and time of planting. The optimal planting dates for Basmati Super, an aromatic fine-grain cultivar, were determined for the semi-arid areas of Punjab, Pakistan, under temperature increases of 1 to 5°C. The results (Figure 4) showed that the optimal planting dates span between 20th June and 20th July under the ambient temperature and carbon dioxide levels. The simulated grain yields under above mentioned optimal growing season varied from 4.2 to 4.3t/ha.

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Optimization of planting date of rice underTemperature & CO2 change

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1 2 3 4 5 6

Temperature

Yield yield at 20th Jun yield at 5th Jul yield at 20th Jul yield at 5th Aug

Figure 4: Optimization of planting date of rice under temperature and CO2 change

The rice yield increased by 3 % under 20th July transplanting as compared to 5th July transplanting (Table 9). The corresponding growing season length, however will increase from 110 to 114 days which might disturb timely wheat sowing, hence 5th July transplanting is advised under prevalent climatic conditions. Further delay in transplanting beyond 20th July decreased rice yields by 1%. Late transplanting (20th July) can serve as an adaptation strategy to sustain baseline yield under temperature rise up to 2˚C at CO2 level of 550 ppm provided other management practices employed are kept the same (Table 9).

Table 9. Simulated grain yields under optimal growing season.

Yield (kg/ha) with transplanting dates Temperature(°C) above Baseline, at 550 ppm CO2 level 20-Jun 05-Jul 20-Jul 05-Aug Baseline 4614 4601 4730 4645 1 4411 4400 4521 4377 2 4088 4077 4176 3987 3 3715 3697 3747 3602 4 3327 3288 3324 3194 5 2947 2885 2854 2745

9. Other possible adaptation options The other possible adaptations options, besides those mentioned above, to counter the adverse impacts of global warming and related specifically to crops, soils, water,

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management practices, etc in the agriculture sector are listed below. Some of these options may be inter-related or overlapping with other areas.

Crop related:

• Development of heat tolerant crop varieties • Development of short duration varieties • Development of drought tolerant varieties • Shifting of crop boundaries to suitable habitats • Changes in cropping patterns –e.g. inclusion of legumes in all-cereal cropping

pattern, inclusion of deep-rooted crops in the cropping pattern • Effective weed control • Replacement of high water requiring crops with low water requiring crops • Changing of planting time to avoid heat stress or shortage of water (discusses

above) • Crop insurance

Soil related: • Soil mulching to suppress evaporation and to lower soil temperature • Crop residue incorporation into soil to increase organic matter content and to

conserve soil moisture • Minimum tillage practices – as a soil moisture conservation measure • Deep planting in rainfed areas during pre-rainy season – as a soil moisture

conservation measure • Improvement of soil drainage – to prevent soil degradation due to development of

maladies like water-logging and salinity, to prevent denitrification losses from applied nitrogenous fertilizers in the form of Nitrous oxide

Water use related:

• Increasing crop water use efficiency by adapting to high efficiency irrigation practices, such as Drip, Sprinkler and Pitcher irrigation; Sub-surface irrigation channels in hot areas like Karez in Balochistan

• Integrating irrigation with water-sensitive growth stages of crops • Managing available water quantities by spreading into greater number of

irrigations, withholding irrigation or applying lesser amounts of water at less-sensitive growth stages of the crop

• Planned use of groundwater for irrigation, to avoid soil degradation due to bad quality of groundwater, to avoid depletion of natural aquifer

Water resources related:

• Development of new water resources • Increasing storage capacity to store water from flash floods, e.g. hill torrents, from

water sheds and slopes • Tapping God-gifted fresh water, i.e. rainfall harvesting, rooftop harvesting • Lining of water channels to avoid seepage losses and development of water-

logging/salinity

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Farm Management related:

• Encouragement of crop culture with minimal tillage (reduced tillage) or without tillage (no-till)

• Reduction of reliance on agro-chemicals (pesticides, weedicides, commercial synthetic fertilizers, etc.)

