game changers - sustainability west midlands · summary – impact of game changers on scenarios 8...

Game changers

1

Content

• Introduction – The context for the work

• Method – brief overview of the method we used

• The stimulus material

• The analysis process

• Summary – impact of game changers on scenarios

• Game changers - Assessment of impacts of each game changer – External factors

– National measures

– Technologies

– City-scale issues

• Conclusions

• Annex 1 – Lessons from international low carbon cities – Best-practice experience from 6 low carbon cities.

2

Introduction

The question this work package answers is:

Given the 2050 energy scenarios being developed; what are the game

changers that could either accelerate or inhibit those plans in the future?

Why this is important:

• To ensure that the context for Birmingham Energy Strategy is as relevant in

the future as it is today

• To understand the risks of each of the proposed strategy themes

• Input these findings into the strategy development process

An example of a game changer might be a dramatic improvement in battery technology

that would severely compromise an energy strategy based on hydrogen as the main

transport fuel.

3

Process for identifying game-changers

• Birmingham CC engaged Element Energy to carry out a brainstorming and

filtering exercise using energy experts to explore possible energy game

changers

• Three main areas were chosen and stimulus material created.

4

Best

practice in

cities

Technology Regulations

Represented at the brainstormings were:

• Element Energy – experts in the low carbon

energy space

• PHA – experts in the development of low

carbon cities; particularly in Asia

• Energy Saving Trust – supporting BCC

scenario development

• Encraft – energy consultants specialising in

renewable energy

Each session followed the same format:

• Ideas captured around the topic areas

• These ideas are then grouped into themes

• These ideas are then recorded

Stimulus material

5

Best practice in

cities

• Environmental pressure

• Commercial pressure

• Public transport

• Public spaces

• Transport

• Energy infrastructure

• Data infrastructure

• Waste systems Energy

generation

Technology

• Increased connectivity

• Power generation

• Energy storage

• Transport

• Materials

• Data transfer

• Chemicals

• Heat

• Waste

• Biotechnology

Regulation

• Technology standards

• Subsides

• Green taxes

• EU carbon price

• Personal CO2 quotas

• Waste policy

• Oil/gas shocks

• Standard of living

• Social changes

• Climate change

The goal of the stimulus material was to provide thought provoking concepts that

speak to the future. In addition provide high level evidence of those changes to the

energy landscape. The information was drawn from the experience of the team and

publicised energy scenarios. It was written not to lead or draw conclusions

The analysis process

6

Brainstorming output

Spread sheet

300 ideas generated and grouped

into mind mapping software

110 themes captured &

consolidated into 40

Filtering process

Filtered against the 8 major energy

themes and the top 20 game

changers identified

Filters

National measures

Energy efficiency

Demand behaviour

Biomass CHP

Biomass district heating

Local renewables

Transport modes

Transport fuels

Top 20 game changers analysed,

investigated and results fed back

to the strategy team

3 brainstormings

Slide pack Analysis

Results of game changers analysis

Issues that could have a disruptive effect on the current energy landscape

7

Summary – impact of game changers on scenarios

8

Each of the game changers was scored on its like impact on each of the scenario

themes identified in Birmingham City Council’s prior work. Green means ‘highest’

impact, while black means that the game changer does not affect this area.

NB. Full details of the scoring methodology are included in the spread-sheet

that accompanies this report.

A scoring method was used to identify

the game changers that have the

greatest potential impact

External factors

9

Oil price shocks

10

Present position 2050

What defines it as a game

changer?

• Target OPEC oil price $70 –

80 /bbl

• Several events that double

the oil price for a period of

less than one year

The areas this game changer

will impact

Significantly this game changer will change public, commercial and

government opinion, facilitating conversion to new energy

paradigms.

The issues this will impact are:

• Increased pressure to transition from oil in the transport sector

• Spike in gas bills for CHP systems and domestic boilers

increase demand for lower cost fuels for heat.

• Economy contraction and recessionary pressures

• The restriction of capital

• Improved business confidence in sustainable energy

investments .

Drivers • Geopolitical factors caused by concentration of fossil fuel

resources in small number of states.

• ‘Peak oil and gas’ leading to decreasing production and

spiralling prices.

Inhibitors • Significant demand reduction

• Cost-effective (and cleaner) technologies for using

unconventional fossil fuels such as tar sand/shale oil.

Likelihood • There are many reasons for this to occur. Oil price is controlled

and has a large political element. War and other events will

increase oil price. Hurricane Katrina alone increased the UK

petrol price by 5%

Connection to other game

changers

Visible climate change; Cultural change.

Impact analysis: Strongly affects all scenarios In the 1970s, oil price shocks drove

rapid improvements in energy

efficiency and had changed

government policy across the world.

Similar shocks in the future (either

price shocks or genuine shortages

causing brown-outs, queues for petrol

etc.) could cause another step

change in our attitudes to energy

efficiency and dramatically change

the economics of alternative energy

technologies.

Highly visible climate change

11



changer?

• Global temperatures have

risen 0.6 degrees in the last

century.

• + 1-2 C rise in global

temperatures. Effect on

UK/Birmingham uncertain.


will impact

• This game changer will affect public, commercial and

government opinion.

• Will make local behaviour change policies easier to implement.

• Extreme weather events (e.g. flooding) may make some areas

uninsurable or impose high costs for insurance companies and

consumers.

• Energy demand could increase, for example if there was

widespread adoption of air conditioning as a response to

summer heat waves.

• In all cases there will be cost and legislative pressure to reduce

CO2 emissions and increased public acceptance of such

policies.

Drivers • Continued emissions growth (particularly in the developing

world) may cause atmospheric CO2 levels to exceed current

projections.

Inhibitors • Strong internationally-coordinated action to reduce emissions.

• Step change in behaviour and technological solutions to reduce

emissions.

Likelihood • The world is currently tracking the ‘high emissions’ projections

made by organisations such as the IPCC. Recent agreements

(e.g. Copenhagen Accord) failed to agree binding commitments

to reduce emissions.


changers

Oil price shocks, cultural change.

