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FY 2019/20 BTS GROUP EARNINGS PRESENTATION
SET OPPORTUNITY DAY
11 JUNE 2020
In this challenging time, we commend our brave heroes for their sacrifices in helping
fight the COVID-19 pandemic and we extend our support and encouragement to everyone
“ “
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Disclaimer
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 3
Investment involves risk. Prospective should understand the characteristics of Securities and study information about BTS Group Holdings
Public Company Limited (the “Company”) before making a decision to invest in Securities. This presentation is for information purposes only
and is intended only for the initial direct attendee of the presentation. It may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. It
shall not and does not constitute either an offer to purchase or buy or a solicitation to purchase or buy or an offer to sell or exchange or a
solicitation to sell or exchange any securities of BTS Group Holdings PCL (the "Company") or any of its subsidiaries in the United States of
America or in any other jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its
existence, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No
representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein.
This presentation is not to be relied upon in any manner as legal, tax or any other advice and shall not be used in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment and each person made aware of the information set-forth hereof shall be responsible for conducting its
own investigation and analysis of the information contained herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided in this
presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date stated or, if no date is stated, as of the date of preparation and not as of any
future date, and the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. None of the Company nor any of its
subsidiaries accepts any obligation to update or otherwise revise any such information to reflect information that subsequently becomes
available or circumstances existing or changes occurring after the date hereof. None of the Company or any of its subsidiaries or any of
their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss
howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation and any and all
such liability is expressly disclaimed.
The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the
express written approval of the Company. Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to
various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to the Company’s corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other
statement that are not historical facts. These statement can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”,
“expect” , “intend”, “estimate”, “continue”, “plan” or other similar words. The statements are based on the assumptions and beliefs of the
Company’s management in light of the information currently available to the Company. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties
which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or
achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this Presentation is, or should be relied on as promise
or representation of the Company as to the future.
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL 4
BTS Group Update 2019/20 Sustainable Development Recognition
DJSI in the Emerging Markets 2019 (2nd Rank in the Transportation Sector)
Thailand Sustainability Investment The Stock Exchange of Thailand, 2019
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Platinum Award The Asset ESG Corporate Award 2019
Silver Class Distinction The Sustainability Yearbook 2020
Sustainability Disclosure Recognition Thaipat Institute, 2019
Best Green Bond The Asset Triple A Sustainable
Capital Markets Regional Awards 2019
At BTS Group, we embrace sustainability as a core value and are
committed to practicing good corporate governance as we believe
this strengthens the long-term growth prospects of our business. GROWING TOGETHER
GROWING
SUSTAINABILITY
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BTS Group Holdings PCL
Agenda
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 5
FY 2019/20 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1
BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2
APPENDICES SECTION 3
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
FY 2019/20 Highlights
6
Solid growth in profitability
Operating Revenue of THB 39.9bn
+47% YoY
Record Recurring Net Profit
of THB 4.8bn
Balance sheet remains strong
Cash & Liquid Investments
THB 17.7bn
Adjusted Net D/E
1.05x
Low leverage
Financing cash earmarked for investments in Mass Transit projects
(17)% YoY
+22% YoY
Operating EBITDA of THB 7.5bn
Cash received
from the exercise of BTS-W4
THB 13.7bn
Net investments in
Pink & Yellow Lines &
Green Extensions
THB 21.7bn
Net increase in long-term loans
from financial institutions of
THB 15.6bn
P&L HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL POSITION 12M CASH FLOW
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
OPERATING REVENUE COMPARISON (YoY)
INCOME STATEMENT (THB mn) FY 2019/20 FY 2018/19 % YoY
Operating Revenue1 39,937 48,004 (17)%
Gross operating profit 9,595 7,884 22%
Operating EBITDA2 7,460 6,137 22%
Recurring net profit – after MI 4,776 3,248 47%
Net income (loss)3 8,162 2,873 184%
Gross operating profit margin (%) 24.0% 16.4%
Recurring net profit margin – after MI(%) 11.4% 6.6%
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 18.7% 12.8%
P&L SNAPSHOT
FY 2019/20 OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
1 operating revenue of 4 BUs & share of net profit from BTSGIF 2 excluding non-mass transit interest income 3 to equity holders of the parent
7
FY 2019/20 Overview
80%
Mass Transit 15%
Media
1%
Property
4%
Services
48,004 39,937 (9,252) 530 21 634
FY18/19 Mass Transit Media Property Services FY19/20
(22)% 57% 10% 6%
(THB mn)
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Share of net
profit in
BTSGIF
2%
Construction
revenue for Pink
and Yellow Lines
53%
Mass Transit
related
interest income
6%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB bn) KEY FACTORS
Total Mass Transit revenue of THB 32,076mn, a decline of 22.4% YoY from a lower
recognition of construction revenue for the Pink and Yellow lines to THB 16.9mn
(THB 30.7bn in FY 2018/19), partially offset by
• Higher services revenue from provision of E&M works & train procurement for
Green Line ext. of THB 2.2bn YoY to THB 8.3bn
• Higher O&M revenue of THB 1,476mn YoY to THB 3,753mn, chiefly as a result
of the full opening of Southern Green Line ext. and the opening of the first 5
stations of Northern Green Line ext.
• Higher Mass Transit related interest income of THB 842mn YoY to THB 1,920mn
Cost dropped by THB 11,178mn to THB 25,691mn largely from the reduced
recognition of construction cost for the Pink and Yellow Lines
Operating EBITDA margin rose YoY to 20.0% (10.9% in FY 2018/19)
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
MASS TRANSIT
(THB mn)
FY
2019/20
FY
2018/19 %YoY
Revenue 32,076 41,328 (22)%
Costs of revenue 25,691 36,868 (30)%
Gross profit 6,385 4,460 43%
Operating EBITDA 6,421 4,497 43%
Gross margin (%) 19.9% 10.8%
Operating EBITDA
margin (%) 20.0% 10.9%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
FY 2019/20
8
Mass Transit
Services revenue from provision
of E&M works & train
procurement for Green Line ext.
26%
O&M
12%
4Q
18/19
1Q
19/20
2Q
19/20
3Q
19/20
4Q
19/20
Construction revenue for Pink
and Yellow Lines
5.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 3.7
Services revenue from provision of
E&M works & train procurement
for Green Line ext.
