gbernanke assured the markets about the continuation … · dheeraj sagar, 1st floor, opp. goregaon...
TRANSCRIPT
(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
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lobal stock markets gained after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben S.
Bernanke assured the markets about the continuation of accommodative Gstance and said that it is too early to preempt the start of tapering of bond
purchase in September. The pace of the economic recovery would be guiding factor
for the Central Bank to reduce the bond purchases said Ben S. Bernanke. He is trying to
maintain a delicate balance by his statements keeping in mind the market's volatility
and the economic recovery and at the same time preparing markets when that will
happen. And markets would be getting supports either by good recovery or
continuation of stimulus in case economic data suggests bleak growth.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going in for the upper house elections on 21st
July and his win would bolster the expectations of more policy actions to spur growth
in the economy that includes structural reforms, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.
European Central Bank (ECB) to boost lending and diversify resources relaxed the risk
premium and threshold rating required for asset backed securities (ABS) to secure
loans against it. The G-20 countries are expected to discuss more measures to spur
growth in Europe in a two day meeting starting 19th July 2013.
Back at home, Rupee that showed some appreciation after RBI action of hiking
Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and Bank Rate to 10.25% and capping Liquidity
Adjustment Facility (LAF) window for banks borrowing at `75,000 crore, once again
started falling because of stronger dollar and FII pullout from the Indian markets. The
auction that was targeted to mop up `12,000 crore from the banking system by the
RBI, failed as banks demanded higher yields on the bonds. Results season has just
started with Infosys delivering better than consensus estimates. TCS numbers were
even better and the management was sounded more confident about future growth
and margins. Among the private sector banks, both HDFC bank and Axis bank delivered
good sets of numbers. Though broader markets are trading in a range of around 2% but
huge disparity is seen in the performance of the sectors in terms of wide gains and losses.
On the commodity front, physical demand for bullions coupled with the lower level
buying in the bullion counters may continue to provide support to the prices.
Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee need to be closely watched which may
move in range of 59-61. Dollar index may continue to extend decline and will lend
support to the metals and energy. This week key data releases such as US home sales
and durable goods orders data along with Euro zone PMI will give further direction to
the prices. Recently, Bernanke indicated that the central bank could raise asset
purchases if required to meet the inflation and employment mandates. Fed's
Chairman Ben Bernanke stressed that the paring would be dependent on economic
data and do not have a pre-set schedule. In the agro pack, edible oils market
witnessed a mixed trend tracking excellent progress in sowing of Kharif crops and
expectation of pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures as peak production season is fast
approaching.
From The Desk Of Editor
4
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
SENSEX 20128 UP 18.07.13 2012819500 19300 19150
S&P NIFTY 6038 UP 18.07.13 6038 5880 5800 5750
CNX IT 7306 UP 18.07.13 7306 6900 6800 6700
CNX BANK 11188 DOWN 13.06.13 11687 11800 12000 12200
ACC 1275 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300
BHARTIAIRTEL 324 UP 18.07.13 324 305 300 295
BHEL 190 DOWN 01.11.12 227 180 190 195
CIPLA 413 UP 18.07.13 413 395 385 380
DLF 171 DOWN 21.03.13 239 195 205 210
HINDALCO 104 DOWN 13.06.13 97 103 105 108
ICICI BANK 984 DOWN 13.06.13 1069 1050 1080 1100
INFOSYS 2800 UP 18.07.13 2800 2650 2600 2570
ITC 369 UP 04.03.11 172 350 340 330
L&T* 985 DOWN 23.05.13 945 973 987 1000
MARUTI 1456 DOWN 13.06.13 1457 1530 1560 1600
NTPC 147 DOWN 20.06.13 140 149 154 158
ONGC 315 DOWN 13.06.13 309 320 325 330
RELIANCE 917 UP 04.07.13 862 860 840 830
TATASTEEL 245 DOWN 07.02.13 390 270 280 290
NEWS
EX DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE25-JUL-13 DIVISLAB DIVIDEND RS 15/- PER SHARE25-JUL-13 CUMMINSIND FINAL DIVIDEND RS.8/- PER EQUITY SHARE26-JUL-13 TATAPOWER DIVIDEND - RS.1.15/- PER EQUITY SHARE30-JUL-13 TATAMOTORS DIVIDEND RS.2/- PER SHARE30-JUL-13 ASIANPAINT FACE VALUE SPLIT RS 10 TO RE 130-JUL-13 DLF DIVIDEND RS 2/- PER SHARE
MEETING DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE
22-JUL-13 LT RESULTS22-JUL-13 ASIANPAINT RESULTS23-JUL-13 KPIT RESULTS23-JUL-13 CENTURYTEX RESULTS24-JUL-13 YESBANK RESULTS24-JUL-13 DABUR RESULTS24-JUL-13 CAIRN RESULTS24-JUL-13 AMBUJACEM RESULTS/DIVIDEND25-JUL-13 ZEEL RESULTS25-JUL-13 MARUTI RESULTS25-JUL-13 ITC RESULTS25-JUL-13 ACC RESULTS/DIVIDEND26-JUL-13 BANKINDIA RESULTS26-JUL-13 WIPRO RESULTS26-JUL-13 PNB RESULTS26-JUL-13 HINDUNILVR RESULTS29-JUL-13 COLPAL RESULTS29-JUL-13 IDFC RESULTS30-JUL-13 SYNDIBANK RESULTS30-JUL-13 NTPC RESULTS30-JUL-13 DRREDDY RESULTS
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
DOMESTIC NEWS
Engineering
• L&T has bagged an order worth 2,085-crore from the Ministry of Transport And Communication, Sultanate of Oman for the construction of the Al-Batinah Expressway Package 4.
Automobile
• Ashok Leyland would invest around `400 crore in 2013-14 as compared to `1,500 crore, a year ago. The company has cut salaries by 5% and has reduced casual labour in view of poor demand.
Telecom
• Reliance Communications went a step ahead, reducing its 3G data prices to a tad lower than their 2G prices. While 1GB of data download via 3G will cost ̀ 123, the same data download through 2G will cost ̀ 125.
Pharmaceuticals
• Lupin has inked an in-licensing agreement with pharma company MSD (known as Merck & Co in the US and Canada), under which the company will market MSD's pneumonia prevention vaccine under a different brand name in India.
Mining
• Coal India Ltd (CIL) is evaluating buying stakes in three coal assets in mineral-rich Australia to bridge the shortfall in its domestic production. The company is planning to invest `6,000 crore in foreign acquisitions this financial year.
Cement
• Heidelberg Cement India aims to more than double its manufacturing capacity by 2017. Majority of these expansions is likely to come via mergers and acquisitions route.
Realty & Construction
• IL&FS Engineering has received ̀ 284 crore contract for rural electrification (RE) works at Amedkarnagar district in Uttar Pradesh under Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY).
• Punj Lloyd is planning to refinance up to `1,400 crore of debt into dollar loans over the next six months to cut costs and soften the impact of a falling rupee.
Capital Goods
• Suzlon Energy's arm REpower Systems SEhas installed turbines with a capacity of 325 MW at a wind farm in Belgium.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
• US housing starts tumbled 9.9 percent to an annual rate of 836,000 in June from the revised May estimate of 928,000. The steep drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000 from the 914,000 originally reported for the previous month.