Impact analysis: Strongly affects all scenarios The UK being hit regularly by obvious

changes in climate would undoubted

solidify public opinion.

These changes might be increased

temperatures causing droughts,

flooding or even an increase in

extreme weather events like

tornadoes. Equally the weather

during the winter or summer may

become significantly colder.

The net effect would be to increase

public support for policies aiming to

reduce green house gas emissions.

12

Energy demand increases because of

strong growth per capita



changer?

• GDP of £23,000 per capita • This could increase to £50k

per capita based on 2%

annual GDP growth.


will impact

• Increased demand for heating and cooling (although this will

plateau as comfort needs are met)

• Increased transport demand, including flying.

• Increased consumption of energy using products etc. consumer

electronics

• Less emphasis placed on energy efficiency investments as

energy savings are small compared with incomes.

Drivers • Historic trends have shown that energy consumption, travel

demand etc. is closely correlated with incomes. The fuel poor do

not currently use enough energy to meet their needs for thermal

comfort (i.e. there is a latent demand for increased

consumption)

Inhibitors • The debt burden and pension provision eventually needs to be

paid and this may reduce GDP growth.

• Shock events that effect the global economy such as war and oil

price fluctuations

• Higher incomes combined with an appetite for CO2 reduction

measure may increase levels of investment.

Likelihood • The historical trend over the past 50 years is strong. However,

some trends (such as total vehicle kilometre growth) are already

starting to level off.


changers

• Local renewable energy; Cultural change.

Impact analysis: Affects energy demand reduction and behaviour change People are wealthier; have more

energy consuming possessions;

activities in their lives generally

consume more energy.

We have see the UK quality of living

increase substantially over the past

50 years and this trend looks likely to

continue driven by lower cost goods

and higher productivity. This is likely

to increase the energy demand on

the system

13

Public backlash at the cost of sustainability



changer?

• Broad cross-party support for

CO2-reduction policies.

• Limited public resistance to

currently announced policies.

• Widespread public and

political opposition to

emissions cuts once ‘easy’

measures have been taken.


will impact

This will impact local initiatives and reduce the rate of take-up.

This will affect in particular:

• Demand reduction measures

• Local energy measures perceived as having negative visual or

cost impacts

• Policy support for renewable energy (local and national)

• National measures, dependent on large-scale roll out of

expensive renewables and CCS.

If the cost drivers are still in place it may not effect the changes to

electric transport and fuel changes.

Drivers • Political changes in the UK landscape and visible support of

climate change policy fading. The public’s energy bills increase

steeply due to carbon abatement measures causing the UK to

become less competitive and causing economic issues e.g.

unemployment

Inhibitors • Carbon reduction is closely linked with energy reduction.

Therefore cost reduction.

• Grass roots support for the environment is keeping it high on the

agenda.

• Concerted international action of emissions by all nations gives

Governments no choice

Likelihood • Heavily dependent on the outcome of post-Kyoto emissions

agreements, and also the pace of climate change.


changers

Cultural change; Grid doesn’t decarbonise; Retrofit and new build

policy.

Impact analysis: Strongly affects all scenarios

Renewables and other carbon saving

measures will increase the cost of

energy and may require significant

changes in lifestyle and energy

consumption. This could polarise

public opinion and cause a public

backlash, especially if other nations

failed to take action to reduce their

own emissions. This would reduce

the uptake of all the technologies.

Legislation and fiscal measures

would stall.

Overall this would make reaching the

2050 targets significantly more

difficult to achieve.

14

Short to medium term restrictions in access

to capital



changer?

• The flow of capital is

presently restricted

• Several large recessions

have caused progress to stall

at critical points, reducing

overall progress to reduce

emissions.


will impact

• Reduced capital would profoundly affect all the initiatives that

require infrastructure investments

• CCS

• New transport fuels

• District heating

• Local renewables

Drivers • The banking system has other more attractive places to invest

money than in the decarbonisation of the energy system.

• The inherent risk is high either caused by technology or policy

decisions from governments

Inhibitors • Strong policy signals from government increase investor

certainty in the sector.

• The ‘green’ economy could be seen as a route to diversify the

UK’s output and see sustained investment.

Likelihood • The recent banking crisis has shown that money supply can be

severely restricted. However, the recession also showed that

renewable industries (e.g. PV) can continue to grow if policy

support remains.


changers

• Strong growth in GDP/incomes

Impact analysis: Strong impact on national measures and local renewable energy Many of the carbon saving measures

require substantial capital

investments with a long term view on

the return. Any restrictions in capital

over the period up to 2050 would

reduce the up-take of carbon

reducing measures.

For technologies at the threshold of

mainstream deployment, short term

restrictions in finance may cause

companies to fail, harming medium

and long-term progress.

Similarly, cuts to R&D programmes

may delay the introduction of future

innovations.

National measures

15

The electricity grid does not decarbonise fast enough

16

Present position 2030 - 2050


changer?

• Carbon intensity of the

electricity grid 500g/kWh

• Renewables penetration is

currently under 10%.

• Target is to reach 100g/kWh

in 2030 (CCC projection)

• It may fail to reach this and

remain at 300g/kWh

(equivalent to new gas-fired

generation)


will impact

Greatly reduces carbon benefit of any measures that use grid

power:

• District energy or heat pumps or electrical heating

• Transport – electric vehicles

Enhances the carbon savings effect from:

• District heating from biomass

• Local renewables (including gas-fired CHP)

• Biofuels or decarbonised hydrogen

Drivers • Commercial – the additional costs of decarbonising are not

borne by business. Capital investment remains difficult.

• Technology – new technologies e.g. CCS may not be available

at sufficiently low cost/risk.

• Societal – society could reject new nuclear power

• Governmental – the government unable to drive change quickly

enough in a loosely regulated market.

Inhibitors • Climate change – may drive this issue

• Energy shocks – Oil and gas price rises

• Renationalisation of the grid?

