gary bolton - adtran...partner summit 2014 gary bolton vice president global marketing november 11,...

Partner Summit 2014

Gary BoltonVice President

Global Marketing

November 11, 2014

ADTRAN Company Confidential® Adtran, Inc. 2013 All rights reserved 2

Always appears incremental

until its too late.— Mike Walsh, Futurist


“Everything that can be invented

has been invented.”—1899 — Charles H. Duell

Commissioner of U.S. Office of Patents


“I think there is a world market

for maybe five computers…”—1943 — Thomas Watson

Chairman of IBM


“There is no reason for any

individual to have a

computer in his home”—1977 — Ken Olson

Chairman of Digital Equipment Corp.


“Spam will be a thing of the past

in two years time”—2004 — Bill Gates,

Chairman of Microsoft


Why is change

accelerating?


Moore’s LawNumber of transistors double

approximately every 24 months

1971 1978 2003 2013

# o

f T

ran

sis

tors

AMD Jaguar

5B Transistors

Intel Pentium 4

55M

Transistors

Intel 8086

29K

Transistors

1st Microprocessor

2,300

Transistors

Moore’s Actual


Gilder’s LawThe total bandwidth of communication

systems triples every twelve months.

1997 2007 2017


0.000

0.001

0.010

0.100

1.000

10.000

100.000

1,000.000

10,000.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inte

rne

t A

cc

es

s R

ate

(M

bp

s)

Year

Trend projection:

1 Gbps in 2020

Voiceband Modems Cable Modems, DSL and FTTx

Disruptive Event:

1 Gbps in 2013

Residential service rates ≈ 45% annual growth since 1980s

Discontinuity – Jump to 1 Gbps?Not available everywhere

Broadband Access – Historical Trends


Metcalfe’s LawThe value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes

2 Users

1 Connection

5 Users

10 Connections

Many Users

Exponential Benefit

n(n-1)/2 = connections where n = # users


Convergence of the 3 Laws

Moore’s LawValue of Computing

Gilder’s LawValue of

Communications

Metcalfe’s LawValue of

Networking

Synergistic Reaction


Synergistic Reaction Effect


1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

100

Gigabytes

per Day

100

Gigabytes

per Hour

100

Gigabytes

per Second

2,000

Gigabytes

per Second

16,800

Gigabytes

per Second

46,500

Gigabytes

per SecondGlobal Internet Traffic

*Cisco VNI forecast

Synergistic

Reaction

All

movies

ever

made

crossing

the

global

network

every

4 mins.


1. Rate of change will accelerate

2. Demand for bandwidth is “infinite”

3. Users demand everything “instantly”‒ Any Service, Anywhere, Any Device, Anytime

So… What Can We Conclude?


How does apply to my

business?…


One Example


Back in the 19th Century…

• Need for workers to be literate

• Factory Model of Education

• Introduction of Digital Technology

Economy Shift from Agriculture to Industrial Society

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=_QI_x9UyNLEiRM&tbnid=5cox4X6uQ0HoxM:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.wpclipart.com/buildings/factory/factory.png.html&ei=PVQ3VJ6tDZSgyAScxYGQDA&bvm=bv.77161500,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNF8yuZV9pEG9nHgv4dCtKmGeSGpKA&ust=1412998577538458



Gigabit Networks…

• Empowers students

• “Extreme Learners”

• Connected Learning is Global

Poised to Disrupt and Transform the way Students Learn



http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=qAlMpv2F7lj2cM&tbnid=w-_P9J1_2qRKwM:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.theguardian.com/teacher-network/teacher-blog/2013/jun/19/technology-future-education-cloud-social-learning&ei=Tlc3VPjgH423yAT1goGIDA&bvm=bv.77161500,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNF2kPxmOY8F7xazn6LU5Vi1HUwOSA&ust=1412999334760179

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=qAlMpv2F7lj2cM&tbnid=w-_P9J1_2qRKwM:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.theguardian.com/teacher-network/teacher-blog/2013/jun/19/technology-future-education-cloud-social-learning&ei=Tlc3VPjgH423yAT1goGIDA&bvm=bv.77161500,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNF2kPxmOY8F7xazn6LU5Vi1HUwOSA&ust=1412999334760179


End of Bricks and Mortar Schools?…

• “Instruction” vs “Mentoring”

• Learning adapts to each child

• Personalized education

• Base camps

Gigabit Society will be a Blended Learning Environment

Knowledge Works Foundation




Education in a Post-Industrial

Gigabit Society

• Self-paced

• Personalized

• Learning extends

beyond the bell

• Students pursue their

interests and passions



http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=8mchNqPFYqsTPM&tbnid=SX-FFi-MtURXoM:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://businessfuturist.com/news/news_tag/future-of-education/&ei=tls3VIPbEZCzyATAkYKIDg&psig=AFQjCNFwaegsLhsTCtv8otZROdG9G4NlTw&ust=1413000315187794

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=8mchNqPFYqsTPM&tbnid=SX-FFi-MtURXoM:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://businessfuturist.com/news/news_tag/future-of-education/&ei=tls3VIPbEZCzyATAkYKIDg&psig=AFQjCNFwaegsLhsTCtv8otZROdG9G4NlTw&ust=1413000315187794


Our Brand Promise


How we move

forward.


Innovation…


Transformation…


Into the Future…

gary bolton - adtran...partner summit 2014 gary bolton vice president global marketing november 11,...

Documents