• US consumer price index rose by 0.5 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. Economists had been expecting prices to increase by 0.4 percent.
• US industrial production rose by 0.3 percent in June after coming in unchanged in May. Economists had been expecting production to edge up by 0.2 percent.
• US industrial production rose by 0.3 percent in June after coming in unchanged in May. Economists had been expecting production to edge up by 0.2 percent.
• U.K. retail sales volume, both excluding and including auto fuel, grew 0.2 percent each month-on-month in June. Economists had forecast sales including auto fuel to grow 0.3 percent following a 2.1 percent rise in May. Sales, excluding auto fuel grew in line with economists' expectations, after expanding 2.1 percent a month ago.
• Eurozone's current account surplus decreased in May from the previous month, due mainly to higher deficit in current transfers and a decline in revenues. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus dropped to EUR19.6 billion in May from an upwardly revisedEUR23.8 billion in April. In March, the balance was a surplus of EUR23.1 billion.
• Hong Kong's unemployment rate decreased unexpectedly in June from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 3.3 percent at the end of the three months ended June from 3.4 percent in the preceding period. Economists had forecast the jobless rate to stay unchanged.
`
®
*Stock price has been adjusted according to the Bonus ratio 1:2
5
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
-5110.40
-177.00-309.70
-4.10-70.10
100.8026.70
-6000.00
-5000.00
-4000.00
-3000.00
-2000.00
-1000.00
0.00
1000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII Activity MF Activity
-0.33
0.48
0.85
0.03
0.420.36
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
-0.56
-4.46
-0.20
-2.71
2.08
7.31
0.59
1.14
3.42
0.61
-2.28
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
-0.55
-0.79
0.31
0.54 0.55
2.08
0.32
1.37
1.89
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
14.48
5.99 5.77 5.353.97
-7.24 -6.91
-3.64 -3.34 -3.29
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Hind. Unilever
O N G C Bharti Airtel ITC Tata Power Co.
ICICI Bank Tata Steel St Bk of India Sterlite Inds. M & M
14.37
8.017.20
6.10 5.94
-7.53 -7.16 -6.83-6.12
-5.15
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Hind. Unilever
Asian Paints Ambuja Cem. O N G C Bharti Airtel IndusInd Bank
ICICI Bank Tata Steel Kotak Mah. Bank
I D F C
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
6
® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 589.50/363.60
M.Cap (` Cr.) 2115.80
EPS (`) 45.14
P/E Ratio (times) 11.72
P/B Ratio (times) 2.08
Dividend Yield (%) 1.70
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
PERSISTENT SYSTEMS LIMITED CMP: 528.95 Upside: 19%Target Price: 628
Investment Rationale for the company.
•Net profit of the company rose 25.9% to `51.89 •The company has expanded its presence in Goa by acquiring a new building and in Bangalore by crore in the quarter ended March 2013 as against opening a Development Centre. Further, it also `41.22 crore during the previous quarter ended plans near-shore delivery centre in the US. The March 2012. Sales rose 23.4% to `333.96 crore in Capex is expected to be ̀ 125 crore for the FY'14. the quarter ended March 2013 as against Rs
270.62 crore during the previous quarter ended •The attrition was lower at 14.4% in Q4'FY'13 from March 2012.18.3 in Q4'FY'12. Also, it gave offers to 500
freshers, which are expected to join in the Q3. ValuationFurther, the wage hikes are expected to be Persistent Systems is one such player, which operates between 7-10% going forward. in the outsourced software product development
•During the quarter March 2013, the company has space. It has been growing at a pace much faster than announced licensing agreement with Hewlett the industry over the past two-three years. Growth Packard for HP Client Automation (HPCA) across key segments such as telecom and software. This technology acquisition underscores infrastructure and systems, increase in revenues Persistent Systems' commitment to expand its IP from the US and large-client additions are positives portfolio and further strengthen its expertise in PC for the company. We, thus, expect the stock to see a Lifecycle Management (PCLCM), Virtual Desktop price target of ̀ 628 in one year time frame, based on Infrastructure (VDI) and Mobile Device estimated FY14E EPS of 55.15 on a one year average Management (MDM).
P/Ex of 11.39.•Recently, the company has entered into a strategic
partnership with Syscare Techology, a Moroccon IT company. Persistent has expanded its activities in Moroccon, providing software development and technology services and support to its clients in Africa and the Mediterranean region.
•The Intellectual Property (IP) - led Revenue doubles (contribution was 17.2% in FY'13 as against 8.8% in FY'12) during the year ended March 2013. Furthear, the IP revenues are expected to do much better way going forward.
•Growth across key segments such as telecom and infrastructure and systems, increase in revenues from the US and large-client additions are positives
` in cr
Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015
Revenue 1,294.51 1,501.24 1,695.97
EBITDA 303.73 375.89 417.74
EBIT 225.44 292.08 320.56
Pre-Tax Profit 262.99 315.55 353.37
Net Profit 187.62 219.93 247.38
EPS 46.90 55.15 62.64
BVPS 254.56 300.84 352.04
ROE 20.19 19.88 19.14
P/BV Chart
Face Value ( ) 5.00
52 Week High/Low 964.00 / 714.20
M.Cap (` Cr.) 15948.22
EPS (`) 32.01
P/E Ratio (times) 24.34
P/B Ratio (times) 5.25
Stock Exchange BSE
`
` in cr
Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015
Revenue 6,155.38 7,295.85 8,464.63
EBITDA 1,125.68 1,349.56 1,619.05
EBIT 942.85 1,155.33 1,398.33
Pre-Tax Profit (GAAP) 811.22 1,046.74 1,309.98
Net Profit (GAAP) 655.30 807.14 1,011.45
EPS(GAAP) 32.01 39.11 49.08
BVPS 148.49 177.39 216.22
ROE 23.29 23.98 24.84
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale MNCs for marketing its new drug, Lipaglyn, in
developed markets such as the US, Europe and •The company has filed 33 Abbreviated New Drug Japan.Applications (ANDA) in FY 2013, taking the
•The company's net sales grew by 16% YoY in cumulative filings to 173. It received 15 ANDA Q4'FY13 to `1565.76 crore on the back of strong approvals in FY 2013 taking the total to 76 product
approvals. It expects 22 ANDA's approval for US growth from the Exports (20%) and Wellness
market in FY'14. The company expects the US business (26%) coupled with the good growth from
business to grow by 20% in the FY'14. Domestic Formulations (14%). The net profit grew
by 54% YoY to ̀ 262.46 crore.•It has filed 25 additional dossiers for new products
in the European markets, taking the cumulative Valuationnumber of new product dossier filings to 161. It Over the past few years, the company has reported filed 18 dossiers in Brazil taking the cumulative steady performance and is likely to continue the filings to 100. In Mexico, It has filed 6 new product momentum going forward on the back of new product dossiers, taking the cumulative filings to 20. launches, recovery in US market and steady
•The company has lined up capex of ̀ 600 crore for performance in the domestic formulation business.