Likelihood • There are a large number of barriers to the decarbonisation of

the grid centred around private ownership and the requirement

to coordinate the investment needed to decarbonise the grid.


changers

• Decarbonisation of the gas grid

Impact analysis: This is the single biggest game changer for any scenario based on

decarbonisation of the grid and the electrification of heating/transport. Most energy strategies (including that

of the UK as a whole) are heavily

reliant on the rapid decarbonisation of

the grid and the ability to supply low

carbon power for new sectors such

as heating (through heat pumps) and

transport.

This requires a enormous capital

investment in new renewables, CCS,

and potentially a new generation of

nuclear power stations. If any of

these fail to deliver, it will severely

reduce the CO2 savings of a strategy

based on heat pumps and EVs.

The gas grid does decarbonise

17



changer?

• Natural gas (fossil) 100%

• Biogas and other 0%

• Biogas penetration of 20-

50%, depending on overall

gas demand.


will impact

Encourages the use of gas at a local level:

• Boilers and other devices

• Gas-fired CHP becomes a very low carbon source of electricity

and heat/cooling.

• Gas used as a transport fuel

Makes other heating schemes less attractive:

• Heat pumps only outperform gas boilers if the electricity grid

decarbonises significantly as well.

• Reduces CO2 benefits of energy efficiency, but financial benefits

will remain, especially if bio-derived gas is more expensive.

Drivers • Commercial – reduced North Sea gas availability and rising gas

prices will make biogas projects increasingly viable.

• Technology – the technology exists and is operating on a

commercial basis. Current barriers are economic.

• Governmental – There remains a growing need for energy

security. Waste policy may also drive increase in biogas

availability (e.g. through anaerobic digestion).

Inhibitors • Energy prices for gas remain low

• Biomass/waste resource may be insufficient to have large

impact on overall gas grid intensity.

Likelihood • It is very likely that the gas grid will slow decarbonise over time.

The extent of this change will be driven by commercial

pressures.


changers

• Electrical grid does not decarbonise

Impact analysis: Significant impact on district heating and benefits of centralised versus

decentralised energy production.

The natural gas grid delivers far more

energy to Birmingham than the

electricity grid does. If the gas grid

were to be decarbonised through

widespread use of bio-methane

injection and/or hydrogen blends, this

would significantly impact the relative

merits of heat pumps versus gas-fired

district heating or CHP (or even

standard boilers) as Birmingham’s

main heating strategy.

It could also play an important role if

the electricity transmission and

distribution is unable to supply

sufficient low carbon power to the

city.

18

New build policy



changer?

• Current new buildings

regulations can be met using

fabric measures and limited

‘active measures’ such as

solar PV/solar thermal.

• All new homes and

commercial buildings are

‘zero’ carbon.

• District heating networks

may have developed around

these new developments


will impact

Significant effect on the role of new developments in shaping

energy strategy in the existing stock.

Evidence that the Feed-in Tariff (+ RHI) is leading developers to

favour ‘individual’ solutions e.g. solar PV and heat pumps.

If the legislation permits ‘off-site solutions’ such as large wind

farms, it removes the need to develop local energy solutions.

If developers choose to pay money into ‘offset funds’ to fund local

energy developments and energy efficiency, this could drive

significant improvements in the existing stock.

Drivers • The final design of the ZCH policy regarding ‘allowable

solutions’

• Changes in the economics of renewables caused by the

introduction of the FIT (and potentially RHI).

Inhibitors • The ZCH policy is being progressively .eroded and may be less

stringent by 2016

Likelihood • Uncertain – decisions taken by developers will depend on

economics of each option when the developments are designed.


changers

District heating

Small-scale renewables.

Impact analysis: Major impact on new buildings, with strong implications for nearby

existing buildings and the economics of district heating schemes.

The Zero Carbon Homes policy will

cause a dramatic reduction in CO2

emissions for new homes. The design

of the policy and the interaction with

existing incentives (e.g. the Feed-in

tariff) could lead to wide-spread

adoption of district heating, or a focus

on ‘individual’ measures like solar PV.

This has big implications for the

retrofit stock, as it could drive down

costs for small-scale renewables or

provide anchor loads for city-wide

district heating systems.

19

Energy policy for the existing building stock



changer?

• Current programmes focus

on ‘easy measures’ such as

cavity wall insulation

• These will saturate in the

next 5 years.

• The entire housing building

stock is broad up to a good

energy efficiency standard.

• The least efficient homes are

demolished if they are too

hard to improve to the

required standard.


will impact

• This will have a major effect on energy consumption in the

current building stock.

• A increase in the demolition rate is likely to target homes that

are inefficient but also unfit for other reasons (e.g. damp, lack of

amenities).

Drivers • Energy efficiency policy already starting to target ‘hard to treat’

homes.

• Existing buildings will be responsible for the majority of building

energy use in 2050.

Inhibitors • Very high costs of treating the least efficient homes.

• Culture of protection of old buildings is likely to cause resistance

to a policy of increased demolitions.

Likelihood • Some improvement in the existing stock is inevitable, but it is

uncertain whether we will bring all old buildings up to the

standard of recent properties.


changers

• New build policy

Impact analysis: Determines the degree of energy savings from the biggest energy-

using sector.

The previous game-changer focused

on New Build Policy, but c. 70% of

the building stock that will exist in

2050 has already been built.

Recent energy efficiency

programmes have made good

progress on loft insulation and cavity

wall insulation, but future policy must

deal with ‘hard to treat’ properties.

Effective policy in this area, combined

with new technologies (e.g. for solid

wall insulation) could deliver dramatic

CO2 savings from the existing stock.

However, the costs of this may mean

that an increase in the demolition rate

to remove the least efficient buildings

will be an important part of the

solution.

20

Feed-in Tariff and Renewable Heat Incentive

Present position 2030-2050


changer?

• Until now, no small scale

renewables have been

economic.

• Deployment has depended

on early adopters with strong

environmental attitudes.

