FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND ISSUES

SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE

February 4, 2020

South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office

1000 Assembly Street

Rembert Dennis Building, Suite 421

Columbia, SC 29201

(803) 734-2265

www.rfa.sc.gov

02/04/2020 2

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

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UNITED STATES CENSUS POPULATION Change From 2010 to 2018

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211A - lpw/4/29/19

02/04/2020 3

02/04/2020 4

02/04/2020 5

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$22,000

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

(U.S

., B

illi

on

s o

f D

oll

ars

)

(S.C

., M

illi

on

s o

f D

oll

ars

)

Fiscal Year

Personal Income in the United States and South Carolina

S.C. Personal Income U.S. Personal Income

2000

SC = 1.17% of

2018

SC = 1.24% of

1990

SC = 1.15% of

1980

SC = 1.08% of

2010

SC = 1.20% of

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, S.C. Board of Economic Advisors

02/04/2020 6

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/260/01-02-20

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

SC PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH - ACTUALS AND ESTIMATESDec 2018 Series and Feb 2019 Estimates

Dec 2018 Data /

Feb 2019 Est 4.25%

02/04/2020 7

The call on the field was that SC Personal Income grew less than four percent. That data is under review.

02/04/2020 8

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/261/01-02-20

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

SC PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH - ACTUAL AND ESTIMATESDec 2018 Series v. Dec 2019 Series

Dec 2019 Series

Dec 2018 Series

FY 20 Est5.25%

FY 21 Est4.50%

02/04/2020 9

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

(U.S

. E

mp

loym

en

t, 0

00

's)

(S.C

. E

mp

loym

en

t, 0

00

's)

Calendar Year

Total Nonfarm Employment in the United States & South Carolina

SC Employment U.S. Employment

2000

SC = 1.40% of

US Employment

2018

SC = 1.44% of

US Employment

1990

SC = 1.39% of

1980

SC = 1.31% of

2010

SC = 1.39% of

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, S.C. Board of Economic Advisors

02/04/2020 10

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C., S.C. Board of Economic Advisors

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Min

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& L

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(Pe

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nt

Ch

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Fro

m O

ne

Ye

ar

Ag

o)

Growth in Nonfarm Employment By Sector in 2018South Carolina and the United States

South Carolina United States

South Carolina Nonfarm Employment Growth by Sector – Percent Change (2017-2018)

02/04/2020 11

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

$90.0

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19

ACCOMMODATIONS TAX

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-21-20

02/04/2020 12

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY 2

00

9-1

0

FY 2

01

0-1

1

FY 2

01

1-1

2

FY 2

01

2-1

3

FY 2

01

3-1

4

FY 2

01

4-1

5

FY 2

01

5-1

6

FY 2

01

6-1

7 (

e)

FY 2

01

7-1

8 (

e)

FY 2

01

8-1

9 (

e)

FY 2

01

9-2

0 (

e)

FY 2

02

0-2

1 (

e)

FY 2

02

1-2

2 (

e)

FY 2

02

2-2

3 (

e)

FY 2

02

3-2

4 (

e)

FY 2

02

4-2

5 (

e)

FY 2

02

5-2

6 (

e)

FY 2

02

6-2

7 (

e)

FY 2

02

7-2

8 (

e)

SC RETIREMENT SYSTEM FUNDED RATIO

Funded Ratio 2017 and 2018 SCRS Funded Ratio (Since 2017 Act) Funded Ratio (Estimated for 2017 Act)

Source: SC Retirement Systems CAFR and Joint Committee on Pension Systems Review,197,GOS/FAR, 01/3/20

02/04/2020 13

1.29

1.03

0.86

0.6

0.47

0.4

0.34

0.26

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.37

0.6

0.79

0.95

1.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

e

20

20

e

SC UNEMPLOYMENT TRUST FUND STATUSRatio of Fund Balance to One Year Payout (Moderate Recession) - Actual vs Goal

Year End Balance USDOL /GA Goal

Goal 1.0

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-9-20

02/04/2020 14

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1/16/20

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SC INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX LIABILITY AS A PERCENTAGE OF FEDERAL AGI

Tax ReformBefore Tax Reform

Data NotAvailable

02/04/2020 15

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

FY 0

8

FY 0

9

FY 1

0

FY 1

1

FY 1

2

FY 1

3

FY 1

4

FY 1

5

FY 1

6

FY 1

7

FY 1

8

FY 1

9

FY 2

0 e

.

