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To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: September 19, 2014

NY-11 Tracking Survey Analysis

The race in New Yorks 11th Congressional District is now a dead heat, as Domenic Recchia has caught Michael Grimm and now has the momentum as the campaign enters its final

six weeks. Grimm is very well known across the district for a two-term incumbent, and there is a

historical Republican advantage in this district that is very difficult to overcome, particularly in

Staten Island, where nearly 3-in-4 likely voters reside. Turnout trends in a midterm election,

particularly in the Brooklyn section of the district, increase the challenge for Democrats.

Initial research in the district found that voters were vaguely aware of Grimms indictment on twenty counts of federal mail, wire, and tax fraud charges, but they did not

understand the breadth or specifics of the charges. As they have learned more about those

charges and Grimms record in general, they have steadily moved away from him.

Erasing a 6-point deficit in the nations largest media market is no small feat, but six weeks of advertising by the DCCC, combined with Recchias own efforts, has clearly had an impact. The most striking data in our survey

1 of 400 likely voters is the regional breakdown in

the race, which points to the power of the DCCC advertising in this race to date. All of the

movement in the race has come in Staten Island, where a month and a half of consistent

advertising on local cable systems has clearly had an impact.

GRIMM VS. RECCHIA TIME SERIES BY REGION

Total Staten Island Brooklyn 07/14 09/14 07/14 09/14 07/14 09/14

Recchia 44 46 42 45 50 50

Grimm 50 46 54 48 42 42

Undecided 5 8 4 7 8 8

Recchia - Grimm -6 +/-0 -12 -3 +8 +8

Our research suggests that Recchia whose name ID has improved from 42 percent to 57 percent still has room to grow. This is particularly true in Brooklyn, where voters have been less engaged with the campaign and where there has been no significant ad spending to date.

1 GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 400 randomly selected likely voters on September 15-17, 2014. At least 25 percent of all interviews were conducted via cell phone. This survey carries a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.