g. hardouvelis, 18/11/2008 1 “the international financial crisis and greece” gikas a....
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1G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
““The International The International Financial Crisis and Financial Crisis and
Greece”Greece”
Gikas A. HardouvelisGikas A. Hardouvelis**Athens, November 18, 2008Athens, November 18, 2008
ECONOMIA CONFERENCEECONOMIA CONFERENCEAthens, Karantzas MegaronAthens, Karantzas Megaron
* * Chief Economist, Eurobank EFG GroupChief Economist, Eurobank EFG Group Professor, Department of Banking and Financial Management, Un. of PiraeusProfessor, Department of Banking and Financial Management, Un. of Piraeus
2G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
I. Will Greece keep convergingto the EU-15 average despite the crisis?
Real growth rates, 1990–2009
Investment: the main driver of growth, with growth rates higher than those of consumption
Until 2005, investment in equipment higher than investment in residential construction
Is the party over now?
GDP per capitaPPS, EU-15=100
Source: European Commission
5.04.6
0.8
1.6
2.6
0.1
4.2
3.8
2.1
-1.6
0.7
2.0
2.4
3.6
3.4 3.4
4.5 4.5
4.0 3.3
2.5
3.9
0.9
2.8
1.4
-0.8
2.62.5
1.5
2.62.8
3.0
3.8
1.9
2.1
1.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
% Greece
EA
EU forecasts for 2009
71.0
91.3
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1995 2009
3G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
I. Greece at a crossroads
• Greece’s problems are long-term, with competitiveness carrying a large blame
• Surprisingly, Greece can withstand the crisis better than its European counterparts, thanks to its relatively strong banking system, with a projected 2009 rate of growth slightly above 2%
• Yet, if officials remain sluggish to the elevated demands for active policy, the crisis may also bring a nightmare scenario of negative growth
• If the recession scenario prevails, then subsequently the lack of policy tools and the long-run problems are bound to depress the economy for a long time
4G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
II.Competitiveness:
The Greek Economy’sDeepest Problem
5G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
II. Competitiveness and Ease of Doing Business
Competitiveness is the deepest thorn in the Greek economy World Bank - Doing Business 2009 report: Greece ranks 96th in
2008 among 181 economies in the ease of doing business, rising 10 places from the 106th in 2007.
Greece remains last among EU-27 countries
No 1: Singapore
Ease of Doing Business Rankings 2007 – 2008(rankings in reverse order)
Source: WEF
Improvement
Deterioration
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
2007
2008
Greece (+10)
No. 181: Congo
Ease of...Doing
Business 2008 rank
Change in rank from 2007
Doing Business 96 +10
Starting a Business 133 +17
Dealing with Construction Permits 45 +1
Employing Workers 133 +10
Registering Property 101 -5
Getting Credit 109 -7
Protecting Investors 150 +11
Paying Taxes 62 +32
Trading Across Borders 70 -4
Enforcing Contracts 85 -1
Closing a Business 41 0
6G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
ΙI. Competitiveness is way below Greece’s level of development
Source: WEF, IMF
GDP per capita, in $ PPP
Com
peti
tiven
ess R
an
kin
gs
, (re
vers
ed o
rder
)
Greece
Gap: 54 placesBrunei
Norway
SingaporeNew ZealandThailand
Georgia
y = 31,13Ln(x) - 180,36
R2 = 0,5871
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000
Based on its standard of living, Greece should have ranked 42nd instead of 96th
7G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
ΙI. Greece is expensive relative to its trading partners …
90100110120130140150160
01/1
994
01/1
995
01/1
996
01/1
997
01/1
998
01/1
999
01/2
000
01/2
001
01/2
002
01/2
003
01/2
004
01/2
005
01/2
006
01/2
007
01/2
008
REERULC
REERCPI
1994 = 100 Real Effective Exchange Rates have worsened since 2000
The higher CPI inflation in Greece points to lack of competition in product & service markets.
Unit labor costs are increasing faster in Greece
Source: IMF
8G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
II. … hence, Greece’s current account is getting worse
CA deficit has tripled relative to the pre-EMU period, while the growth in aggregate demand is the same as before
CA deficit can lead to an abrupt future recession
Source: Bank of Greece
-5.8 -7.4-11.1
-6.6
-14.1
-2.8 -7.8 -7.3 -6.8-3.8-3.9
-26
-21
-16
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-26
-21
-16
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
Income ServicesGoods TransfersCurrent Account Balance
% GDP % GDP
9G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III.