1.4 1.4 3.1 2.1 1.6
Mass Transit related interest
income
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5
O&M 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1
Share of net profit in BTSGIF 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Others* 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 *Comprises of (i) Services revenue from provision of E&M works for Gold Line and (ii) Farebox revenue from BRT
Others*
1%
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
22%
Outdoor Media
6%
Office
Buildings
and Others
35%
Digital*
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
Media revenue of THB 5,735mn, an increase of 10.2% YoY mainly driven by the
growth in Digital services segment
• Digital Services revenue* rose by 54.3% YoY to THB 2,026mn largely due
to the revenue recognition of VGI Digital Lab
• OOH Media revenue** decreased by 4.7% YoY to THB 3,709mn, chiefly
due to a digital transformation impact on BTS stations and lower
utilisation rate of Office Media
Costs increased by 36.9% YoY to THB 2,627mn primarily due to higher cost of
project management and online advertising under Digital Services segment
Operating EBITDA margin declined YoY to 36.2% (45.4% in FY 2018/19)
Share of net profit from Kerry Express (Thailand) of THB 268mn (THB 169mn in
FY 2018/19)
37%
BTS – Related
Media
MEDIA
(THB mn)
FY
2019/201
FY
2018/19 %YoY
Operating revenue 5,735 5,204 10%
Costs of revenue 2,627 1,919 37%
Gross profit 3,108 3,285 (5)%
Operating EBITDA 2,077 2,363 (12)%
Gross margin (%) 54.2% 63.1%
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 36.2% 45.4%
FY 2019/20
OPERATING PERFORMANCE OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
9
Media
* Digital services revenue includes revenue generating from (i) Rabbit Group, (ii) VGI Digital Lab
** OOH Media includes Transit, Outdoor and Office Building and Other Media
986 928 1,010 1,204
568
411 435 597
632
361
4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q 19/20
Digital Services Business
OOH Media
*
1 Note that FY 2019/20 operating performances from Media business included contribution of MACO
and its subsidiaries for the period from April 2019 to January 2020
OOH Media (65%)
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Residential
10%
HISTORICAL OPERATING REVENUE (THB mn) KEY FACTORS
Operating revenue was THB 381mn, an increase of 5.8% YoY, chiefly
from commercial property revenue which now primarily comprises of
revenue from Thana City Golf & Sports Club
Significant rise in share of net profit from investment in U City, our
associate, of THB 1,152mn (THB 80mn loss in FY 2018/19) largely due
to the recognition of gain of THB 1,118mn from the sale of Mochit
Land by U City.
Operating costs dropped by 5.6% YoY to THB 345mn.
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
PROPERTY
(THB mn)
FY
2019/20
FY
2018/19 %YoY
Operating Revenue 381 360 6%
Costs of revenue 345 326 6%
Gross profit 36 34 7%
Operating EBITDA (16) (22) (26)%
Gross margin (%) 9.5% 9.3%
Operating EBITDA
margin (%) (4.3)% (6.1)%
OPERATING REVENUE BREAKDOWN
FY 2019/20
NOTE: Property operating performances exclude share of profit/(loss) from investment
in U City
10
Property
90%
Commercial
& Others
89
80
100
113
88
4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q19/20
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
52,310 67,245
50,477
72,940
41,611
32,915
31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20
Total shareholders' equity Total non-current liabilities
Total current liabilities
173,100
144,398
124,745 150,702
19,653
22,398
31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20
Total non-current assets Total current assets
173,100
144,398
Cash
31 Mar 19: THB 4.0bn
31 Mar 20: THB 3.2bn
Cash & liquid investment
31 Mar 19: THB 18.7bn
31 Mar 20: THB 17.7bn
Current Investments
31 Mar 19: THB 7.7bn
31 Mar 20: THB 2.7bn
Long-Term Investments
31 Mar 19: THB 14.6bn
31 Mar 20: THB 17.9bn
86%
14%
13%
87%
19%
39%
42%
36%
29%
35%
FY 2019/20: 1.32x FY 2018/19: 1.39x
Gross Debt
to Equity
FY 2019/20: 1.05x FY 2018/19: 1.03x
Adjusted Net
Debt2 to Equity
FY 2019/20: 7.35x FY 2018/19: 7.43x
Adjusted Net Debt2
to Recurring EBITDA
FY 2019/20: 3.32x FY 2018/19: 3.74x
Interest Coverage
FY 2019/20: 0.68x FY 2018/19: 0.47x
Current Ratio
ASSETS BREAKDOWN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY BREAKDOWN
KEY RATIOS
11
Financial Position as of 31 March 2020
1 Comprised of 19% floating-rate debt and 81% fixed-rate debt 2Adjusted Net Debt = Interest Bearing Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalent and Liquid Investment
(THB mn) (THB mn) Gross Debt
31 Mar 19: THB 72.5bn
31 Mar 20: THB 88.6bn1
Adjusted Net Debt2
31 Mar 19: THB 53.8bn
31 Mar 20: THB 70.9bn
*****
Issued Ordinary Shares
31 Mar 19: 11,845.4mn
31 Mar 20: 13,154.3mn
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 1: FY 2019/20 Financial Performance
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Agenda
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
FY 2019/20 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1
BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2
APPENDICES SECTION 3
12
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Mass Transit Update 9 out of 16 Northern Green stations began operational
Northern Green Line extension
(16 stations, 17.8km)
N 8
M O C H I T
N 9
H A Y A E K
L A T P R A O
K A S E T S A R T
U N I V E R S I T Y
N 1 3
R O Y A L
F O R E S T
D E P A R T M E N T
N 1 4
B A N G B U A
N 1 5
1 1 T H
I N F A N T R Y
R E G I M E N T
N 1 6
W A T P H R A S R I
M A H A T H A T
N 1 7
K H U K H O T
N
2
4
N 24
Aug 2019
Current Green Line
network operation
52 stations
58.1 km
Green Line, to be
operational in 2020
59 stations
66.7 km
13 BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 2: Business Updates
Targeted in
Dec 2020
5 Jun 2020
Dec 2019
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Transportation Update
14 BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 2: Business Updates
EXTENSION GREEN ZONE 2 PINK AND YELLOW LINE
Consortium N.A.
(100% BTS)
75% BTS
15% STEC
10% RATCH
Authority BMA MRTA
Investment
Type
O&M Contract PPP Net Cost
Operation 25 years 30 years
Scope Train procurement
25 years: O&M
39 months:
Construction
30 years: Farebox
revenue collection and
O&M
Project Cost Train procurement
≈THB 9.8bn
≈THB 96.1bn (gov’t subsidy, THB 47.55bn)
Status Southern: full operation
in Dec 18
Northern: Expected full
operation by 2020
PPP Contract signed
Expected COD: Oct 21
M6 MOTORWAY M81 MOTORWAY U-TAPAO AIRPORT
40% BTS
40% GULF
10% STEC
10% RATCH
40% BTS
40% GULF
10% STEC
10% RATCH
45% BA
35% BTS
20% STEC
DOH DOH RTN
PPP Gross Cost PPP Gross Cost PPP Net Cost
30 years 30 years 47 years
3 years: Design &
Construction (Toll
Plaza, Toll Collection
System, Traffic Mgt
Control System,
Other infrastructure
30 years: O&M
3 years: Design &
Construction (Toll
Plaza, Toll Collection
System, Traffic Mgt
Control System,
Other infrastructure
30 years: O&M
3 years: Design &
Build Passenger
Terminal Building 3,
Commercial Gateway,
Cargo Village, Cargo
Complex
47 years: O&M
[to be disclosed] [to be disclosed]
THB 27bn
(phase 1)
PPP Contract signing
expected by Jul 20
PPP Contract signing
expected by Jul 20
PPP Contract signing
expected by Jun 20
Remarks: This summary excludes “30-year O&M Contract” for Gold Line Phase 1 (Krung Thon Buri – Klong San, 1.7km, 3 stations) which the contract was signed in Jul 18, expected COD in 4Q 20.
