future scenario planning
TRANSCRIPT
Future Scenario PlanningDr. Nita RollinsFuturist, Resource Interactive
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Brussels
Futuring & Thought Leadership
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
CHALLENGE:TO ENVISION FOUR FUTURE (2016) SCENARIOS OF OHIO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AS AN INNOVATION HUB
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL
INNOVATION, ARGUABLY, OF THE LAST FORTY YEARS?
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Key Innovations Since 1970
INTERNET 1970-1978CT SCAN 1971
MRI 1974ENDORPHINS 1975
PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976ONCOGENES 1976RNA SPLICING 1977
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
ARCHAEA 1977GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980
DNA FORENSICS 1984UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992
GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997Wednesday, May 4, 2011
HOW ABOUT FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
INNOVATIONS?
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 1995
COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS 1987
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
$CONTINUED
REGULATION--CONCENTRATED
RISK
FINANCIAL DEREGULATION--
DISTRIBUTED RISK
HOUSING MARKET STAGNATION
HOUSING MARKET GROWTH
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Unconsumption
SXSWFrom:Dr. Nita Rollins, FuturistResource Interactive’s RI:Lab
1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario
Text1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling
1980s civic & policy orgs, business, military, government use technique for causality
SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful
2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible
3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these “critical uncertainties” and a few relevant “predetermined elements”, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populations
FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNINGUSING A MATRIX
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
“ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE
ORDINARY...
BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE
UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL.
SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN “AHA EFFECT” THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A
THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS.”
ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGE
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY
SOCIALTECHNOLOGICALECONOMICENVIRONMENTALPOLITICAL
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTHTRANSFORMATIONCONSTRAINTCOLLAPSE
Jim Dator’s Alternative Future ArchetypesWednesday, May 4, 2011
COLLAPSE
GROWTH
CONSTRAINT
TRANSFORMATION
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
COLLAPSECONSTRAINT
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION
Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION
CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE
PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY:
BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
AXES IDEAS:
1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR)
2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER)
3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS)
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE
CLASSIC QUESTION, “IS IT CORRECT?”
BUT RATHER, “IS IT USEFUL IN
PRODUCING SUCCESS?” Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Thanks and good luck!
s
Dr. Nita RollinsFuturist, Resource Interactive
Wednesday, May 4, 2011