future_of_media_measurement forr 110

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Making Leaders Successul Every Day

J 15, 2010

The Fte O MedMesemet Dd M. Coopeste

o Mketg Ledeshp Poessols

http://www.forrester.com/



© 2010, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Inormation is based on best availableresources. Opinions refect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar,and Total Economic Impact are trademarks o Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property o their respective companies. To purchase reprints o this document, please email [email protected]. For additional inormation, go to www.orrester.com.

Fo Mketg Ledeshp Poessols

Includes Forrester research panel data

ExECuTivE SuMMary

Marketers can’t see value in multichannel marketing until they can measure it. V spending is still the

biggest above-the-line expense, even as Internet usage increases and mass media audiences ragment.

Yet 65% o marketing leaders think Internet measurement is more useul than V measurement.

Te ecosystem in measured media — media planning and buying agencies, media companies, and

measurement vendors — as well as marketers themselves, has entrenched practices that don’t deliver

eective accountability. But change is in the air, as online video sparks the need or interactivemeasurement practices to cross over into television and vice versa. In time, the measurement o V

advertising will become more like that o interactive marketing, and branding will be held to the stricter

accountability o direct marketing.

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http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=54790&src=54091pdf













© 2010, Foeste resech, ic. repodcto PohtedJ 15, 2010

The Fte O Med Mesemet


2

MeDIA MeASuReMenT IS MIReD In ChAnneL SILoS

When asked what was their top media planning challenge, CMOs and other marketing leaders

Forrester surveyed point to measuring their overall media eectiveness. Measurement issues —

including justiying budgets to the executive team — outpace concerns like agency management

and selection or the cost, clutter, or commercial-skipping o television advertising (see Figure 1). As

mass media ragments and online media increase in importance, media measurement remains stuck

in channel-based silos that leave marketers with:

· Historical behaviors. Nearly all companies budget advertising spending by media channel,

rather than by marketing objective or ad ormat. Tat leads to calcied behaviors and minimal

cross-channel learnings. Few are willing to und cross-channel experimentation out o the $70

billion that they spend on television or the $25 billion or interactive in the US.1 While Forrester

sees cross-media campaigns as an increasingly important way to harness consumer media

behavior, integrated marketing will demand more comparisons o marketing eectivenessacross media.2 Tat’s something 59% o marketing leaders say is a challenge or their

organizations right now (see Figure 2).

· Dierent objectives based on available measures. While 70% o marketing leaders wish it

were easier to compare V ratings with online data, diering objectives or the channels mute

the demand or the comparison today. Fiy-two percent o online advertising spend goes

to paid search, and nearly 40% o the rest is bought on a perormance basis.3 Tus most o

online advertising is or direct marketing purposes rather than raising awareness, increasing

consideration, or other goals associated with brand campaigns.

· Incompatible metrics across channels. Most marketing leaders agree that Internetmeasurement is more useul than V viewing measurement, heightened by online’s precision

and ocus on cost per action rather than the cost per impression o television. Estimating

consumer behavior in either medium is dependent on modeling the total audience based on

tracking panels o users. Primarily due to the measurement technology available at the time, V

tracking ocused on gross rating points (GRPs) as a single metric or reach and timing, although

it allows viewer duplication. In contrast, digital measurement zeroed in on unique visitors and

page views that URL- and cookie-spotting PC- or server-based soware meters could handle.

Unortunately or cross-media accountability, this makes or apples to oranges comparisons (see

Figure 3).



© 2010, Foeste resech, ic. repodcto Pohted J 15, 2010



3

Fir 1 Mketg Ledes rte Med Mesemet ad accotlt as Top Chlleges

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

86%

53%

46%

37%

24%

19%

17%

9%

Measuring the effectiveness of my media strategyand its efficiency

Coordinating the traditional and the new mediaagencies I work with

Justifying my media budget decisionsto management

Choosing the right media agency

Television commercial clutter

The increasing cost of television

Television commercial skipping

I’m satisfied with my media strategy

Base: 79 marketing leaders(multiple responses accepted)

Source: September 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey

“Please select the five main media planning challenges

you’ve faced in 2009 among the categories below?”

