future prospects for the cumbrian lakes: applications of ... prospects f… · • protech provides...
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Future prospects for the Cumbrian lakes:
Applications of the PROTECH lake model
Dr Alex Elliott
CEH
Contact: [email protected]
Future threats
• Nutrient enrichment
• Climate change
• Species invasion/loss
• All inter-linked
PROTECH
(Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
Day of year
Ch
loro
ph
yll a
(m
g m
-3)
• PROTECH predicts the biomass and species
composition of the algal community giving it a unique
world status
PROTECH
Future threats: Nutrient enrichment
Windermere
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 100 200 300
Baseline
245 scenario
430 scenario
Day of Year
• Testing future strategies for
United Utilities
• Sewage treatment work
improvements
North basin South basin
Future threats: Climate change
Temperature difference (°C
)
Proportional change
in nutrient load
Maxim
um
perc
en
tag
e
cyan
ob
acte
rial ab
un
dan
ce
30
40
50
• Changes in maximum
abundance of
cyanobacteria
Present day
Future threats: Species loss
• Vendace (Coregonus albula)
• Maximum length 250 mm
• Low temperatures (<15°C)
• High oxygen levels (>5 mg L-1)
• To predict how vendace habitat volume will be affected
in Bassenthwaite Lake under predicted future climate
change
Bassenthwaite Lake
• Max Depth = 19.0 m
• Mean Depth = 5.3 m
• Length = 6.2 km
• Volume = 27.9 x 106 m3
• Area = 5.28 km2
Future threats: Species loss
Future threats: Species loss
>18.5 oC
Habitat volume
• Volume of water that does NOT exceed critical
temperature and oxygen limits
Summer
Vendace habitat volume
Future threats: Species loss
>18.5 oC
Habitat volume
• Volume of water that does NOT exceed critical
temperature and oxygen limits
Late Summer
Vendace habitat volume
O2<2 mg L-1
Future threats: Species lossThe method
PROTECH
Cloud
Weather scenarios
Regional
Climate
Model
Wind Air
temperature
PresentFuture
(2070-90)
20 years of algal and temperature
output for both present and future
Weather scenarios (UK Met Office)
LOX
Habitat
volume
Future threats: Species loss
Comparison between present and future
Surface water temperature
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month of year
Wa
ter
tem
pe
ratu
re (
oC
)
Future mean
Present mean
Future threats: Species loss
Comparison between present and future
Deep water temperature
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month of year
Wa
ter
tem
pe
ratu
re (
oC
)
Future Mean
Present Mean
Future threats: Species lossThe future for Bassenthwaite Lake
• Temperature had the biggest effect
• Every year in the future has days of 0 habitat volume
Number of consecutive days with zero modelled habitat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Nom inal year
Nu
mb
er
of
co
nse
cu
tive d
ays
present day
future
7 day threshold
Habitat volume
Conclusions
• Predicting the impact of the future requires knowledge
of the present
• CEH’s PROTECH model provides a method for
utilising that knowledge
• PROTECH provides a tried and test way of quantifying
those future changes and the impact of management
strategies
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
Day of year
Ch
loro
ph
yll a
(m
g m
-3)