fx strat 7 12 2015 prb · rebound and expect the broader downtrend to resume. the key resistance...

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes

only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation,

co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into

account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment

1

fx strategy The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function fx | 7 December 2015

For Malaysia circulation only

The ECB disappoints the market

• The EUR rose sharply against the USD after the ECB’s announcement of additional stimulus failed to meet markets expectations. However, the USD pared losses after a better than expected US employment report.

• In the week ahead, US retail sales, Euro area GDP and China inflation data are key economic data points. The BOE and RBNZ policy meeting is likely to be key for the GBP and NZD respectively. The Fed meets on December 16

th.

Please note this is the last FX Strategy publication this year. We wish our readers a very happy festive season and look forward to resuming this publication in January.

EUR/USD

• We remain bearish on EUR/USD; a break below key support reinforces the downtrend.

USD/JPY

• We remain neutral on USD/JPY as the technical setup appears mixed.

AUD/USD

• We turn bearish on AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) as technical signals favour further downside.

USD/SGD

• We turn neutral on USD/SGD (from bullish earlier) as momentum seems to be gradually fading.

GBP/USD

• We remain neutral on GBP/USD as the pair remains rangebound.

USD/MYR

• We remain neutral on USD/MYR and expect the pair to remain range-bound.

XAU/USD

• We turn bearish on XAU/USD (from neutral earlier) as technical signals are starting to turn negative.

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Secondary Sup Primary Sup Spot Primary Res Secondary Res

EUR/USD Bearish 1.020 1.050 1.086 1.110 1.140 USD/JPY Neutral 120.00 122.00 123.29 124.50 128.00 AUD/USD Bearish 0.680 0.700 0.733 0.735 0.750 USD/SGD Bullish 1.366 1.390 1.400 1.435 1.460 GBP/USD Neutral 1.480 1.500 1.501 1.532 1.550

USD/MYR Neutral 4.000 4.095 4.200 4.287 4.400

XAU/USD Bearish 1000 1040 1085 1120 1160 USD/CNH* Neutral 6.300 6.350 6.457 6.500 6.600 USD/ZAR* Neutral 12.850 13.400 14.370 14.400 15.000 NZD/USD* Bearish 0.618 0.645 0.669 0.680 0.700 USD/CHF* Bullish 0.940 0.972 0.998 1.020 1.040 USD/SEK* Neutral 8.055 8.275 8.496 8.860 8.880 USD/CAD* Bullish 1.280 1.300 1.339 1.340 1.365

*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs

Contents

The ECB disappoints the market 1

EUR/USD 2

USD/JPY 3

AUD/USD 4

USD/SGD 5

GBP/USD 6

USD/MYR 7

XAU/USD (Gold) 8

SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS 9

Interest Rate Differentials 11

FX Implied Volatility 11

Disclosure Appendix 13

Weekly performance of pairs

27 November 2015 to 4 December 2015

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist

Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy

Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy

Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation

Arun Kelshiker, CFA Exec. Director, Asset Allocation

Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Portfolio Solutions

Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist

Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist

Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist

2.74

0.51

-1.09

2.03

0.25

2.72

-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

XAU/USD

GBP/USD

USD/SGD

AUD/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

%

fx strategy | 7 December 2015

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

EUR/USD

We turn bearish on EUR/USD (from neutral earlier), anticipating the

recent surge to fizzle out ahead of a major resistance region.

Performance

• EUR/USD ended up (2.72%) over the previous week. The ECB

extended its asset-purchase programme by six months to March

2017 and also cut deposit rates by 10 bps to -0.30%. However,

this appeared to be a smaller move than market participants

hoped for.

• In the US, the unemployment rate held a 7.5-year low of 5%,

improving chances of a rate hike later this month. The trade

deficit unexpectedly widened in October as exports fell to a

three-year low. The services sector slowed in November.

Jobless claims were up but the trend remains consistent with

labour market strength.

Technical Analysis

• Major technical indicators are neutral.

• However, we turn bearish on EUR/USD (from neutral earlier).

The pair rebounded strongly in reaction to the market’s

disappointment by the ECB meeting outcome last week, which

likely fuelled a short squeeze. While technical indicators are

mixed, we believe the strong resistance region of 1.10-1.11 near

the intersection of the 50-100-200 DMAs is likely to provide a

considerable hurdle to further upside. We expect the pair to turn

lower from current levels.