Measurement issues

54091






4

Fir 2 Wsh Lst icldes Coss-Med Compsos

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.54091

“Thinking of the systems and metrics used to measure marketing effectiveness and ROI,

how much do you agree with the following?”

Source: July 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey

Completelydisagree

Somewhatdisagree

Neutral Somewhatagree

Completely agree

Base: 57 marketing leaders who spend on TV

Comparing marketing effectivenessacross media (TV, Internet, print, etc.)

is a challenge for my company

I wish it were easier to compare TV ratings with online data

Internet usage measurementis more useful

than television viewing measurement

20% 40%0% 80%60% 100%

59% agree

70% agree

65% agree

Fir 3 Chel-bsed Slos iht Med Mesemet ioto


Spending

Objectives

Metrics

$70 billion

• Mass reach

• Awareness

• Consideration

• Other branding goals

$25 billion

• Unique visitors

• Total universe reach

• Time spent

• Source/loss

Television Interactive

• Targeted audiences

• 60% to 70% directmarketing objectives

• Daypart reach

• Delayed viewing






5

Bt Itral Ad extral Frcs Catalyz Mdia Masrmt Ca

Media measurement will ultimately undergo radical change, driven by demand, new technologies,

and both existing and new players in the measurement supply chain. Entrenched behaviors on the

part o marketers and the measurement supply chain will drag out the evolution, but early indicators

are positive:

· Video ads show the need or a Rosetta Stone. Te small but ast-growing market or

online video ads ($870 million in 2009 growing to $3 billion in 2014) has galvanized media

measurement creativity.4 Marketing leaders surveyed rated V ads running online as their

avorite alternative to the 30-second spot.5

· Media buyers are getting cross-media religion. Media buying agencies like OMD now have

specialists that sit between digital and V, concentrating on video regardless o channel. OMD

is also working with CBS’s elevision City research acility to monitor multichannel campaigneectiveness.

· Te industry is asking or a cross-media measurement solution. Tis all, a gang o 14 media

companies, agencies, and advertisers unded the Coalition or Innovative Media Measurement

(CIMM) to issue RFPs or measurement techniques addressing cross-media video viewing and

how to best use advanced V set-top boxes (SBs).6

Te measurement industry is not ignoring these demand-side changes. New and existing players are

introducing change, such as:

·New measurement technologies that add accuracy and cross channels.

In addition toonline video, two other technology-driven trends are spurring media accountability. Te latest

generation o V set-top boxes enables advertising addressability and interactivity and can be

used to track viewing behavior. raditional, panel-based measurement companies are rolling

out new technologies too. Radio measurement stalwart Arbitron is beginning to deploy its

Portable People Meters that track individuals, not just households, and out-o-home viewing

and listening and observe multimedia behavior. Nielsen is running online video monitoring in

375 o its 7,500 people meter households with a promise to hit them all in summer 2010, as well

as statistically comparing its dierent online and V panels and oering post-campaign brand

tracking surveys through its IAG acquisition.7

· New measurement players who come rom outside V. Besides existing measurement vendorstrying to break out across silos, a handul o new suppliers oer analysis, ad targeting platorms,

and/or ad placement o o SB data licensed rom cable and satellite operators or rom iVo.

Te group includes Simulmedia, RA, Quantcast, and Rentrak, as well as Internet giants Google

and Microso/Navic. SB data will deliver millions o households’ worth o data, approaching

the level o census status.






6

· New measurement techniques that promise efciency and proper attribution. Direct

marketing data and services companies including Acxiom, Experian, Merkle, and Te

Allant Group are helping marketers create target audience groups that, when combined with

addressable SBs, lead to ar more ecient V buys than those based on simple demographics.

Vendors, digital agencies, and media companies have made “attribution” one o the hot trends

in interactive marketing, rather than depending on “last click” rom a search engine or call-to-

action banner to determine ad impact.8 Tose eorts potentially provide more cost-eective and

real-time attribution than traditional pre- and post-campaign testing and expensive media-mix

modeling. Tey will serve as models or television as it digitizes.

