fx forecast update - danske bank€¦ · outlook for the swedish economy. see scandi strategy 2015:...

Investment Research

www.danskebank.com/CI

FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014

It’s the oil, stupid!

Thomas Harr

Global Head of FICC Research

Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt

Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst

Morten Helt Lars Christensen Christin Tuxen (on leave) Vladimir Miklashevsky

Senior Analyst Chief Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst

www.danskebank.com/research

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report.

2 www.danskebank.com/CI

Main forecast changes part I

NOTE: This month’s FX Forecast Update is in a reduced form

• We are lifting our EUR/NOK forecasts as oil prices have collapsed and Norges Bank has cut interest rates, which we did not expect. There is a significant risk of the oil price undershooting, which would weigh on the NOK. In addition, the market is likely to price in two additional 25bp cuts from Norges Bank in the coming months, while we expect ECB sovereign QE in Q1 to mitigate NOK losses. Medium term, we continue to see significant value in the NOK due to strong internal and external balances and valuation. To sum up, we lift our EUR/NOK forecasts to 9.25 (from 8.80) in 1M, 9.40 (8.70) in 3M, 9.00 in 6M (8.50) and 8.50 (8.20) in 12M. See page 4 for details.

• We have kept our EUR/SEK forecast unchanged from 3 December where we raised our targets for EUR/SEK to 9.40 in 1M (from 9.20), 9.30 in 3M (9.10), 9.20 in 6M (9.00) and 9.00 in 12M (8.90) in the light of a weaker outlook for the Swedish economy. See Scandi Strategy 2015: Converging growth, low for longer and carry (3 December) for details. EUR/SEK has edged higher in recent weeks towards our 1M target at 9.40 and we expect the cross to trade around the 9.40 level in the coming months. Fundamental macro arguments unambiguously suggest the SEK is undervalued, which in turn serves as an anchor for our medium- to long-term forecasts on EUR/SEK. See page 5 for details.

• Recent months have confirmed our expectation of a continued uptrend in USD/JPY – albeit the recent risk-off sentiment and year-end profit taking in the USD has temporarily slowed the move higher. We still expect relative monetary policy and portfolio flows to be important drivers in 2015 and as a result we lift our USD/JPY profile. We target the cross at 120 (previously 118) in 1M, 122 (120) in 3M, 124 (122) in 6M and 126 (124) in 12M.

• We are ‘rolling’ our 1M EUR/USD forecast to 1.23 from 1.24, keeping our 3M, 6M and 12M forecasts unchanged. ECB easing in Q1 will weigh on EUR/USD near term.

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/2015Scandistrategyoutlook031214/$file/2015Scandi_strategy_outlook_031214.pdf



http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/abo/FXForecastAUDDecember2014111214/$file/FX_Forecast_AUD_December2014_111214.pdf


Main forecast changes part II

• We revise our USD/RUB forecast substantially higher due to the weak oil price outlook and the challenging situation in the Russian economy. Tightening monetary policy, capital outflows and western sanctions are keeping fixed investment growth in negative territory, which will send the economy into a deep recession in 2015. We expect accelerating inflation to hit double-digit levels in Q1 15, weighing further on the rouble's nominal exchange rate. However, major external shocks will be mitigated due to the free floating rouble. We now target USD/RUB at 72 (previously 48) in 1M, 75 (49) in 3M, 78 (51) in 6M and 80 (51) in 12M.

• Last week, we modified our AUD/USD forecast, as we now believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a single rate cut in Q1 15. The five main reasons for this are disappointing growth figures, low inflation, high unemployment, macro prudential policy alerts and recent dovish RBA comments (for more information see AUD/USD Forecast Update: RBA to cut the interest rate in Q1 15, 11 December). Specifically, we expect the RBA to cut in March and governor Glenn Stevens to communicate an explicit easing bias at the RBA’s next meeting in February. What is more, we still expect US growth outperformance, relative monetary policy and the USD’s role as an asset currency to pull AUD/USD lower. In light of the above, we revised our targets and expect AUD/USD to trade at 0.82 (previously 0.86) in 1M, 0.81 (0.85) in 3M, 0.80 (0.84) in 6M and 0.79 (0.83) in 12M.

