gamble on betfair and win

7/27/2019 Gamble on Betfair and Win

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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2006 All Rights Reserved 1


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Copyright 2006 by Kristian Jackman

All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works fromthis book in whole or in part. Please be aware that using any information in this book is at your own discretion. The author is in no way liable for any debts that you mayincur with your betting. Please note that gambling and the use of information relatedto gambling is illegal in some countries. The author holds no responsibility for anyreader using the information herein while it is against the local laws of the country

they reside in.



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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

Congratulations on purchasing a copy of 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'. Whatyou have in front of you is essentially a 'how to' guide for amassing a fortune throughhorse racing. The size of that fortune depends entirely upon you.

Some of you will read this manual, and think to yourself Oh that sounds like a greatway to make money but never act upon it. Whether because of fear or pure laziness,I don't know. Others will push their worries aside, take on board the principles itcontains and begin to create the wealth they deserve. I sincerely hope you are part of the second group.

Of course everyone who reads this book will have different levels of skill andknowledge within the broad area of horse racing gambling. Many of you will findyourself coming back to different parts of the book time and time again in order tofully understand and internalise the principles taught. So whilst this book has thestructure of a 'how to' guide, in that it contains step by step instructions, it should benoted that it's meant to be used as a reference.

You will no doubt find that you pick up some parts of the book almost straight awaywhilst other parts require several readings. This is perfectly natural and the key is togo at your own pace. It's no good hitting the exchanges before you have mastered the

art of laying as that is a sure fire way to lose money. Of course you will need toapply the principles in this book in real-life examples on the exchanges before youcan truly understand and internalise them.

This is why I strongly recommend that you begin by paper trading your selectionsrather than risking money on them straight away. By doing this you will becomecomfortable with laying without losing any real money.

Due to the different experience levels of all the readers I have decided to structure

this book into 5 parts. The first is more a guide to gambling in general and will beuseful to the complete 'newbies' out there. In this section I will explain all the basicsof gambling including odds and percentages and the notion of value.

In the second part of the book I go on to discuss laying horses in more detail. Alsoincluded is a basic user guide of Betfair to help you on your way.

In the third part I will show you how to study race cards and form with particular reference to the Racing Post website.

The fourth part is the system itself. It will teach you how to spot losing favourites in



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as little as half an hour a day.

In the fifth and final part I offer further tactics to enhance your profits including professional staking and bank management strategies.



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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

Part 1: The Basics of Gambling .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 2: Understanding Odds and Percentages ................................................................................................................................. 7

Chapter 3: The Notion of Value ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Part 2: The Basics of Laying ............................................................................................................................................................................. 15Chapter 4: What is Laying? ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Chapter 5: How to use a Betting Exchange ................................................................................................................................................... 18

Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post Website ...................................................................................................... 22

Chapter 6: Understanding the Race Card .......................................................................................................................................................... 23Chapter 7: Understanding the Postdata table ............................................................................................................................................... 25

Chapter 8: Studying a Horse's Racing History .......................................................................................................................................... 27

Part 4: How to Pick a Losing Horse .................................................................................................................................................. 29Chapter 9: Laying Horses Flat Racing ............................................................................................................................................................ 30

Chapter 10: Step 1 Primary Warning Signs Flat Racing ............................................................................................... 32

Chapter 11: Step 2 Evaluating the Opposition .................................................................................................................................... 36

Chapter 12: Step 3 Secondary Warning Signs Flat Racing ....................................................................................... 37

Chapter 13: Step 4 Bringing It All Together .......................................................................................................................................... 42

Chapter 14: Example 1 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44

Chapter 15: Example 2 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50

Chapter 16: Laying Horses National Hunt (Jump) Racing ............................................................................................... 56

Chapter 17: Step 1 Primary Warning Signs Jump Racing ........................................................................................... 57

Chapter 18: Step 2 Evaluating the Opposition .................................................................................................................................... 62

Chapter 19: Step 3 Secondary Warning Signs Jump Racing ................................................................................... 63

Chapter 20: Step 4 Bringing It All Together .......................................................................................................................................... 66

Chapter 21: Example 3 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68

Part 5: Maximising Profits .................................................................................................................................................................................... 75Chapter 22: Laying at the Right Price .................................................................................................................................................................... 76

Chapter 23: Using a Betting Bank ............................................................................................................................................................................... 77

Chapter 24: Final Thoughts .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78



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PART ONE: THE BASICS OFGAMBLING

This part is essentially for the newbies out there. In this section I will quickly gothrough the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the importance of value in betting.