CRoSS-MeDIA MeASuReMenT ConVeRgenCe IS CoMIng

Marketing leadership’s need or eective measurement across all media channels will drive adoption

o these new measurement technologies and techniques. But Forrester believes it will take years orestablished behaviors and systems to evolve. Evolve they will, and over the next three to ve years

we’ll see true media measurement convergence and marketing practices that evolve in lock step as

V advertising gets treated more like interactive marketing and branding gets measured more like

direct marketing (see Figure 4):

· V measurement will move rom efciency to eectiveness. oday, most V media

accountability is based on the eciency o the media buy: Agencies aim or the best deal on

lightly targeted GRPs. Tat eciency is applied to time-tested assumptions about the eects

o impressions over time on behavior such as awareness, conversion, and sales. V campaign

efectiveness today is measured only aer the act with pre- and post-campaign surveys o

exposed and unexposed groups o viewers, a slow and expensive process. Addressable SBs willimprove eciency and dramatically cut ad waste, while viewing behavior data, interactivity, and

CRM database integration will drive toward aster and more accurate eectiveness analysis.

· Marketers will monitor their audience across media. Reach and requency measures will be

trackable across all impressions, not just channel-specic impressions. Integrated meters and

SB data will use Internet-borne tracking techniques, like tagging content and ads and even

individual users. Marketers will be able to observe longer-term cross-media behavior as vendors

and agencies integrate solutions and dashboards.

· Media buys will move closer to real-time optimization. Combining advertising interactivity with addressability will enable near real-time campaign optimization in television and online.

Advertisers will be able to make creative media adjustments as they get campaign eedback that

indicates what is required to drive branding and hit actual sales objectives.






7

Fir 4 itecte ad Dect Mketg Wll De Mesemet Coegece


Media measurement

convergenceTelevision

Interactive

Branding

Direct marketing

PRePARIng FoR MeDIA MeASuReMenT ConVeRgenCe

While we’re years away rom perect cross-media measurement convergence, various elements o the

concept will gain traction during the next ve years. Marketing leaders must monitor these changes

closely and be prepared with new innovations to take advantage o converged media opportunities.

TV Ad Itrt Will B Masrd As o By 2015

V-buying marketing leaders we surveyed said they wanted interactive media to adopt a V

measurement staple but were lukewarm on some advancements in V measurement. wo-thirds o marketing leaders agreed that the industry needs the equivalent o an online GRP or the Internet

(see Figure 5). But opinions were polarized on whether they’d pay or more granular V ratings, and

there were mostly neutral eelings toward new V metrics (and a lot o “don’t knows”).

Tese attitudes, plus interviews with marketers and members o the supply chain, both visionary

and conservative, lead Forrester to project a ve-plus year adoption o some o the core elements o

measurement convergence (see Figure 6). During that time, we will see:

· Common measurement currency. Marketers will go through a stage where Internet measures

are kludged into something that looks like GRPs to acilitate cross-media buying comparisons.

Later on, a measure that accounts or unique targeted reach and time spent with the messagewill emerge. A Yellow Book exec wasn’t the only one to call the GRP “an anachronism,” and

marketing leaders with direct marketing backgrounds derided its precision. Even though V

GRPs allow duplication o individuals, they elegantly account or requency and/or recency,

both o which are critical attribution elements and potentially useul or measuring the

elusive “engagement” that marketers like L’Oréal value. Companies like CNN, ESPN, and NBC,






8

among others, have oered dierent models to aggregate total channel reach, but there’s no

consensus yet. Agencies like Carat that have converted online impressions to GRPs warn that it

usually adds little incremental reach and believe that proper online attribution will ultimately

point away rom a GRP-like solution. In the meantime, Nielsen is proposing a time-basedmeasurement or both interactive and V and also oers some techniques or translating more

conventional online measures.

