gabriele barbaresco, mediobanca research area · cumulative flows, 2003-11 and % of stock at...
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Italian medium-sized enterprises, 2002-11 Gabriele Barbaresco, Mediobanca Research Area
Rome, 7 November 2013
2
Contents
1. Developments in MSEs' universe
2. Manufacturing presence outside Italy: where and how
3. Locations, trades and performances
4. MSEs vs large companies: when a featherweight takes on a heavyweight
5. MSEs and tax issues
Section 1
Developments in MSEs’ universe
4
Demographic trends in the 2002-11 ten-year period
Developments in MSEs' universe Section 1
Cumulative flows, 2003-11 and % of stock at end-2002
Threshold
effect
Acquisition minus loss of
Italian ownership
New incorporations less
liquidations and mergers
plus or minus other changes
Total
New entries 3472 37 125 3634
Exits 3268 129 670 4067
Balance +204 -92 -545 -433
Balance as % vs 2002 5.1 -2.3 -13.5 -10.7
5
5.1 2.4 4.5
9.9 14.2
-2.3 -2.8 -2.7 -0.2 -0.8
-13.5 -12.3 -12.5 -16.9 -19.3
Italy NW NE NEC Southern Italy, Sicily and Sardinia
Threshold effect Acquisition minus loss of Italian ownership New incorporations - liquidations and mergers + / - other changes
Different things have happened in different geographical areas …
Developments in MSEs' universe Section 1
% of stock at end-2002
-10.7% -12.7% -10.7% -7.2% -5.9%
6
9.7
-18.4
11.4
23.9
14.2 16.9 23.3
-3.3
-1.1
-3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -1.1
-11.6
-12.5
-18.0 -12.6 -13.8 -19.1 16.7
Food and drink P&HG Paper and printing
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Mechanical engineering
Iron and steel Other sectors
Threshold effect Acquisition minus loss of Italian ownership New incorporations - liquidations and mergers +/- other changes
… and in different sectors
Developments in MSEs' universe Section 1
% of stock at end-2002
-5.2% -32.0% -9.9% -2.6% -3.3% -6.6% 8.7%
7
New additions have done well
Developments in MSEs' universe Section 1
“Floating” and “permanent” shares of MSE universe, and years of presence
2.4 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.6 8.5 8.4 7.1 9.0
43.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Firms with non-consecutive years Firms with consecutive years % of firms for the year
Years
1736 1736 1736 1736 1736 1736 1736 1736 1736 1736
2368 2339 2420 2477 2744 2940 2355
1594 1803 1930
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Permanent set Floating set
Section 2
Manufacturing presence outside Italy: where and how
9
-436
265
154 16
Italian manufacturing firms Non-Italian manufacturing firms
Italian services companies Non-Italian services companies
Balance: -1
Structure of formal company groupings
Manufacturing presence outside Italy: where and how Section 2
Composition by business and location of companies controlled by MSEs and their balance, 2002-11
68.4% 61.1%
31.6% 38.9%
2002 2011
Italian manufacturing firms Italian services companies
9.8% 23.5%
90.2% 76.5%
2002 2011
Non-italian manufacturing firms Non-italian services companies
51.7% 48.3%
48.3% 51.7%
2002 2011
Manufacturing firms Services companies
10
Foreign companies increase but now speaking different languages
Manufacturing presence outside Italy: where and how Section 2
Manufacturing subsidiaries: 2011 percentages and changes vs 2002: overview of main host countries
Country 2002 Country 2011
As % of total non-domestic subsidiaries
France 12.7 Cina 12.8
Poland 10.6 France 10.3
Romania 8.5 Romania 9.8
Germany 7.7 USA 7.1
Brazil 6.3 Spain 4.9
Hungary 6.3 Germany 4.7
Slovenia 4.9 UK 4.4
Spain 4.9 Poland 4.2
Total, Top 8 61.9 58.2
55.1
8.1 6.6
12.8
5.4
12.0
-15.3
3.2
-3.3
11.4
2.6 1.4
European Union
North America
South America
China Asia & Mid. East (excl.
China)
Rest of world
2011 as % Diff. 2002-2011 in p.p.