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Media Update VGI’s key developments in FY 2019/20
15 BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 2: Business Updates
ADVERTISING PAYMENT LOGISTICS
Established VGI Digital Lab, an
online media agency, focusing
on creating online/digital
marketing campaign based on
the Group’s DMP
Partnered with iClick
Interactive Asia Group, the
largest online marketing and
data technology platform in
China
Changed in classification of
an investment in MACO from
subsidiary to associate
company
Realised considerable
synergies with PlanB by
launching new media
packages such as Bangkok
Takeover, Street Combo and
Bangkok Combo
Partnered with SAHA
Group, Thailand’s
consumer product
leader
• Opened 12 Lawson
shops on BTS
Continued to experience
strong user growth
• 13.0mn Rabbit cards
• 7.3mn Rabbit LinePay
users
Delivered the better
experience for consumers
through synergies with
Kerry
• > 600,000 Smart
Sampling
• > 500,000 Parcel Wrap
• > 400 Trucks Wrap
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL 16
U City’s Project Update
VERSO INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL THE CUSTOMS HOUSE (ROI CHAK SAM) THE UNICORN PHAYATHAI
Concept Providing unique learning experience by
paring modern technology and
contemporary teaching techniques
A luxurious 5-star hotel project in a rare,
historic, colonial-era heritage building
located along magnificent Chao Praya
Riverside
51 levels of mixed-use building
comprising of retail, office, hotel and
residence
Project Value Approximately THB 4.8bn Approximately THB 4.6bn Approximately THB 9.3bn
Location Thana City On the Chao Praya Riverside, Soi
Charoenkrung 36, Bangrak, Bangkok
Adjacent to 2 mass transit stations: BTS
Phayathai Station and Airport Rail Link
Land Area 79.4 Rai or 12.7 Ha (127,065 sqm) 5.15 Rai or 0.82 Ha (8,240 sqm) 7.3 Rai or 1.2 Ha (11,749.6 sqm)
Construction
Timeline
Project Period Approximately 39 months 6 years Approximately 48 months
Status
(as of 31 Mar 20)
90% On the Fine Arts Department submission
process for approval
14%
4Q 2019 2024
Start Completion
3Q 2017 1Q 2022
Start Completion
2017 2Q 2020
Start Completion
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 2: Business Updates
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Agenda
BTS Group Earnings Presentation 17
FY 2019/20 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE SECTION 1
BUSINESS UPDATES SECTION 2
APPENDICES SECTION 3
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Mass Transit Update Progress of 46 New Trains Delivery
18
79 trains currently in service (vs 52 trains in 2015)
98 trains are expected to be fully in service by 2020
24 trains all arrived 22 trains all arrived all trains in service
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
5 trains in service
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Transportation Update Intercity Motorway – BGSR JV as the best bidder
19
Status
M6: Bang Pa In –
Nakhon Ratchasima
Investment Type PPP Gross Cost
Distance 196km
Contract Term 2 phases
3Y 30Y
Design & Construction Operating & Maintenance (O&M)
Budget Approved by the Cabinet THB 33.2bn
M81: Bang Yai –
Kanchanaburi
PPP Gross Cost
96km
THB 27.8bn
Authority Department of Highways
Department of Highways
Price Proposed by BGSR THB 21.3bn THB 17.8bn
BGSR
JV 40% 40%
10% 10%
Expected COD 2023 2023
Bang Pa In
Nakhon
Ratchasima
196km
96km
Bang Yai
Kanchanaburi
M
6
M
81
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
Scope of Works
Phase I: Design and Construction (3 years)
• Toll Collection System
• Traffic Management and Control System
• Other infrastructure
Phase 2: Operation and Maintenance (30 years)
PPP Contract signing expected by Jul 2020
Consortium’s Members
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Transportation Update U-Tapao International Airport - BBS JV as the best bidder
Consortium’s Members
Location Plub Pla ,Ban Chang District,
Rayong Province
Land Area Approx. 1,600 Rai
Contract Type PPP Net Cost
Contract Term 50 Years
Authority Royal Thai Navy
Total Project
Cost THB 27bn (phase 1)
Sources of Fund Debt 70 : Equity 30
20
Project Details
45%
35%
20%
3 Years 47 Years
Design &
Build
Operation and
Maintenance
BBS JV
2
3
4
1
5
6
7
PPP Project Scope
1. Passenger Terminal Building 3
2. Commercial Gateway
3. Cargo Village as a Free Zone
4. Cargo Complex
5. Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul
Facilities
6. Aviation Training Center
7. Passenger Terminal Building 1 & 2
Timeline
Source: Company Data and Market Sounding
21 March 2019
Bidding
submission
30 January 2020
BBS JV was announced
as the best bid winner
October 2018
RFP selling period
Package Inclusion:
Package Exclusion:
(42 companies bought U-Tapao RFP)
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
June 2020
Expected contract
signing
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
Western Orange
Eastern Orange
Eastern Orange
Western Orange
Mass Transit Update Orange Line – project at a glance
21
Underground Stations
Elevated Stations
ORANGE LINE (35.9KM, 28 STATIONS)
CAPEX Civil ~THB 111bn*
E&M ~THB 32bn
Route
Length
No. of
Stations
Taling Chan –
Thailand Cultural
Center
13.4km
11 (underground)
Route
Length
No. of
Stations
Thailand Cultural
Center - Min Buri
22.5km
17 (10 underground and
7 aboveground)
* Western Orange civil works and land
exploration CAPEX
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
EXPECTED TIMELINE
2023
Targeted Commercial
Operation Date for
Eastern Orange
MAY 2017
Civil work construction of
Eastern Orange began
Jun 2020
Expected request for
proposal (RFP) for Civil
work construction of
Western Orange & E&M,
available for sale
28 JAN 2020
Cabinet approved the
project
2026
Targeted Commercial
Operation Date for
Western Orange
Sep 2020
Expected bid submission
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BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Update Share of Income / (Loss) from Investments in JV & Associates
(THB mn)
(THB mn) FY 2019/20 FY 2018/19
Share of income/ (loss) from investments in
joint ventures (140) (406)
Bayswater (34) (267)
Rabbit Line Pay (111) (143)
Chefman (22) (35)
SPV AEON-Rabbit 41 37
Media’s JV (15) 3
Share of income/ (loss) from investments in