• In the short term, we expect moderate depreciation pressure on the CNY on the back of both a stronger easing bias in monetary policy and less favourable seasonal inflows from the trade balance. We have revised our one-month and three-month forecasts for USD/CNY higher to 6.20 (previously 6.13) and 6.18 (6.15) respectively. In the medium term, we expect the CNY to remain on a moderate appreciation path supported by an increasing trade balance surplus and we target 6.02 for USD/CNY on a 12-month horizon.

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/FXForecastAUDDecember2014111214/$file/FX_Forecast_AUD_December2014_111214.pdf


Forecast: 9.25 (1M), 9.40 (3M), 9.00 (6M), 8.50 (12M)

EUR/NOK – It’s all about oil

• Growth. Norwegian growth has been mixed, with the sharp fall in oil-related investments and activity counteracted by solid performances in the housing market, domestic demand and labour markets. Norges Bank forecasts mainland GDP of 1.5% in 2015; we forecast 1.75%. However, there are significant downside risks to both Norges Bank’s and our growth forecasts. Norwegian growth is a negative for the NOK over the coming three months.

• Monetary policy. Norges Bank cut interest rates by 25bp in December and the market is likely to price in 50bp of additional rate cuts near term. The market is currently pricing in around 40bp of rate cuts from Norges Bank over the coming 12 months. We expect the ECB to enact sovereign QE in Q1 15. Relative monetary policy is mixed for the NOK versus the EUR in 2015.

• Flows. Looking at the cumulative purchases for the past four weeks, foreign banks have sold almost NOK14bn. This suggests that positioning has reached stretched levels and that EUR/NOK is vulnerable to the downside should fundamentals improve.

• Valuation. Our PPP models put EUR/NOK at 8.17, suggesting that the NOK is cheap.

• Risks. The risk is that oil prices continue to fall and that Norway is hit by a substantial slowdown.

4

Conclusion. We are lifting our EUR/NOK forecasts as oil prices have collapsed and Norges Bank has cut interest rates, which we did not expect. There is a significant risk of the oil price undershooting, which would weigh on the NOK. In addition, the market is likely to price in two additional cuts from Norges Bank in coming months while ECB sovereign QE in Q1 will mitigate NOK losses. Medium term, we continue to see significant value in the NOK due to strong internal and external balances and valuation. To sum up, we lift our EUR/NOK forecasts to 9.25 (from 8.80) in 1M, 9.40 (8.70) in 3M, 9.00 in 6M (8.50) and 8.50 (8.20) in 12M.

Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst, [email protected], +45 45 13 67 31

Source: Danske Bank Markets

EUR/NOK 1M 3M 6M 12M

Forecast (pct'ile) 9.25 (59%) 9.40 (69%) 9.00 (38%) 8.50 (17%)

Fwd. / Consensus 9.21 / 8.41 9.23 / 8.48 9.26 / 8.42 9.30 / 8.22

50% confidence int. 8.97 / 9.40 8.89 / 9.49 8.78 / 9.62 8.68 / 9.74

75% confidence int. 8.84 / 9.60 8.71 / 9.77 8.53 / 10.00 8.32 / 10.25

k

8.00

8.25

8.50

8.75

9.00

9.25

9.50

9.75

10.00

10.25

10.50

Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15

EUR/NOK

75% conf. int. 50% conf.int. Forward Danske fcst Consensus fcst


Forecast: 9.40 (1M), 9.30 (3M), 9.20 (6M), 9.00 (12M)

EUR/SEK – the SEK expected to stay weak near term

• Growth. We have a more downbeat view on Swedish growth for 2015 than consensus. Weak foreign demand continues to be a headwind. In addition, we expect private consumption to take a hit from new mandatory amortisation rules coming into effect next year. This said, we still expect Sweden to outperform euroland in terms of growth.