· Granular audience segmentation. Mass reach will evolve into targeted, unique audience

segment reach measured across channels. But today there’s no standard or automated way

to compare granular audiences across V and the Internet on a national basis. Each o the

direct marketing data suppliers is involved in trials with SB data to construct narrower target

audience sets than the basic demographics that drive V ratings. And the existing measurement

company systems map their panels against richer demographic and buying pattern models

rom third parties. Most marketers and buyers use homegrown dashboards to manipulate these

targets, but the newer SB-based trials are more integrated. What about tracking individual

viewers? Te US television industry is highly concerned about government regulation, so

personally identiable inormation will remain protected via third-party mechanisms. Tat’s

one reason why panels will never be replaced entirely by SB networks — they’ll remain the way

to conrm audience modeling assumptions; assess actual purchase behavior; and, with portable

meters, track out-o-home viewing.

· Real-time V optimization. Although talk o the death o the upront season occurs every

year, pre-season V spending commitments depend more on jockeying or pricing, the overall

economy, and the steady erosion o September programming launches by the networks than on

buyer demands or exibility. SB data providers will deliver regional overnight ratings beoreNielsen will, enabling aster optimization or reach objectives, i not or CPA tuning. We heard

mixed results rom marketers who had experimented with Google’s V Ads marketplace —

some liked the data but others hated auctions or mistrusted the “black box.”

· Measurement convergence with other media. Radio has Arbitron driving Portable People

Meters and online Webcasting pushing measurement convergence. Print has neither, is a long

way rom ull digitization, and is the medium that many o the marketers we talked to were re-

evaluating — downward. Outdoor and in-store signage has spots o highly “modern” activity,

but only spots. For example, YCD Multimedia has tied in-store signage management to cash

register purchase inormation or customers like Burger King and Dunkin’ Donuts.






9

Fir 5 Mketes rem Cosete O new Mesemet Techologes


“Thinking of the systems and metrics used to measure marketing effectiveness and ROI,

how much do you agree with the following?”

Source: July 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey

Completelydisagree

Somewhatdisagree

Neutral Somewhatagree

Completely agree

The industry needs the equivalentof an online GRP for the Internet

I would be willing to payfor more granular commercial

TV ratings data

I am pleased with recent developmentsin TV audience metrics(e.g., second by second, C3 ratings, etc.)

Base: 57 marketing leaders who spend on TV

20% 40%0% 80%60% 100%

67% agree

22% agree

35% agree

Fir 6 Mesemet Coegece Elemets Emege Oe Tme


Common measurement currency

Granular audiencesegmentation

Real-time TV optimization

Measurement convergencefor other media

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Radio

Print

Out-of-home

Converging media measurement

Radio






10

Mdia Masrmt Cvrc Will evlv Tr Tr Pass

CMOs who desire better marketing ROI measure should drive media measurement convergence.

Forrester doesn’t advocate reorienting the entire marketing organization around media planning,

buying, and measurement. But aggressive marketing leaders should consider three phases o

measurement convergence that tie media measurement in closer to overall marketing and campaign

strategy (see Figure 7):

· 2010 to 2011: est and experiment with new measurement options. Te next 12 to 24 months

are about trials and experimentation. Yellow Book is testing the Google V Ads marketplace

to understand: 1) just how addressable it is; 2) its perormance versus other media; and 3)

how much money and internal resources it will need to exploit it. Create a multichannel

measurement task orce that will bridge traditional and interactive perspectives and allow both

sides to evaluate the new tools and techniques. Te task orce must decide whether marketing

is more concerned with optimizing a particular media channel, or whether testing integrationis a higher priority. One o the most aggressive advanced V agencies, Starcom advises to x

V rst. It is modeling the metrics or accuracy and assumptions or how to extrapolate to the

total addressable audience granularly on three ronts: ront-end data modeling, the SB panels

themselves, and the decision engines or optimization.

· 2011 to 2013: Re-engineer media management processes. Measurement convergence

technologies will start to scale nationally, and measurement standards will solidiy. Media buys

across V and online will become comparable, which will allow CMOs and their teams to make

media buying and planning decisions outside o the silos and measure the success o integrated

campaigns holistically. eams will use valid comparison metrics to re-evaluate marketing mix

model and campaign optimization assumptions around things like reinorcement, burnout, and

the amplication o content brand and relevance on marketing messages.