associates 2,212 957
BTSGIF 848 898
CPX (1) 0
Media’s associates
Kerry 268 169
Aero (46) (27)
DEMO 27 (2)
Others and VGIM’s Associates (114) (57)
Ads Chaopraya (10) 0
MACO (Discontinued Operation) 87 58
U City 1,152 (80)
Total 2,072 552
FY 2019/20 SHARE OF NET PROFIT/ (LOSS) BREAKDOWN BY BU
(THB mn)
22
847
127
1,118
(22)
2,072
Mass Transit Media Property Services Total
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL
BTS Group Update BTS-W5 Term Sheets
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
23
BTS-W5 TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Ticker BTS-W5
Term 1 year from the issuance date
Issuance date 17 February 2020
Expiry date 16 February 2021
Warrants price nil
No. of warrants 1,315,385,979 units
Allocation To existing shareholders at the ratio of 10 existing BTS shares : 1 BTS-W5
Exercise ratio 1 BTS-W5 to 1 new common share of BTS
Exercise price THB 14 per share
Expected maximum proceeds THB 18.4bn
Exercise period Quarterly
prepared by Investor Relations department
BTS Group Holdings PCL 24
FY 2020/21 Mass Transit Guidance
THB bn 20
Pink & Yellow Lines
Construction
THB bn 6
Mass-transit related
interest income
THB bn 2.6
E&M provision and
train procurement for
Green Line extensions
Train O&M
revenue
THB bn 5.2
Mass Transit CAPEX
THB bn 26
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
40% YoY
BTS Group Earnings Presentation
Section 3: Appendices
BTSGIF Earnings Presentation 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020
11 Jun 2020
SET Opportunity Day
Disclaimer
This is not prospectus of BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF” or “the Fund”). Investment in the Funds contains certain risk. Before investing, please carefully study the prospectus of the Funds. An investment in investment units shall not be deemed as deposit of money. The unitholders may receive an amount of any return that is more or less than the initial amount invested. Furthermore, the Fund has intention to invest in infrastructure projects which is a long-term investment; as a consequence, the investors ought to be aware of its risks from and returns on investment in investment units. This Fund invests in the future net farebox revenue from the Core BTS SkyTrain System. Its value may decrease along with elapse of the concession term, thus decreasing the value of the investment units accordingly. The unitholders will receive return of initial investment in the form of dividend and capital reduction. Once the term expires according to the Net Revenue Purchase and Transfer Agreement that the Fund has invested in, the value of the investment units may decrease to Baht zero. This document has been prepared solely for the information purpose. The information contained herein is general and does not constitute advice or opinion, and should not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. None of this information in this document constitutes an offer to treat, buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy. Third parties cannot derive any rights from this document. While particular attention has been paid to the contents of this document, no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given to the accuracy, correctness or completeness thereof. Any information given in this document may be subject to change or update without notice. No liability (such as, but not limited to, direct, consequential, special, punitive or indirect damages) will be accepted for any loss sustained by readers as a result of using this document or basing decisions on it. Please note that the investment is not a deposit of money and may be subject to certain risks. The value of your investment may rise or fall and also past performance is not insisting of future performance and shall in no event be deemed as such. For more information relating to the Fund, please visit www.btsgif.com or www.bblam.co.th
2 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Page
I. Financial Highlights 4
II. Core Network Performance 10
III. Distribution Summary 13
IV. Business Update 16
Appendix 22
Contents
3 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
4
4Q 19/20 Income Statement
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Financial Highlights
Unit (THB mn) 4Q 19/20 4Q 18/19 % YoY 3Q 19/20 % QoQ
Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 6) 978.4 987.1 (0.9)% 1,270.0 (23.0)%
Interest income 3.9 5.0 (21.8)% 5.0 (22.0)%
Total Income 982.3 992.1 (1.0)% 1,275.0 (23.0)%
Fund management fee and expenses 17.0 21.6 (21.6)% 17.8 (4.4)%
Other expenses 2.8 (9.4) 129.9% 0.5 416.4%
Total Expenses 19.8 12.2 61.3% 18.3 8.1%
Net Investment Income 962.5 979.9 (1.8)% 1,256.7 (23.4)%
Total net losses on valuation of investments (5,907.4) (5,300.1) 11.5% (208.0) 2,739.6%
Changes in Net Assets resulting from Operations (4,944.9) (4,320.2) (14.5)% 1,048.7 (571.5)%
Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.0% 98.8% 98.6%
THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit
Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend if the fund has sufficient retained
earnings) (4,945.0) (0.854) (4,320.2) (0.746) (14.5)% 1,048.7 0.181 (571.5)%
Add back excess liquidity from loss on valuation of investments *
5,890.0 1.017 5,300.0 0.915 11.1% 200.0 0.034 2,845.0%
Total distribution available to unitholders 945.0 0.163 979.8 0.169 (3.6)% 1,248.7 0.215 (24.3)%
* Net from investment cost for Suksa Wittaya station of THB 17.6mn in 4Q 19/20 and 7.9mn in 3Q 19/20.
In 4Q 19/20, BTSGIF recognised a loss from valuation of investment of THB 5,907.4mn primarily from the devaluation in the fair value of its investment in NRTA of THB 5,890.0mn (non-cash expense), following the Fund’s reappraisal (significant impact of COVID-19). The new fair value of investment in NRTA, hence, decreased to THB 52,410mn from THB 58,300mn in the previous quarter.
The appraisal value decreased from the previous report due to COVID-19 impact and updated various factors, the key changes were i) COVID-19 impact on net farebox revenue in FY 20/21 ii) lower economic growth rate and inflation rate iii) a delay in the implementation of the dual track station iv) delay of the opening of various train lines.