• Monetary policy. The Riksbank has reached the ZLB, meaning rates are basically flat versus the ECB. The Riksbank will probably need to delay future repo rate hikes further. If this is not enough, it will have to dig deeper into the unconventional toolbox; negative rates and QE are options, while currency floors and direct FX measures are not in the pipeline. The ECB is likely to do QE in Q1, which could send EUR/SEK lower.

• Flows. PPM payments (SEK36bn, of which a third is estimated to affect the SEK) was due on 15 December. The SEK tends to weaken ahead of, and appreciate after, the PPM date.

• Valuation. Fundamental macro arguments unambiguously suggest the SEK is undervalued, which in turn serves as an anchor for our medium- to long-term forecasts on EUR/SEK.

• Risks. The SEK is sensitive to Riksbank/ECB measures and spillover effects from the NOK. A sharp downturn in the Swedish housing market is a more fundamental risk. The messy political situation could affect foreign attitudes to Sweden, although, in our view, significant financial ramifications are not warranted.

5

Conclusion. EUR/SEK has edged higher in recent weeks towards our 1M target at 9.40. Basically, it is a natural response to weaker growth signals given the procyclicality of the SEK and year-end flows (PPM). Forecasters in general may be too optimistic on Swedish growth, a potential headwind for the SEK going into next year. The trend rise in EUR/SEK also reflects relatively expansionary policy on behalf of the Riksbank over the past year. However, short rates are now at the same low level. The ECB and Riksbank may elaborate further with unconventional measures next year but from a relative stance the ECB is likely to be more aggressive going forward.


Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst, [email protected], +46 8 568 805 92

EUR/SEK 1M 3M 6M 12M

Forecast (pct'ile) 9.40 (53%) 9.30 (40%) 9.20 (35%) 9.00 (27%)

Fwd. / Consensus 9.40 / 9.24 9.41 / 9.21 9.41 / 9.16 9.42 / 9.02

50% confidence int. 9.24 / 9.54 9.17 / 9.60 9.08 / 9.67 8.97 / 9.76

75% confidence int. 9.14 / 9.67 9.03 / 9.79 8.88 / 9.94 8.69 / 10.14

k

8.50

8.75

9.00

9.25

9.50

9.75

10.00

10.25

Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15

EUR/SEK

75% conf. int. 50% conf.int. Forward Danske fcst Consensus fcst


Danske Bank Markets FX forecasts vs EUR and USD


Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m +1m +3m +6m +12m

Exchange rates vs EUR

USD 1.251 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.23 -1.7 -2.5 -4.2 -2.1JPY 145.6 148 149 149 155 1.4 2.3 2.3 6.6GBP 0.799 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.79 -1.1 -3.7 -5.1 -1.7CHF 1.201 1.205 1.210 1.220 1.240 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.5

DKK 7.4396 7.4425 7.4425 7.4390 7.4390 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0NOK 9.41 9.25 9.40 9.00 8.50 -1.8 -0.4 -4.9 -10.6SEK 9.50 9.40 9.30 9.20 9.00 -1.1 -2.2 -3.3 -5.4

Exchange rates vs USD

JPY 116.4 120 122 124 126 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.9GBP 1.57 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.56 -0.6 1.2 1.0 -0.4CHF 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.01 2.1 3.4 6.2 5.7

DKK 5.95 6.05 6.10 6.20 6.05 1.8 2.6 4.4 2.2NOK 7.52 7.52 7.70 7.50 6.91 -0.1 2.2 -0.7 -8.7SEK 7.60 7.64 7.62 7.67 7.32 0.6 0.4 1.0 -3.4

CAD 1.17 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.13 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.8AUD 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 -0.3 -1.1 -1.8 -1.9NZD 0.78 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.9 -2.5 -2.9 -2.6