· 2014 and beyond: Reinvent television advertising. Addressable, interactive V ads will be

mainstream in ve years, likely accounting or 20% to 30% o spend. Tat means integrated

campaigns geared to move audience segments through the buying cycle will be much more

managed procedures than they are now. Creative ight sequencing will be a harder problem

than media planning. CMOs will consider moving media completely in-house, as V

increasingly accommodates sel-serve buying tools rom Google and the cable operators. Even i

most V buying and selling remains on the gol course rather than online, CMOs will institute

continuous planning to exploit the exibility and near real-time optimization o traditionalmedia channels.






11

Fir 7 Mge Coeget Mesemet i Thee Phses


Testing andexperimentation,2009 to 2011

Comparison andre-engineering,2011 to 2013

Reinventing television,beginning in 2014

Multichannel task force

Media buyingby format or objectiveinstead of channel

Common strategy/media/creative team

• Agency coordination

• Prioritize channeloptimization versusmultichannelintegration

• Budget forexperimentation

• Institute flexibleplanning cycles

• Replace media mixmodeling

• Consider in-housemedia buying

Phase Organization Processes Tools

• Re-evaluate mixmodeling assumptions

• Sanity check across

tools, channels

• Establish KPIsfor engagement, etc.

• Operationalize new

measurement concepts

• Set-top box data

• Direct marketing data

• Multichannelsegmentation

• Common currencyacross Internet and TV

• Integrated measurementdashboards

• Hybrid paneland census approach

• Multichannelbehavioral tracking

• Real-time optimization

W H a T i T M E a n S

ReInVenTIng TV ADVeRTISIng ALong InTeRneT LIneS

as med mesemet coeges, so too wll some o the mketg omts d g

pocedes. Jst how mch wll Tv look lke the iteet? Foeste epects the ollowg:

· TV ad twrks will strl t t prmim ivtry. The detsg sppl ch s

moe ds-tegted ole th t s o teleso. Tod, Tv ep ms, jst lke d etwoks,

get ccess ol to emt o spot eto. Ole, sech, d cotetl dspl d

etwok mgs decled pdl: The etwok tll kept 40% o the sped t qckl

eded p wth 10% to 20%. Lkewse, el-tme, cto-sed mketplces esemlg

Google adWods wll stggle to g tcto. Stcom ss most o ts clets tht ted

Google Tv ads e’t comg ck. Mekle’s LogcL s tg to ld mketplce cossmesed d mesed med d s wsel cocettg o metcs st.

· Clicktr TV will rmai islatd.Tv’s moe psse ewg epeece o Dvr

o commecl skppg leds tsel to “clck o moe omto t lte tme” led

geeto ppoch the th dected shoppg epeece otsde o shoppg

etwoks lke QvC d HSn. Smll, clcks o podcts plced how-to shows wll






12

e moe efecte th clcks to le moe ot st’s w dess. Few mketes

wll et wdgets tht eqe comple pogmmg whe the c pode psse

commecls d podct plcemets sted.

· Ttal TV spdi will rw. Foeste elees tht lthogh pope mesemet wll ct

dow o Tv spedg wste, the et eslt wll e moe the th less spedg o Tv oe

tme. Tv wll em the mss dg medm o choce t wll dele moe elece

thogh ette dece tgetg. The comto o ctcl mss ech d tgetg wll

cese CPMs, t mketes shold e comotle spedg them d tg cmpgs

moe closel to eho chge ojectes. i d detses e slow to dopt ew

techqes, dect mketes who dd’t do mch Tv eoe wll come to the mket.

SuPPLeMenTAL MATeRIAL

MtdlyForrester’s September 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey was elded to 79 marketing

leadership proessionals rom our ongoing Marketing & Strategy Research Panel. Te panel consists

o volunteers who join on the basis o interest and amiliarity with specic marketing and strategy

topics. For quality assurance, panelists are required to provide contact inormation and answer basic

questions about their rms’ revenue and budgets.

