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  • Future Technology Trends For the

    Ultra Broadband Era

    Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom

  • Broadband, Speed, Traffic Flows, Experience

    OTT engagement model

    Technology Futures Access, Video, Optronics, Virtualization

    Future broadband challenges

    Agenda

  • Broadband Connections Pass 1 billion in 2016

    WW Fixed Broadband Connections (millions) Drivers Multi-screen

    High definition++

    Online gaming

    OTT/IP TV

    User-generated content

    Enablers Video futures

    Photonic chip futures

    Network virtualization

    728 805

    882 950 1015 1074

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

    Source: IDC Worldwide Telecom Services Database, July 2013.

  • Speed Matters 100 Mb/s is the New 10 Mbp/s

    Speed upgrades at no extra charge.

    Synchronous services that match upload speeds with download speeds at no extra charge.

    Solid ARPU driven by uptake of multi-play and TV services

    From 3 Mb

    6 Mb

    12 Mb

    15 Mb

    30 Mb

    50 Mb

    100 Mb

    To 20 Mb

    50 Mb

    100 Mb

    200 Mb

    300 Mb

    500 Mb

    1 Gb

    1 Tb

  • Changing Traffic Patterns

    Cloud & social are pushing more content UP the network

    All Internet sharing starts with uploading

    Smarter home gateways drive more content being moved around

    Enhanced Media Servers

    Multiple tuners, terabytes of storage

  • What Happens When 50B Machines Connect

    Dramatically broad range of traffic patterns Challenge traffic engineering and management

    Demand new service definitions (SLAs)

    Smart Watch Chatty, Low bandwidth

    Smart Train Session-based

    Enormous bandwidth

  • Ultra BB is More than a Build & Sales

    Property Management Network Marketing Distribution Product

    Create fiber-ready buildings & neighbor-hoods

    Relations with property mngrs

    Community relationships

    Incorporate intelligence into build planning

    Lower cost equipment

    External deployment

    Target tenants & property owners

    Build brand equity for fiber ready areas

    Create fiber brand elements for SMB

    New seller tools to target neighbor-hoods & buildings

    Service delivery links for process improvement

    Competitive priced E2E fiber services

    Lower cost/lower SLA services

    Consumer-like experience for SMB.

    It is a transformation of the way to build and sell

  • Customer Experience

    Better segmentation continuum of needs

    How do you know when Facebook goes down? Fundamental flaw in managing customer experience.

    How do you monitor to know you have a problem, and how do you respond when a customer does have a problem?

    Digital first experience Self-service portals for subscriber self-monitoring

    Embracing sophisticated users

    Passive User Non-use of video streaming services and/or downloads

    Power User Frequent use of video streaming

    services and/or downloads

  • OTT Engagement Model

    Fat Dumb Pipe

    Standard business model owning the customer, providing the infrastructure. Little value-added beyond speed. Demand grows faster than revenue.

    Smart Pipe

    Evolved brokerage model -- Add value to subscriber and to OTT provider. Monetization through: policy control, billing, subscriber and network intelligence, CDNs, APIs.

  • OTT Participation Model

    TV Everywhere

    TV/web interaction

    Open platform for service mash-up

  • Access Technologies Trends

    FTTH speeds are impressive, but expensive Objectives

    Prolong the copper lifecycle Integration of copper, fiber, wireless Optimize DSL and copper in rural areas

    Targeted fiber rollout Transition from DSL to fiber in densely populated

    fiber-hoods FTTdp and FTTB can be 30% cheaper than FTTH

    Wireless local loop Economically extend the reach

    FTTB

    CO

    CO

    Fiber

    FTTC/N Street Cabinet

    Copper

    FTTdp Fiber

    Copper/VDSL CO

    Emergence of Mixed Economies, Multi-Access Network

    CO Fiber

    Wireless Local Loop CO

  • Video Futures A Better Visual Experience Data will increase by 65x in next few years

    4K UHDTV = 4 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

    8K UHDTV = 16 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

    4K HD SD

    8K

    4K/8K will be the first format that is Internet only. -Reed Hastings, Netflix

  • Photonic Chip Futures - Towards 1 Tb/s

    Electrical Elements Photonic Elements..

    Cost

    Greener Density

    Power Size

    Multiple photonic components integrated onto a single chip, similar to the electronic integrated circuit.

    Benefits of photonic integration are higher density, lower power, less space and lower TCO.

    Improves network efficiency as we evolve to higher bit rates.

  • Network Futures - Virtualization

    Real things

    Multi-vendor interconnect.

    Failover and resiliency in software.

    Quick failure service designs.

    User controls,

    Role and extent of orchestration,

    SDN interconnect,

    Virtual CPE,

    APIs are difficult to use.

    Benefits

    Operators are committed

    DT TeraStream

    Telefonica UNICA

    AT&T Domain 2.0

    Many others

    It is not about 100% or nothing

    The Programmable Network increases agility, reduces costs and speeds innovation applications.

  • Future Broadband Challenges

    Vastly diverse use cases Videos and social feeds = speed, Applications & devices = reliability.

    Demand more atomic tools Monitoring, Understanding bandwidth usage, Smart congestion management, Software-defined networks, Big data.