FY 2

1 e

.

(Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs)

General Fund Revenue (Net) Property Tax Relief Trust Fund Homestead Exemption Shortfall

GENERAL FUND REVENUE With Trust Fund and Homestead Exemption Shortfall

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs 213-LHJ 11/12/2019

02/04/2020 16

$119.0 $97.0

($183.7)

$4.5

$266.0

$434.8

$581.0 $537.9

($222.4)

($860.9)

($322.2)

$367.4 $314.3

$523.8

$108.4

$479.9

$326.3 $319.1

$547.5

$696.1

$436.0 $390.9

($1,000)

($800)

($600)

($400)

($200)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

FY 0

0

FY 0

1

FY 0

2

FY 0

3

FY 0

4

FY 0

5

FY 0

6

FY 0

7

FY 0

8

FY 0

9

FY 1

0

FY 1

1

FY 1

2

FY 1

3

FY 1

4

FY 1

5

FY 1

6

FY 1

7

FY 1

8

FY 1

9

FY 2

0 (

e)

FY 2

1 (

e)

($ in

Mill

ion

s)ANNUAL GROWTH IN GENERAL FUND REVENUE

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs - 169A/LHJ/11/12/19

02/04/2020 17

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 (e) FY 21 (e)

Fiscal Year

HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION FUND (TIER III)Revenues and Expenditures

1% Sales Tax Revenue Homestead Exemption and $2.5 Minimum

Note: Tier III Expenditure includes $2.5M minimum disbursements and lease purchase lawsuit revisions. Revenue projection based upon 11/08/2019 BEA forecast.

FY 21 Projected

Excess:$17.1 M

(Mill

ion

so

f D

olla

rs)

Source: SC Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office MKM-40- 11/08/19

02/04/2020 18

$81

$225

$292 $285$325

$278 $270 $263 $275 $273$300 $303

$325

$350

$407 $401

$437

$491$470 $470

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

FY 2

001

-02

FY 2

002

-03

FY 2

003

-04

FY 2

004

-05

FY 2

005

-06

FY 2

006

-07

FY 2

007

-08

FY 2

008

-09

FY 2

009

-10

FY 2

010

-11

FY 2

011

-12

FY 2

012

-13

FY 2

013

-14

FY 2

014

-15

FY 2

015

-16

FY 2

016

-17

FY 2

017

-18

FY 2

018

-19

FY 2

019

-20

(e)

FY 2

020

-21

(e)

(Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs)

TRANSFERS TO SC EDUCATION LOTTERY ACCOUNTSInception to FY 2020-21 BEA Estimate

General Proceeds Unclaimed Prizes Interest

Source: South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office RFA/265/jlw/01/22/2020

02/04/2020 19

$863.0

$350.0

$507.0

$162.0

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

$800.0

$900.0

$1,000.0

FY 2020-21 Budget Growth FY 2018-19 Surplus (NR) FY 2019-20 Projected Surplus (NR) FY 2019-20 Capital Reserve Fund (NR)

FY 2020-21 BUDGET PROCESS - AVAILABLE FUNDS

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-8-20

02/04/2020 20

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

$8,800

$9,000

$9,200

$9,400

$9,600

$9,800

$10,000

$10,200

$10,400

FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

FY 20 Budget Process

FY 2019-20 APPROPRIATIONS ACT EXPECTATIONSEstimated Revenue Growth (April 2019)

FY 19 EstimatedRevenue Growth

$288.7 million (Revised)