FY'14 mainly to expand the formulation capacities. We expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 971 in one
year time frame on a three year average P/E of 24.84x •The Zydus wellness, a subsidiary company of and FY14 (E) EPS of ̀ 39.11.Cadila Healthcare, targets to achieve revenues of
Rs 500 crore by the FY'14 with the relaunching of
the products and new introductions. It expects the
India business of the company to outperform the
market growth going forward.
•The Drug Controller General of India (DCGI)
approved Cadila Healthcare to launch Lipaglyn
(Saroglitazar), a novel drug targeted at bridging an
unmet healthcare need for treating Diabetic
Dyslipidemia or Hypertriglyceridemia in Type II
diabetes, not controlled by statins alone. The
company expects that this drug will be a $1billion
blockbuster. The company now plans to partner
P/E Chart
CADILA HEALTHCARE LIMITED CMP: 778.95 Upside: 25%Target Price: 971
20.57
14.45
1.03
38.96
24.99
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
5.68
9.92 4
74.79
5.61 Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at 323.65 on 18th July 2013. It made a 52-week low at 215.80
on 05th October 2012 and a 52-week high at ̀ 370.60 on 25th January 2013. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at ̀ 322.58.
It has formed double bottom on the charts and has risen with volumes in last few
trading sessions, which is a positive sign. One can Buy in the range of 324-328
levels with closing below stop loss of 305 levels for the target of 340-350 levels.
` `
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 303.65 on 18th July 2013. It made a 52-week low at 267.70
on 28th March 2013 and a 52-week high of ̀ 367 on 17th September 2012. The 200
days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at ̀ 298.58.
After trading at lower levels, volumes has began to increase with the rise in
price which shows that lower level buying is going on. So, these prices could be
considered as buying opportunity for the short term targets. One can Buy in the
range of 304-307 levels with closing below stop loss of 289 levels for the target of
325-330 levels.
` `
The stock closed at 1731.75 on 18th July 2013. It made a 52-week low at 1435
on 15th April 2013 and a 52-week high at `2135.70 on 19th July 2012. The 200
days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at ̀ 1695.81.
It has formed Inverted head and shoulder, which is a positive formation. One can
Buy in the range of 1760-1765 levels with closing below stop loss of 1735 levels
for the target of 1820-1830 levels.
` `
Bharti Airtel Limited
Hero MotoCorp Limited
Cairn India Limited
®
DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
The Index witnessed sideways move throughout the week. Overall market cost-of-carry increased on the back of addition in open interest suggesting addition of long positions. Nifty closed above 6000 levels, whereas on the upside, it found resistance at 6080 levels. The scenario in the market currently remains bearish and range bound for short-term traders. Nifty July futures closed with 14 points premium. Hereafter, the range of 5900-6100 will remain crucial in the near term. Breach below the 5970 mark could see the Index declining sharply to 5800 levels. Put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.71 indicating put writing. The options open interest concentration shifted to the 5900 strike put option with open interest of above 1 crore shares. On the call side, both 6000 and 6100 strikes have IO of more than 55 lakh shares. The implied volatility (IV) of call options closed at 16.67%. While the average IV of put options was 16.36%. The Bank Nifty ended on a negative note last week. On the F&O front, the Index added in open interest on the back of decrease in cost-of-carry indicating short buildup. The index has underperformed the Nifty by a huge margin in the last week. The Nifty is struggling to cross 6100 mark; hence level of 5970 should be closely watched. If broken on closing basis than Nifty can slide to 5800 levels. Otherwise it is likely to hover in the range of 6000-6100 levels for the week.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
®
FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
NMDC (JUL FUTUR)
Buy: Above `108.5
Target: `111.5
Stop loss: `107
IFCIBuy JUL 25 CALL 0.40Buy JUL 22.5 PUT 0.15
Lot size: 8000Upside BEP: 25.55Downside BEP: 21.95Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 4400.00 (0.55*8000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
BHARTIATRL
Buy JUL. 330. CALL 5.35
Sell JUL. 340. CALL 2.35
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 333.00
Max. Profit: 7000.00 (7.00*1000)
Max. Loss: 3000.00 ( 3.00*1000)
CESC (JUL FUTURE)
Sell: `334
Target: `326
Stop loss: `338
Below
TATAMOTORSBuy JUL 300 CALL 3.00Buy JUL 290 PUT 3.90
Lot size: 1000Upside BEP: 306.90Downside BEP: 283.10Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 6900.00 (6.90*1000)
VOLATILITY STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
BULLISH STRATEGY
ZEEL (JUL FUTURE)
Sell: Below `238
Target: `232
Stop loss: `241
-1134.68
-716.91
-254.03
496.03 564.46
2728.73
915.32 810.46615.87 728.30
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
05-Jul 08-Jul 09-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul
-5
0
5
10
15
20
04-Jul 05-Jul 08-Jul 09-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul
175850 231200 380100875550
1368250
2523200
3559850
61185505754700
4496050
171405016840502074150
4190850
6337600 6162700
90765008612400
6239900
3001050
391950 209650
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300
Call Put
BUY40.1%
SELL59.9%
8
9
BHARTIARTL 7392000 6956000 -5.90 0.82 1.33 0.51 35.51 39.76 4.25
DLF 17541000 20306000 15.76 0.67 0.49 -0.18 49.54 49.96 0.42
HINDALCO 22044000 20968000 -4.88 0.64 0.81 0.17 44.77 40.93 -3.84
HINDUNILVR 9611000 9197500 -4.30 1.34 1.78 0.44 22.07 40.80 18.73
ICICIBANK 6834250 8117000 18.77 0.49 0.28 -0.21 32.69 34.78 2.09
IDEA 6848000 8526000 24.50 0.34 0.59 0.25 44.86 49.44 4.58
INFY 3951625 2952125 -25.29 0.97 1.33 0.36 26.66 21.58 -5.08
ITC 14480000 14271000 -1.44 1.19 1.50 0.31 25.80 26.98 1.18
JPASSOCIAT 56808000 61352000 8.00 0.59 0.42 -0.17 65.58 63.42 -2.16
NTPC 11418000 11264000 -1.35 0.28 0.35 0.07 28.82 32.00 3.18
ONGC 8886000 7009000 -21.12 0.26 0.43 0.17 38.47 30.97 -7.50
RANBAXY 3884500 3872500 -0.31 0.90 0.88 -0.02 46.35 38.70 -7.65
RCOM 38208000 39304000 2.87 0.96 1.08 0.12 66.02 60.85 -5.17
RELIANCE 7642750 7198750 -5.81 0.84 0.93 0.09 31.34 30.44 -0.90
NIFTY 17662050 16190850 -8.33 1.50 1.71 0.21 16.46 16.67 0.21
SAIL 17868000 18264000 2.22 0.37 0.33 -0.04 43.70 41.89 -1.81
SBIN 6027250 6829625 13.31 0.49 0.37 -0.12 33.50 34.49 0.99
TATASTEEL 23117000 22912000 -0.89 0.41 0.34 -0.07 39.10 39.57 0.47
UNITECH 72552000 71696000 -1.18 0.40 0.41 0.01 69.66 69.06 -0.60
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to
1.71 from 1.50. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has increased to 16.67% from 16.46%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this
week ranging from -7.65% to 18.73%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has decreased by 8.33% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -25.29% to 24.50%. IDEA has the
maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 6004.90 High 6066.20
Low 5844.40 Close 6050.40
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
®
15
16
17
18
19
20
5800
5900
6000
6100
12-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul
Nifty Close IV
10
®
Bullion counter may extend its short covering amid steady physical demand
in US and China along with softening greenback. On the domestic bourses,
weak local currency rupee is giving cushion to the gold prices. Gold may
trade in the range of $1260-1370 in COMEX and 26200-27600 in MCX. White
metal silver can also trade in wide range of 39500-42500 in near term.