• Widespread deployment of

renewable heat and

electricity.

• PV installed on several

million households.

• Significant ‘electrification’ of

heating sector and use of

biomass where available.


will impact

• This will cause a step change in the deployment of small-scale

renewables.

• It could also dramatically alter the strategies used by developers

to meet Zero Carbon Homes targets, favouring ‘individual level’

measures which are now cost-effective.

Drivers • Policies already implemented.

• Sector already delivering cost reductions as supply chain

matures.

Inhibitors • Backlash against costs of the scheme could force government

to scale back its ambitions in this area.

Likelihood • FITs have delivered substantial deployment in every country

where they have been introduced. RHI is the first of its kind;

current uncertainty about the performance of heat pumps as a

low carbon heating technology.


changers


Impact analysis: Will cause a step change in private investment in small-scale

renewables over the next decade.

Although, they are existing/short-term

policies, the FIT and RHI have the

potential to dramatically change the

game for small-scale renewables. By

offering a positive rate of return for

these technologies, they should

create substantial private investment

that simply has not been possible

until now.

In Germany, where the FIT has been

operating for over 5 years, PV is now

being installed at a rate of 6GW per

year, and technology costs have

fallen sharply as the market has

matured.

The RHI could cause a similar step

change in the heating market if

introduced in 2011.

Technologies

21

Higher performance batteries

A low cost high performance battery

would have a profound effect on the

Birmingham energy system enabling

the rapid commercialisation of

intermittent power and decarbonising

the grid.

It would also allow battery electric

vehicles to displace liquid fuels (and

even H2, for most transport

applications.

22



changer?

• Energy density max

150Wh/kg in vehicles

• High cost (£20,000 for a 100

mile range)

• Concerns over safety of

some lithium chemistries

• Concerns about performance

over vehicle lifetime

• 500Wh/kg

• £2000 for a 100 mile range

• All safety issues overcome

• High performance over

whole lifetime.

• Flexibility to allow rapid (10

minute) charging.

• Cost effective Vehicle to Grid


will impact

• Transport – batteries not restricted to ‘city cars’ and are used in

almost all vehicle types.

• Electric vehicles can be used for Vehicle to Grid to smooth

demand peaks and intermittency of renewables.

• Local renewables – enables the widespread use of renewables,

including local or domestic level energy storage to manage grid

loads.

Positive drivers • Commercial – it is recognised that this is a huge market for all

electrically based equipment

• Governmental – multiple governments funding R&D

programmes or subsidising early market deployment.

Inhibitors • Even chemistries in the lab are not yet achieving close to

500Wh/kg

• Availability of exotic minerals and materials

• Potential safety of high energy chemicals

Likelihood • DOE scenarios suggests that the USA government see this as a

likely scenario

• Previous improvements to battery technology


changers

• Materials, nanotechnology, interconnectivity of devices

Impact analysis: This game changer determines the course of electrification of the

transport sector ; significant impacts on grid electricity storage strategies.

23

Widespread adoption of hydrogen as a transport fuel



changer?

• Hydrogen vehicles are

supplied as prototype fleets

being distributed by the

OEMs

• Hydrogen used as a

transport fuel for most

vehicles

• Fuel cell vehicles reduce to a

cost at or below all other

vehicles


will impact

• High availability of low cost hydrogen would impact the

attractiveness of battery electric vehicles.

• The grid would therefore remain separate from the energy

supply for transport.

• An employment opportunity in Birmingham due to implied

change in the automotive sector

Drivers • Hydrogen is the ultimate clean fuel producing only water at the

point of use. Low temperature fuel cells have no moving parts

and promise to be cheap once mass produced. They are

inherently more efficient than combustion processes.

• Most vehicle manufacturers agree hydrogen is the ‘ultimate’ fuel

suitable for all vehicle segments.- i.e. not just small cars

Inhibitors • Lack of high density H2 storage will reduce cost-effectiveness.

• Distribution infrastructure must be in place to support vehicles.

• Scarcity of precious metals may cause fuel cells to remain

expensive.

• FC vehicles must prove cost reduction potential.

Likelihood • The movement to hydrogen buses, fork lift trucks and captive

fleets is already underway. This is likely to create a demand for

urban cars. These initiatives will form the basis for H2 rollout.


changers

• Electric vehicles

Impact analysis: Will determine whether hydrogen or electricity is the major fuel source

for road transport in 2050.

Commercial hydrogen vehicles are

nearing commercialisation. While

hydrogen has significant technical

hurdles the advantages are

significant if those hurdles are

overcome.

24

New materials – low cost photovoltaics and super-insulation



changer?

• Photovoltaics are energy

intensive to produce and

cannot compete with grid

electricity in the UK.

• Cost effective insulation

products do not exist for

‘hard to treat’ buildings.

• Low-cost, flexible PV can

integrated into roof tiles,

glass, walls. Cost of energy

lower than grid electricity.

• ‘Super-insulation’ offers low-

cost, low-impact solution for

solid wall homes, heritage

buildings.


will impact

Significant impacts on almost every aspect of energy use in cities.

Specifically:

• Every home or building could be an energy generator offsetting

its own consumption.

• This would create a demand for energy storage to allow daytime

PV output to be used to meet evening energy demand.

• All solid walled buildings could be brought up to the energy

performance of today’s new buildings with minimal impact on

building appearance/interior space etc.

• Other materials advances, such as lightweight composites,

could significantly reduce demand from road vehicles.

Drivers • Huge investment in PV due to current feed-in tariffs across EU.

• Requirement for new products to address energy performance

of c. 7 million solid wall homes in the UK.

Inhibitors • Risk that such materials (though they already exist) cannot be

mass-produced at sufficiently low cost.

Likelihood • Modest – PV already expected to reach grid parity in sunny

countries by 2015-2020. Superinsulation already used in niche

applications


changers

Retrofit energy policy, local renewable energy.

Impact analysis: Could influence every area of our current energy use, particularly

energy use in buildings and local renewables.