FY 20 EstimatedRevenue Growth

$336.0 million

02/04/2020 21

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

$8,800

$9,000

$9,200

$9,400

$9,600

$9,800

$10,000

$10,200

$10,400

FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process

FY 2018-19 ACTUAL REVENUE GROWTHImpact to FY 2019-20 Appropriations Act Expectations (August 2019)

FY 19 Surplus$350 million*

FY 19 ActualRevenue Growth

$696.1 million

FY 19 Expected Revenue Growth

$288.7 million

02/04/2020 22

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

$8,800

$9,000

$9,200

$9,400

$9,600

$9,800

$10,000

$10,200

$10,400

FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process

FY 2019-20 REVISED REVENUE ESTIMATEEffect of Actual FY 2018-19 Growth On FY 2019-20 Revenue Surplus (November 2019)

FY 19 Surplus$350 million

FY 20 Est Surplus$507 million

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/11/6/20

02/04/2020 23

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

$8,800

$9,000

$9,200

$9,400

$9,600

$9,800

$10,000

$10,200

$10,400

FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process

FY 2020-21 BUDGET "CATCH-UP"Compounding Effect of FY 2018-19 Revenue Surplus on FY 2020-21 Budget (November 2019)

FY 21 Budget Growth

$863 million

FY 21 EstimatedRevenue Growth$390.9 million

$350 millionFY 19 Surplus

$507 millionFY 20 Surplus

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19

02/04/2020 24

$8,500

$8,600

$8,700

$8,800

$8,900

$9,000

$9,100

$9,200

$9,300

$9,400

$9,500

$9,600

$9,700

$9,800

$9,900

$10,000

$10,100

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun

FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

ROLLING FISCAL YEAR - TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE Actuals, Estimates, and Limits - FY 2018-19 to FY 2019-20

Actual Collections Estimates Lower Limit Upper Limit

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/2/3/20

02/04/2020 25

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/2-3-20

$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480$500$520$540$560$580$600$620$640$660$680$700

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May

FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 FY2014-15 FY2015-16 FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20

(Do

llars

in M

illio

ns)

ROLLING FISCAL YEAR - CORPORATE INCOME & LICENSE TAXESFY 2010-11 to FY 2019-20

Actual Collections

02/04/2020 26

$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

$700,000,000

$800,000,000

K-12 Education, SpecialSchools & Cultural Total

Higher Education &Technical Schools Total

Health & Social ServicesTotal

Economic Development &Natural Resources Total

Judicial, Law Enforcement& Criminal Justice Total

Transportation &Regulatory Total

Legislative, Executive &Local Government Total

BUDGET REQUESTS FY 2020-21

Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-22-20

02/04/2020 27

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

FY 1

999

-00

FY 2

000

-01

FY 2

001

-02

FY 2

002

-03

FY 2

003

-04

FY 2

004

-05

FY 2

005

-06

FY 2

006

-07

FY 2

007

-08

FY 2

008

-09

FY 2

009

-10

FY 2

010

-11

FY 2

011

-12

FY 2

012

-13

FY 2

013

-14

FY 2

014

-15

FY 2

015

-16

FY 2

016

-17

FY 2

017

-18

FY 2

018

-19

FY 2

019

-20

(es

t)

FY 2

020

-21

(es

t)

EFA BASE STUDENT COST BSC Provided for Budget Compared to Final BSC

BSC Provided for Budget Final BSC

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267A - lpw/1/21/20

02/04/2020 28

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

FY 2

007

-08

FY 2

008

-09

FY 2

009

-10

FY 2

010

-11

FY 2

011

-12

FY 2

012

-13

FY 2

013

-14

FY 2

014

-15

FY 2

015

-16

FY 2

016

-17

FY 2

017

-18

FY 2

018

-19

FY 2

019

-20

(es

t)

FY 2

020

-21

(es

t)

SOUTH CAROLINA SCHOOL ENROLLMENTAnnual Growth by Type of School

Regular School Districts Charter School Districts Special School Districts Private Schools Home School