According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke the reason gold
prices are lower as people are less concerned about extreme outcomes,
particularly negative outcomes. Bernanke told a House committee that
there was no preset course for the central bank's asset purchases, tempering
speculation that it would begin to taper stimulus as early as September. In
his second day of congressional testimony, the Federal Reserve Chairman,
Ben Bernanke affirmed that the central bank would likely reduce its
program of buying $85 billion of bonds a month later in 2013 and halt it
altogether by mid 2014. He also left open the option of changing stimulus
exit plans if the economic outlook grew worse. Gold imports by India, the
world's biggest consumer last year, may tumble in the second half as the
government curbs shipments to contain a record current account deficit and
stem a slide in the currency. India doubled a tax on gold imports to 8 percent
this year and tightened financing to cut purchases and contain the deficit.
BULLIONS
Upside momentum may persist in crude oil but profit booking at higher
levels cannot be denied. Rising Middle East tensions along with recovery in
US economy is supporting the prices. Overall it can trade in the range of
6300-6600 in MCX and $104-110 in NYMEX. The spread between WTI and
Brent crude oil narrowed sharply lower to nearly $1 for the first time since
2010. WTI is driven by refining demand for crude oil and the exceptionally
strong draws at Cushing. The convergence between Brent, a gauge for more
than half the world's oil, and WTI shows how improved pipeline networks
and the use of rail links have helped to unlock a glut at America's oil storage
hub at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures. American Petroleum
Institute, in its monthly report showed that total petroleum deliveries
dropped 1.0% from a year earlier to 18.7 million barrels a day in June, the
least for the month since 1997. Meanwhile, production jumped 15.0% to
7.22 million barrels a day in June, the highest June output since 1991.
Natural gas may extend last week gains and can test 240 in MCX. Energy
Information Administration stated that gas storage rose by 58 billion cubic
feet in the week ended July 12 against the expected the report to show a
rise of 64 bcf. The build topped the increase of 29 bcf in the same week of
2012, but was the less than the five-year average rise of 70 bcf.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Base metals complex may trade on volatile path on mixed fundamentals. Moody's raised the outlook of US' triple A credit rating to stable from negative, citing the country's recovery is "progressing at a faster rate compared with several Aaa peers and has demonstrated a degree of resilience to major reductions in the growth of government spending. China's GDP growth slowed in the second quarter to 7.5 percent year on year as weak overseas demand weighed on output and investment, lining up a test of Beijing's resolve to revamp the world's second-biggest economy in the face of deteriorating data. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 403-425. World No. 1 copper producer Codelco intends to spend about $27 billion to boost annual output from roughly 1.7 million tonnes to more than 2 million tonnes in coming years. Orders to remove copper from LME warehouses rose 1,325 tons to 336,600 tons, compared with total stockpiles of 640,600 tons. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 810-850 in MCX. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 104-108 levels while Zinc prices can hover in the range of 108-112 in MCX. While battery metal, lead can move in the range of 118-125. Press Metal Bhd's aluminum smelting plant in Malaysian Borneo could stay shut for three to six months. European premiums for physical zinc have reached their highest levels this month in a year because availability is constrained by a lack of material coming into the region, and large amounts of metal remain locked up in financing deals.
BASE METALS
Turmeric futures (Aug) may trade in the range of 5700-6000 levels, with upside being capped. The arrivals may improve, as many farmers require money for their agricultural operations. Further on the supply side, the sowing in Andhra Pradesh total area has covered 29525 hectares during the current year till date as compared to the same period last year 24947 hectares. On the demand front, the stockists are getting lukewarm upcountry export demand. Chilli futures (Aug) is expected to find support above 5400 levels, backed by steady demand at the spot markets. However, the gains may remain capped near 5700 levels owing to higher stocks at cold storage & on reports of elevated area under cultivation. The sowing in Andhra Pradesh total area covered 4996 hectares during the current year till date as compared to the same period last year 4706 hectares. Cardamom futures (Aug) is likely to fall below 740 levels. In the days to come, the harvesting will be in full swing & the crop is expected to be better than that of the current season. The first round of picking is underway may last till the month-end while the second round of picking will commence from mid-August. Jeera futures (Aug) will probably continue to hold above 13400 levels. There are hopes that the international demand may shift to India in coming days. For Singapore, one percent Indian cumin seed offered at $2,350/tonne FOB Mumbai. Cumin seed one percent for Europe is offered at $2,750-2,850/ton CNF.
SPICES
OTHER COMMODITIES
Chana futures (Aug) is seen extending its decline, heading towards 2915-
2900 levels. There are reports of large availability of 75,000-80,000 tonnes
of imported chana in Mumbai port alongwith a ample stocks in the domestic
market. In news update, the Government has no immediate plans to impose
any import duty on pulses. Sugar futures (Aug) is likely to fall further
breaching 3000 levels. The sweetener is reeling under ample supply
pressure on the domestic markets, and on the contrary, it is lacking any
major demand trigger. The latest figures show that the Vashi market carries
120-125 truckloads of inventory. In the latest reports, ISMA has estimated
that the opening balance as on 1st Oct, 2013 i.e. for the new season 2013-
14, will be around 80 lakh tonnes, which is about 20 lakh tonnes more than
the normative opening balance that the Government would like to have.
Wheat futures (Aug) is expected to witness another round of consolidation
in the range of 1570-1600 levels. The fundamentals suggest that exporters
are not active as outlook for global wheat market remains bearish. With
declining prices in Black Sea region and US, parity for Indian private
exporters turned negative. Wheat harvesting has picked up in the Black Sea
countries such as Ukraine and Russia and prices for the grain range $240-
250 a tonne f.o.b, whereas the Indian produce is still priced at $300.