The global financial crisis
and the relative position
of the Greek financial system
10G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III. How large is the short-run correction? The two problems of the global crisis
1) Insolvency
2) Lack of liquidity
The next 15 months will provide a stress test of the Greek economy
Two problems underpin the global financial crisis:
Fortunately, structural reforms did occur in the Greek banking sector and Greek banks are very strong and healthy relative to their European peers, i.e., are well-capitalized
Yet, Greek banks are affected by the second factor, lack of liquidity
Which may lead to de-leveraging, i.e. the transmission of the crisis to the real economy
11G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III. Insolvency: Getting better
Total Write-downs: $ 708.5Total Capital Raised: $ 713.7Total Gap: $ -5.2
334
232
24
235
176
22
99
56
20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
US Europe Asia
Writedowns Capital Raised Gap
bn USD
Total Writedowns: $ 590.2Total Capital Raised: $ 433.7Total Gap: $ 156.5
Sept. 30, 2008
Source: Bloomberg
The gap between total write-downs and capital increases has declined sharply in recent weeks due to governments’ recapitalizationsIMF: Estimates write-downs for all FIs to reach $1.4 trillion
Banking sector only
426
255
28
377
296
4149
-41-13
-90
-10
70
150
230
310
390
US Europe Asia
Writedowns Capital Raised Gap
bn USD
Nov.18, 2008
12G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III. Insolvency: Greek banks better capitalized than most European banks
0123456789
30/ 6/ 2008
%
Best: EFG Intern/al 13.52% in Switzerland
Worst: DEXIA 1.67% in Belgium
Ranking of individual banks
Capital / Asset Ratio
13G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
Euro Area U.S.A.
III. Liquidity: Worsening not yet solved in Europe
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
17/11/2008: 92.1
10/10/2008: 162.1
1m Euribor - EONIA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
17/11/2008: 99.6
10/10/2008: 337.8
1m Libor - OIS
Uncovered minus covered 1-month inter-bank rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
17/11/2008: 22.0
8/10/2008: 105.1
1w Euribor - EONIA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
17/11/2008: 47.0
13/10/2008: 346.4
Uncovered minus covered 1-week inter-bank rates
1w Libor - OIS
14G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III. Liquidity: European banks are hoarding cash
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ju
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Oc
t-0
7
No
v-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Fe
b-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Au
g-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
No
v-0
8
19/9/2008: € 1.8 bn
7/11/2008: € 225.5 bn
EUR Billion
Source: ECB
Deposit Facility
15G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
ΙII. Liquidity: Less of a problem in Greece relative to Euro Area
Source: ECB, Balance Sheet Items data
Loans to Deposits RatioAugust 2008
(Total Loans to Total Deposits, MFIs excluding Eurosystem)
54.6
92.4 92.8 94.8 97.2 99.5 102.1108.9
139.8128.2122.7122.5121.2
116.5113.6112.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mal
ta
Gre
ece
Slo
ven
ia
Lu
x/rg
Bel
giu
m
Cyp
rus
Ger
man
y
Au
stri
a EA
Irel
and
Sp
ain
Fra
nce
Po
rtu
gal
Net
her
lan
ds
Italy
Fin
lan
d
%
16G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
III. Rescue measures …
Greece has offered half the EU-27 package
Measures have to be voted into Laws to be operational. Laggards as of 17/11/2008: Greece & Austria
Then, we hope to see renewed liquidity in the inter-bank market
Package Amount
% of 2009 GDP
Partial Adoption
Italy € 40 bn 2.5%
Belgium € 9.7 bn 2.7%
US $ 700 bn 4.8%
Greece € 28 bn 10.8% NO
Portugal € 20 bn 11.6%
Spain € 150 bn 13.4%
France € 360 bn 18.0%
Germany € 500 bn 19.5%
UK £ 500 bn 33.8%
Austria € 100 bn 34.2% NO
Netherlands € 220 bn 36.3%
Sweden SEK 1,500 bn 47.7%
Ireland € 400 bn 214.8% Total EU-27 € 2,580 bn 20.0%
17G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
* Sorted from largest (=1) to smallest (=13)
III. … related to the size of the problem
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6 8 10
Greece
Italy
US
Spain
Portugal
Austria
Ireland
Germany
France
UK
Sweden
Belgium
Netherlands
HIGH PROBLEMHIGH PACKAGE
LOW PROBLEMLOW PACKAGE
Capital / Asset Ratio (%)
y = 2.28 + 0.88xR2 = 20%
Ran
kin
g o
f re
scu
e m
easu
res/G
DP
*
18G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
IV.
How much will Greecebe affected by the crisis
in 2009?
