Foresight & Futures Thinking

PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT

The Governing Board....provide advise on the strategic direction and focus areas of the institute

“However good our

futures research may be,

we shall never be able to

escape from the ultimate

dilemma that all our

knowledge is about the

past,

and all our decision are

about the future”

Ian Wilson

“Looking at the future should

disturb the present”

Gaston Berger

“The best way to predict the

future is to invent it”

Alan Curtis Kay

“Yesterday is history,

tomorrow a mystery,

but today is a gift… ”

Master Oogway

2007 World Economic Forum/Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Future is not necessarily continuation of the past

FORESIGHT & FUTURES THINKING

“There is no reason anyone would want

a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977

President, chairman and founder of

Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)

“Heavier-than-air flying machines are

impossible.” Lord Kelvin, 1895

British mathematician and physicist,

President of the British Royal Society.

“The Americans have need of the

telephone, but we do not. We have

plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, 1878

Chief Engineer, British Post Office,

predictions that gone wrong

discontinuous change: past disruptions

• 9/11 disrupts air travel

• Small, fuel efficient vehicles disrupts the auto industry

• Digitisation/ Google disrupts media, library

• iPhone disrupts Motorola, Nokia, RIM

• Laptops disrupt desktops…. (tablets to disrupt laptops)

• MOOC disrupting higher education

2007 World Economic Forum/Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Future is not necessarily continuation of the past

FORESIGHT & FUTURES THINKING

SystematicallyLooking at the Future

Engaging

Trans-DisciplinaryStakeholders

Deploying

VariousMethodologies

Organizing a

Long TermThinking Process

2007 World Economic Forum/Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Future is not necessarily continuation of the

past

FORESIGHT & FUTURES THINKING

UnderstandingFuture Needs

Drivers Of Change

AnticipatingChanges & Disruption

Identifying Uncertainties

FUTURES THINKING & TRANSFORMATION

ChangeOf Mindset

ExploringFuture Scenarios

ProvocateurMobilizing

Actions

A SIMPLE ANALOGY

• Gender

• Age

• Relationship

• Working status

• Health condition

• Education level

• State of Mind

• Needs

• Wants

PRESENT

• Gender

• Age

• Relationship

• Working status

• Health condition

• Education level

• Gender

• Age

• Needs

• Relationship

• Working status

• Health condition

• Education level

• Wants

PRESENT FUTURE

certain

uncertain

• Gender

• Age

• Married

• Working MNC

• Healthy

• Degree

• Stress• It’s Complicated

• Entrepreneur

• Slight Overweight

• Diploma

• Mood Swing

• Relationship

• Part Time

• Healthy

• PhD Candidate

• Happy

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

… realization of best case scenarios

… avoiding worst case scenarios

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT POLITICS VALUES

DESIRED SCENARIOS

Sustainable Food & Water

ThrivingLivelihood

Clean Energy

Good Governance

Healthy & Productive

Eco-System