future submarine through-life support cost modelling … lsc group presentation.… · future...
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Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept Phase
Nira Chamberlain CMath FIMA CSciModelling and Simulation Capability Lead.
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LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services
company
LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services
company
LSC Group
We work closely with clients to enhance their decision-
making capabilities
We work closely with clients to enhance their decision-
making capabilities
200 people across 4 key locations and numerous
customer sites
200 people across 4 key locations and numerous
customer sites
Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD
centre
Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD
centre
Our mission is to make complex decision-making
informed, precise and collaborative …..
Our mission is to make complex decision-making
informed, precise and collaborative …..
…enabling better decisions throughout the asset life
cycle
…enabling better decisions throughout the asset life
cycle
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Modelling and Simulation roles
• LSC Groups Modelling and Simulation Lead
• Future Submarine Design for Minimum Cost Manager
• Concept phase investment appraisal through life cost studies for systems selection.
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The Problem
• Most of the problems within the concept phase of a project are messy and complex, often entailing considerable uncertainty
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The Challenge
• Because of the nature of the project the cost team were being asked Demonstration Phase style questions within the concept phase.
• It was widely believed that there is a relatively small window in which significant whole life cost savings can be engineered into the boat.
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Window of Opportunity
• This is due to the well known fact that 75-80% of the cost of a product is determined during the design phase.
Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In Service
Cumulative Life Cycle Cost
Committed CostsIncurred Costs
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Traditional Approach
• “Wet finger in the air”
• Cost estimates based on physical characteristics.
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Issues with traditional approach
• In terms of “Wet finger in the air”
• The assumptions become the solution.
• A guess will always be replaced with a guess.
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Issues with traditional approach
• In terms of cost estimating based on physical characteristics; finding significant cost deltas between the options proved to be problematic.
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The Approach
• Recognise that we are being asked different questions
• Instead of bending the client to fit the model, we have to develop the model(s) to fit the client.
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Modelling Philosophy
• A “guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves”
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Guess Guess Guess Guess
Concept DesignConcept Concept Design
Logical Argument
Logical Argument
Logical Argument
Logical Argument
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Addressing the Challenge:
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Addressing the Challenge:
What are the cost consequences of the design characteristics?
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Logical Argument Based Model
• LABM uses advanced quantitative methods, modelling, problem structuring, analytical techniques to examine assumptions, facilitate an in -depth understanding and from this develop a practical solution which is transparent and challengeable.
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Addressing the Challenge:
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Another challenge
• What happens when the client ask about maintenance cost of a system that never existed on the previous platform?
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Modelling Philosophy
• A “guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument evolves”
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Addressing the Challenge:
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Addressing the Challenge:
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Addressing the Challenge:
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The challenge
• How can we relate cost to performance and requirement?
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Case Study Demonstration:
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Other Bespoken Cost Models
1. The Dynamical Probability Analysis Tool.
– Rapid fire but robust Monte-Carlo Simulation Tool.
2. The Spend to Save Model– Measure the effectiveness of cost reduction
strategies.
3. Heuristic Engineering Analysis Tool– Captures the Engineering Impact of costed
solutions.
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Integrating models into a suite of tools
LABM
DPAT
CPTO
MM
Simulation
HEAT
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Conclusion
• In the concept phase if the client ask you Through Life demonstration phase style of questions; it is better to adapt your model(s) to the client than trying to adapt the client to the models.
• A guess will always be replaced by a guess but a logical argument will always evolve.
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References
Planning
Implementation
Management
Requirements
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