CO2 IncreaseCO2 has increased from 0.030% to 0.038% of the atmosphere – an increase of 0.008%

290300310320330340350360370380390

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

CO 2

(ppm

)

Carbon Carbon dioxide is dioxide is not the not the

only only ““problemproblem””

The The greenhouse greenhouse

effect is effect is real!real!

Greenhouse Diagram

Warming in Warming in high high

latitudes, latitudes, land areas, land areas, Northern Northern

Hemisphere, Hemisphere, in winter, in winter,

and at nightand at night

Very Very tough to tough to model?model?

Jones Plot

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

ies

Solar “Constant”

1365.0

1365.5

1366.0

1366.5

1367.0

1367.5

1368.0

1368.5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Irrad

ianc

e

Jones Plot

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

ies

Microwave Microwave Sounding Sounding

UnitUnit

MSU Plot

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

ies

(°C

)

Hockey Stick

Hockey Stick

More More Hurricanes?Hurricanes?

““... climate models give ... climate models give nonoconsistent indication whether consistent indication whether

tropical storms will increase or tropical storms will increase or decrease in frequency or intensity decrease in frequency or intensity

as climate changes; neither is as climate changes; neither is there any evidence that this has there any evidence that this has

occurred over the past few occurred over the past few decades.decades.””

IPCC, IPCC, 1990 (p. xxv)1990 (p. xxv)

““In conclusion, it is not possible In conclusion, it is not possible to say whether the frequency, area to say whether the frequency, area of occurrence, time of occurrence, of occurrence, time of occurrence,

mean intensity or maximum mean intensity or maximum intensity of tropical cyclones will intensity of tropical cyclones will

change.change.””

IPCC, IPCC, 1996, p. 3341996, p. 334

““Changes globally in tropical and Changes globally in tropical and extraextra--tropical storm intensity and tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by interfrequency are dominated by inter--

decadal and multidecadal and multi--decadal decadal variations, with variations, with nono significant significant trends evident over the 20trends evident over the 20thth

century.century.””

IPCC,IPCC, 2001, p. 52001, p. 5

““NoNo systematic changes in the systematic changes in the frequency of tornadoes, thunder frequency of tornadoes, thunder

days, or hail events are evident in days, or hail events are evident in the limited areas the limited areas analysedanalysed..””

IPCC,IPCC, 2001, p. 52001, p. 5

Sea Level 1.8 mm / year

““decadal variability in sea level is observed, but to date there decadal variability in sea level is observed, but to date there is is no detectable secular increase in the rate of sea level rise oveno detectable secular increase in the rate of sea level rise over r the period 1950the period 1950--20002000”” Church et al., Church et al., J. ClimateJ. Climate, 2004, p. 2624., 2004, p. 2624.

IPCC - Kyoto Plot

19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 205020500.00.0

0.10.1

0.20.2

0.30.3

0.40.4

0.50.5

0.60.6

0.70.7

0.80.8

0.90.9

1.01.0T

empe

ratu

re C

hang

e (°

C)

T

empe

ratu

re C

hang

e (°

C)

YearYear

"The influence of the Protocol"The influence of the Protocolwould, therefore, be undetectablewould, therefore, be undetectablefor many decades".for many decades".

Wigley, 1998,Wigley, 1998, Geophys. Res. Letters,Geophys. Res. Letters, p. 2288.p. 2288.