The short covering in CPO futures (Aug) might remain restricted near 505 levels, as the bargain hunting may get offset by worries over bearish fundamentals of Malaysian market on the start of a seasonally higher production cycle in the second half of the year. Investors are awaiting for the July 1-20 exports data, which is likely to determine market direction next week. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services will issue the exports data on Saturday, while Societe Generale de Surveillance, will release it on Monday. Refined soy oil futures (Aug) is likely to remain range bound within 660-675 levels. Prospects of higher supplies and comfortable edible oil stock are likely to weigh on the market sentiments in the near term. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, the total stock, both at ports and pipelines is 2,060,000 tonnes as compared to 1,975,000 tonnes in the previous month. Soybean futures (Oct) is likely to remain below 3200 levels. The strong pace of soybean planting in the key producing regions has led to expectations of a higher soybean crop output in the current season. It is being reported that there are sufficient soybean stocks in the mandis of Madhya Pradesh and higher soybean sowing estimates are adding to the pressure. On the international market, U.S soybean futures (Nov) will possibly continue to face resistance near 1300 levels. Investors would be eying the data from the crop progress report & weekly weather and crop bulletin to be released by U.S Dept. of Agriculture on July 22nd & 23rd, 2013.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Closing as on 18.07.2013
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN (OCT) 3151.50 04.07.13 SIDEWAYS
NCDEX JEERA (AUGUST) 13562.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12400.00 - 12000.00 - 11500.00
NCDEX RED CHILLI (AUGUST) 5590.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 6000.00 6200.00 6300.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (AUGUST) 3388.00 11.04.13 UP 3586.00 3280.00 - 3200.00 - 3100.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (AUGUST) 917.10 13.06.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (AUGUST) 755.00 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 820.00 850.00 900.00
MCX SILVER (SEP) 40473.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 43000.00 44000.00 45000.00
MCX GOLD (AUGUST ) 26658.00 27.06.13 DOWN 25375.00 - 27000.00 28000.00 28500.00
MCX COPPER (AUGUST) 415.55 30.05.13 UP 414.55 400.00 - 390.00 - 380.00
MCX LEAD (JULY) 121.50 30.05.13 UP 122.90 117.00 - 113.00 - 110.00
MCX ZINC (JULY) 109.60 30.05.13 UP 107.55 106.00 - 104.00 - 102.00
MCX NICKEL (JULY) 834.70 21.02.13 DOWN 920.30 - 870.00 900.00 920.00
MCX ALUMINUM (JULY) 105.90 27.06.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CRUDE OIL (AUGUST) 6471.00 06.06.13 UP 5404.00 6100.00 - 6000.00 - 5900.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (AUGUST) 229.90 06.06.13 DOWN 218.60 - 230.00 235.00 240.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
NATURAL GAS MCX (JULY) contract closed at 216.30 on 18th July '13. The contract made its high of
`239.40 on 20th June '13 and a low of ̀ 211.20 on 1st July '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at ̀ 219.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57. One can sell 230-
232 the range with the stop loss of ̀ 235 for a target of ̀ 220.
`
LEAD MCX (JULY) contract closed at 121.50 on 18th July '13. The contract made its high of 128.90 on
5th June '13 and a low of `118.85 on 25th June '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
Commodity is currently at ̀ 122.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.One can sell in the
range 122-123 with the stop loss of ̀ 125.50 for target of ̀ 116.
` `
JEERA NCDEX (AUGUST) contract closed at 13562.50 on 18th July '13.The contract made its high of
`14107.50 on 22nd July '13 and a low of `13382.50 on 5th July '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 13648.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47. One can buy in the
range 13500-13400 with the stop loss of ̀ 13200 for a target of ̀ 13900.
`
®
NATURAL GAS MCX (JULY)
LEAD MCX (JULY)
JEERA NCDEX (AUGUST)
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Bullion counter remained sideways throughout the week with positive bias last week as the lower
level buying continued along with renewed physical demand. Gold is gaining from short covering
and increase in physical demand but holdings in bullion backed exchange traded products
extended declines. Assets in exchange traded products shrank to 1,978.879 metric tonnes last
week the least since May 2010. Gold continues to trade in range, supported last week by
Bernanke's remarks. Crude oil prices continued its upside momentum as it tested life time high of
above 6470 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in 16 months last
week and posted fourth weekly gain on signs the U.S. economic recovery may be sustainable.
Meanwhile, WTI's discount to Brent shrank to the narrowest since October 2010. Base metals
moved sideways with the upward bias. According to the Labor Department number of Americans
who filed for jobless benefits dropped to the fewest since early May. Copper managed to move in
range of 411 - 422 in MCX. Zinc also remained sideways in range of 108-113 while lead moved
nearly in the range of 120-124 in domestic bourses. Last week Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia's general economic index increased to 19.8, the highest since March 2011.
Since last seven weeks monsoon, now rains has turned average with intensity increasing over
areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the
northeast regions. On the domestic market, among agri-commodities, potato prices witnessed
the steep downfall on the back of the factors such as a supply glut situation in West Bengal &
prospect of a higher crop in South India. Mentha oil counters on the futures platform as well as on
the spot markets were slippery pressurized by higher arrivals and lack of fresh cues of demand.
Among spices, turmeric futures remain stable as the exporters received some upcountry orders &
the stockist quoted higher price for the quality arrival at the spot markets. The oilseeds counters
remain in bearish zone on account of selling pressure & lack of demand from the crushers. In the
international market, Malaysian palm oil hit a 2013 low, pressurized by seasonally higher
production cycle in the second half of the year also raised prospects of inventory levels climbing
higher this month. U.S Soybean futures managed to close in the positive zone on talks that
plantings may fall short of an expected record this year after recent rains kept farmers from
harvesting wheat in fields they intended to replant with the oilseed. The production setback and
rising global oilseed demand resulted in the smallest U.S. soy stockpile in nine years.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 10.07.13 17.07.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.
BARLEY MT 30479 30408 -71
CASTOR SEED MT 143967 144619 652
CHANA MT 154679 155015 336
CHILLI MT 10354 9790 -564
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 73929 69343 -4586
JEERA MT 8410 7621 -789
MAIZE MT 9913 10375 462
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 99512 100466 954
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 18093 17350 -743
SUGAR M MT 12595 9734 -2861
WHEAT MT 16395 16444 49
COMMODITY UNIT 11.07.13 18.07.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 49.00 50.60 1.60
COTTON BALES 157500.00 143700.00 -13800.00
GOLD KGS 351.00 341.00 -10.00
GOLD MINI KGS 86.30 34.30 -52.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 267.14 266.72 -0.42
MENTHA OIL KGS 1088456.75 1351977.80 263521.05
MILD STEEL MT 1355.33 1355.33 0.00
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 47519.05 40811.42 -6707.63
•National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL), has tied-up with Tamil Nadu Co-operative Marketing Federation (TANFED) for buying onion, potato and ginger online.
•India's grain production in 2013/14 is likely to be better than the previous two years as the country is likely to receive normal rainfall during July and August.
•Indonesia's June exports of crude palm oil and its derivatives fell 11 percent to 1.62 million tonnes compared with the previous month.
•India's cotton exports are estimated to have plummeted by 36% to 9.14 million bales in the first 11 months ended June of the current marketing year, a latest USDA report said.
•The U.S. jobless claims dropped to 334,000 last week from a revised 358,000 the prior period.
•According to All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, India's jewellers could continue a voluntary ban on sales of gold coins and bars for six months.
•Swiss and Global Asset Management (GAM) has proposed the launch of four base metal funds backed by physical holdings of aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc.
•China's copper imports in June rose nearly 6 percent from May, climbing for a second straight month to a 9-month high.
•India's National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) has sold 12,000 tonnes of aluminium ingots at a premium of about $219 per tonne.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
QTY.
