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global market forecast

futurepayloadsfreight forecast2013 2032

Introduction

e-mail: [email protected]

www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2013

Contents

introduction 05

02. summary data 54

01. executive summary 08

North America 38 Asia-Pacifi c 40Europe 42Middle East 44Latin America 46CIS 48Africa 50Key results 52

Global Market Forecast 5

Air freight essential to world trade

There is no disguising the diffi culties faced by freight carriers in recent years. On a worldwide basis, freight traffi c growth has been impacted in the years following the global fi nancial crisis that struck in 2008. This had a direct impact on people’s willingness to spend and hence on international trade growth, which grew at just two per cent from 2008, with much of this coming from the emerging markets.

The more mature markets, especially Europe, have been the most negatively impacted by on-going sovereign debt issues and resulting austerity measures. This has very clearly affected air freight, as these are the markets with the large numbers of consumers of high value products, which tend to use air freight. However, air transportation is, and will continue to be hugely important to world trade, carrying over 30% of all world trade by value.

These recent diffi culties, combined with pressure from other modes of transport have caused some to question whether there has been a longer-term shift away from air freight. However, from an economic perspective, there are positive signs, with the world economy showing signs of improvement, and the risk from many of the previously identifi ed potential economic risks having diminished somewhat. Therefore, it is expected more robust growth will return to the air freight industry over the coming 12 months.

01

executive summary

Executive Summary

Freight traffi c growth next 20 years

4.8% CAGR

$157 billion

Business volume

$77 billionMid-size Large

2013-2032

871New deliveriesConversions

Units

413 458 605

824

430

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Small freighters Mid-Size freighters Large freighters

1,237

888 Converted

New build

over 870 neW-build aircraft Will be reQuired over the next tWo decades

ftk traffic groWth per region [2012-2032]

2,905

Freighter fl eet

1,645Beginning 2013 2032

X 1.8

CIS5.3%

Middle East4.8%

Africa5.1%

LatinAmerica5.1%

World4.8%

North America3.9%

Asia-Pacific5.5%

Europe4.8%

1,859

Global Market Forecast8 Global Market Forecast 9

Dedicated cargo operations per airport, 2012

2000 500 10 Traffic volume(weekly movements)

the global market forecast covers the WorldSource: OAG, DoT, Eurocontrol

150 traffic floWs197 airlines1,645 aircraft



Freight traffi cFreighter fl eet today

AsiaPacific

Europe & CIS

World figures 2013

NorthAmerica

AfricaLatin America

MiddleEast

34798

51339 47

3141561

285622

77

Fleet

1,645Operators

197

air freight industry in 2013Source: ASCEND, Airbus

• 1,645 dedicated freighter aircraft are fl ying today over 10 tonnes.

• 197 carriers operate these aircraft.

• North American carriers operate 49% of the installed cargo fl eet.

• 45% of freighters are mid-sized aircraft capable of carrying between 30 and 80 tonnes of goods.

• 61% of today’s cargo fl eet has been converted from passenger aircraft.

• Today, roughly 100 large freighters are parked as a result of the current industry situation.

• Air freight remains key in the supply chain even during periods of crisis.

• Speed, reliability and security have real value for businesses.

• In 2012, the average value for each kilogram transported by air was $127, while for ships it is approximately $1.10.

• In 2012, FTKs decreased by 3% globally, but freight traffi c has grown 7% since the crisis in 2008.

• Express services have proven more resilient through the economic diffi culties.

• Today 70% of the traffi c is from, to, or between emerging countries; up from 64% 10 years ago.

LatinAmerica

Europe CIS

Africa

North America Middle East

Air cargo traffic wheel, FTKs (billions) in 2012

AsiaPacific

56.130%

5.53%

13.17%

3921%

1.71%

68.435%

5.63%

north america, asia-pacific and europe combined represents 86% of the air cargo trafficSource: IATA, ATA, AEA, Airbus

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%2009

Q12010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

Emerging markets

Advanced economies

World

Year-over-year quarterly evolution of GDP by market type

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

Total world-wide trade evolution

History

Forecast

x 2


Economic indicatorsFreight Growth Drivers

WorldWide economic groWth is expected to strengthen through 2013Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

There is a high correlation between macro-economic drivers and the success of the air freight market.

• Several of the most important economic drivers are: - Economic activity. - World trade. - Private consumption. - Industrial production.

• Similar to the economy, much of the growth in the general air freight market is being driven by emerging markets.

• Within the mature markets, which have continued to struggle, economic growth is expected to return in late 2013.

• This return to economic growth will help to spur the air freight market into stronger growth in the near term.

• With an even higher correlation to air transportation, worldwide trade is expected to grow at 3.8% per year over the next 20 years.