By 2050, advances in materials

science could dramatically change

the way we use energy in our cities.

Two possibilities are described here.

The first is very low cost

photovoltaics that can be applied to

almost any building or surface. The

second is ‘superinsulation’ such as

aerogels, which could be used to

address ‘hard to treat’ buildings such

as solid wall houses.

City-scale issues

25

26

Highly empowered state



changer?

• Generation and the grid

under separate control.

Private companies operating

the assets

• Energy companies and the

grid controlled by

government. Large scale

investments made by the

state.


will impact

Decarbonising a whole society will require co-ordinated decision

making and a long-term view of investments. This game changer is

likely to improve the position of almost all the initiatives.

It would improve the position of decentralised measures such as

decarbonising of the national electrical and gas grid where large

investments are required

At the same time it would also accelerate the ability to force

through decentralised initiatives such as district heating fuelled by

biomass and the forced improvement of domestic energy

efficiency.

Drivers • The need to carry out either unpopular measures, or measures

where the benefit or value occurs in another part of the system

Inhibitors • The return to state control would be an unpopular political

repositioning of the state; especially given the energy system

does not stand in isolation and therefore the empowerment

would cover all state activities.

Likelihood • Evidence gathered in the cities section suggests that a holistic

state based view of the energy system needs to occur. However

cities that achieved this already had a cultural acceptance.

Therefore this is less likely to occur in the UK.


changers

• Connects to all game changers to some extent

Impact Analysis: Affects almost all areas of energy strategy. Could speed up deployment

of technologies

One of the biggest barriers to low

carbon investment is that private

actors often do not capture the social

costs and benefits of their decisions

over long timeframes.

A highly empowered state would take

a more rational, long-term view of the

measures required to make systemic

carbon reductions.

Many of the successes in existing

cities (e.g. Copenhagen, Hammarby

Sjöstad), have required strong

leadership and control by the state to

deliver rapid progress.

27

Changing ownership models



changer?

• Most assets owned by

individuals, including

vehicles, heating systems

etc.

• Widespread use of sale of

service models, community

sharing of vehicles etc.

• ‘Warmth’ delivered by

companies responsible for

energy efficiency and heating

technologies.


will impact

This game changer is a key enabling action for new technologies

with high capital costs or limited capabilities (e.g. Electric vehicles

with a short range). It is likely to impact:

• Car ownership levels – Streetcar estimates that each shared

vehicle removes 26 cars from the road.

• Roll-out of energy efficiency measures alongside new heating

systems – Pay as You Save schemes and Energy Services

contracts for new microgeneration.

• Use of public transport – public transport competes better if car

owners see the full ‘cost per mile’ cost for every journey.

• Life of products – shared ownership creates an incentive to

design for long life

Drivers • High capital costs and technology risk with new technology

• Cost savings relative to owning low-utilisation assets (cars are

parked for 95% of their lives)

Inhibitors • Strong ‘culture’ of ownership’ in the UK relative other countries.

Likelihood • High – well-established for mobile phones. Car clubs already

have over 100,000 members in the UK.


changers

New transport technologies – hydrogen and electric vehicles

District heating; Cultural change.

Impact analysis: Key enabler for many of the other game changers in the presentation. The past century has seen a strong

trend towards ownership of assets,

from homes to cars, and domestic

appliances such as washing

machines, TVs etc. Will we see a new

trend towards sale-of-service models,

and shared ownership of capital-

intensive assets, like the current

business model for mobile phones?

Such a shift could be an important

enabler for new technologies such as

electric vehicles, if people could

access a range of vehicles with

different capabilities, rather than

owning a single model.

28

Restricted availability of biomass



changer?

• All sectors see a significant

role for biomass as a low

carbon energy source or

feedstock for manufacturing.

• Land pressure may severely

restrict the availability of

biomass for non-food uses.

• The aviation sector may use

the majority of the biomass

resource.


will impact

Significant impacts on any part of the energy strategy relying on

biomass to reduce the CO2 footprint from fuel/feedstock use.

• Low carbon district heating may not be cost-effective if wood

price rises significantly due to demand for gasification/synthetic

fuels.

• Feedstocks for transport fuels may be allocated to aviation due

to the sector’s limited CO2 mitigation options.

• Limited decarbonisation of the gas grid – strategy is entirely

dependent on widespread waste /biomass availability.

• Limited biofuels for transport means only EV’s or H2 available

as a zero carbon option.

Drivers • Food/fuel compeittion and prices pressures as seen in 2008.

• Concern over environmental performance of fuels (e.g. CO2

emissions due to land use change)

Inhibitors • Advances in new feedstocks/processing technologies (e.g.

small-scale gasifiers. Use of algae could significantly increase

availability of biomass for a given land area.

Likelihood • Uncertain – UK government has recently been advised to lower

short-term biofuels targets due to uncertainty about

environmental impacts.


changers

District heating

New fuels for transport

Impact analysis: This could radically alter the shape and scale of the biomass sector and

any strategy relying on biomass as a low-carbon fuel.

Many sectors of the economy,

including buildings, transport, aviation

and manufacturing are relying on

biomass for the next generation of

low-carbon fuels and plastics.

For a city such as Birmingham, there

are several scenarios that could

severely restrict the availability of

biomass for district heating schemes

or transport fuel. These could include

food/land pressure or competition

from other sectors.

29

Sustainable masterplanning



changer?

• Residential and commercial

districts are separated.

• Culture of commuting into

and out of cities.

• New developments

incorporate living, working

and leisure space. Demand

for commuting reduced.


will impact

• Sustainable masterplanning impacts almost every aspect of how

a city functions:

• Demand for transport

• Viability of district heating/renewables

• Energy use in buildings (e.g. use of green space to

reduce urban heat island effect)

Drivers • Planning system and developers already moving away from

dormitory/commuting developments.

• Increasing congestion and overcrowding creates public appetite

for different modes of living and working.