• Composting of kitchen refuse, farmyard refuse and other organic materials into valuable organic fertilizer

• Storing and handling the farmyard manures in solid rather than liquid form – to suppress methane emissions, production of biogas

• Rice cultivation by practices that save water without sacrificing yield such as direct dry sowing, which will also suppress methane emissions

Policy Improvement Changes in policies and institutions may be needed to facilitate adaptation to climate change. These may include greater investments in participatory research, infrastructure, capacity building, risk management, improved product storage and markets. The cost of implementing these adaptations may be shared with other policy initiatives such as trade policy, investment in research and development. 10. Conclusions

The GCISC studies cited above, as well as many other studies reported in literature, point to the negative effects of increase in global temperature on crop productivity in Pakistan resulting in possible production shortfalls. In general, the increase in temperature would result in shrinkage of crop growth cycle of wheat and rice in their respective ecozones. The yield of wheat, except in the northern mountainous region, is also likely to decrease in the northern sub-mountainous, semi-arid plains and arid plains. The Basmati rice yield would also decrease in the semi-arid plains of central Punjab province. Because of the increased evapotranspiration at higher temperatures, the overall water demands of the agriculture crops will also increase significantly necessitating greater supply of irrigation water. The magnitude of increase in temperature causing these changes may vary from region to region. At the same time, the vulnerability of the agriculture crops to extreme climate events (floods, droughts, cyclones etc) will increase as the frequency and intensity of such events increases. All this calls for well planned systematic efforts to develop and make use of appropriate adaptation strategies to counter/mitigate the negative impact of climate change.

Some probing studies carried out at GCISC, using crop simulation model CERES, suggest that drop in crop yields of wheat and rice due to increase in temperature could be diminished to certain extent by altering the sowing dates in such a way that sowing is advanced to cooler part of the growing season in the hot areas. In order to avert the harmful effects of high temperature on wheat yield, the quantities of available irrigation water could be spread to five irrigations, synchronizing with the water-sensitive growth stages, instead of three keeping the total amount of water the same. Similarly, under

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water-sufficient conditions, the water productivity of wheat under the prevalent three irrigations (optimum) could be compared with four (super-optimum) or two (sub-optimum) irrigations keeping the amount of water per irrigation the same. Considerable amounts of water could be saved by changing the method of rice sowing from the conventional transplanting of seedling in the standing water to dry sowing like in wheat, provided the yield is not sacrificed. Another adaptation strategy which could allow time to the national planners and the farming community to adjust is the development of more accurate seasonal forecasts. Some of these options are currently being studies at GCISC.

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Fredrick, K. 1997. Climate change and water resources. In Resources for the Future’s (RFF) Climate Economics and Policy Program.

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Hunsigi, G. and K.P. Krishan 1998. Science of Field Crop Production. Oxford & IBH Publishing Co. Ltd., India

Hussain, S.S. 2003. Mountain ecosystems: Emerging challenges and opportunities for agriculture in Northern Pakistan. In Mufti, S.A., Hussain, S.S., Khan, M.A. (Eds.) Mountains of Pakistan: Protection, potential, and prospects. Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan, pp. 180-191. Hussain, S.S., Goheer, A.R., Sultana, H., Mudasser, M., Salik, K.M., and Ahmad, A. 2005. Sensitivity of Wheat Yield to Climate Change in Punjab, Pakistan, Using DSSAT based CERES-Wheat Simulation Model. Proceedings of APN-CAPaBLE National Workshop on “Global Change-Challenges, Impacts, Opportunities and Prospects”, Pakistan Academy of Sciences, Islamabad, April 28 – 29 April, 2005. IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group-I, Fourth Assessment Report. Iqbal, M.M., S.S.Hussain, M.A. Goheer, H. Sultana, K.M. Salik, M. Mudasser and A.M. Khan 2008a. Climate Change and Wheat Production in Pakistan: Calibration, Validation and Application of CERES-Wheat Model. Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad Iqbal, M.M., M.A. Goheer, S.A. Noor, K.M. Salik, H. Sultana and A.M. Khan 2008b. Climate Change and Rice Production in Pakistan: Calibration, Validation and Application

