g325 regional costs of climate‐related hazards for the new...
TRANSCRIPT
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U.S. GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL G325
Regional Costs of Climate‐Related Hazards for the New York State Building SectorUSGBCNYU_RCCRH
Nicholas B. RajkovichApril 23, 2019
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LearningObjectives
At the end of the this course, participants will be able to:1. Describe what climate hazards may affect NYS’s buildings and its occupants,
user and any others in the future.2. Assess inherent vulnerabilities of NYS’s buildings through analysis of
historical property damage by region due to climate hazard events.3. Understand how the adaptive capacity of each region’s building sector
might affect its ability to prepare for, or recover from future hazard events to use during project planning and design.
4. Identify gaps in knowledge that must be bridged in order to more effectively prepare the state’s building sector for climate change.
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Presentation prepared by:Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Elizabeth K. Gilman, Hope Forgus, and Thomas J. Mulligan
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ap.buffalo.edu/adapting-buildings
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ap.buffalo.edu/adapting-buildings
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Data Source: FEMA HAZUS MH
New York State’s Building Stock by the Numbers
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Data Source: FEMA HAZUS MH
New York State’s Building Stock by the Numbers
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Data Source: FEMA HAZUS MH
New York State’s Building Stock by the Numbers
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Data Source: FEMA HAZUS MH
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NYS SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGSQUARE FOOTAGE
Data Source: FEMA Presidential Disaster Declaration Database
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NYS COMMERCIAL BUILDING SQUARE FOOTAGE
Data Source: FEMA Presidential Disaster Declaration Database
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NYS INDUSTRIAL BUILDING SQUARE FOOTAGE
Data Source: FEMA Presidential Disaster Declaration Database
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NYS AGRICULTURAL BUILDING SQUARE FOOTAGE
Data Source: FEMA Presidential Disaster Declaration Database
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NYS BUILDING VALUE DENSITY
Data Source: FEMA Presidential Disaster Declaration Database
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Climate Hazards
Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA
Total State-wide Estimated Building Damage (2014 USD)
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Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA
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Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA
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Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA
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Key Findings from Historical Cost Data Analysis• Hurricanes have been the most destructive.
• Hurricanes impact more than just New York City and Long Island.
• Flooding events are widespread, frequent, and costly in NYS.
• NYC and Long Island sustained the most building damage but did not sustain the most damage per total building value or per capita.
• Winter storms are not widespread, but they cause significant damage in the Western New York/Great Lakes Plain Region.
• Decentralized regions may be impacted more than other regions.
• The Tug Hill Plateau Region has had the lowest exposure to climate hazards.
Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
Region One | Western New York/Great Lakes Plain
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Region Two | Catskill Mountains & West Hudson River Valley
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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Region Three | Southern Tier
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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Region Four | New York City and Long Island
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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Region Five | East Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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Region Six | Tug Hill Plateau
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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Region Seven | Adirondack Mountains
Data Source: SHELDUS, FEMA, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
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What is Adaptive Capacity?Defined as “the ability of a system to adjust to actual or expected climate stresses, or to cope with the consequences.” Also the actions that build adaptive capacity aim to lessen the physical, social or economic impacts of climate change.Building adaptive capacity may take advantage of new opportunities emerging from a changing climate.
Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Data Source: NYSDOL, FEMA
Total Construction Employment and Firms in Each ClimAid Region (2015)
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Data Source: NYSDOL, FEMA
Square Feet per Construction Employee and Firm (2015)The amount of building space that each firm/employee is responsible for, on average, in their region. The lower the figure, the higher the adaptive capacity.
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Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Data Source: MIG, Inc. Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN)
Output Multipliers for Residential and Non-Residential Construction (2015)
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Research Limitations:
Site-Level Data on Building Attributes
Historical Loss Data Weather Predictions
Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Limitations on Loss Estimation Data Sources:
Accuracy (Internal Biases)
Availability (Open Source
versus Proprietary)
Comparability Lack of Local-level Loss
Estimations
Ray, Paul, Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Michael E. Tuzzo, Martha Bohm, and Bart Roberts. 2018. Regional Costs of Climate-Related Hazards for the New York State Building Sector. NYSERDA, Albany, New York.
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Presentation prepared by:Nicholas B. Rajkovich, Elizabeth K. Gilman, Hope Forgus, and Thomas J. Mulligan
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ap.buffalo.edu/adapting-buildingsap.buffalo.edu/rajkovich