Section 3
Locations, trades and performances
12
Regional capability to attract MSEs
Locations, trades and performances Section 3
Normalized indexes derived from equal weighted averages of 7 indicators (z-scores). Brackets show change in position vs 2002
(-3) (+1) (-1) (+3)
(-1) (+1)
(-1) (+1)
(-2) (+1)
(-1) (-1)
(+3)
13
60.5
-3.4
60.0
-1.6
65.0
-5.4
62.4
-2.0
40.8 13.6 13.0 5.5 5.4 4.6 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 0.5
4.2
1.7 1.3 0.9 -0.3
-1.0
-3.0
0.4 -0.8
0.1
-3.1
-0.4
Winners and losers: sectors …
Locations, trades and performances Section 3
MSE sectors: percentage of 2011 VA (in blue) and change 2011 vs 2002 in p.p. (in red)
*) Sectors comprised in Personal and household goods
Personal and household goods(P&HG) Made in Italy
19.5
-8.7
19.2
-8.3
20.8
-11.8
23.3
-6.6
14
… and geographical areas
Locations, trades and performances Section 3
Sector percentage composition of 2011 sales and margins by geographical macro-area compared
37.0 15.6 14.9
10.6
5.0 14.6 2.3
33.1 11.2
23.1
4.1
3.9 22.1 2.5
26.6 9.9
12.4
5.6
6.8 33.9 4.8
25.4 14.2 33.8
3.7 7.1
14.3 1.5
Mechanical engineering
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Food and drink Iron and steel Paper and printing
P&HG Others
NW Italy NE Italy NEC Italy Central & southern Italy, Sicily & Sardinia
24.0
19.8 19.8
16.7
8.8 6.9 6.7
5.3 5.9 3.5 3.2 2.7
NW Italy NE Italy NEC Italy Central & southern Italy, Sicily & Sardinia
EBIT/VA Roi Roe
15
Areas have differing capabilities to generate (and burn) wealth
Locations, trades and performances Section 3
Index no. of difference between ROI net of taxes and WACC (MSE universe)
100.0 99.3 98.9 99.3
99.7
100.8 100.8 99.9
100.4 101.2
99.3 98.8 98.9 98.9 99.3
98.3
97.1 97.0 96.7
98.6
97.5 96.8
96.0
95.0
92.9
91.4
90.2
89.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NW Italy NEC Italy Central & southern Italy, Sicily & Sardinia
16
Southern Italy: the hypothetical sacrifice made by stakeholders
Locations, trades and performances Section 3
Index no. of difference between ROI net of taxes and WACC (MSE universe)
100.0 100.0 100.1
100.5 100.8
101.5
101.1
100.7 100.4
100.1
100.3
100.9
101.8
102.8
103.1
101.6
100.7 100.5
100.0
99.9 100.0
100.5 100.8
100.9
100.1
99.7 99.8 99.8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
80% reduction in interest expenses 70% reduction in tax rate 75% reduction in ERP
Section 4
MSEs vs large companies: when a featherweight takes on a heavyweight
18
Large firms’ greater specialization raises hopes ...
MSEs vs large companies: when a featherweight takes on a heavyweight Section 4
Percentage share of 2011 sales: certain sectors and technology content (OECD classification)
47.1 30.4
33.4 64.6
19.5 5.0
30.8
69.7
69.2
30.3
MSEs Larger firms
Others Mechanical engineering P&HG High and medium-high tech. Low and medium-low tech.
19
… but figures are disappointing
MSEs vs large companies: when a featherweight takes on a heavyweight Section 4
Index no. of difference between ROI net of taxes and WACC
99.8 99.8
100.3 100.8
101.9 101.9
101.2 101.4 101.3
100.0
98.3
97.7
96.8
97.7
99.4
98.7
97.0 96.7
95.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MSEs (closed set) Larger firms
20
MSEs: share always above 100, even in 2012
MSEs vs large companies: when a featherweight takes on a heavyweight Section 4
Index no. of MSEs deflated with index nos. of large firms
100.0
102.1 101.8
98.8 99.1
102.7
104.8 105.3
107.3
109.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales
100.0
105.3
109.0
103.7
99.7
101.3 101.7 100.9
102.3
105.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exports
100.0 100.6 98.8 98.3
104.6
111.9 113.8
117.7
122.5
129.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Domestic sales
100.0
103.3
104.1 104.9
106.l8
107.7 108.3
107.7
106.0
107.4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Employment
Section 5
MSEs and tax issues
22
The strange taxation of Italian MSEs …
Breakdown of MSEs into six categories based on cost of labour and effects on taxation
MSEs and tax issues Section 5
35.1 54.7
66.4 76.3 82.1 88.8 1.4
2.5 3.9
5.5 6.4
6.4 63.5 42.8 29.7 18.2 11.5 4.8
Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI
Labour costs as % of VA Interest expense as % of VA Profits as % of VA
17.4 23.3 30.5 39.2
50.1 63.5
82.6 76.7 69.5 60.8 49.9 36.5
31.1 36.4 40.9
46.3
61.8
98.1
Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI
IRES (% of tax) IRAP (% of tax) Tax rate (%)
205
283
354
391
413
443 31.6
22.8
17.1
12.5
9.6
6.4
Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI
No. of MSEs % share of taxes
23
… with distortion effects on sector and geography
MSEs and tax issues Section 5
Shares belonging to classes I to III and ROE (red line)
43.5 42.8 39.7
35.3 34.9 32.2
6.2
8.8
4.1
2.7 0.2
1.7
Mechanical engineering
Chemicals and pharmaceuticals
Food and drink Iron and steel P&HG Paper and printing
41.7 40.7
39.8
34.2 3.5
5.9
3.2
2.7
NE Italy NW Italy NEC Italy Central & southern Italy, Sicily & Sardinia
24
Can we dream of an Italian Mittelstand?
Percentage of firms by category of financial solidity and average PD expressed as index no. Germany = 100
Source: compiled by R&S based on R&S-Unioncamere scoring model
MSEs and tax issues Section 5
76.3
69.0 68.6
56.6
78.0
19.3
26.4 25.0
35.3
18.2
4.4 4.6 6.4 8.1 3.9
100.0
108.4
121.1
184.0
92.6
Germany France Spain Italy Italy
Investment grade Intermediate Distressed
25
Mediobanca Research Area
Foro Buonaparte 10, Milan, Italy
www.mbres.it