Of course even if you have experience with gambling you still may find some usefulinformation here, and I would advise everyone to at least skim read this part.



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CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS ANDPERCENTAGES

Odds are referred to as the "price" for a horse in a race. The bookmakers set the prices according to what they believe is the horse's chance of winning. The morelikely they think a horse is to win, the "shorter" the horse's price will be. That is tosay the smaller the return will be for a punter who backs the horse to win.

For example if a horse is priced at 4/1 then the bookie is saying that if that exact racewas run 5 times that horse would win it once. Or to put it another way the horse has a20% chance of winning.

There are three different ways odds can be presented. Depending on which marketthe bookmaker targets. Odds are presented by either the British, European or American standard.

British - Fractional Odds

The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g 5/1 or "Five toOne". When the first figure is higher than the second it is called "odds against". Theamount won will be greater than the original stake. For example if the odds offeredwere 5/1 then for every 1 staked you would win 5.

When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called "odds on" and the amountof winnings will be smaller than the stake. For example if the odds offered were 4/6then for every 6 staked you would win 4.

Below is an example of an on-line race card using British Odds;



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European - Decimal Odds

Unlike the British fractions the European system deals in decimals. The figure quotedis the return a punter receives (including the stake) based on a bet of 1 unit. Totransfer from British odds to European odds simply divide the first number by thesecond number and add 1.

So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 1 + 1 = 6)

and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 6 + 1 = 1.67)

The betting exchanges all use the European odds system so it is something you aregoing to have to learn to recognise.

Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds;



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American Odds

The American system is different again and is the most complicated due to odds being either positive or negative. The system is based on evens (1/1) beingexpressed as 100.00.

If an event is odds on then the figure is preceded by a minus - and represents theamount you have to stake in order to win 100 units. If an event has odds greater thanevens then it is a positive figure and represents the amount you win for every 100units staked.

Don't worry if you don't understand this completely. We will not be dealing inAmerican odds in any way.

Below is an example of an on-line race card using American Odds;



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Table of Odds and Percentages.

UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA % UK EUR USA %

2/7 1.29 -350 77.80 9/5 2.80 180 35.71 14/1 15.00 1400 6.67

3/10 1.30 -330 76.70 15/8 2.87 187 34.78 16/1 17.00 1600 5.88

1/3 1.33 -300 75.00 19/10 2.90 190 34.48 18/1 19.00 1800 5.26

4/11 1.36 -275 73.33 2/1 3.00 200 33.33 20/1 21.00 2000 4.76

2/5 1.40 -250 71.43 21/10 3.10 210 32.26 22/1 23.00 2200 4.35

4/9 1.44 -225 69.23 11/5 3.20 220 31.25 25/1 26.00 2500 3.85

1/2 1.50 -200 66.67 9/4 3.25 225 30.77 28/1 29.00 2800 3.45

8/15 1.53 -190 65.50 23/10 3.30 230 30.30 33/1 34.00 3300 2.94

4/7 1.57 -150 63.64 12/5 3.40 240 29.41 40/1 41.00 4000 2.44

8/13 1.65 -161 61.90 5/2 3.50 250 28.57 50/1 51.00 5000 1.96

2/3 1.67 -150 60.00 13/5 3.60 260 27.78 66/1 67.00 6600 1.49

8/11 1.73 -137 57.89 27/10 3.70 270 27.03 80/1 81.00 8000 1.23

4/5 1.80 -125 55.56 11/4 3.75 275 26.67 100/1 101.00 1000 0.99

5/6 1.83 -120 54.55 14/5 3.80 280 26.32

9/10 1.90 -111 52.63 3/1 4.00 300 25.00

10/11 1.91 -110 52.38 10/3 4.33 333 23.08

1/1 2.00 100 50.00 7/2 4.50 350 22.2221/20 2.05 105 48.78 4/1 5.00 400 20.00

11/10 2.10 110 47.62 9/2 5.50 450 18.18

10/9 2.11 111 47.37 5/1 6.00 500 16.67

6/5 2.20 120 45.45 11/2 6.50 550 15.38

5/4 2.25 125 44.44 6/1 7.00 600 14.29

13/10 2.30 130 43.48 13/2 7.50 650 13.33

27/20 2.35 135 42.55 7/1 8.00 700 12.5011/8 2.37 137 42.11 15/8 8.50 750 11.76

7/5 2.40 140 41.67 8/1 9.00 800 11.11

3/2 2.50 150 40.00 17/2 9.50 850 10.53

8/5 2.60 160 38.46 9/1 10.00 900 10.00

13/8 2.62 162 38.10 10/1 11.00 1000 9.09

17/10 2.70 170 37.04 11/1 12.00 1100 8.33

7/4 2.75 175 36.36 12/1 13.00 1200 7.69



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CHAPTER 3: THE NOTION OF VALUE

The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of gambling by almosteveryone bar the professionals. It is the very reason that bookmakers are able to

profit on every horse in every race.

Let me explain. If a horse's real chance of winning is 9/1 then it means that if thathorse was allowed to run that exact same race ten times it would win once. The other nine times it would lose.

If you put 1 on the horse for each of those ten races you would invest 10 in total.For the one race that the horse won you would receive 10 back from the bookmakers(including 9 profit and the 1 stake returned). So as you can see in the long run youwould break even.

Now imagine that same horse, with it's 9/1 chance of winning, was priced at 15/1 bya bookmaker.

Now for those ten races your investment would still be 10. But your return on thatone winning race would now be 16 (including 15 profit and the 1 stake returned).

This means you will have made 6 pure profit or more impressively a 60% return on

investment.

Of course the example above is very simplistic but the model work. Having value inyour profits is the only way to reap long term profits.

Now imagine how many times a bookmaker will make a mistake on one of its prices.Think of the resources available to Ladbrokes for example. They have teams of experts studying the form of every horse in every race, not to mention the computer

programs that can crunch years of data in seconds. And all pitted against you the

punter. Now do you see how hard it is to beat the bookmaker? This is exactly thereason why so few people can earn a living from gambling.

Furthermore the majority of people like to bet on favourites because they believe thiswill give them a better strike rate hence better profits. But guess what? Thefavourites offer the worst value out of every horse in the field.

Let me explain. When pricing up horses the bookmakers included an over round onevery horse so that each one represents value for them. To put it another way the

bookmaker wants to be certain that of making a profit in every race. It's up to the punter to find a horse that the bookie has priced up wrongly and which offers value.



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Very tough to do.

Bookmakers work in percentages. Now if the percentage of all the runners in anygiven race put together is below 100% then theoretically we can back every horse inthat race and be guaranteed a profit. Of course this never happens.

Below is a screen print of a recent race at Leicester;

As you can see the total starting price is 115%. Which means if we backed everyhorse in the race the bookmaker is guaranteed a 15% profit.

That said some horses in that race will have been value bets. If we look at the oddswe can see that the race involved a short priced favourite. Now this favourite didn'teven get a place so we can assume it wasn't a good favourite at all. The reason it wasa short price was because clueless punters put money on it driving its price down.

This is the key point - its when the punters start putting money on horses that thevalue a horse offers changes the most .

As I said before most people will back the favourite. The more money that gets puton a certain horse the lower its odds will go. Simple supply and demand. As the

price gets shorter more and more people put money on it because it is such a 'surething', and the price just gets lower and lower. It's a vicious circle that creates less

value for the punters and more profits for the bookmakers.



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However since the advent of the betting exchanges people have been able to copy the bookmakers and begin making bets with value already built in. In fact on theexchanges you have advantages over the bookmaker.

