Future Scenarios

WAIGFJuly 27-29, 2011Ben Akoh, IISD

Outline

• Introduction• Why Important?• Existing Scenarios, e.g. ISOC’s • Four Cyber Security Scenarios • Activities • Close

Why important?

4 cybercriminality scenariosPolicy Reform (Regulated Market)

Unregulated Market VIPNet Internet Commons

- Completely policy regulated market space developed to harmonize economic growth. - IP addresses exist but cost of access is prohibitive – govt allocates critical internet resources.- IP addresses that are issued by govts who can transact business internationally. Others are unable to do so. - A black market of government provided IP addresses runs parallel to those in the unregulated market

- Absence of market forces , regulation or policies- No tech innovation in internet/mobile.- Total chaos in market - Infrastructure exists but services remain challenging. - increased spamming results -> breakdown of global business.- inter regional trade affected. - No global trade takes place. IP address and access devices abound but quality bad.

- A separate internet network - More secure IP system guarantees business transactions, entertainment and high speed communication for the rich. - Powerful institutions protect their clients - barriers of entry to poor.- Internet access becomes status symbol. - Access created through single IP proxy shared by multiple users.

- Different stakeholders involved in shaping critical internet resources- Africans engage in local/global policy.- IP addresses issues managed by a multistakeholder community- Marginalised private sector engagement still abound

Activities (Rules)

• We shall discuss in four small groups of 4-5 each

• No right or wrong answers• No debates about imaginations or dreams• Each answer should be a statement• Each group will document their statements

and present them to plenary• Each group has a chair and rapporteur

Activity 1

• Examine the four scenarios – In 10 years from now, build a few more details specifically focused on cyber security in the West African Region (7 mins)– There is no limit to your imagination– Write every thing that comes to mind– Wear the “hat” of your group.

• Private sector• Government / regulator• Society• Unregulated

Activity 2

• For each scenario, respond to the questions: – What should be done to attain this scenario? (5

mins)– What should be done to avoid this scenario? (5

mins)– Involve stakeholders, processes, issues in your

thinking.

Activity 3

• Plenary– Each group reports back. – What are your future scenarios? – What needs to be done to attain them? – What needs to be done to avoid them?