Inhibitors • Cultural change could present a barrier for new types of

developments.

• Sustainable masterplanning is difficult to implement in a well-

established city such as Birmingham.

Likelihood • Likely to occur in new developments, where

developers/planners wish to avoid high density housing blocks

with no access to services and jobs.


changers


Impact analysis: Major influence of energy usage in new developments within

Birmingham, and interaction with existing parts of the city.

The layout of a city can have a

dramatic impact on its energy use.

Most new developments (e.g

Masdar), use mixed use

developments to reduce commuting

and personal transport, and take into

account climate factors to reduce

building energy demands.

This approach is difficult to implement

in an existing city, but should be

emphasised in all new developments

in Birmingham.

Cities

Lessons learned from other low carbon initiatives

30

www.element-energy.co.uk

Central Copenhagen

31

Game changers Widespread adoption of district heating

Use of energy from waste in urban areas

Enabling actions

• Progressive CO2 and energy targets since 1970s.

• In 2009, the city council adopted a plan for reducing CO2 emissions by an additional

20% by 2015.

• Overall vision is to make Copenhagen the world’s first carbon neutral capital by 2025.

• Creation of state-owned Metropolitan Copenhagen Heating Transmission Company

• Obligation for new customers to connect to the DH network.

• Electric heating banned.

• District heating compulsory for all buildings in district heating zones.

• Locally-sited Waste to Energy plants feeding DH networks.

Success 98% of heat is sourced through the district heating scheme covering 1500km2, 30,000

customers, 500,000 people

Time scales The district heating system was started in the 1920’s.

Costs Overall 30% less than the combined heat and electricity cost. Consumers pay 45% less

than oil and 55% less than gas

Financial instruments Tax on fossil fuels is high while biomass is low levelling the playing field. 30% of heat

generated from waste. Recently deregulated to allow competition.

CO2 impact 40% less than traditional boilers

Fuel mix 33% biomass, 67% fossil fuels

Engineering

Fully integrated and flexible system to optimize hourly cost. New boiler commissioned in

2009 that burns 100% biomass. 4 x CHP plants joined, 3x incinerators, 50 small boilers

Central optimization of the system by network operator, Changing from steam to hot water

Cooling system being introduced.

Next steps Further emissions reductions through: Use of biomass, new wind turbines, heat network

modernised, geothermal, and incineration plant improvements. Removing plastic from

waste sent to incinerators.

Copenhagen – Historical context

Culture and history of Copenhagen have been key enablers for district heating roll-out.

• Copenhagen was gifted with cultural and housing-stock reasons for developing district heating schemes e.g.

housing blocks, rental culture. The reliance on fossil fuels was acutely brought into focus during the energy crisis

in the late 70’s.

• National fiscal and policy measures strengthen the economics for CHP. This was cascaded down to a local

government.

• State owned energy companies are created. This process has continued where Denmark is now energy sufficient

and now has a vision to become carbon neutral by 2025.

Restriction of consumer choice has also played an important role.

• There is a commonly accepted by the population, not least because it underpins the political tradition to create

incentives that would benefit the society and pave the way for collective energy systems

• Regulation began for new buildings requiring connection to district heating networks.

• This was then extended to the existing stock, e.g. banning electric heating and enforcing connection to the DH

system.

Transition has occurred over nearly 80 years through a progressive ratcheting of policy and fiscal measures.

• Key drivers in 1970s and 1980s have been energy prices and security of supply

• Transition to CO2-based targets through 1990s.

• Ultimate goal of carbon-neutrality continues to drive development of DH network and other renewables.

32

33

Hamburg

Game changers This is a coordinated approach with the city leveraging their local advantages and commerce

driving the climate change agenda

Enabling actions

• Progressive city wide regulations driven by the senate. The first plan was in place late

1997 and will be effectively replaced in 2012 by annual reporting

• 170 measures have been identified

• They have 6 topics; Mobility; Climate & Energy; Nature & City Greenery; Urban

Development & Living; Resource Protection & Economy; Sustainable Consumption

• Targets in place: By 2012 2 million tons per year as against 2007 (likely to be

achieved) By 2020, the aim is a 40 % reduction in CO2 emissions vis-à-vis 1990. 80%

by 2050

Success

It has built a reputation for climate change leadership; hosts an annual conference; two

partner cities of Chicago and Shanghai

Excellent public transport within 300m of any dwelling. Attracted 600 climate change

companies to the area.

Hamburg – Eco City is gathering momentum

Time scales Initiative started in the early 1990’s

Costs Unknown

Financial instruments €25m is in place plus they are leveraging this money using EU support

CO2 impact 40% reduction by 2020

Fuel mix Grid electricity plus local renewables and hydrogen infrastructure

Engineering

World’s largest fleet of hydrogen buses. More than 65 biogas plants with an output of

equivalent to 28 MW of installed generating capacity.

Next steps Continue progress against 6 topics; targeting 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

Stockholm - Hammarby Sjöstad

34

Game changers Political will, embedded culture, a failed Olympic bid and a rigorously applied a master plan

have made Hammarby Sjöstad a model eco town

Enabling actions

• Recognised the need for new housing and developed a detailed masterplan for an

entirely new suburb, rather than a patchwork of new developments.

• Using competing developers to drive low carbon innovation

• The failed 2004 bid for the greenest Olympics created momentum

• Mixed use including commercial and residential space reduces commuting demand.

• Acceptance of restriction of consumer choice e.g. compulsory connection to district

heating

• Complete integration of waste/energy/transport infrastructure at planning stage

• Planning applications in Sweden based on lifecycle cost analysis.

Success Thriving low-carbon community with high resident satisfaction. 80% of commuter journeys

made by public transport. CO2 impact significantly reduced compared with a ‘standard’

development.

Time scales Realisation in the early 1990s and Stockholm City Plan 99 strategy created in 1999

Costs £2bn estimated costs

Financial instruments Giving the developers a reduced price for the land on the basis that they would develop

housing of an environmental standard

CO2 impact 3.6t of CO2 per person per year (compared with c.10t per person in the UK).

