future periscope: europe in 2030 and beyond · future periscope: europe in 2030 and beyond •...
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Future periscope: Europe in
2030 and beyond
• Stephanie Daimer, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and
Innovation Research
• Jerome Glenn, Millennium Project
• Nikolaos Konstantinos, DG Research, European Commission
• Gernot Spiegelberg, Siemens Corporate Technology
• Moderator: Richard L. Hudson, Science|Business
• (Video: Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever)
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Future periscope: Europe in
2030 and beyond
Stephanie Daimer
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation
Research ISI
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VERA Scenario 3:
Solutions apart –Local is beautiful
© VERA consortium, 2015
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Getting Ready for Europe 2030
Jerome C. Glenn, CEOThe Millennium Project
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Inevitability of New Economics
• Concentration of wealth is increasing
• Income gaps are widening
• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm
• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor
• Future technologies can replace much of human labor
• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as usual” surprise free forecast
• What can we do about this?
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The Millennium Project has conducting a similar study, for global 2050 issues
It has created three Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios
You can draw on these for European Implications:
1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag
2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair
3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy
Background at:
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/AI-Work.html
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Some Factors to consider
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Next Technologies (NT) = all together:
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Synthetic Biology & Genomics
Computational Science
Cloud & Big Data Analytics
Artificial & Augmented Reality
Nanotechnology
IoT, Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody, the Semantic Web
Quantum computing
Tele-Presence, Holographic Communications
Intelligence augmentation
Collective Intelligence
3D/4D Printing of Materials and Biology
Drones, Driverless Cars (and other autonomous vehicles)
Conscious-Technology
Synergies Among These
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Synergies of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites, AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering
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Three forms of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence
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Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991
By 2030 millions of
people could become
augmented geniuses, and
what could they create?
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How to keep track and anticipate such change?
Create the
European Knowledge Space
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A European Knowledge Space to improve the collective intelligence of Europe
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The Knowledge Future: Intelligent policy choices for Europe 2050
Policy Recommendations
Principle 1: An open knowledge system in Europe
C: Create a European Knowledge Space …. An on-line framework open to all citizens for research, analysis, debate and sharing, this will enable policy-makers, business leaders, scientists, technologists and the general public to access all knowledge available, to exchange information and to deliberate options for addressing societal challenges. An integrated framework of policies, incentives and ICT tools to permit greater sharing, debate and participation in the results and challenges of fast-changing science and technology to address societal challenges, it can form a core objective of Framework Programmes of the future.
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For further information
Jerome C. Glenn+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
www.StateoftheFuture.org
Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html
2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html
Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html
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Future Periscope
Three scenarios in five minutes from EU R&I
Strategic ForesightNikos Kastrinos
Team leader: Foresight
European Commission, DG Research and InnovationAll views presented are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the European Commission
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Three scenarios from our recent Strategic Foresight exercise*
• Data-trading: (materialist culture and people own all their "personal data") What if … aggressive protection of personal data as IPR?
• A state of abundant and (environmentally) cheap energy: The Solar eco-bike (inclusive society with an ecological economy) The New Marigold Hotel (cheap and abundant energy and new sources of value)
• The rising politics of health: sick-healthy-enhanced; health inequalities taking over the politics of "equal opportunities"
* Strategic foresight : Towards the third strategic programme of Horizon 2020 http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/strategic-foresight-pbKI0215938/
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Data-trading: unlikely and counter-intuitive
• Why such a scenario?• Data-driven innovation: a promising business area; and• Minimum income guarantees are increasingly demanded
• Is strong protection of personal data possible?• Is free use of personal data (of others) acceptable?• Will security trump privacy?
• In Europe 2030 much more data about everything (including all of us) will be accessible to everybody.
• Secrets will be scarce, expensive and be subject to fast diminishing returns.• Keeping people curious will be the challenge of the future.
• Or will block-chain technology change all that?
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A state of abundant and (environmentally) cheap energy
• The promise:
• The cost of renewables is falling
• Batteries and infrastructures are improving
• Energy efficiency is gaining ground
• The challenge:
• Decarbonising transitions – switching costs, correctly pricing public goods, organizing for the circular economy etc.
• The energy needs of war
• Geopolitical reshuffling
• In Europe 2030, politics permitting, energy will be cheaper and more environmentally friendly making important positive contributions to people's standard of living.
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The rising politics of health
• "Aspiration" increasingly trumps "fate" in life-span and quality-of-life
• Health inequalities (and inequalities of access to health-care) become politically important.
• Health research becomes even more politicised (e.g. with strong arguments for and against ethical regulations)….
• In Europe in 2030 public health budgets will be more important than today, and public insurance systems will be covering a lot of what today is seen as "enhancement". Sports leagues for the "enhanced" may have already taken hold.
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Thank you for your attention
ec.europa.eu/research/foresight/index.cfm
visit the EU booth
go to ec.europa.eu/research
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Session FUTURE PERISCOPE
MOBILITY 4.0Gernot Spiegelberg
R&D Siemens AG, CT RDA CES
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Urbanization Demographic changeClimate change
Utilize sustainable
power source for
mobility
Spend less energy in
total for mobility
Support people
to get from
A to B hassle free
Use intermodality to
handle peoples
demand for mobility
Safely and convenient
extend mobility
"Zero Emission“ and
“Zero Noise”
by EV
“Smart Mobility“ and
“Smart Logistics”
through Telematics
“Lifestyle“with
“Zero Accidents” by
Autonomous Driving
eMobility Autonomous Devices
Will lead to
"smarter" Mobility” with
“Services based on Cloud Information” ? © Foto: Nissan © Foto: Fotolia
Ride on Demand
Siemens Picture of the Future gives information regarding Global Megatrends
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Ride on Demand
eCar
3 independent trends converging lead to new concepts
Autonomous car
Mobility as a Service
no further need
for
private ownership
eCaras autonomous agent in Internet of Things
focus on TCO,
reliability and
customer satisfaction
Infrastructure
optimized on TCO
Infrastructure
focused on TCO
the future of mobility based on customers view: “Mobility as a Service”
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towards intermodal transportationparametrised transportation seat
with virtual personal belongings
Cloud-based
Systems
personally parametrised
comfort via cloud data
new kind of understanding of devices may occur :personally parametrised transportation seat
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The world will change…..…..let us change the world