You do not have to lay every horse in every race of the day. You get to hand pick the

horses you lay which means you effectively just pick the cream of the bookmakers business to focus on.

The bookies have done the hard work for you. You will use my system to pick thefavourites with the least chance of winning. Then you simply watch the clueless

punters drive the prices down which in turn gives you more and more value in your bets.

With this strategy you are guaranteed value in all your bets and as such are

guaranteed long term profits.In the next section I will discuss the process of laying in more detail.



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PART TWO: THE BASICS OFLAYING

In this section I will explain the concept of laying in more detail. To lay horses youneed to use a betting exchange and so I have included a short guide to Betfair, whichis the exchange you will most likely be using.



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almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.

FREE 20 If you would like 20 for free, simply sign up to Betfair usingthe following link and type in this code L6UKEEJEE in the 'Refer and Earn'box. Your account will then be credited with 20.

http://www.betfair.com

http://www.betdaq.com/http://www.betsson.com/http://www.backandlay.com/http://www.ibetx.com/http://www.parbet.com/http://www.betfair.com/


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CHAPTER 5: HOW TO USE A BETTINGEXCHANGE

The follow instructions are designed to help you place lay bets using a bettingexchange. The user guide uses Betfair as an example as it is the exchange you aremost likely to use. If you haven't registered you will need to click on the 'Join Now'

button and fill in your details. If you have simply fill in your username and passwordand click 'Login'.

The left hand side of the front page will look likethis, and is a list of all the different sports covered.

Click on 'Horse Racing Todays Card' for a list of all the races coming up on that day.

Of course if you are laying the night before therace you will click on 'Horse Racing'



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The list of sporting options will change toshow a list of horse races for the day,happening all over the world, sorted bytime

Simply scroll down and from the list of races click on the race you are laying in.Select the race by Time and Course.

Do not select the race meeting to place aswe are only betting on the horse not towin.



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The race meeting will come up on the screen and will look confusing at first but it isquite straight forward.

To the left we have the name of the horse in bold and the jockey's name underneath.The first three columns of numbers after the horses' names show the odds for backingthe horse to win, with the best odds in the blue squares.

The decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount availableto bet with. Basically this means someone else has laid the horse at this price with

the amount of money shown below. They are waiting for someone to accept their offer.

Ignore these as we are not backing the horses.

The second set of three columns show the odds for the horses losing (i.e. lay bets).Again the best odds are highlighted in the pink squares. As before the decimalfigures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with.Basically this means someone else is requesting an opportunity to bet a certain

amount at their preferred odds and is waiting for an offer to lay at that price.



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Click on the best odds (in the pink square) for the horse you have selected to lay. Theright hand side of the website will now change, showing the horse's name, the oddsselected and asking for the backers stake as follows:

You can change the odds to whatever price you are comfortable offering Type in theamount you want to lay the horse for in the 'Backer's Stake' box and Betfair willautomatically work out your liability (i.e. The amount you stand to lose if the horsewins). For advice on what odds to set and the amount to stake please see the chapters'Laying at the Right Price' and 'Using a Betting Bank' later in this manual.

Once you have done that click on submit in the bottom right hand corner of the page.You will then be asked to confirm your bet. Click on yes if you are happy with it.

The screen will now change to show whether or not your bet has been matched. If the bet has been matched, then the bet is placed and you only have to wait for theresults.

If the bet is unmatched you have several options:

You may wait to see if someone else comes along who is prepared to accepts theodds you have specified.

You can change the odds in order to match a backer who is offering different odds.

Or you can cancel the bet.

It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. This is where some of your stakehas been matched with a backer, but some has not.

Using Betfair is relatively easy once you get used to it. If you are still unsure of anything then Betfair offers comprehensive online help. For an easy to follow user guide simply go to the Betfair website, click on the help menu and then on the view

our demo button.



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CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS

Once you enter the main site you will need to register to get access to the usefulinformation. This is an easy process and should only take a minute or two.

To see the race cards simply click on the relevant date in the top left hand corner of the screen. Then on the right hand side towards the bottom of the screen you can

pick the meeting you want to browse through.