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267G - lpw/1/21/20

02/04/2020 29

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

FY 1

999

-00

FY 2

000

-01

FY 2

001

-02

FY 2

002

-03

FY 2

003

-04

FY 2

004

-05

FY 2

005

-06

FY 2

006

-07

FY 2

007

-08

FY 2

008

-09

FY 2

009

-10

FY 2

010

-11

FY 2

011

-12

FY 2

012

-13

FY 2

013

-14

FY 2

014

-15

FY 2

015

-16

FY 2

016

-17

FY 2

017

-18

FY 2

018

-19

FY 2

019

-20

(es

t)

FY 2

020

-21

(es

t)

SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEACHER SALARY

S.C. Actual SE Avg. with Revisions

Note: The FY 2019-20 S.C. actual teacher salary figure is a preliminary figure from the S.C. Department of Education.

FY 2019-20 S.C. Actual teacher salary is $290 below the SE

average.

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267B - lpw/1/21/20

02/04/2020 30

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

FY 1

999

-00

FY 2

000

-01

FY 2

001

-02

FY 2

002

-03

FY 2

003

-04

FY 2

004

-05

FY 2

005

-06

FY 2

006

-07

FY 2

007

-08

FY 2

008

-09

FY 2

009

-10

FY 2

010

-11

FY 2

011

-12

FY 2

012

-13

FY 2

013

-14

FY 2

014

-15

FY 2

015

-16

FY 2

016

-17

FY 2

017

-18

FY 2

018

-19

FY 2

019

-20

FY 2

020

-21

est

.

LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUNDComparison of Actual Funding to Statutory Formula

Actual LGF History Statutory FormulaNote: The Local Government Fund Appropriation is projected to increase from $233,740,696 in FY 2019-20 to $245,427,731 in FY 2020-21, which is a 5% increase.

Source: S.C Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 193/lpw/11/14/19

02/04/2020 31

-$500,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

HO

RR

Y

YOR

K

BER

KEL

EY

CH

AR

LEST

ON

GR

EEN

VIL

LE

LAN

CA

STER

DO

RC

HES

TER

BEA

UFO

RT

LEX

ING

TON

JASP

ER

SPA

RTA

NB

UR

G

SALU

DA

MA

RIO

N

KER

SHA

W

CA

LHO

UN

ALL

END

ALE

EDG

EFIE

LD

NEW

BER

RY

OC

ON

EE

BA

MB

ERG

AB

BEV

ILLE

BA

RN

WEL

L

HA

MP

TON

GEO

RG

ETO

WN

CH

ERO

KEE

FAIR

FIEL

D

LEE

CH

ESTE

R

UN

ION

DIL

LON

CLA

REN

DO

N

CO

LLET

ON

AN

DER

SON

MA

RLB

OR

O

MC

CO

RM

ICK

CH

ESTE

RFI

ELD

GR

EEN

WO

OD

PIC

KEN

S

LAU

REN

S

AIK

EN

WIL

LIA

MSB

UR

G

RIC

HLA

ND

DA

RLI

NG

TON

SUM

TER

FLO

REN

CE

OR

AN

GEB

UR

G

COUNTY LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUND CENSUS POPULATION IMPACT Funding With 2010 Census vs 2018 Estimated Population

Note: Local Government Fund estimates are based upon recurring funds of $233,740,696 as ratified by the General Assembly on May 22, 2019. The population figures are based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data and 2018 U.S. Census population estimates.

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211C - emm/06/03/19

02/04/2020 32

-$2,000,000

-$1,500,000

-$1,000,000

-$500,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

MUNICIPAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUND CENSUS POPULATION IMPACT Change in Funding with 2010 Census vs 2018 Estimated Population

218 Municipalities Lose Local Government Fund Revenue

53 Municipalities Gain Local GovernmentFund Revenue

Note: Local Government Fund estimates are based upon recurring funds of $233,740,696 as ratified by the General Assembly on May 22, 2019. The population figures are based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data and 2018 U.S. Census population estimates.

Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211G - emm/06/04/19

THANK YOU!

SOUTH CAROLINAREVENUE AND FISCAL AFFAIRS OFFICE

02/04/2020 33

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