5
FY 19/20 Income Statement
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Financial Highlights
Unit (THB mn) FY 19/20 FY 18/19 % YoY
Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 7) 4,798.4 4,603.0 4.2%
Interest income 20.3 17.7 15.3%
Total Income 4,818.7 4,620.7 4.3%
Fund management fee and expenses 74.0 84.8 (12.7)%
Other expenses 14.7 10.5 40.2%
Total Expenses 88.7 95.3 (6.9)%
Net Investment Income 4,730.0 4,525.4 4.5%
Total net losses on valuation of investments (6,729.8) (6,300.0) 6.8%
Changes in Net Assets resulting from Operations (1,999.8) (1,774.6) (12.7)%
Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.2% 97.9%
THB/Unit THB/Unit
Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend if the fund has sufficient retained earnings)
(1,999.8) (0.345) (1,774.6) (0.306) (12.7)%
Add back excess liquidity from loss on valuation of investments * 6,690.0 1.155 6,300.0 1.088 6.2%
Total distribution available to unitholders 4,690.2 0.810 4,525.4 0.781 3.6%
* Net from investment cost for Suksa Wittaya station of THB 40.0mn in FY 19/20
6 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Financial Highlights
4Q 19/20 income from investment in NRTA
Unit (THB mn) 4Q 19/20 4Q 18/19 Change
(YoY) % YoY 3Q 19/20
Change
(QoQ) % QoQ
Farebox revenues 1,457.5 1,768.8 (311.3) (17.6)% 1,815.8 (358.3) (19.7)%
Total operating and maintenance costs 479.1 781.7 (302.6) (38.7)% 545.8 (66.7) (12.2)%
Employees expenses 147.9 152.3 (4.4) (2.9)% 211.8 (63.9) (30.2)%
Maintenance costs 141.2 130.8 10.4 7.9% 110.7 30.5 27.6%
Utilities expenses 90.8 94.2 (3.4) (3.6)% 92.4 (1.6) (1.7)%
Property insurance premium 17.2 21.4 (4.2) (19.6)% 0.0 17.2 100.0%
Selling expenses 17.3 11.6 5.7 49.8% 18.0 (0.7) (3.7)%
Administrative and other expenses 25.4 32.2 (6.8) (21.2)% 20.1 5.3 26.1%
Capital expenditures 39.3 339.2 (299.9) (88.4)% 92.8 (53.5) (57.6)%
Total income from investment in NRTA 978.4 987.1 (8.7) (0.9)% 1,270.0 (291.6) (23.0)%
Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 67.1% 55.8% 69.9%
FAREBOX REVENUE
Farebox revenue was THB 1,457.5mn, down 17.6% YoY and 19.7% QoQ. Due to the significant impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak since late January 2020, ridership this quarter dropped by 17.5% YoY and 19.9% QoQ to 50.4 mn trips. And average fare decreased 0.2% YoY from the higher proportion of monthly pass tickets in this quarter (note that monthly pass tickets generate cheaper average fare compared to other types of tickets) but increasing 0.2% QoQ from free trips for the Royal Coronation Ceremony of King Rama X in last quarter.
O&M COSTS
O&M costs were THB 479.1mn, down 38.7% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.
YoY decrease was from (i) lower CAPEX (mainly from radio upgrade of THB 22.4mn and rolling stocks of THB 1.9mn compared to AFC upgrade of THB 225.4mn, rolling stocks of THB 69.0mn and radio upgrade of THB 29.4mn last year), (ii) lower administrative and other expenses (mainly the decrease in environmental testing fee and lower ticket expenses) being partially offset by (iii) higher maintenance costs from maintenance contracts for new rolling stocks and costs of additional mileage exceeding service km specified in the contract.
QoQ decrease was led by (i) bonus paid to employees last quarter, (ii) lower CAPEX (AFC upgrade of THB 31.5mn, rolling stocks of THB 22.2mn and radio upgrade of THB 19.8mn last quarter), but partially offset by (iii) higher maintenance costs from additional mileage paid in the 4th quarter, space renovation to set up the TVM and higher lift and escalator maintenance costs and (iv) higher property insurance premium being paid in every 4th quarter.
7 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Financial Highlights
FY 19/20 income from investment in NRTA
Unit (THB mn) FY 19/20 FY 18/19 Change
(YoY) % YoY
Farebox revenues 6,814.2 6,962.5 (148.3) (2.1)%
Total operating and maintenance costs 2,015.8 2,359.5 (343.7) (14.6)%
Employees expenses 693.0 785.5 (92.5) (11.8)%
Maintenance costs 466.0 467.6 (1.6) (0.3)%
Utilities expenses 372.9 384.2 (11.3) (3.0)%
Property insurance premium 17.3 21.5 (4.2) (19.5)%
Selling expenses 71.5 77.8 (6.3) (8.2)%
Administrative and other expenses 90.8 114.8 (24.0) (20.9)%
Capital expenditures 304.3 508.1 (203.8) (40.1)%
Total income from investment in NRTA 4,798.4 4,603.0 195.4 4.2%
Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 70.4% 66.1%
FAREBOX REVENUE
Farebox revenue was THB 6,814.2mn, down 2.1% YoY from
i) ridership drop by 1.7% YoY to 236.9 mn trips due to the significant impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak since late January 2020 and
ii) average fare drop by 0.4% YoY due to free trips during the Royal Coronation Ceremony of King Rama X on 5-6 May and 12 Dec 2019, a total of 2.1mn trips (but this is partially offset by free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption last year)
O&M COSTS
O&M costs were THB 2,015.8mn, decreasing 14.6% YoY primarily from
i) lower CAPEX (rolling stocks of THB 161.4mn, radio upgrade of THB 42.2mn and AFC upgrade of THB 31.5mn compared to AFC upgrade of THB 269.9mn, radio upgrade of THB 100.5mn and rolling stocks of THB 84.5mn last year) and
ii) lower employee expenses from lower allocation costs from the opening of new green line extensions
1 In FY 18/19, farebox revenue was after deducting net free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption of THB 18.5mn.
1
8 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Financial Highlights
Balance Sheet
(Unit: THB mn) 31 Mar 2020 31 Dec 2019 31 Mar 2019
Investment in NRTA
at cost 52,410.0
61,472.2
58,300.0
61,454.6
59,100.0
61,432.1
Investment in Securities at fair value
and Cash at bank 997.5 1,156.5 1,173.5
Other Assets 54.1 169.8 4.9
Total Assets 53,461.6 59,626.3 60,278.4
Total Liabilities 53.6 28.9 159.1
Net Asset Value 53,408.0 59,597.4 60,119.3
Capital Received from Unitholders 58,348.8 55,545.6 61,416.5
Retained Earnings (Deficits) (4,940.8) 1,051.8 (1,297.2)
NAV per Unit (THB) 9.2273 10.2967 10.3868
As of 31 Mar 2020, total assets stood at THB 53,461.6mn.
The main components were
- Investment in the NRTA of THB 52,410.0mn, decreased by THB 5,890.0mn from 31 Dec 2019
- Investment in securities at fair value and cash at bank of THB 997.5mn
- Other assets of THB 54.1mn (primarily account receivable from NRTA of THB 50.0mn)
Total liabilities stood at THB 53.6mn (no interest bearing debt), primarily accrued withholding tax of THB 25.2mn and other payables and accrued expenses, not yet due, of THB 24.8mn. Net Asset Value (NAV) as of 31 Mar 2020 was THB 53,408.0mn, equivalent to THB 9.2273 per unit.
Page
I. Financial Highlights 4
II. Core Network Performance 10
III. Distribution Summary 13
IV. Business Update 16
Appendix 22
Contents
9 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
10 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Core Network Performance
4Q 19/20 Core Network Performance
Quarterly ridership : 50.4mn trips in 4Q 19/20
Due to the impact of COVID-19 since late January 2020, ridership
declined by 17.5% YoY and 19.9% QoQ.
The government has issued notifications forcing temporary closure of
various businesses. Additionally, the government requested for
people’s cooperation to stay at home and work from home in order
to control the spread of infection, causing the decrease in BTS
SkyTrain ridership in this quarter.