Growth slowdown A nightmare scenario can be
avoided only through active policy intervention
19G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
ΙV. Greece: Channels of negative influence
1) Lower economic activity abroad → less exports, lower tourist receipts, less foreign buying of property, lower shipping rates
2) Higher interest rates due to liquidity considerations → less credit expansion, lower consumption & investment
Greece will avoid:
Large bank failures and abrupt restriction of credit due to solvency reasons to the same degree observed abroad
9,00
9,50
10,00
10,50
11,00
11,50
12,00
Bill
ion
s Jan 2008 - Aug 2008: 5% yoy
Tourist receipts
€ bn
0100020003000400050006000
700080009000
10000110001200013000
Νοε-9
9Μα
ρ-00
Ιουλ-0
0Νο
ε-00
Μαρ-
01Ιου
λ-01
Νοε-0
1Μα
ρ-02
Ιουλ-0
2Νο
ε-02
Μαρ-
03Ιου
λ-03
Νοε-0
3Μα
ρ-04
Ιουλ-0
4Νο
ε-04
Μαρ-
05Ιου
λ-05
Νοε-0
5Μα
ρ-06
Ιουλ-0
6Νο
ε-06
Μαρ-
07Ιου
λ-07
Νοε-0
7Μα
ρ-08
Ιουλ-0
8
Νοε-0
8
17/11/2008: 856
20/5/2008: 11793
Baltic Dry Index
20G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
IV. Bearish markets are harsh on Greece
Recent increase in gov. bond spread is consistent with historical behavior (thus not due to the package): It is explained by similar increases in other EA spreads plus EMBI+
Markets do not see the better position of Greek banks: Banking stocks hard hit
Nov 17: GR 33.04 EA 32.97 USA 38.44
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
29
/6/2
00
7
29
/7/2
00
7
29
/8/2
00
7
29
/9/2
00
7
29
/10
/20
07
29
/11
/20
07
29
/12
/20
07
29
/1/2
00
8
29
/2/2
00
8
29
/3/2
00
8
29
/4/2
00
8
29
/5/2
00
8
29
/6/2
00
8
29
/7/2
00
8
29
/8/2
00
8
29
/9/2
00
8
29
/10
/20
08
Greece EuroArea USA
Banking Stock indices since 29/6/2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Ma
y-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Se
p-0
7
No
v-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Se
p-0
8
No
v-0
8
b.p.
17/3/2008: 71.0 b.p.
17/11/2008: 148.1 b.p.
29/6/2007: 25.0 b.p.
10-y Gov. Bond Spread: Greece-Germany
21G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
IV. Greece: Will the good scenario prevail?
THE GOOD SCENARIO:yoy growth in constant prices
Weights (2007) EU 2008 EU 2009 GH 2009
GDP 100.0% 3.1 2.5 2.1
Pr. Consumption 71.2% 2.6 2.2 2.0
Pub. Consumption 16.7% 2.9 2.7 2.4
Investment 22.5% 3.2 2.8 2.1
Exports 23.0% 4.2 3.1 2.6
Imports 33.5% 2.6 2.5 2.1
HCPI 4.4 3.5 3.3
Budget deficit (% GDP) -2.5 -2.2 -2.9
Public debt (% GDP) 93.4 92.2 93.0
Unemployment rate 9.0 9.2 8.7
Current account (% GDP) -14.3 -15.0 -14.0
YES, if: 1. Loan expansion resumes by year-end2. Investment growth fills in the slack3. Consumption growth declines and imports decline for a longer period than the current global recession
22G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
V. Conclusions The current crisis has delayed affecting Greece because of the health of its
financial sector. Is the worst in front of us?
Two possibilities for 2009:
I. Good scenario of growth slightly > 2%,
II. Nightmare scenario of growth < 0, as past experience shows that Greek recessions are the worst ones in the OECD, with a total mean output loss of -6.45% of GDP (2 times bigger the mean OECD country loss and 3 times the median loss)
Two main risk drivers will determine which scenario will unfold:
I. The liquidity issue, as Greece & Austria remain the two countries with no government measures that have become Law
II. The need for aggressive fiscal expansion, mainly though investment projects co-financed with the EU
In a future environment of low growth, it may be more difficult to carry on with those structural reforms needed to improve competitiveness.
In a possible nightmare scenario, our limited macro-economic tools and the long-run imbalances imply that once in a recession A long period of stagnation may follow
23G. Hardouvelis, 18/11/2008
For more info, please consult the Eurobank website:
http://www.eurobank.gr/research
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!My thanks to the Research department of Eurobank EFG
for able research assistance and support
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