• We would review our outlook if the pair moves above 1.110.

Key Signposts

• Euro area – Investor confidence (7 December), GDP, household

consumption, government expenditure and gross fixed capital (8

December).

• US – Small business optimism and job openings (8 December),

wholesale inventories and wholesale trade sales (9 December),

retail sales, PPI, business inventories and University of Michigan

consumer survey (10 December).

EUR/USD technical rebound likely limited

Technical Analysis Chart: EUR/USD (Daily)


1.050

1.110

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

EU

R/U

SD

EUR/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

Key technical indicators and forecast*

Technical Indicator Action

RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Neutral

MACD (12,26,9) Neutral

ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Neutral

Key Levels Level Importance

Secondary Resistance 1.140 High

Primary Resistance 1.110 Medium

Spot 1.086 –

Primary Support 1.050 High

Secondary Support 1.020 Medium

Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 1.08

Q1 2016 1.06

Q2 2016 1.05

Q3 2016 1.04

* Please see Appendix for explanation on technical


50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

1.097 1.1062 1.1034



USD/JPY

We remain neutral on USD/JPY amid mixed technical mixed signals.

Performance

• USD/JPY ended up (0.25%) over the previous week. Wages

rose for the fourth straight month in October on an annual and

inflation adjusted basis. Services activity expanded at a slightly

slower pace than the previous month. Capital spending rose at

11.2%, the fastest pace in eight years, in the July-September

period. Industrial output rose 1.4% in October from a month

before (which was below consensus). Retail sales rose 1.8% y/y,

which was more than the median market forecast.

Technical Analysis


• We remain neutral on USD/JPY. The pair appears to be showing

signs of hesitation around the previous highs of 124.5 thus,

giving mixed to neutral signals. As the current set-up is

unconvincing, we prefer to wait on the sidelines until it decisively

breaks above 124.5 or falls below 122.0 before re-initiating

directional views.

• We would review our outlook if the pair moves or slips back

below 122.0 or moves above 124.5.

Key Signposts

• GDP, current account and bank lending (8 December), machine

orders and machine tool orders (9 December), PPI (10

December).

USD/JPY signals turned neutral

Technical Analysis Chart: USD/JPY (Daily)


122.00

124.50

102

106

110

114

118

122

126

130


US

D/J

PY

USD/JPY 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Buy


ADX (14) Neutral



Secondary Resistance 128.00 Medium

Primary Resistance 124.50 High

Spot 123.29 –


Secondary Support 120.00 Medium

Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 125

Q1 2016 123

Q2 2016 124

Q3 2016 125




121.47 121.74 121.56



AUD/USD

We turn bearish on AUD/USD (from neutral earlier) as strong

resistance will likely limit further upside.

Performance

• AUD/USD ended up (2.03%) over the previous week. Retail

sales rose 0.5% in October. New vehicle sales rose 6.9% in

November, the third month of strong gains. Q3 GDP rose 0.9%

q/q and 2.5% y/y to exceed expectations, mainly led by

consumer spending and exports. The RBA left rates unchanged

this month but left room for future cuts. Private sector credit rose

0.7% in October while housing prices cooled.

• In China, the services sector expanded at a slower pace in

November as new orders weakened. Factory activity slipped to a

three-year low in November.

Technical Analysis

• Major technical indicators, on balance, are bearish to neutral.

• We turn bearish on the AUD/USD (from neutral earlier). The pair

has consolidated its previous decline by gradually retracing

some of its fall. However, we view this recovery as a temporary

rebound and expect the broader downtrend to resume. The key

resistance that is likely to obstruct the recovery lie at 0.735 and

0.760.

• We would review our outlook if the pair rebounds above 0.760.

Key Signposts

• Australia – Construction index (7 December), business

confidence, home loans and investment lending (8 December),

consumer inflation expectation, employment change and

unemployment rate (9 December).

• China – Foreign reserves (7 December), trade balance, exports

and imports (8 December), inflation and PPI (9 December),

industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment (12

December).