Once you have done that and clicked on a specific race you will be presented with ascreen similar to the one below.

1.

3.

4.

6.

10.

8.5.

7.

12.

11.

9.

2.

13.

1. This box contains details about the race itself. In the centre of the box is thetitle of the race, followed by the group class and the age limit of the horseseligible to run. Underneath the title are the details of the prize money available

for the race. On the left hand side of this box are the time of the race and the



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CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THEPOSTDATA TABLE

Underneath the card there is the Postdata table. This is a very useful tool for quicklychecking the ability of a horse.

1.

5. 11.

6.

7.

3.

2.

10.4.

12.

8.

9.

1. The Racing Post's own rating for each horse.

2. Topspeed The Racing Post's own assessment of each individual horse's racespeed.

3. Official rating The official handicapper's rating of each individual horse'srace speed.

4. The name of the horse.

5. The Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form.One tick = in formTwo ticks = in very good form? = form open to questionX =out of form- = no runners last 14 days

6. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability on the relevant going.



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CHAPTER 10: STEP 1 PRIMARY WARNINGSIGNS FLAT RACING

Now I am going to take you through the essential details to look at when deciding

which horse to lay. The five factors below are the primary variables you will need toassess the favourite on. We need our horse to have a question mark concerning it'sability on at least one of these factors.

PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS

GOING

The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. Thedescriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm.The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equallywell on any type of going but many have a preference.What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going

before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going.

This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and beingsoundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.

BONUS TIP The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well knownthat favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we areto lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be.

DISTANCE

Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. Somehorses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races.As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance.

You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is steppingup in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can bequestioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant.Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you



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might have a horse with excellent form over 1 mile but has had a couple of dodgyruns over 12 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible layingopportunity.

BONUS TIP Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses

are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its mostrecent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 1.5furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't beclassed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay.

CLASS

As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of theentrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racingagainst better opposition than it has before.

What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions racesimply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself upagainst horses who have also won their own maidens.

As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a classcategory depending on the prize money available.

The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:

FLAT CLASS SYSTEM

Cls 1

Cls 2

Group 1..........................Group 2..........................

Group 3..........................Listed incl 96-110hcps..Heritage open hcps........nurseries.........................86-110............................

3yo+200k 90k

50k 28k 45k -18k

2yo165k 70k

40k 23.5k -20k 13k

Cls 3Cls 4

Cls 5Cls 6Cls 7

76-95.....66-85.....

56-75.....46-65.....0-50.......

3yo+12.5k 8.5k

5k 3.5k incl regional bands A-D

2yo11k 7k

5k 3.5k 2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize moneyavailable; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time.



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to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. Oneway to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it iscarrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse.

Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in therace. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out.

BONUS TIP We do not lay favourites with 7+lbs penalty on the AW tracks as theystatistically tend to run well.

TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE

This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying afavourite rather than being a factor in our favour.

This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we shouldnot lay.

Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for eachcourse. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it'shorses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closestto the stable.

When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it animmediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions.

Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriouslytemperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance.

I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In factsometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if thetrainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the raceis only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.



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CHAPTER 11: STEP 2 EVALUATING THEOPPOSITION

After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potentialfavourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What youare looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat thefavourite.

To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite.

Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the

trap of spending hours reading form.

We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite.Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races aswell as how many lengths it won or lost by.

One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite.

The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certainclass. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5events.

Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses inthe race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite.

The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practicalexamples I will take you through in a moment.



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CHAPTER 13: STEP 4 BRINGING IT ALLTOGETHER

Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay.

I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way.

I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have.

Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total themup. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box.

However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture.

For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors.

This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more andmore horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.



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This represents the only real primary warning sign for the favourite although we cansee that this isn't really a horse of great ability as it's previous best run was a 4 th place.It's seems this horse is not really any great shakes in class 5 events.

Furthermore the horse will be carrying 3lb more than it ever has before. Whilst thisis not enough to count as a warning sign it certainly puts more doubt in the ability of the horse to win the race.

Finally looking at the trainer's course-win percentage below we can see that thefavourite's trainer, P F I Cole has a win percentage of 9%. This is not enough to scareus from laying this horse.