4Q 19/20
Ridership 50.4mn trips, -17.5% YoY, -19.9% QoQ
Average fare (excluding extra events)
THB 28.9/trip, -0.2% YoY, -1.3% QoQ
Average fare (including extra events)
THB 28.9/trip, -0.2% YoY, +0.2% QoQ
Average weekday ridership 630,658 trips, -16.8% YoY, -18.6% QoQ
QUARTERLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH QUARTERLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH
61.1 59.6 63.9 63.0
50.4
-0.8% -2.4%
7.2%
-1.5%
-19.9%
1.5% 4.4%
4.4%
2.2%
-17.5%
4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q 19/20
Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (% QoQ) Ridership Growth (% YoY)
29.0 29.1* 28.8 29.3* 28.9
-0.4%
0.4%
-0.9%
1.7%
-1.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.2%
4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q 19/20
Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (% QoQ) Average Fare Growth (% YoY)
EXPLANATION SUMMARY
* Average fares above were calculated before extraordinary events for comparison purpose.
11 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Core Network Performance
FY 19/20 Core Network Performance
Note: Average fares above were calculated before extraordinary events for comparison purpose.
FY 19/20 Ridership: decreased from the COVID-19 impact since late January 2020
although during the first 9 months, ridership continued to grow from
the opening of the new green line extensions: Southern line from
Samrong station to Khe Ha station in Dec 2018 and Northern line
from Mo Chit station to Ha Yaek Lat Phrao station in Aug 2019 and
to Kasetsart university station in Dec 2019.
Average fare: THB 29.0 / trip, increasing by 0.2% YoY
FY 19/20
Ridership 236.9mn trips, -1.7% YoY
Average fare (excluding impact of free-trip this year and allowance last year)
THB 29.0/trip, +0.2% YoY
Average fare (including all impacts) THB 28.8/trip, -0.4% YoY
Average weekday ridership 735,385 trips, -1.2% YoY
YEARLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH YEARLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH
EXPLANATION SUMMARY
27.5 28.0
28.3 29.0 29.0
2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 2.2% 0.2%
FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (%YoY)
232.5
238.0 241.2 241.0
236.9
6.3%
2.4% 1.3%
-0.1% -1.7%
FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (%YoY)
Page
I. Financial Highlights 4
II. Core Network Performance 10
III. Distribution Summary 13
IV. Business Update 16
Appendix 22
Contents
12 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
13 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Distribution Summary
Historical Distribution
FY Period No. Dividend Payment (THB per unit)
No.
Capital Return (THB per unit)
Total (THB per unit)
13/14 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2014 1-4 0.579 - - 0.579
14/15 1 Apr 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 5-8 0.606 1-2* 0.125 0.731
15/16 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 9-12 0.692 3 0.064 0.756
16/17 1 Apr 2016 – 31 Mar 2017 13-16 0.772 - - 0.772
17/18 1 Apr 2017 – 31 Mar 2018 17-20 0.798 - - 0.798
18/19 1 Apr 2018 – 31 Mar 2019 21-23 0.611 4 0.169 0.780
1Q 19/20 1 Apr 2019 – 30 Jun 2019 - - 5 0.204 0.204
2Q 19/20 1 Jul 2019 – 30 Sep 2019 24 0.103 6 0.123 0.226
3Q 19/20 1 Oct 2019 – 31 Dec 2019 25 0.181 7 0.034 0.215
4Q 19/20 1 Jan 2020 – 31 Mar 2020 - - 8 0.130 0.130
Total 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2020 1-25 4.342 1-8 0.849 5.191
* Payout from FY13/14 – 14/15 performances
Timetable of the 8th capital return
XN Date Book Closure Date Payment Date
11 Jun 20 15 Jun 20 29 Jun 20
14 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Distribution Summary
Distribution Summary
1 Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF
Dividend Payment: Payout of not less than 90% of adjusted net profit1 p.a. and retained earnings (quarterly payment) , and prohibit to pay dividend if the fund had retained deficit. Capital Return: The Fund has excess liquidity (cash from amortisation of fund issuance costs and loss on valuation of investment (non-cash expense)) and reduce its registered capital
DISTRIBUTION
Distribution to unitholders (THB 0.775/unit in FY19/20, and THB 0.780/unit in FY18/19)
Unit : THB/unit
* Payout from FY13/14 – 14/15 performances
*
0.000 0.125 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.169
0.491
0.579
0.606 0.692 0.772 0.798 0.611 0.284 0.579
0.731 0.756 0.772 0.798 0.780 0.775
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Capital Return Dividend
Page
I. Financial Highlights 4
II. Core Network Performance 10
III. Distribution Summary 13
IV. Business Update 16
Appendix 22
Contents
15 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Business update
Loss on Valuation of Investments and Impact
16
Reappraisal (as significant change)
Loss on valuation of investment in NRTA
Retained Deficit (as of Mar 20)
The Fund has excess cash, yet, unable to pay a dividend from 4Q 19/20 performances
But being paid as CAPITAL RETURN
IMPACT FROM THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK
Dividend 2Q-3Q THB 0.284
Capital return 1Q – 4Q THB 0.491
Total FY 19/20 Distribution THB 0.775
• As per SEC, reappraisal of the Fund’s investment1 must be done every 3 years or when having any significant change. • During 4Q 19/20, “Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak” impacted significantly to the “Net Farebox Revenue”, causing
the Fund’s reappraisal. • In 4Q 19/20, there was a loss on valuation of investment of THB 5.9bn (non-cash expense)