AUD/USD consolidating after a long decline

Technical Analysis Chart: AUD/USD (Daily)


0.700

0.735

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95


AU

D/U

SD

AUD/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Neutral



ADX (14) Neutral




Primary Resistance 0.735 High

Spot 0.733 –

Primary Support 0.700 Low

Secondary Support 0.680 High

Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 0.72

Q1 2016 0.70

Q2 2016 0.69

Q3 2016 0.68




0.7187 0.7197 0.7461



USD/SGD

We turn bullish on USD/SGD (from neutral earlier) as we believe it is

resuming its broad uptrend.

Performance

• USD/SGD ended down (-1.09%) over the previous week.

Factory activity shrank in November for the fifth straight month.

Total bank lending decreased in October from the previous

month on a decline in loans to general commerce and financial

institutions.

Technical Analysis

• Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bearish.

• However, we turn bullish on USD/SGD (from neutral earlier). The

pair seems to have found support around a key support region of

1.39-1.40 following a correction. The broader chart pattern

suggests the pair is likely to resume its uptrend. However, we do

not rule out a consolidation in the short term.

• We would review our outlook if the pair moves below 1.390 or

above 1.415.

Key Signposts

• Foreign reserves (7 December).

USD/SGD seems to be finding support

Technical Analysis Chart: USD/SGD (Daily)


1.390

1.415

1.24

1.27

1.30

1.33

1.36

1.39

1.42

1.45


US

D/S

GD

USD/SGD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Sell

MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Buy



Secondary Resistance 1.435 Medium


Spot 1.400 –



Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 1.41

Q1 2016 1.43

Q2 2016 1.44

Q3 2016 1.45




1.4074 1.4034 1.3777



GBP/USD

We remain neutral on GBP/USD as the pair is likely to consolidate in

the short term.

Performance

• GBP/USD ended up (0.51%) over the previous week. Services

growth hit a four-month high in November, pointing to a stronger

economy expansion in the final month of the year. However,

factory activity slowed more than expected in November.

Consumer credit rose strongly and mortgage approvals edged

higher.

Technical Analysis


• We remain neutral on GBP/USD. The pair has been trading in a

moderate downward sloping trend-channel since the August

high. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals at the

moment and suggest some short-term consolidation is likely.

• We would review our outlook if the pair rebounds above 1.532 or

falls below 1.500.

Key Signposts

• Industrial production and retail sales (8 December), trade

balance and BoE meeting (10 November), inflation expectations

(11 November).

GBP/USD has been trading in a broad downtrend channel

Technical Analysis Chart: GBP/USD (Daily)


1.500

1.532

1.46

1.48

1.50

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.60

1.62

1.64

1.66

1.68


GB

P/U

SD

GBP/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Neutral



ADX (14) Sell





Spot 1.501 –

Primary Support 1.500 Medium


Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 1.55

Q1 2016 1.51

Q2 2016 1.51

Q3 2016 1.50




1.5241 1.5365 1.5324



USD/MYR

We remain remain neutral on USD/MYR and expect the pair to remain

range-bound.

Performance

• USD/MYR ended lower (-0.69%) over the previous week.

• A rebound in crude oil prices and Malaysia’s strong October trade

balance, amounting MYR 12.16bn (vs. 9.69bn in Sep 2015) last

week were positive for the MYR.

• Exports grew 16.7% yoy and imports fell 0.40% yoy in Oct 2015.

Technical Analysis

• Major technical indicators, on balance, are divergent.

• We remain neutral on the USD/MYR. The pair turned lower and

slipped to a low of 4.189 after breaching the support of 4.212 last

week.

• In our view, the pair is likely to remain range bound ahead of the

US Fed meeting next week. We believe the 4.095 level will be a

strong support region if the pair moves below psychological level

of 4.200 whereas primary resistance at 4.287 may trigger profit

taking on long USD positions.

• We will review our outlook if the pair moves above 4.287 or

below 4.095.

Key Signposts

• Foreign Reserves (7 December) and Industrial Production (10

December).

USD/MYR continues to trade within a broad range

Technical Analysis Chart: USD/MYR (Daily)


4.095

4.287

2.90

3.10

3.30

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

4.70

Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

US

D/M

YR

USD/MYR 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Neutral


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Buy




Spot 4.200 –

Primary Support 4.095 Medium


Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 4.38

Q1 2016 4.36

Q2 2016 4.37

Q3 2016 4.40

* Bloomberg, Standard Chartered


4.2838 4.1974 3.9405



XAU/USD (Gold)

We remain bearish on XAU/USD as we believe the recent rally is likely

to fizzle out.