RUB 65.91 72.00 75.00 78.00 80.00 7.2 7.7 6.7 2.2CNY 6.19 6.20 6.18 6.12 6.02 -0.4 -1.3 -2.8 -5.3Note: GBP, AUD and NZD are denominated in local currency rather than USD

Forecast Forecast vs forward outright, %


Danske Bank Markets FX forecasts vs DKK


Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m +1m +3m +6m +12m

Exchange rates vs DKK

EUR 7.4398 7.4425 7.4425 7.4390 7.4390 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0USD 5.97 6.05 6.10 6.20 6.05 1.3 2.2 3.9 1.8JPY 5.09 5.04 5.00 5.00 4.80 -1.0 -1.8 -1.9 -5.8GBP 9.36 9.42 9.67 9.79 9.42 0.7 3.4 4.9 1.4CHF 6.19 6.18 6.15 6.10 6.00 -0.3 -0.7 -1.6 -3.3

NOK 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.83 0.88 0.5 -0.8 3.8 10.4SEK 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.83 1.1 2.3 3.4 5.8

CAD 5.13 5.31 5.35 5.44 5.35 3.5 4.5 6.5 5.6AUD 4.92 4.96 4.94 4.96 4.78 1.2 1.3 2.4 0.0NZD 4.63 4.72 4.58 4.59 4.42 2.4 -0.2 1.1 -0.8

PLN 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.77 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.4CZK 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7HUF 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.0RUB 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 -13.9 -14.2 -12.2 -11.5

CNY 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.8 3.6 7.1 7.6



Danske Bank Markets FX forecasts vs SEK


Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m +1m +3m +6m +12m

Exchange rates vs SEK

EUR 9.50 9.40 9.30 9.20 9.00 -1.1 -2.2 -3.2 -5.4USD 7.63 7.64 7.62 7.67 7.32 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -3.8JPY 6.50 6.37 6.25 6.18 5.81 -2.1 -4.0 -5.0 -11.0GBP 11.95 11.90 12.08 12.11 11.39 -0.4 1.2 1.5 -4.2CHF 7.91 7.80 7.69 7.54 7.26 -1.4 -2.9 -4.8 -8.6

NOK 1.02 1.02 0.99 1.02 1.06 -0.6 -3.0 0.4 4.4DKK 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.21 -1.1 -2.2 -3.3 -5.5

CAD 6.56 6.70 6.69 6.73 6.48 2.3 2.2 3.1 -0.2AUD 6.28 6.27 6.17 6.13 5.78 0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -5.5NZD 5.91 5.96 5.72 5.67 5.34 1.2 -2.4 -2.2 -6.2

PLN 2.27 2.25 2.24 2.22 2.14 -0.5 -0.9 -1.6 -4.2CZK 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.32 -2.7 -3.7 -4.8 -7.1HUF 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 -0.8 -2.3 -3.0 -4.5RUB 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 -14.9 -16.1 -15.0 -16.4

CNY 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 1.22 0.7 1.3 3.6 1.7



Danske Bank Markets FX forecasts vs NOK


Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m +1m +3m +6m +12m

Exchange rates vs NOK

EUR 9.28 9.25 9.40 9.00 8.50 -0.5 0.9 -3.6 -9.4USD 7.46 7.52 7.70 7.50 6.91 0.8 3.1 0.1 -7.9JPY 6.35 6.27 6.32 6.05 5.48 -1.5 -1.0 -5.4 -14.7GBP 11.68 11.71 12.21 11.84 10.76 0.2 4.3 1.1 -8.2CHF 7.73 7.68 7.77 7.38 6.85 -0.8 0.1 -5.2 -12.5

SEK 0.98 0.98 1.01 0.98 0.94 0.6 3.1 -0.4 -4.2DKK 1.25 1.24 1.26 1.21 1.14 -0.5 0.9 -3.7 -9.5

CAD 6.41 6.60 6.76 6.58 6.12 2.9 5.4 2.6 -4.4AUD 6.13 6.17 6.24 6.00 5.46 0.7 2.1 -1.4 -9.5NZD 5.77 5.87 5.78 5.55 5.04 1.8 0.7 -2.6 -10.1