3.98
2.19 2.08
1.180.74
-8.35
-3.51
-2.73 -2.58 -2.54
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
RED CHILLI CRUDE OIL BARLEY TURMERIC CORIANDER POTATO SOYAMEAL KAPAS PVC NEW GUAR GUM
4.42
2.26
1.38
0.83 0.82
-8.40
-4.05
-2.97-2.73
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL NICKEL GOLD PTL (DEL)
BR. CRUDE OIL
POTATO MENTHA OIL GUAR GUM KAPAS
Copper…………………..the Dr. of economy
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
11.07.13 18.07.13
ALUMINIUM 5425425 5486100 60675
COPPER 646000 641225 -4775
NICKEL 194712 195774 1062
LEAD 194875 196875 2000
ZINC 1020150 1077225 57075
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 12.07.13 18.07.13 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 1257.25 1265.75 0.68
Maize CBOT SEPT Cent per Bushel 545.50 541.00 -0.82
CPO BMD SEPT MYR per MT 2301.00 2305.00 0.17
Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 461.20 462.80 0.35
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 12.07.13 18.07.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1845.00 1805.00 -2.17
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 6954.00 6905.00 -0.70
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2072.00 2036.50 -1.71
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 13775.00 14000.00 1.63
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1903.00 1857.00 -2.42
GOLD COMEX AUG 1277.60 1284.20 0.52
SILVER COMEX SEPT 19.79 19.39 -2.04
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX SEPT 105.55 107.81 2.14
NATURAL GAS NYMEX AUG 3.64 3.81 4.61
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
Copper is one of the important materials in the development of civilization. Copper has become a third major industrial metal after iron and aluminum in terms of quantities consumed. For decades, copper has served as an effective barometer and most reliable indicator of the economic health of a region. This is why financial experts have traditionally referred to copper as “Dr. Copper of economy”
Global production of copper
World mine production is estimated to have increased by almost 11% in the first three months of 2013 compared with production in the same period of 2012. Mine production increased by 7.7% in Chile, the world's leading producer accounting for 32% of world mine production, and by 8.2% in the United States, but declined by 1.2% in Peru. World refined production is estimated to have increased by 5.2% in the first quarter of 2013 compared with refined production in the same period of 2012: primary production was up by 3.8%, and secondary production (from scrap) increased by 11.6%. World production of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by about 415,000 tonnes in 2013, as demand will lag behind the growth in production.
In 2013, world refined copper production is expected to be affected by maintenance shutdowns at smelters but with the restoration of production that was constrained in 2012, and the start-up and expanded capacity in Africa and in China, refined copper production in 2013 is expected to grow by 4.3% to 20.98 Mt. Further growth of 5.1% is anticipated for 2014, with refined production reaching 22.05 Mt.
Global demand of copper
In the first quarter of 2013, world refined copper usage is estimated to have declined by around 5.3% compared with that in the same period of 2012. Chinese apparent demand declined by 10% owing to a 46% decline in net imports of refined copper, according to the latest update from International Copper Study Group (ICSG) ICSG expects world apparent refined demand in 2013 to grow by only 0.3% from that in 2012 to 20.6 Mt.
China is the world's largest consumer of copper. According to China Customs, China imported 340,000 tonnes of scrap copper in June down 22,000 tonnes or 6.17% MoM and down 7.9% YoY. During June, imports of refined copper should be around 250,000 tonnes. From a much wider perspective, the year to date Chinese copper imports are still down around 25% compared to 2012
Copper stock in LME warehouse
Copper has witnessed continuous rise in LME inventories over last year and half. The inventories are up a whopping 160% over last one year and currently linger around ten year highs. On July 16, 2013 , the copper stock were 641830 ton.
Outlook: The red metal is likely to face persistent pressure in coming days as a weak economic backdrop and mounting LME inventories cap the gains. The Indian Rupee, which tested an all time low above 61 levels against the US dollar, could play a key role for the local futures though. China's woes of cash crunch and slow economic growth are compounding nervousness in the market, as investors anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to scale down its bond-buying program, which has propelled commodity prices over the past few years. In fact, the pace of US economy is also not convincing.
®
-3.19
-2.83
-2.09
-1.95
-1.47
-1.30
-1.13
-1.04
-0.59
-0.51
-0.46
-0.42
-0.42
-0.38
-0.28
0.00
0.00
0.54
0.63
2.17
2.63
-4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00
MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
SILVER (DELHI)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
MASOOR (INDORE)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
JEERA (UNJHA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
CHILLI (GUNTUR)
CHANA (DELHI)
GOLD KG (MUMBAI)
MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)
WHEAT (DELHI)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 60.04 60.24 58.96 59.70
EUR/INR 78.20 78.71 77.07 78.23
GBP/INR 90.71 91.05 89.25 90.82
JPY/INR 60.30 60.69 59.16 60.34
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
16th July: Foreigners sold long-dated U.S. securities for a fourth straight
month in May
16th July: U.S consumer prices picked up in June and underlying inflation
pressures showed signs of stabilizing
17th July: Bernanke told Congress Fed flexible on bond buying
17th July: Economy growing at modest to moderate pace: Fed Beige Book
18th July: A gauge of future U.S. economic activity held at a near five-year high
18th July: British retail sales rose in June, the latest sign of a recovery in the economy,
18th July: U.S new claims for jobless benefits fell last week and factory
activity picked up in the Mid-Atlantic region in early July
EUR/INR (JULY) contract closed at 78.23 on 18th July'13. The contract made its high of ̀ 78.71 on 15th July'13 and a low of ̀ 77.07 on 16th July'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 78.11.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.00. One can buy above 78.90 for a target of 79.95 with the stop loss of 78.30
`
JPY/INR (JULY) contract closed at 60.34 on 18thJuly'13. The contract made its
high of `60.69 on 15thJuly'13 and a low of `59.16 on 16thJuly'13 (Weekly Basis).
The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 60.02.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.86
One can sell below 59.00 for a target of 58.00 with the stop loss of ̀ 59.60.
`
Market Stance
Mixed sentiments over the globe kept the investors unclear about the rupee
moves in the week gone by. The gains witnessed in early part of the week were
eroded in the later part as continued dollar demand by the importers along with
volatile equities kept rupee under pressure. However, the sharp fall got
cushioned on the back of RBI's unexpected measures to shore up the currency.
The Reserve Bank of India's raise an emergency funding rate and cap the amount
that banks can borrow from it , followed by the government's relaxation of
foreign investment limits in some sectors. However, failure of sale of 120 billion
rupees in bond market by the RBI also pressured rupee in later art of the week
along with gains in dollar index in overseas market.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (JULY) contract closed at 59.70 on 18th July'13. The contract made its high of ̀ 60.24 on 15th July'13 and a low of ̀ 58.96 on 17th July'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 59.83.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.77. One can sell below 59.60 for a target of 58.50 with the stop loss of 60.15.
`
GBP/INR (JULY) contract closed at 90.82 on 18th July'13. The contract made its
high of ̀ 91.05 on 15th July'13 and a low of ̀ 89.25 on 16th July'13 (Weekly Basis).
The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 90.67.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.14.
One can buy around 90.75 for a target of ̀ 91.85 with the stop loss of ̀ 90.25.