Performance

• XAU/USD ended up (2.74%) over the previous week. The US

dollar failed to react to the job reports as much it reacted to the

ECB’s softer-than-expected stimulus measure announcement.

Technical Analysis

• Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bearish.

• We remain bearish on XAU/USD. Gold witnessed a quick

rebound fuelled by short coverers as it retraced some of its

earlier weeks’ decline. We expect the current rebound to fizzle

out and downtrend to resume once again.

• We would review our outlook if the pair moves above 1,120.

Key Signposts

• Gold is likely to follow the USD outlook in the short term.

Intermittent consolidation ranges within the longer-term downtrend

Technical Analysis Chart: XAU/USD (Daily)


1,080

1,120

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350


XA

U/U

SD

XAU/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma



RSI (14) Sell



ADX (14) Sell



Secondary Resistance 1,160 High

Primary Resistance 1,120 Medium

Spot 1,085 –

Primary Support 1,080 Medium

Secondary Support 1,040 Medium

Forecast Consensus

Q4 2015 1,125

Q1 2016 1,125

Q2 2016 1,100

Q3 2016 1,125




1085.79 1117.14 1117.36



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS

*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS – Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs

We remain neutral on USD/CNH

Technical Analysis: USD/CNH


We remain neutral on USD/ZAR

Technical Analysis: USD/ZAR


We turn bearish on NZD/USD (from neutral earlier)

Technical Analysis: NZD/USD


6.300

6.440

5.96

6.06

6.16

6.26

6.36

6.46

6.56


US

D/C

NH

USD/CNH 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

13.400

14.400

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0


US

D/Z

AR

USD/ZAR 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

0.645

0.680

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15

NZ

D/U

SD

NZD/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma


6.3855 6.3781 6.2965


13.8776 13.5083 12.8189


0.6623 0.6548 0.6904



We turn bullish on USD/CHF (from neutral earlier)

Technical Analysis: USD/CHF


We remain neutral on the USDSEK

Technical Analysis: USD/SEK


We remain bullish on USD/CAD

Technical Analysis: USD/CAD


0.972

1.020

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

US

D/C

HF

USD/CHF 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

8.275

8.860

6.2

6.7

7.2

7.7

8.2

8.7

9.2

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

US

D/S

EK

USD/SEK 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma

1.300

1.340

1.01

1.06

1.11

1.16

1.21

1.26

1.31

1.36

1.41

Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15

US

D/C

AD

USD/CAD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma


8.5069 8.4934 8.4733


1.3198 1.3182 1.2804


0.9903 0.9797 0.9652



Interest Rate Differentials FX Implied Volatility

Measures the yield of holding the foreign currency relative to the base currency

An appropriate indicator used to gauge future expectations of price movements based on FX options market pricing

EUR/USD EUR/USD

USD/JPY USD/JPY

AUD/USD AUD/USD

USD/SGD USD/SGD

GBP/USD GBP/USD


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Apr-10 Sep-11 Feb-13 Jul-14 Dec-15

EU

R/U

SD

%

Difference between EUR and USD 2 yr swap EUR/USD (RHS)

0

4

8

12

16

20

Jan-11 Mar-12 Jun-13 Sep-14 Dec-15

2W Implied Volatility

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


US

D/J

PY

%

Difference between USD and JPY 2 yr swap USD/JPY (RHS)

0

5

10

15

20

25



0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


AU

D/U

SD

%

Difference between AUD and USD 2 yr swap AUD/USD (RHS)

0

5

10

15

20

25



1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


US

D/S

GD

%

Difference between USD and SGD 2 yr swap USD/SGD (RHS)

0

5

10

15

20



1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

-0.2

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3


GB

P/U

SD

%

Difference between GBP and USD 2 yr swap GBP/USD (RHS)

0

4

8

12

16

20





TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX

RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time

period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a

given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is

considered overbought.

MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages

of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice

versa.

ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index

rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.

Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past.

If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the

momentum Indicator will be weak.


13

Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote

the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment

research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within Standard Chartered Bank, (“SCB”)

particularly those of the Global Research function.

Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The

Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is

authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation

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provider (licence number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002

In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of

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jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC.

Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates

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This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation

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instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial

situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or

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Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any

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fx strat 7 12 2015 prb · rebound and expect the broader downtrend to resume. the key resistance...

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