Forrester elded the survey rom September to October 2009. Respondent incentives included a

summary o the survey results.

Exact sample sizes are provided in this report on a question-by-question basis. Panels are not

guaranteed to be representative o the population. Unless otherwise noted, statistical data is

intended to be used or descriptive and not inerential purposes.

I you’re interested in joining one o Forrester’s research panels, you may visit us at http://Forrester.

com/Panel.

Forrester’s July 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey was elded to 75 marketing

leadership proessionals rom our ongoing Marketing & Strategy Research Panel. Te panel consists

o volunteers who join on the basis o interest and amiliarity with specic marketing and strategy

topics. For quality assurance, panelists are required to provide contact inormation and answer basic

questions about their rms’ revenue and budgets.

Forrester elded the survey rom July to August 2009. Respondent incentives included a summary

o the survey results.

Exact sample sizes are provided in this report on a question-by-question basis. Panels are not

guaranteed to be representative o the population. Unless otherwise noted, statistical data is

intended to be used or descriptive and not inerential purposes.






13

I you’re interested in joining one o Forrester’s research panels, you may visit us at http://Forrester.

com/Panel.

Cmpais Itrviwd Fr Tis Dcmt

Acxiom Corporation

Arbitron

Cablevision

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC)

Canoe Ventures

Carat

ClearSaleing

Ensequence

Experian

First ennessee Bank

IAC/InterActiveCorp

Johnson & Johnson

L’Oréal

Merkle

NDS

Nielsen

OMD

Prudential

Simulmedia

Starcom

Te Allant Group

RA

Visible World

Yahoo!

Yellow Book

enDnoTeS

1 Print advertising will total $44 billion and radio $16.5 billion in 2009. Source: Forrester Research Online

Advertising And Classieds Forecast, 4/09 (US only).

2 Marketing leaders must work with their teams, agencies, and media partners to update their vision

o integrated marketing in order to counter the eects o the meltdown and to harness social media.

omorrow’s integrated marketing blends multichannel branded content with social media and strives to

create a media analysis eedback inrastructure to enable message and media tuning on the y. See the

August 24, 2009, “Te Media Meltdown Makes Integrated Marketing An Imperative” report.

3 In 2009, paid search will total $12.9 billion o the $25.1 billion US online advertising market. Almost 60%

o the $7.8 billion in online display ad spending is perormance based. (Classieds account or the other

$4.4 billion o online advertising spending.) Source: Forrester Research Online Advertising And Classieds

Forecast, 4/09 (US only).






14

4 Pre-roll, mid-roll, and post-roll ads oer easy entry or brand advertisers amiliar with the production and

purchase process or television ads; online video ollows the same approach. Plus, prolieration o online

video content and advances in video players and ad servers means better inventory, more consumer usage,

and better measurement or advertisers. See the July 6, 2009, “US Interactive Marketing Forecast, 2009 o2014” report.

5 Nearly 60% o the marketing leaders with V budgets whom we surveyed liked the idea o running V spots

online. argeted V ads were also popular. Source: June 2009 Global Marketing Leadership Online Survey.

6 Tis happens every 10 years or so. In 1988, the V networks tried to und a Nielsen alternative, and in 1999,

the Committee on Nationwide elevision Audience Measurement abandoned a $50 million project. Source:

Gale Metzger, “Will the Industry Pay wice?” MediaPost , October 5, 2009 (http://www.mediapost.com/

publications/index.cm?a=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=114847).

7 Like Nielsen, magazine measurement vendor MRI is beginning to integrate campaign eectiveness data via

its Gf Starch acquisition.8 Attribution oerings rom vendors are appearing in various parts o the interactive marketing value chain,

including site analytics tools, ad-serving tools, intelligence dashboards, and media-buying services. See the

October 20, 2009, “Te Interactive Attribution Landscape” report; see the July 28, 2008 “Attribution” report;

and see the February 19, 2009, “A Framework For Multicampaign Attribution Measurement” report.













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