1 Under normal circumstances, the Fund intends to reappraise its assets every 2 years.
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Business update
Changes of Key Factors in Valuation Reports
17
KEY FACTOR PREVIOUS REPORT (as of MAR 16)
PREVIOUS REPORT (as of MAR 19)
CURRENT REPORT (as of MAR 20)
1. COVID-19 • No COVID-19 • No COVID-19 • Impact from COVID-19
2. Lower economic growth rate • 4.0% in 2019 - 2026 • 4.0% in 2027 onwards
• 4.0% for 2019-2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards
• 2.4% for 2019 (2.0)% for 2020 4.5% for 2021
• 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards
3. Lower inflation rate 3% 2.5% 2.25%
4. Integrated fare structure of MRTA lines (one-time boarding fee)
No fare integration (boarding fee in each MRT line)
Fare integration; Blue, Purple, Orange (one-time boarding fee)
Fare integration; Blue, Purple, Orange (one-time boarding fee) (unchanged from Mar 19)
5. Delay in the implementation of dual track & the impact of closure of Saphan Taksin station
Expected dual track implementation in 2021
Closure 2 years and expected dual track implementation in 2022
Closure 2 years and expected dual track implementation in 2023
6. Moving the van terminal at Victory Monument
Having van terminal at Victory Monument
Moving van terminal at Victory Monument
Moving van terminal at Victory Monument (unchanged from Mar 19)
7. Delay of the opening of Green Line Extension
• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2019 • National Stadium - Yodsay
in 2021
• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2022
• No National Stadium - Yodsay
• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2024
• No National Stadium - Yodsay
8. Delay of Suksa Wittaya station 2017 2020 2021
Valuation decrease - 4Q 18/19 = THB 5.3bn 4Q 19/20 = THB 5.9bn
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Business update
Key Factors to a Decrease in Valuation
18
KEY FACTOR PREVIOUS REPORT MAR 19 (as of DEC 19)
CURRENT REPORT (MAR 20)
CHANGE
1. COVID-19 Impact for FY20/21
• No COVID-19 • Impact from COVID-19 THB (3.1)bn (or 50% of total decrease)
2. Shortened concession period per quarter
THB (200)mn THB (300)mn THB (100)mn
3. Lower economic growth rate GDP Impact on ridership growth (CAGR from FY18/19A – FY29/30)
• 4.0% for 2019-2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards Ridership CAGR = 3.9%
• 2.4% for 2019 • (2.0)% for 2020 • 4.5% for 2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards Ridership CAGR = 3.5%
• (1.6)% for 2019 • (6.0)% for 2020 • +0.5% for 2021 Decrease 0.4% p.a.
4. Lower inflation rate p.a. (CPI) Impact on average fare (CAGR from FY18/19A – FY29/30)
2.5% Fare CAGR = 3.1%
2.25% Fare CAGR = 2.5%
(0.25)% Decrease 0.6% p.a.
5. Delay in the implementation of dual track and the impact of closure of Saphan Taksin station
Closure 2 years and expected dual track implementation in 2022
Closure 2 years and expected dual track implementation in 2023
Delay 1 year (ridership drop ~2% in one year)
6. Delay of the opening of Green Line Bang Wa - Taling Chan
2022 2024 Delay 2 years
Valuation decrease 3Q 19/20 = THB (0.2)bn 4Q 19/20 = THB (5.9)bn THB (5.7)bn
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BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Business update
Key Factors to a Decrease in Valuation
19
Expenses, 15% THB 0.8bn
Shortened concession,
5% or THB 0.3bn
Revenue, 50% THB 3.1bn
Revenue, 30% THB 1.7bn
From the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak Valuation decrease of THB 3.1bn or 50% of THB 5.9bn Note: Impacted to FY20/21 farebox revenue)
From the impact of changes in forecasted GDP and Inflation in FY 21/22 to FY 29/30 • GDP impact on ridership: A decrease of 0.4% p.a. • Inflation impact on fare: A decrease of 0.6% p.a. Resulting to a decrease in net farebox revenue of 1.0% p.a.
Valuation as of 31 Mar 2020 was THB 52.4bn, decreasing from THB 58.3bn as of 31 Dec 2019. A decrease of THB 5.9bn was from
1. A decrease in revenue : THB 4.8bn (80%)
2. An increase in expense: THB 0.8bn (15%)
3. Shortened concession period impact: THB 0.3bn (5%)
Components of a change in valuation of THB 5.9bn
From shortened concession period Valuation decrease of THB 0.3bn or 5% of THB 5.9bn
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Business update
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4)
Winner announcement with final price
• 570m from Surasak station (S5) and 610m from Chong Nonsi station (S3)
• Side platform station similar to S3 and S5 with
typical stairs and escalator • Total investment cost ~THB 650mn
• The Fund will provide 50% of the investment cost, using existing cash
Project details Tentative timeline
15 Oct 2015 BMA Approval
Submission of bidding document Jan 2016
Trustee Approval Jun 2016
Signed construction contract Aug 2016
Construction finish
S4 Operation
3 months
2 months
18 months
2.5 months
Additional FY 2021/22E (first operating year)
Ridership ~10,600 trips / weekday
Gross farebox revenue ~THB 119mn p.a.
Net farebox revenue ~THB 90mn p.a.
Apr 2016
2 months
BMA Approval and started construction
Sep 2019
36 months
1Q 2021
20
Progress of the construction work as of Mar 2020
Plan Actual Early/Delay
41.0% 36.4% -4.6%
21 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Page
I. Financial Highlights 4
II. Core Network Performance 10
III. Distribution Summary 13
IV. Business Update 16
Appendix 22
Contents
22
BTSGIF Appendix: Invest in 23.5km of BTS Core Network, 9 years concession remaining
Fund Name BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF”)
Sponsors BTS Group Holdings PCL (“BTSG”) and Bangkok Mass Transit System PCL (“BTSC”)
Fund Management Company
BBL Asset Management Co., Ltd. (“BBLAM”)
Fund Supervisor Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) Pcl. (“SCBT”)
Initial Asset • Future net farebox revenue (Farebox revenue less related operating cost and CAPEX) from the Core BTS SkyTrain system (23.5km)
• Concession period ending 4 December 2029 (approximately 9 years remaining)
• Investment cost : THB 61,399mn • American Appraisal appraisal value: THB 61,000mn (Discount rate 9.0%) • fnAsia appraisal value: THB 59,400mn (Discount
rate 8.8%)(1)
Total Investment Units 5,788mn investment units
Par Value THB 10.8 per investment unit (THB 10.081 per investment unit as of Mar 2020)
Registered Capital THB 62,510.4mn; THB 58,348.8mn as of Mar 2020
Lock-up Arrangement Lock-up of BTSG’s 33.3% holding of BTSGIF units for 10 years from FY 13/14 to FY 22/23
(1) Discount cash flow without adjusting Mid-Year Convention
DARK GREEN MO CHIT – ON NUT 17.0km
LIGHT GREEN NATIONAL STADIUM - SAPHAN TAKSIN 6.5km
• 30-year concession (ending 4 Dec 2029) to exclusively collect ridership fare (and bear related expenses and capital expenditure)
• 23 stations over 23.5km located at CBD area of Bangkok • All investments made by BTSC: Including civil works, E&M and trains
(except land acquisition) • No revenue sharing or concession fees to BMA
Fund summary Initial asset: Core BTS SkyTrain system (until 2029)
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
BTSGIF at a Glance
23
THB
62.5bn
Raised from IPO
Concession expiry in 2029
≈9 years
remaining
Annual ridership in core network
(FY 19/20)
≈ 237mn trips
(735,385 trips / Weekday )
8.6%
CAGR
of Farebox revenue (19 yrs since inception)
of Core BTS SkyTrain (FY 19/20)
70.4%
EBITDA margin
Annual payout (FY 19/20)
BTSGIF is the first Infrastructure Fund in Thailand Invest in the 23.5km of BTS Core Network with 9 years concession remaining Position to benefit from passenger growth, fare increase and operating
leverage on Core Network Seek for new opportunities from mass transit infrastructure projects with
strong cash flow potential
Stock code BTSGIF
Outstanding shares (mn) 5,788
Market capitalisation (THB mn)* 42,542
Market capitalisation (USD mn)* 1,336
Closing price* 7.35
BTSGIF Stock information
*as of 29 May 2020
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
BTSGIF at a Glance
BTSGIF Appendix: BTSGIF at a glance
THB 0.775
Per unit
24
BTSGIF Core Ridership and Fare Appendix: FY 19/20 Ridership was 237mn trips and average fare was THB 29.0 per trip*
CAGR Ridership
(FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
3.5%
CAGR Fare
(FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
2.5%
CAGR FB Revenue
(FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
6.0%
CAGR Net FB Revenue
(FY 18/19 – FY 29/30)
7.7%
CAGR since IPO (2013/14)
ds
Ridership +1.7%
Farebox Revenue +3.1%
CAGR since Inception (2000/01)
Ridership
+7.6%
Farebox Revenue +8.6%
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Core Ridership and Fare
* Average fare were calculated before extraordinary events for comparison purpose.