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of CERES-Rice Model in Pakistan. Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad Islam, S., N. Rehman, M.M. Sheikh and A.M. Khan 2007. Climate Change Scenarios for Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B scenarios using output of IPCC AR4 17 GCMs (Interim Report). Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad Kumar, K. and J. Parekh, 1998. Climate change impacts on Indian agriculture: the Ricardian approach in measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Eds. A. Dinar, R. Mendelsohn, R. Evenson, J. Parikh, A. Sanghi, K. Kumar, J. Mckinsey and S. Loneragan (World Bank Technical Paper No. 402), Washington, DC: World Bank Lal, M. 2005. Implications of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in South Asia, In ‘Key vulnerable regions and climate change’ – Identifying thresholds for impacts and adaptation in relation to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, European Climate Forum Long, S.P., E.A. Ainsworth, A. Rogers and D.R. Ort 2004. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: Plants face the future. Annual Review of Plant Biology 55, 591-628 Mann RA, W.A. Jehangir and I. Masih. 2004. Improving Crop and Water Productivity of Rice –Wheat System in Punjab, Pakistan. Proceedings of 4th International Crop science Congress.2004. Queensland, Australia. Mogensen, V.O., H.E. Jensen and M. Abdur Rab. 1985. Grain yield, yield components, drought sensitivity and water use efficiency of spring wheat subjected to water stress at various growth stages. Irrigation Science. 6,131 – 140. Olesen J.E. and M. Bindi 2002. Consequences of Climate Change for European Agricultural Productivity, land use and Policy. European Journal of Agronomy, 16: 239-262. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council. Pakistan Aridity Classes (Map). http://www.parc.gov.pk/gismap-3.html Parry, M., C. Rozenweig, A. Iglesas, G. Fischer and M. Lvermore 1999. Climate change and world food security: An assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9, 51-67. Porter, J.R. and M..A. Semenov 2005. Crop responses to climatic variability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. B, 360, 2021-2035 Rozenweig, C., A. Iglesias, X.B. Yang, P.R. Epstein and E. Chivian 2001. Climate change and extreme weather events: Implications for food productions, plant diseases and pests. In Global Change and Human Health, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 90-104

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Soomro, B. 2004. Paddy and water environment related issues, problems and prospects in Pakistan. Paddy Water Environ. 2,41–44. Thomas, J.M.G., K.L. Boote, L.H. Allen Jr., M. Gallo-Meagher and J.M. Davis 2003. Elevated temperature and carbon dioxide effects on soybean seed composition and transcript abundance. Crop Science, 43, 1548-1557 Tubiello, F.N. and G. Fischer. 2006. Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: global Soc. Change., doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.027. Xiao, G., W. Liu, Q. Xu, Z. Sun and J. Wang 2005. Effects of temperature increases and elevated CO2 concentrations with supplemental irrigation on the yield of rainfed spring wheat in a semi-arid region of China. Agricultural Water Management 74, 243-255 Zhang, H., X. Wang., M. You., C Liu. 1999. Water-yield relations and water-use efficiency of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Irrigation Science. 19(1), 37 – 45.

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Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

Global change science is being aggressively pursued around the world. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre was created in May 2002 to initiate this multidisciplinary effort in Pakistan. The main objective of the Centre is to comprehend the phenomenon of global change, scientifically determine its likely impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Pakistan and develop strategies to counter the adverse effects, if any. Another function of the Centre is to establish itself as a national focal point for providing cohesion to global change related activities at the national level and for linking it with international global research. An important function of the Centre is to help develop manpower that is capable of studying and participating in the international effort to study the global change phenomenon. The Centre also works to increase the awareness of the public, the scientific community and the policy planners in the country to global change.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex

Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad

Pakistan

Telephone: (+92-51)-9230226-8, 2077386 Fax: (+92-51)-2077385

e-mail: gcisc@comsats.net.pkweb: www.gcisc.org.pk

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