gap economic reforms, economic performance, and human ... · 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1998 2000...
TRANSCRIPT
Belarus Gap Analysis: Economic Reforms, Economic Performance, and
Human Capital
USAIDE&E Bureau
Strategic Planning and Analysis DivisionJuly 2013
Belarus Development Profile vs. EurasiaFigure 1
USAID, Monitoring Country Progress (MCP) system. E&E Graduates (n=11): Bulgaria; Croatia; Czech Republic; Estonia; Hungary; Latvia; Lithuania; Poland; Romania; Slovakia; and Slovenia. Balkans (n=6): Albania; Bosnia‐Herzegovina; Kosovo; Macedonia; Montenegro; and Serbia.
1 to 5 Scale
Belarus
CARs
Eurasia
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Democratic Reforms
Economic Reforms
Economic Performance
Human Capital
Peace and Security
Albania
Bosnia and Herz
Macedonia
Serbia
Montenegro
Kosovo
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.Estonia
PolandLatviaLithuania
HungarySlovakia
Slovenia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Ukraine
Russia
MoldovaKazakhstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyszstan
Uzbekistan
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 most advanced. Freedom House, Nations in Transit (June 2013), & EBRD, Transition Report 2012 (November 2012).
Economic and Democratic Reforms, 2012
Democratic Reforms
Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia Threshold, 2006
Econ
omic Reforms
Figure 2
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
BelarusEconomic and Democratic Reforms
Actual 1998‐2012 Projected 2013‐2017
The projections are extrapolations from the average annual trends from 2008‐2012. The economic reform data are drawn from the EBRD’s annual Transition Report, and the democratic reform data are drawn from Freedom House’s annual Nations in Transit.
Figure 3
Romania-Bulgaria-Croatia 2006 Threshold (3.53)
Economic Reforms, 2011Electoral
Process, 1.0
Civil Society, 1.5
Independent Media, 1.2
National Governance ,
1.2
Local Governance,
1.2
Rule of Law, 1.0
Corruption, 1.5
1
2
3
4
5
Democratic Reforms, 2011
Belarus
Small‐scale Privatization,
2.3Trade and Foreign
Exchange, 2.0
Price Liberalization,
3.0
Large‐scale Privatization,
1.7
Enterprise Restructuring,
1.7Competition Policy, 2.0
Banking Reform, 2.0
Non‐bank Financial
Reform, 1.7
Infrastructure Reform, 1.5
1
2
3
4
5
Figure 4
Country graduates = Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
USAID Country Graduates
Belarus
Counter‐Terrorism, 4.5
Combating Weapons of
Mass Destruction,
3.0
Stabilization and Security Reform, 2.8Counter‐
Narcotics, 3.1
Transnational Crime, 2.5
Conflict Mitigation, 2.8
1
2
3
4
5
Peace & Security
GDP Growth, 5 yr , 5
Macro Stability, 3 yr., 3.2
FDI, 5 yr , 1.6
Export Share & Composition,
2.7
Services as % GDP, 2.0
Private Sector Share of GDP,
1.0
Energy Security, 1.7
Environmental Sustainability,
3.1
Income Inequality Ratio,
5.0
1
2
3
4
5
Economic Performance, 2009‐2011GNI per capita,
1.5Under‐5 Mortality Rate, 4.9
Life Expectancy,
2.3
Environmental Health, 4.1
TB Incidence, 1.0
Public Exp. Health, 3.0
Public Exp. Education , 3.2
Education Gaps, 5.0
1
2
3
4
5
Human Capital, 2009‐2011
Figure 5
Country graduates = Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
USAID Country Graduates
USAID MCP system. Drawn from the EBRD Transition Report series. The E&E Graduates (n=11) consist of Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The Balkans (n=6): Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. E&E Eurasia (n=7): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The Central Asian Republics or the CARs (n=5): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Figure 6
E&E Graduates
E&E Eurasia
Balkans
CARs
1
2
3
4
5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 to 5 Scale
Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe & Eurasia
Drawn from the EBRD Transition Report (2011 and earlier editions).
Figure 7
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
1
2
3
4
5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 to 5 Scale
Macroeconomic Reforms in E&E Eurasia
Small‐scale Privatization, 2.3
Trade and Foreign Exchange, 2.3
Price Liberalization, 3.0
Large‐scale Privatization, 1.7
Enterprise Restructuring, 1.7
Competition Policy, 2.0
Banking Reform, 2.0
Non‐bank Financial Reform, 1.7
Infrastructure Reform, 1.5
1
2
3
4
5
Macroeconomic Reforms in Belarus in 2012
USAID Country GraduatesBelarus
Figure 8
Taken from MCP
Figure 9
World Bank, Doing Business (2013), 185 countries are included in the analysis. The business environment is gauged based on 10 aspects: starting a business; dealing with construction permits; getting electricity; registering a property; getting credit; protecting investors; paying taxes; trading across borders; enforcing contracts; and resolving insolvency.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Rank
Business Environment in 2012
E&E Grads
The Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
Others
Figure 10: Microeconomic Reforms: The Business Environment in Eurasia vs. E&E Graduates
World Bank, Doing Business 2012. Percentile rank was converted to MCP 1 to 5.
Better Enviro
nmen
t
Georgia
Ukraine
Moldova
Armenia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Russia
E&E Grads
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The Greatest Advances in the Business Environment since 2005
World Bank, Doing Business 2012. Percentile rank was converted to MCP 1 to 5. The greatest advances from among the Balkans (n=6) and E&E Eurasia (n=7).