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USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
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Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS
22nd July: USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 4.20%
23rd July: JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July
23rd July: USD House Price Index (MoM) 0.70%
23rd July: EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence -18.8
24th July: EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 48.6
24th July: EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 48.8
24th July: EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services 48.3
24th July: USD New Home Sales (MoM) 2.10%
25th July: GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.30%
25th July: GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.30%
25th July: USD Durable Goods Orders 3.60%
26th July: USD U. of Michigan Confidence 83.9
IPOIPO
INDIAN IPO NEWS
Emcure Pharmaceuticals plans to raise ̀ 600 crore via IPO
Blackstone backed Pune-based Pharma Company, Emcure Pharmaceuticals is looking to raise around `600 crore through an initial public
offering. The company has filed its draft prospectus with capital markets regulator to sell upto 29% stake in the company. The company has
appointed investment banks DSP Merrill Lynch Limited, IDFC Capital Limited and Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited to manage the
issue. Emcure Pharmaceuticals develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of pharmaceutical products in major therapeutic areas
including blood related, cardiology, pain and analgesics, HIV, gynecology, nephrology, anti-infective, and vitamins, minerals and nutrients
products.
ACB India revives IPO plan, to raise ̀ 415 crore
India's largest private coal beneficiation company, ACB India, has revived its plans for an initial public offer after two years, with a smaller
fund-raising target. ACB India, which operates a coal washery and also owns power plants, plans to hit the capital by October with an IPO that
will include 415 crore worth of fresh equity and 388 lakh shares offered by current shareholders. Promoters hold 76.88% in the company, while
21.92% is held by Pineridge Investment, a Warburg Pincus Group Company. While the proceeds from the offer for sale will go to the respective
shareholders, the proceeds from the fresh equity sale will be used by the company to part-finance a 30-MW unit and one 600-mw unit at
Chhattisgarh.
Shemaroo files papers for ̀ 120 crore IPO with SEBI
Shemaroo Entertainment, which is into film and entertainment content business, has filed draft documents with market regulator Sebi to raise
up to ̀ 120 crore through an initial public offer. The IPO comprises "equity shares of face value of ̀ 10 each at the issue price aggregating to ̀ 120
cr.," as per the company's draft red herring prospectus. Besides, the firm is considering a "pre-IPO placement up to 8,00,000 equity shares
aggregating up to `10 cr". The proceeds from the issue would be utilised to funding working capital requirements and general corporate
purposes, it said. Once the IPO is complete, Shemaroo would list the shares on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE. Yes Bank, ICICI
Securities, Link Intime India are the book running lead managers to issue. A leading player in the entertainment industry, Shemaroo is also into
content distribution.
Gujarat Fluorochemicals arm INOX Wind files DRHP with SEBI
Inox Wind, a subsidiary of Gujarat Fluorochemicals , proposed a public issue of its equity shares through 100 percent book building method and
has filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the SEBI on July 05, 2013. The proposed issue consists of a fresh issue of upto ̀ 700 crore and
an offer for sale of up to 2 crore equity shares by Gujarat Fluorochemicals . The Equity Shares offered through this Draft Red Herring Prospectus
are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the NSE. Axis Capital Limited, DSP Merrill Lynch Limited and Edelweiss Financial Services Limited are
appointed as a Global co-ordinators and book running lead managers. However, YES Bank Limited will be the book running lead manager and
Link Intime India Private Limited will be the Registrar to the issue. Inox Wind is a fully integrated player in the wind energy market with state-
of-the-art manufacturing plants near Ahmedabad (Gujarat) for blades and towers and at Una (Himachal Pradesh) for hubs and Nacelles.
Cochin Shipyard Ltd mulls IPO
Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (CSL), which is gearing up to float the country's first indigenous aircraft carrier next month, is mulling an IPO to fund its
expansion plan of around ̀ 1500 crore. CSL chairman and managing director K Subramaniam said the company hoped to offer 2.2 crore shares
and raise around ̀ 400 crore from the capital market.
Just Dial service provider 4889.15 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 699.75 32.03
Repco Home Fin Finance 1754.47 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 282.25 64.10
V-Mart Retail Trading 260.42 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 145.00 -30.95
Bharti Infra. Telecom 29266.80 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 154.95 -29.57
PC Jeweller Jewellary 1359.37 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 75.90 -43.78
CARE Rating Agency 1681.45 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 588.95 -21.47
Tara Jewels Jewellary 294.96 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 120.00 -47.83
VKS Projects Engineering 349.65 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 5.55 -89.91
Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 664.72 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 141.55 -5.63
T B Z Jewellary 1337.00 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 200.45 67.04
MT Educare Miscellaneous 403.77 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 101.50 26.88
Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
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IPO TRACKER
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MUTUAL FUND
NEWS
HDFC MF introduces FMP 371D July 2013 (1)HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 371D July 2013 (1), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 18, 2013, and closes on July 23, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s).
ICICI Prudential MF introduces Capital Protection Oriented Fund IV - PLAN A - 60 MonthsICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Capital Protection Oriented Fund IV - PLAN A - 60 Months, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 18, 2013, and closes on August 1, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek to protect capital by investing a portion of the portfolio in highest rated debt securities and money market instruments and also to provide capital appreciation by investing the balance in equity and equity related securities. The securities would mature on or before the maturity of the Plan under the Scheme. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
ICICI Prudential MF introduces CNX 100 ETF ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential CNX 100 ETF, an open ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 19, 2013, and closes on August 16, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns before expenses that closely correspond to the total return of the Underlying Index, subject to tracking errors. However, there can be no assurance or guarantee that the investment objective of the Scheme would be achieved.
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan- Series HC (618 days)Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series HC (618 days), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 17, 2013, and closes on July 23, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
SBI MF introduces Debt Fund Series - 366 Days – 33SBI Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of SBI Debt Fund Series - 366 Days – 33, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 17, 2013, and closes on July 24 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide regular income, liquidity and returns to the investors through investments in a portfolio comprising of debt instruments such as Government Securities, PSU & Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme.
DSP BlackRock MF introduces FMP - Series 104 -12MDSP BlackRock Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DSP BlackRock FMP - Series 104 -12M, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 19, 2013, and closes on July 22, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of Debt and Money Market Securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Scheme. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
JPMorgan MF introduces US Value Equity Offshore FundJPMorgan Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of JPMorgan US Value Equity Offshore Fund, an Open Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 17, 2013, and closes on July 31, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide long term capital growth by investing predominantly in the JPMorgan Funds - US Value Fund, an equity fund which invests primarily in a value style biased portfolio of US companies. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
Reliance MF introduces Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund IV - Plan AReliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund IV - Plan A, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 17, 2013, and closes on July 31, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and reduce interest rate volatility, through a portfolio of fixed income securities that are maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme along with capital appreciation through equity exposure.
IIFL Fixed Maturity Plan-Series-1 declares dividendIIFL Mutual Fund has declared dividend under the dividend option of IIFL Fixed Maturity Plan-Series-1. The record date for dividend is July 22, 2013. The quantum of dividend will be entire distributable surplus as on record date on the face value of Rs 10 per unit.
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NFOs WATCH
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
09-Jul-2013 23-Jul-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund - Series 15 (39 months) - Direct Plan (G)
Akash Singhania / Kumaresh Ramkrishnan
To generate income by investing in fixed
income securities maturing on or before the
date of the maturity of the scheme and to
generate capital appreciation by investing
in equity and equity related instruments.