215 219
233 238
241 241 237
26.4 26.9
27.5 28.0
28.3 29.0 29.0
22.5
23.5
24.5
25.5
26.5
27.5
28.5
29.5
190192194196198200202204206208210212214216218220222224226228230232234236238240242244246248250252254256258260
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Core BTS SkyTrain Ridership (mn trips) Fare (THB per trip)*
3,353 3,520 4,021
4,483 4,622 4,525 4,730
5.0%
14.2% 11.5%
3.1%
-2.1%
4.5%
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Net investment income Net investment income Growth (%YoY)
25
BTSGIF Performance Summary Appendix: Key financial highlights
THB mn THB mn
THB mn THB mn
FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 **Total distribution available to unitholders comprises dividend and capital return (paid from excess cash of fund)
Revenue (gross farebox revenue) Income from investment in NRTA
Net investment income* Total distribution available to unitholders**
FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014
FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014
*Income from investment in NRTA less fund expenses
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Performance Summary
5,470 5,874 6,397 6,636 6,821 6,962 6,814
7.4% 8.9% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1%
-2.1%
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Farebox revenue Farebox revenue Growth (%YoY)
3,774 3,957 4,475 4,576 4,696 4,603 4,798
4.9%
13.1%
2.2% 2.6%
-2.0%
4.2%
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Income from investment in NRTA (EBITDA)Income from investment in NRTA (EBITDA) Growth (%YoY)
3,707 3,890 4,392 4,499 4,622 4,525 4,690
4.9%
12.9%
2.4% 2.7% -2.1%
3.6%
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20
Total distribution available to unitholdersTotal distribution available to unitholders Growth (%YoY)
11
2.2
26
BTSGIF Appendix: Forecasted Ridership until FY 29/30
Projected ridership
CAGR Ridership
(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)
3.5%
CAGR Fare
(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)
2.5%
CAGR FB Revenue
(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)
6.0%
CAGR Net FB Revenue
(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)
7.7%
Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand), except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY 13/14A, ridership was for the full year of FY 13/14. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), ridership growth was prorated to the full year.
Actual ridership
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Forecast of Ridership until FY 29/30
21
4.7
21
8.7
23
2.5
23
8.0
24
1.2
24
1.0
23
6.9
16
9.9
26
4.4
27
2.9
29
2.0
29
9.9
31
2.8
31
4.2
33
1.0
34
1.3
23
7.9
1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3% -0.1% -1.7%
-28.3%
55.6%
3.2% 7.0% 2.7% 4.3% 0.4% 5.3% 3.1% 2.6%
Forecasted ridership Ridership growth (%YoY)
4,2
50
Actual farebox revenue
27
BTSGIF Appendix: Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30
Projected farebox revenue derived from valuation report
Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand), except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY 13/14A, farebox revenue was for the full year of FY 13/14. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), farebox revenue growth was prorated to the full year.
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30
5,6
77
5,8
74
6,3
97
6,6
36
6,8
21
6,9
62
6,8
14
4,9
45
8,1
31
8,7
61
9,4
52
10
,20
4
10
,77
9
11
,31
7
11
,87
9
12
,82
3
9,0
08
3.5% 8.9% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1%
-2.1% -27.4%
64.4%
7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 7.9% 3.4%
Forecasted farebox revenue Farebox revenue growth (%YoY)
3,3
53
28
BTSGIF Appendix: Projected Net Cashflow until FY 29/30
Actual net cashflow
Note: Net cashflow has deducted additional investment costs for the construction and improvement of S4 and S6 stations. These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand) and Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd., except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), net cashflow growth was prorated to the full year.
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Forecast of Net Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30
Projected net cashflow derived from valuation report
3,7
74
3,9
57
4,4
75
4,5
43
4,6
96
4,6
03
4,7
58
2,7
19
5,5
77
6,0
57
6,8
77
7,5
81
8,0
79
8,6
20
9,2
01
10
,08
5
7,1
06
4.9% 13.1% 1.5% 3.4% -2.0% 3.4%
-42.9%
105.1%
8.6% 13.5% 10.2% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 9.6% 3.7%
Forecasted net cashflow Net cashflow growth (%YoY)
29
BTSGIF Appendix: Costs and additional investment projection
Key costs guidance
Costs and Additional Investment Projection
Sources: Estimated based on valuation report from C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd.’s report and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except for FY 20/21 was based on BTSC.
Unit: THB mn
*Maintenance expenses mainly composed of Siemens lump-sum contracts for current and new coming 3 trains, expected THB 443mn p.a. (avg on a smooth basis) and the non-Siemens lump-sum contract (in-house P&C maintenance).
Source: Estimated base on Infra Asia forecast and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except FY 20/21 total costs were based on BTSC.
Normalised guidance p.a. (THB mn) from FY 20/21 to FY 28/29 (9 years)
% of total
OPEX 2,360 90%
Maintenance expenses* 839 32% Staff cost 742 28% Utilities expense 514 20% Others 265 10%
CAPEX 178 7%
Others 177 7%
Rolling stocks 1 0%
Additional Investment 72 3%
Total costs and additional investment 2,610 100%
BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
Costs and Additional Investment Projection
33 40 282 130 210 30 - - - - - - - - - 251 150 251 150 84
161
- 75 207 220 83 171 207 220
83 171 424 143 130 185 169 162
164 162 209 225 196 119
1,6
20
1,7
10
1,7
02
1,7
27
1,8
04
1,7
10
1,7
02
1,7
27
1,8
04
1,8
51
1,7
12
1,8
14
2,2
38
2,3
25
2,3
83
2,4
59
2,5
39
2,4
88
2,4
54
2,5
42
1,7
82
1,696 1,917 1,922 2,093 2,125
1,917 1,922 2,093 2,125
2,359 2,056
2,226 2,553 2,704 2,576 2,623 2,701 2,697 2,678 2,738
1,901
OPEX CAPEX (others) CAPEX (rolling stocks) Additional Investment
30 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation
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