Georgia
Macedonia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Albania
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Better Enviro
nmen
tFigure 11
Figure 12: Economic Performance in Belarus
GDP Growth, 5 yr , 5
Macro Stability, 3 yr., 3.2
FDI, 5 yr , 1.6
Export Share & Composition, 2.7
Services as % GDP, 2.0Private Sector Share of GDP,
1.0
Energy Security, 1.7
Environmental Sustainability, 3.1
Income Inequality Ratio, 5.0
1
2
3
4
5
Microeconomic Reforms vs. Macroeconomic Reforms
Business Environment
Macroeconomic Reforms
(Microeconomic Reforms)
World Bank, Doing Business 2012 and EBRD Transition Report 2011.
Albania
Armenia
AzerbaijanBelarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
EstoniaGeorgia
HungaryKazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Latvia
LithuaniaMacedonia
Moldova
Montenegro
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
TajikistanUkraine
Uzbekistan
Kosovo
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
45⁰
Figure 13
Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, 2011. Scores are based from 0 (highly corrupt) to 10 (very clean).
Corruption Perceptions IndexFigure 14
EstoniaSloveniaPolandLithuaniaHungaryCzech Rep.LatviaGeorgiaCroatia
SlovakiaMontenegroMacedoniaRomaniaBulgariaSerbiaBosnia & HerzAlbania
MoldovaKosovoKazakhstanArmeniaRussiaBelarusAzerbaijanUkraineTajikistanKyrgyzstanUzbekistanTurkmenistan
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
France
New Zealand
Poland
Macedonia
Colombia
Belarus
Syria
Kyrgyzstan
Somalia
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Economic Structural Change: Private Sector Share of GDP
% of GDP
EBRD, Transition Report (2011 and earlier editions). The E&E Graduates are Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The Balkans are Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The E&E Eurasia countries are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The Central Asian Republics are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Figure 15
The Lagging Economies in Economic Structural Change: Private Sector Share of GDP
% of GDP
EBRD, Transition Report (2011 and earlier editions). The lagging economies from among the Balkans (n=6) and the E&E Eurasian countries (n=7).
Figure 16
Graduates
Ukraine
Bosnia‐Herz
Serbia
CARs
Belarus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 2013.
Figure 17
E&E Eurasia
Belarus
World
‐10.00
‐8.00
‐6.00
‐4.00
‐2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% of G
DP
Economic Growth and Contraction: E&E Eurasia, Belarus, and the World, 2004 ‐ 2013
IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 2013.
Figure 18
E&E Eurasia
Belarus
Euro Area
‐10.00
‐8.00
‐6.00
‐4.00
‐2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% of G
DP
Economic Growth and Contraction: E&E Eurasia, Belarus, and the Euro Area, 2004 ‐ 2013
Figure 19
EBRD, Transition Report (2012).
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1989
=100
Real GDP as a % of 1989 GDP in Georgia vs. E&E Eurasia Countries
EBRD, Transition Report 2010 and Transition Report 2012 and IMF, World Economic Outlook (2013).
ALB
B‐H
KOS
MACSER
KAZKYR
TAJ
TRK
UZB
RUS
ARM
BEL
GEOMOL
UKR BUL
CRO
HUN
LAT
LITPOLROM
SLK
SLV
EST
GREECE
SPAIN
ITALY
USA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
‐20.0 ‐15.0 ‐10.0 ‐5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
External Deb
t % of G
DP, 201
1
Current Accounts % of GDP, 3 Year Average 2010‐2012
Current Account Balance & External Debt in 2010‐2012
Balkans
CARs
E&E Eurasia
E&E Grad
Other
SurplusDeficit
MON (‐21.37,45.64)
AZE (25.08, 14.94)
Figure 20
Exports as a Percentage of GDP
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2011); International Monetary Fund (2011).
Figure 21
% ofGDP
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
Belarus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports of Fuels, Metals, and Precious Stones in Eurasia
% of Total Exports
Economist Intelligence Unit, individual country reports.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia Armenia Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Ukraine Belarus Turkmenistan
2002‐04
2005‐06
2007‐08
2009‐10
2010‐11
Figure 22
I. Efficient but Dependent II. Inefficient and Dependent
IV. Efficient and IndependentIII. Inefficient but Independent
Energy Security, 2010
Energy Imports(Net % of energy
use)
GDP per unit of energy use
Global Average
Figure 23
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2011).
Azer (5.5, ‐338) Turk (1.7, ‐265)
Alb
BH
BulCr
Mac
RomSrb
CzEst
HunLat Lth
Pol
Slk
Sln
Arm
Bel
Geo
Kyr
Mol
Rus
Taj Ukr
Uzb
USA
Argentina
Mexico
Denmark
Costa Rica
‐100
‐75
‐50
‐25
0
25
50
75
100
1234567891011
Australia (6.7, ‐119) Kaz (2.3, ‐109)
I. Gill and M. Raiser, Golden Growth: Restoring the Luster of the European Economic Model, World Bank (2012).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 2009
Labor productivity in E&E vs. EU‐15(constant 2005 US$, thousands)
Figure 24
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Fig. 25: Innovation: R&D Expenditures, Public and Private, 2005‐2010
% of GDP
% of B
usinesses
World Bank and EBRD, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (2009). The percentage of businesses which perceives labor skills to be a significant business constraint.
Skills and Education of the Workforce as a Business Constraint
Figure 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
E&E grads Serbia Bosnia‐H Albania Macedonia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Russia Moldova Georgia Ukraine
2005 2008
Life Expectancy Gender Gap
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Years
Figure 27
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2012).
Male and Female Adult Mortality Rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Male Female
Figure 28
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2012).
Per 1
,000