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CHAPTER 16: LAYING HORSES NATIONALHUNT (JUMP) RACING

In National Hunt racing the horses are made to jump a number of obstaclesthroughout the course. The courses are at least 2 miles (16 furlongs) long and thehorses are started from a tape barrier. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't rununtil they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Jump racing goes on all year round but its mainseason runs from November until the end of April.

There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers.

Steeplechases (Chases) - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences' whichvary in size. These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The Grand

National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U.K.

Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring about3 feet 1 inch in height.

Another type of jump race is Point to Point Races - These races are run over fenceson designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn. This is

basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdlesand fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races.

In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races.

Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the field.

Maidens As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before.Novices These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When ahorse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season but

it has to carry a weight penalty.Bumpers Also called National Hunt Flat Races. These are special flat races for young jump horses.

Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. WEDO NOT LAY ANY HORSES IN THESE RACES. This is because the horsesinvolved are always mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying thefavourite.



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JUMP CLASS SYSTEM

Cls 1

Cls 2

Cls 3Cls 4Cls 5Cls 6

Grade 1Grade 2 incl limited hcpsGrade 3 open hcpsListedOpen hcps0-140+0-115/1350-100/1150-85/95HuntCh & NHF

Chase100k 50k 50k 25k 23k 20k 10k 5.5-10k 3.5-5.5k 1.6 3.5k

NovChs50k 32k

20k

Hurdle75k 40k 45k 22k 18k 14k 8k 4.5-8k 3.2-4.5k

NovHur40k 28k

18k

NHFlat25k 20k

15k 18k 14k 8k 4.5-8k 3.2-4.5k 2.5-3.2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize moneyavailable; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst.

We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horseswhich have had bad results in a certain class.

FIRST TIME HURDLER

If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying.

Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for the first time.

Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to it's first hurdle race. Evenif the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like ahurdles race before.

Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections.Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically getsfavouritism.

BONUS TIP First time hurdlers will be competing in novice hurdle events. Theseare great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how ahorse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horseswho often bring each other down over the obstacles.



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Jump Racing

PRIMARY WARNING

SIGNS

Horse 1 Horse 2 Horse 3 Horse 4

GOING

DISTANCE

CLASS

1ST TIMEHURDLER

1ST TIMECHASER

WEIGHT

TRAINER

OPPOSITION

HOW MANYRIVALS

SECONDARY WARNING

SIGNS DAYS SINCE

LAST RUN

DRAW

FIELD SIZE

LTO WINNER?

JOCKEY

TOPSPEED

AGE OF HORSEFORM

TOTAL



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CHAPTER 22: LAYING AT THE RIGHT PRICE

We have discussed how to find horses to lay now we must focus on what price to layat. If we are too generous with our odds we will be destroying any value we have inthe bets.

It is best to lay the horse as close to the race start as possible. Around 90% of betsare place in the liveshow period before a race. This takes place around 10 minutes

before the race starts. As we are laying the favourite we are almost guaranteed thatour horses' price will drift in the most.

However sometimes we might find that our horse's price drifts out so much that it isno longer the favourite. In this instance the other punters have obviously realised,like we did, that there are doubts over it's ability. In this circumstance it really is upto you how to proceed. If you're convinced the horse won't win you might still wantto lay it or the price might drift so far out that you don't want to take a risk.

I have a rule where I don't lay any horse over 5.00 on the exchanges. I feel the risk isnot worth the payout if it wins. There are some people who lay up to 30.00 andabove but I certainly wouldn't recommend this. These people presume that thesehorses have no chance of winning and that it is low risk. But it only takes one winner every thirty bets to completely wipe out your profit and we all know big priced

winners happen now and again.

If I was you I would set a maximum price and stick to it at all costs. It will be better for you profits in the long run.

Of course some of you will not be able to lay just before the race due to other commitments. You will have to set a price before hand. To get an idea what odds togive you should use the Racing Post's tissue prices as a guide. In addition you cancheck and see what prices other punters are giving on Betfair.



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gamble on betfair and win

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