Fuel mix 50% of energy (electricity and heat derived from waste)

Some houses 5% electrical energy from solar and 50% from solar thermal

Engineering

8,500 houses built out of a planned 11,000. External energy demand reduced to 60

kWh/sqm/year for new building (40% better than comparable developments).

Biogas buses and subsidised public transport

80% of houses are connected to district heating

Sewage used for heat and gas

Integrated and interconnected green spaces

Experimental housing using novel technologies (e.g vacuum-based waste disposal system)

Next steps The lessons learn will be applied to a new development called Royal Seaport

35

Stockholm - Hammarby Sjöstad

Stockholm

• Social changes – In the 1960 there was a movement of residents to live a greener more rural life. This was the ‘green wave’

out of the city.

– As these residents have aged, there is a return to the convenience of the city and accordingly the city is

becoming greener brought about partly by their return.

• Planning – There was a realisation that there was a need for new housing. A choice was made to include this as a

single large development within the city on a derelict brown field site

– By working with multiple developers to make the developments as green as possible; it created innovative

and risk taking solutions

– The master plan fully integrated the utilities to the development. This includes a novel vacuum waste

removal system

– Positive initiative for the public to use public transport

– Rejection of traditional zoning on the basis it would create a vibrant community

• The main financial mechanism is using the resale of the land at an attractive price to

developers with the conditions that the housing will meet environmental standards

• Following the success of Hammarby Sjöstad a second area is being developed called

Royal seaport. This is presently in planning.

• http://www.hammarbysjostad.se/miljo/pdf/CasPoldermans.pdf

• http://www.creatingourparadise.org/environment/news-tips/hammarby-bedzed-green-prototypes-one-planet-communities

• http://www.infra.kth.se/bba/HamSjostad.pdf

36

http://www.hammarbysjostad.se/miljo/pdf/CasPoldermans.pdf

http://www.hammarbysjostad.se/miljo/pdf/CasPoldermans.pdf

Abu Dhabi, UAE

37

Game changers Decline in Fossil Fuel Reserves, Availability of Solar Energy,

Government Desire for Low Carbon Economy

Enabling actions

• Predicted Oil and Gas reserves only allow for export of Fossil Fuel to 2040 at current

predicted usage.

• Most of the fossil fuel produced in the UAE is used to create energy and water for the

Emirates via energy inefficient Power and Desalination Plants.

• Solar Resource is very high in the UAE together with availability of empty land (desert)

near areas of habitation allows for large industrial scale solar renewable energy.

• Government has committed the city of Abu Dhabi and surrounding regions to become a

truly low carbon and sustainable economy as fast as possible.

• Government has also developed a masterplan for future developments so that

sustainability and energy use can be considered from the earliest stage of planning.

Success Masdar (under construction) designed to be a carbon neutral city.

Estidama – guiding principles and sustainability rating system for Middle East communities.

Time scales Current city aspiration for Masterplan is full build out is 2030 to 2040 timeline.

Costs Not Known, Current estimates are the proposed in the Billions of Dirhams

Financial instruments Government incentives and regulation, new energy & water tariffs for Emiratis and ex-pats

CO2 impact Marginal improvements leading at first to greater CO2 reduction as the buiding stock

improves and more renewable energy systems come on stream

Fuel mix High Renewable Scenario - 63% renewable, 1% Waste to Energy, 31% fossil fuel and 5%

Nuclear by 2030

Engineering MASDAR 10MW PV farm, SHAMS 1,2 & 3 300MW of Solar Farms in desert, planning of

spatial requirements in Abu Dhabi for district cooling, Sustainable Infrastructure Corridors

planning, Estidama - 2 ‘Pearl’ mandatory building code requirement for new buildings.

Next steps Smart Grid implementation in two years, locating regions in UAE for optimum solar farm

placement and the development of electrical and logistics infrastructure to those locations.

Abu Dhabi – Historical Context

Reduced Reliance on Fossil Fuel for Water and Energy

• Abu Dhabi has published fossil fuel reserves of about 30yrs. Its high energy demand means that it consumes a

significant proportion of its own production, reducing potential export revenues. In addition, due to the cultural and

social pressures electricity and water are provided at very low cost to the Emiratis and there is little incentive for

electricity and water demand reduction for the Ex-Pat communities. Also, through historic agreements a

proportion of gas is supplied from Qatar to Abu Dhabi for free.

The Abu Dhabi government is well aware that the current energy and water consumption is not sustainable and

when that the future is very bleak in terms of meeting their future energy and water requirements.

• For this reason, Abu Dhabi has made a concerted investment in changing the direction of their dependence on

fossil fuel and investing in a more sustainable infrastructure and systems while they still have the income from the

oil industry

Government Commitment

• UAE’s first Environment Day, February 1998, Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan publically committed the UAE to

a more Sustainable and Environmental path. From this statement, government agencies where allowed to push a

more Sustainable Agenda in their programming for Abu Dhabi and led to sustainable projects like Masdar.

• More particularly, the Urban Planning Council of Abu Dhabi, together with Abu Dhabi’s Major Utility Companies,

are actively collaborating to set aside the spatial requirements in the City of Abu Dhabi so that the future

sustainable infrastructure and district and regional power generating systems can be constructed.