18-Jul-2013 25-Jul-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-UTI Fixed Term Income Fund - Series XV - VIII (368 D) (G)
Manish Joshi / Arpit Kapoor
To generate returns by investing in a
portfolio of fixed income securities
maturing on or before the date of maturity
of the scheme.
08-Jul-2013 22-Jul-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-BNP Paribas Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series II (G)
Puneet Pal / Shreyash Devalkar
To seek capital protection by investing in
fixed income securities maturing on or
before the maturity of the scheme and
seeking capital appreciation by investing in
premium of exchange traded options.
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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Prudential Service Industries Fund - G 21.53 30-Nov-2005 140.95 12.96 9.23 32.09 7.94 10.56 1.70 0.66 0.24 58.69 32.58 1.37 7.36
Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 32.58 05-Aug-2005 150.15 6.68 2.94 26.82 12.36 16.00 1.74 0.74 0.19 47.62 40.31 4.72 7.35
Axis Equity Fund - Growth 12.88 05-Jan-2010 547.42 3.37 3.95 23.25 5.46 7.42 1.70 0.83 0.14 79.01 5.86 3.76 11.37
Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 77.02 24-May-1996 103.22 8.60 2.40 22.29 6.94 16.47 1.23 0.48 0.13 63.50 27.37 N.A 9.14
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 16.68 13-Jan-2006 297.29 6.53 -3.29 21.54 5.12 7.04 1.78 0.61 0.15 21.65 59.10 8.74 10.51
Morgan Stanley Growth Fund - Growth 66.96 18-Feb-1994 1312.82 4.59 -0.12 20.61 2.80 12.00 1.71 0.80 0.09 71.48 22.41 0.75 5.37
Franklin India Prima Fund - Growth 321.65 01-Dec-1993 772.93 5.43 -2.75 20.04 5.54 19.33 1.61 0.57 0.13 31.98 54.42 5.23 8.37
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 04/07/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 57.34 09-Oct-1995 398.82 4.45 -1.00 17.53 4.59 15.58 1.19 0.11 28.37 31.85 6.56 33.22
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 56.08 03-Nov-1999 501.94 2.71 -2.25 15.65 9.25 13.40 1.21 0.05 42.43 21.77 2.34 33.46
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 55.19 10-Dec-1999 206.99 3.10 -1.45 12.21 5.60 13.37 1.27 0.02 52.79 18.83 1.26 27.12
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 98.05 08-Oct-1995 545.88 2.84 -1.90 11.96 7.08 15.69 1.39 0.04 51.91 20.01 2.02 26.07
Kotak Balance 18.63 25-Nov-1999 101.44 0.37 -2.10 11.69 5.26 15.14 1.26 N.A 54.87 9.70 0.47 34.96
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 340.57 10-Feb-1995 585.45 0.57 -3.80 11.11 4.68 21.08 1.41 N.A 52.24 15.86 0.72 31.18
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 85.04 20-Jan-1995 913.59 0.43 -4.48 9.68 2.90 15.91 1.28 -0.03 50.83 21.71 0.80 26.66
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.60 03-Jun-2009 411.42 -71.01 -36.98 -27.29 9.71 12.37 7.57 5.75 23.34 2.69 1152.00 7.95
IDFC SSIF - Invt. Plan - Plan F - Growth 13.02 16-Jul-2010 2480.44 -70.35 -36.15 -25.40 6.27 11.08 N.A 9.17 17.02 2.97 1369.00 8.20
SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 29.73 25-Nov-1998 5266.21 -93.76 -46.23 -31.86 6.41 10.88 9.33 7.68 19.92 3.41 2584.00 8.00
IDFC SSIF - Invt Plan - Reg - Growth 28.93 14-Jul-2000 2480.44 -70.35 -36.15 -25.41 6.41 10.83 8.56 8.50 16.76 2.69 1369.00 8.20
Templeton India IBA - Growth 40.80 23-Jun-1997 1372.28 -88.87 -47.08 -25.75 8.08 10.78 9.64 9.14 17.29 2.88 1018.00 8.71
Templeton India IBA - Plan B - Growth 40.80 23-Jun-1997 1372.28 -88.87 -47.08 -25.75 8.08 10.78 9.64 9.14 17.29 2.88 1018.00 8.71
IDFC D B F- Plan A - Growth 24.14 25-Jun-2002 6885.78 -72.05 -37.03 -25.74 6.23 10.71 9.39 8.28 16.74 2.71 1351.00 8.20
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 14.19 25-Mar-2009 825.96 -59.45 -28.09 -13.41 9.95 10.49 9.62 8.43 9.29 4.03 N.A 9.98
Birla Sun Life Short Term Opportunities Fund - Reg - G 19.18 24-Apr-2003 675.56 -50.78 -23.11 -9.87 9.84 10.80 9.69 6.57 8.44 4.27 N.A 9.69
Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.54 26-May-2009 431.16 -47.14 -22.59 -10.36 7.63 8.94 8.56 7.66 7.17 1.83 524.00 9.21
Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 22.08 08-Aug-2002 270.97 -48.82 -22.08 -9.35 7.34 8.83 8.17 7.50 5.69 1.94 500.00 8.49
Sundaram Flexible Fund - ST - Growth 17.82 30-Dec-2004 658.56 -25.34 -10.48 -0.58 7.22 7.70 7.71 6.98 3.08 1.40 255.00 8.13
JPMorgan India Short Term Income Fund - G 13.06 25-Mar-2010 1282.78 -40.52 -16.34 -3.89 7.13 8.62 8.65 8.38 2.65 2.20 768.00 8.73
Templeton India STIP - Growth 2399.08 31-Jan-2002 6306.13 -63.39 -31.31 -13.73 7.05 8.98 8.38 7.93 6.67 2.25 839.00 10.16
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 13.03 26-Jul-2010 2367.30 -11.54 -2.22 4.38 8.66 9.23 N.A 9.28 2.01 2.28 113.00 8.69
Templeton India Ultra Short Bond Fund - Retail - G 15.34 18-Dec-2007 4477.75 -4.99 1.07 5.79 8.52 8.85 8.78 7.96 1.43 1.87 106.00 8.67
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - Gh 16.70 17-Jan-2006 1974.22 -9.66 -1.33 4.43 8.47 8.94 9.22 7.07 2.21 2.32 127.00 8.37
Principal Debt Opportunities Fund - Conservative - G 1906.60 14-Sep-2004 313.06 -5.72 0.97 5.30 8.23 8.83 8.83 7.57 1.33 1.95 149.00 8.59
UTI Treasury Advantage Fund - Reg - G 3025.52 12-Jul-1999 9965.58 -5.15 0.53 4.99 8.16 8.50 8.46 8.21 1.15 1.55 137.00 N.A
Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1797.57 06-Sep-2005 3599.26 -11.10 -2.19 3.89 8.12 8.68 8.82 7.74 1.17 1.83 133.00 8.37
Birla Sun Life Ultra Short Term Fund - Ret - G 216.35 19-Apr-2002 838.18 -9.75 -1.49 3.14 8.10 8.55 8.63 7.10 2.06 1.69 N.A 8.53
Annualised
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24th Founders' Day Celebration held on 16th July at different branches of SMC
BHOPAL MUMBAI
KOLKATA PUNE
SIRSA MALDA
