gartner top predicts for 2017 and...
TRANSCRIPT
0 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2017 and Beyond:
Surviving the Storms of
Digital Disruption
Jenny BeresfordResearch Director
Office of the CIO
@zeitjen
1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The Scale of Digital Disruption Is Increasing
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They used to come out of nowhere. Now they cover
large areas over time.
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Predictions About the Future IncreasinglyBecome PredictionsAbout What DisruptsOur Lives
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Enhanced Fujita Scale
EF065-85
EF186-110
EF3136-165
EF4166-200
EF5220+
EF2111-135
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Digital Disrupter Scale Secondary Effects
DD51,000,000s
Autonomous AIUrban Design, Insurance, Laws, Car Ownership
DD4100,000s
3D PrintingOrgans, Manufacturing, End Chinese Dominance?
DD31,000s
Conversational UX and Bots
Teaching, Literacy, Social Engagement
DD2100s
Remote DronesDelivery, Surveillance, Inspection
DD110s
More GamesAugmented Gaming
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By 2020, 100 Million Consumers Will Shop in
Augmented Reality (AR)
Recognize: AR games are the beginning.
1
Prioritize: Smartphones Head-Mounted Displays Tablets
Respond: Deploy ARfor shopping.
Near-Term Flag: By YE17, one in five leading global retail brands deploy AR.
Analysis by: Noah Elkin
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ReasonAnalyze
Last Year, We Postulated That …
The "Robos" Have Already Begun to Rise
Machines will create significant amounts of business content
Generate Inform
Now, "bots" will be a significant part of our reality.
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By 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse.
Who Will You Talk To?
By 2020, 30% of Web Browsing Sessions Will
Be Done Without a Screen 2
Recognize: "Voice-first" interactions are here..
Analysis by: Andrew Frank
Prioritize: Conversational UX Bot Interactions Machine Learning
Respond: Build industry usecases and open APIs.
Near-Term Flag: By YE17, 5%of consumer-facing websitesfeature audio interfaces(aka voice-enabled "chatbots").
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By 2020, smart agents will facilitate
40%
Last Year,We Predicted That …
of mobile interactions, and thepost-app era will begin to dominate.
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20% of Brands Will Abandon Their Mobile
Apps by 2019 3
Recognize: Apps, on average,are not great investments.
Prioritize: Mobile Web Mobile Apps Expired Apps
Respond: Build New ProgressiveWeb Apps and Instant Apps.
Near-Term Flag: At YE17, the number of branded applications realizing monthly usage growth declines from YE16.
Analysis by: Charles S. Golvin
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Adapt Replicate Evolve Spawn
By 2020, Algorithms Will Positively Alter the
Behavior of over 1 Billion Global Workers4
Recognize: Algorithms usebehavioral, psychological, socialand cognitive science.
Prioritize: Catalog Broker Share Protect Algorithms
Respond: Solve talent retention and attraction with pervasive algorithms.
Near-Term Flag: By YE17, increases in profit margins due to positively altered employee behaviors are reported.
Analysis by: Gavin Tay
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Business Innovation will create extraordinary
change from mundane concepts.
Consider This …
DD4
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The Mundane
Validation
Voting
Cryptography
Transactions
The Magic
Visibility
Community
Privacy
Trust
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By 2022, a Blockchain-Based Business Will Be
Worth $10 Billion5
Recognize: Blockchain applicationsare immature, but not for long.
Prioritize: Ledger Experiments Blockchain Ledgers Smart Contracts
Respond: Blockchain roadmapsmust include transaction efficiency.
Near-Term Flag: By YE17, deployment of multimode blockchains across industries
Analysis by: David Furlonger, Martin Reynolds, Ray Valdes
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Digital Giants Are Everywhere
By 2021, 20% of All Activities in Which an Individual Engages Will Involve at Least One of the Top Seven Digital Giants
6
Recognize: The top seven digital giants are Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon,Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent.
Prioritize: Make It Digital Make It Programmable Make It Smart
Respond: Join, or compete with, digital giants' platforms and ecosystems.
Near-Term Flag: By 2018,at least two digital giant brands per kitchen
Analysis by: Hung LeHong
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Secondary effects
will be more
disruptive than the
initial digital change
Consider This …
DD5
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Audience Profile Data
FacialRecognition
EmotionDetection
VoiceRecognition
Through 2019, Every $1 That Enterprises Invest in Innovation Will Require an Additional $7 inCore Execution
7
Recognize: How far your "legacy" IT environment is behind
Prioritize: Modernization Innovation Transformation: Not the other way round
Respond: Evaluate Mode 2 in termsof Mode 1 investments.
Analysis by: Allie Young, Pat Sullivan
Near-Term Flag: By 2018,IT services providers will increase revenue from modernization work by 30%
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Last Year, We Postulated …
… every minute on new IoT hardware
2017
$2.5Mspent …
2021
1MIoT devices …
… purchased andinstalled every hour
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Through 2020, IoT Will Increase Data Center Storage Demand by Less Than 3%8
Recognize: Most IoT-generated datawill not be stored or retained.
Prioritize: In-flight data Distributed analysis Shared transactions
Respond: Investigate distributed data analysis.
Analysis by Peter Middleton and Joseph Unsworth
Near-Term Flag: By YE17,no significant new regulatory requirement to store IoT data
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By 2022, the IoT Will Save Consumers and Businesses $1 Trillion a Year in … 9
… Maintenance
… Services
… Consumables
Recognize: Predictive maintenance saves 10% to 20% over preventive maintenance.
Prioritize: Fix expensive assets Capture quick savings Seek short payback periods
Respond: Identify costs and targeta 10% reduction with IoT.
Analysis by: Benoit Lheureux; Martin Reynolds; Alfonso Velosa
Near-Term Flag: By YE20, suppliers will provide software models of physical assets
Last Year, We Predicted That by 2018 …
2Memployees will be
required to wear health
and fitness tracking
devices as a condition
of employment
Analysis by: Manjunath Bhat and Angela McIntyre
By 2020, 40% of Employees Can Cut Their Healthcare Costs by Wearing a Fitness Tracker10
Recognize: People are nowherenear physically active enough.
Prioritize: Corporate Health Monitoring Fitness Programs Fitness Coaching
Respond: Align metrics to outcomes for employees in your industry.
Near-Term Flag:By YE17, multinational corporations sponsor the use of wearable fitness tracking devices.
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Your Mantra for the 21st Century
Make it Smart!
Make it Programmable…
Make it Digital…
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Action Plan
CIOs, CDOs, and Digital Strategists
Adopt conversational user experience (UX), bots and artificial intelligence (AI).
Learn best practices from the "digital giants"
Look for secondary effects that will change the way people behave
Use Gartner's predictions as planning assumptions for your strategic plans
Evaluate near-term flags that indicate whether a prediction is trending toward
truth or away from it.
Position predictions with longer time horizons as having a lower probability of
coming true than those with shorter time horizons.
28 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The Future Is Ours
© 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or it's affiliates.
29 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Recommended Gartner Research
Top Strategic Predictions for 2017 and Beyond: Surviving the Storm
Winds of Digital Disruption
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Disruption and Disruptors: Differentiating Disruption From Features
and Fads
David Yockelson, David Mitchell Smith, Daryl C. Plummer (G00316473)
2017 Planning Guide for the Internet of Things
Erik T. Heidt (G00313353)
How CIOs Need to Think about Digital Business Technologies
Hung LeHong (G00260066)