PLN 2.22 2.22 2.27 2.17 2.02 0.1 2.2 -2.0 -8.2CZK 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.30 -2.1 -0.7 -5.2 -11.0HUF 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.27 -0.2 0.8 -3.4 -8.6RUB 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 -14.4 -13.4 -15.4 -19.9

CNY 1.20 1.21 1.25 1.23 1.15 1.3 4.5 3.2 -2.6



Danske Bank EMEA FX forecasts


Danske Forward Danske Forward Danske Forward Danske Forward Danske Forward

PLN 16-Dec-14 4.19 3.36 178 227 222

+1M 4.17 4.19 3.39 3.37 178 177 225 227 222 222

+3M 4.15 4.20 3.40 3.37 179 177 224 226 227 222

+6M 4.15 4.22 3.46 3.39 179 176 222 225 217 221

+12M 4.20 4.25 3.41 3.40 177 175 214 224 202 221

HUF 16-Dec-14 309 248 24.1 3.08 3.01

+1M 308 309 250 248 24.2 24.1 3.05 3.08 3.00 3.01

+3M 310 310 254 249 24.0 24.0 3.00 3.07 3.03 3.01

+6M 310 311 258 249 24.0 23.9 2.97 3.06 2.90 3.01

+12M 310 313 252 250 24.0 23.8 2.90 3.04 2.74 3.00

CZK 16-Dec-14 27.6 22.1 27.0 34.5 33.7

+1M 28.0 27.6 22.8 22.1 26.6 27.0 33.6 34.5 33.0 33.7

+3M 28.0 27.6 23.0 22.1 26.6 27.0 33.2 34.5 33.6 33.8

+6M 28.0 27.5 23.3 22.1 26.6 27.0 32.9 34.5 32.1 33.9

+12M 28.0 27.5 22.8 22.0 26.6 27.0 32.1 34.6 30.4 34.1

RUB 16-Dec-14 75.0 64.9 9.8 12.7 12.4

+1M 88.6 76.2 72.0 65.6 8.4 9.8 10.6 12.5 10.4 12.2

+3M 91.5 78.5 75.0 67.6 8.1 9.5 10.2 12.1 10.3 11.9

+6M 93.6 82.2 78.0 70.6 7.9 9.1 9.8 11.6 9.6 11.4

+12M 98.4 87.0 80.0 75.0 7.6 8.5 9.1 10.9 8.6 10.8

TRY 16-Dec-14 2.93 2.35 254 324 317

+1M 2.79 2.96 2.27 2.37 267 252 337 321 332 314

+3M 2.80 3.00 2.30 2.40 266 248 332 317 336 311

+6M 2.78 3.06 2.32 2.45 268 243 331 311 324 305

+12M 2.95 3.20 2.40 2.56 252 232 305 298 288 293

ZAR 16-Dec-14 14.6 11.7 51.0 65.1 63.7

+1M 14.3 14.7 11.63 11.8 52.0 50.7 65.7 64.8 64.7 63.4

+3M 14.2 14.8 11.60 11.9 52.6 50.2 65.7 64.1 66.4 62.8

+6M 14.2 15.1 11.80 12.1 52.5 49.4 65.0 63.1 63.6 62.0

+12M 14.9 15.6 12.15 12.5 49.8 47.7 60.2 61.0 56.9 60.2

EUR USD DKK SEK NOK


Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of this research report are Thomas Harr (Chief Analyst), Stefan Mellin (Senior Analyst), Stanislava Pravdová-Nielsen (Analyst), Morten Helt (Senior Analyst), Jens Naervig Pedersen (Analyst), Lars Christensen (Chief Analyst), Kristoffer Lomholt (Analyst) and Vladimir Miklashevsky (Analyst).

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fx forecast update - danske bank€¦ · outlook for the swedish economy. see scandi strategy 2015:...

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