38

Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, UAE

39

Game changers WWF name and shame UAE as world’s highest ecological footprint per capita

Embracing One Planet Living as a concept with Masdar City as a test bed

Enabling actions

• One Planet Commitments demand an integrated approach to urban metabolism

• Zero Carbon, Zero Waste, Sustainable Food, Water and Material Supply Chains

• Cost-benefit approach – save energy until it is cheaper to generate renewable power

• Finance from government to create a test-bed for sustainable living with the Masdar

Instritute of Science + Technology as its seed

• Development of Energy Design Guidelines to achieve at least 50% reduction in energy

demand

• Closed-loop approach to water management

Success First phase complete – Masdar Institute of Science + Technology uses 80% less

10 MW PV power plant, Solar down-beam tower deep geothermal wells all operational

Time scales Current city aspiration for Masterplan is full build out ic.2020

Costs Reported to be $22 billion funding, but city must achieve economic sustainability

Financial instruments Government investment in early phases, establishment of free trade zone, creation of

strategic partnerships with suppliers to minimise supply chain costs

CO2 impact Zero Carbon in operation

Fuel mix BIPV c.20% Utility Scale PV c30%, Concentrating Solar Power c.40% EfW c.10%

Engineering City-wide integrated ‘smart’ infrastructure proposals to manage energy, water, grey and

black water, irrigation, waste, transportation and logistics, cooling and dehumidification .

Service tunnel distribution strategy from central facilities located in land around city

Next steps Changes in technology and economic viability mean that infrastructure strategy is being

revisited to reduce capital costs and enable state utilities to adopt infrastructure

Masdar – Historical Context

A One Planet City – Zero Carbon, Zero Waste, Car Free

• WWF drew global attention to an unsustainable ‘ten planet’ lifestyle in the UAE. Profligate use of desalinated

water, air conditioning and gas guzzling vehicles was the norm. With the highest ecological footprint per capita in

the world Abu Dhabi launched the Masdar Initiative to develop new strategies for development and new

technologies that could over time enable Abu Dhabi to be a ‘One Planet’ emirate.

• Working with Foster + Partners and BioRegional – co-creators of the One Planet Living concept, a masterplan for

a new city of 50,000 residents was completed in 2007. This blueprint for a sustainable city of the future drew upon

lessons of traditional Arabic architecture and urban form to create a walkable microclimate, that reduced the need

for air conditioning by placing low-rise buildings close together to create a network of shaded streets, courtyards

and ‘green fingers’

Learning by Doing

• Work began on the design of the first phase – the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology at the end of 2007

and opened to its first students in September 2010. MIST’s construction programme ran ahead of city

infrastructure implementation and has provided a testing ground for new technologies.

• Lessons learnt at MIST have led to a re-evaluation of the viability of some of the emerging infrastructure

technologies that had formed part of the original masterplan infrastructure vision – such as solar thermal liquid

desiccant dehumidificiation, while technologies tested at MIST such as geothermal heat rejection are now being

applied across the city. The masterplan is a flexible framework that can adapt and change over time.

• Having spear-headed the emirates move towards ‘estidama’, Masdar now faces the challenges of aligning its

sustainability standards and infrastructure approach with the latest adopted infrastructure standards being applied

across the emirate. Without the introduction of Feed in Tariffs to support the implementation of renewable energy

initiatives Masdar faces cannot compete for tenants in a less buoyant real estate market

40

www.element-energy.co.uk

Inchon Free Economic Zone, South Korea

41

Game changers Creation of Holistic Sustainable Infrastructure with Urban Agriculture

Enabling actions

• Close integration of waste and energy infrastructure on the islands of KangHwa and

OngJin-Gun using the waste streams from the cities as raw material for manufacturing ,

fuel and fertiliser for agriculture.

• Use of building roofs and city centres as agriculture farmland to minimise transport ,

reduce food cost and promote security of food supply.

• Creation of a hydrogen /fuel cell infrastructure as an energy storage scheme to use the

full potential of the renewable energy supply.

• Creation of a municipal grey water system that feeds into the urban agriculture

schemes

• The creation of a large scale biomass power station that can utilise local produced bio-

crops, landfill gas and burnable waste .

Success This sustainable infrastructure masterplan was endorsed and accepted by the city of

Inchon as the model for the future development of these two islands in South Korea.

Time scales The infrastructure masterplan will be implemented in stages over the next 50 years

Costs Unknown at this time, but is expected to be more expensive than the standard

infrastructure installation, as a complete renewable and hydrogen infrastructure will be

established.

Financial instruments

The Energy Infrastructure is highly regulated and controlled by the government due to the

scarcity of energy resources in the Country. Financial instruments would be subsidies by

the South Korean Government and private enterprises for specific aspects of the

Infrastructure

CO2 impact Very High reduction in CO2 going towards. Long-term target of CO2-neutrality

Fuel mix 60% biomass, 30% renewable, 10% fossil fuel with possibility of energy export.

Engineering

Large Scale biomass CHP, hydrogen fuel and fuel cells as energy storage for renewable

energy, Wind, Tidal, PV Farms, Solar Thermal Farms , Bio-fuel feedstocks grown close to

the biomass plant. Municipal grey water systems for urban agriculture. Sustainable

sewage treatment creating fuel and fertiliser from waste.

Next steps Implementation of the Masterplan

Inchon Free Economic Zone – Historical Context

Geographical & Political Circumstances

• South Korea’s geographical situation is unique in that it is a high advanced technical society sitting next to one of

the poorest and reclusive countries in the world. The unresolved issue of being technically at war with North Korea

provides South Korea with the strong driver to create Sustainable Cities.

• South Korea understands that North Korea represents many opportunities as well as many dangers to their

economy and national security. The potential political collapse of the North Korean government and subsequent

reunification of the Korean peninsula will suddenly create a very large low skilled work force that will need jobs and

considerable investment.

• By creating Free Economic Zones and Manufacturing Centres close the North Korean border - low skilled jobs will

be created, allowing this work force to be more effectively utilised without damaging the South Korea’s Economy.

Also, if the infrastructure supporting these Centres is sustainable and does not significantly impacts the South

Korean’s energy infrastructure the transition and potential growth of the Unified Korean peninsula would be

assured.

Scarcity of Energy Resources

• South Korea also is totally dependent on external sources for their energy supplies. This has created a strong

driver to conserve and manage energy and water resources responsibly.

• Government regulations and building codes are very rigorous in defining minimum standards of heating and

cooling with mandatory connection into district heating and cooling networks if they are available. The planning

regulations also provide strong encouragement for private developments to invest in electrical demand

management techniques.

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