WorldWide trade volumes are expected to more than double in the next 20 yearsSource: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Advanced economies (31)

Emerging economies (54)

Developing economies (119)

World GDP growth share (%)

History Forecast

1997

to 2

002

2002

to 2

007

2012

to 2

017

2017

to 2

022

2022

to 2

027

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2007

to 2

012

55%

40%

2027

to 2

032

25%

70%

1992

to 1

997

22%

75%

Emerging markets

World

Advanced economies

Quarter-over-quarter evolution (%)

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

265 262 253

856

2,038

3,526

432

578

757

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2012 2022 2032

Global Middle-Class*(Millions of people)

% of world population

World population

62%46%32%

8,4007,8007,100

North America

Europe & CIS

Otherx2

x4 Asia-Pacific

3,576

5,211

2,228

675 698 675


Economic indicatorsFreight Growth Drivers

• Industrial production is expected to nearly double over the next 20 years.

• Industrial production in emerging markets has more than tripled in the last 20 years and will nearly triple again in the next 20 years.

• In advanced markets, industrial production has grown by 30% over the last 20 years and will grow by 50% in the next 20.

• The middle-class is expected to reach 5 billion people by 2030; 3.5 billion of them living in the Asia-Pacific region, which will boost private consumption within the region.

• Worldwide private consumption is expected to return more than 2% per annum growth, helping to further drive economic growth and therefore air freight demand.

private consumption to groW in 2014Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus global middle-class* expected to rise to more

than 5 billion people by 2032Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Industrial Production by market (base year 2012 = 100)

Advanced Developing Emerging World

2032

2012

1992

industrial production driven by emerging economies Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

fastest groWth from traffic betWeen and Within emerging regionsSource: IATA, Seabury, US DOT, CAAC, Airbus

600

500

400

300

200

100

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

FTKs (billions)

CAGRGrowth Rate

2012-2032

2.9%

6.2%

5.2%

5.3%

Developed toDeveloped

Emerging toEmerging

Emerging toDeveloped

Developed toEmerging

History Forecast

4.8%

20-yearworld annual FTK growth

LatinAmerica

Europe & CIS

NorthAmerica

Africa& Middle East

6%6%

30%24%

5.1% 5.0%

4.8%

6.3%

6.6%

2032 2012

%

4.1%

3.9%

15%22%

7%7%

3%4% 18%

16%

21%21%

IndianSub-Continent

Asia-Pacific*

PRC

Traffic volumes & share evolution per region

Traffic growth rate (2012-2032)


Focus on Traffi c Growth

• Airbus’ Freight GMF forecasts an average annual freight traffi c growth rate of 4.8% over the next 20 years.

• Today, Asia Pacifi c (including India and the PRC) represents 36% of the world freight traffi c and 42% by 2032.

• Europe/CIS and North America combined accounted for 51% of the total traffi c in 2012, by 2032 although growing its share will be 45%.

• China is the largest driver of air cargo growth; today it represents 15%, by 2032 it will be 22% of the global market.

• Due in part to the expanding middle class in emerging countries, traffi c from mature to emerging is the second fastest growing segment of the industry.

the cargo market centre of gravity is sloWly but constantly moving toWard the east

* PRC and Indian Sub-Continent excluded

0 10 20 30 40 50

North America - Middle East

Europe - Pacific

Asia - Asia

Europe - Middle East

Europe - Indian Sub

South America - North America

Europe - Africa

Europe - South America

Asia - Europe

Asia - North America

North America - Asia

North America - PRC

Europe - North America

Europe - Asia

North America - Europe

Domestic PRC

PRC - Europe

Europe - PRC

Domestic USA

PRC - North America 6.4%

2.1%

6.7%

6.6%

7.5%

4.3%

5.2%

3.3%

6.3%

4.1%

4.2%

3.9%

5.0%

4.7%

4.5%

7.0%

4.2%

4.5%

3.7%

4.8%

2012

2032


Focus on Traffic Growth

top 20 largest floWs in 2032Source: GMF 2013

cagr

0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

10%

20%

30%

40%

Belly load factors evolution for passenger aircraft serving the US

Load

fact

or

X3

Last 10 airlines load factors*

Top 10 airlines load factors*

Global load factor

* Top 10 and Last 10 airlines from the 50 airlines with most traffic to/from the US


Belly Capacity vs Main-deck

• According to IATA, air freight carried in the belly hold of passenger aircraft represents nearly 50% of all air freight traffic.

• Airlines’ value the belly space capacity of their fleets as a complementary and/or opportunistic means of transporting cargo.

• Belly capacity, is and will remain, a key component of the air freight industry, allowing airlines to adjust capacity to demand. Going forward the air freight industry will require a capacity diversification similar to the passenger airlines.

• A trend towards larger passenger modules, such as the A350-900XWB/-1000XWB, will increase the available cargo capacity for mixed carriers.

• Over 8,000 twin-aisle passenger aircraft over 250 seats, with their associated belly cargo capacity, will be required over the next 20 years.

• However, because of the complexity, limitations and costs associated with managing belly space; load factors for example do not exceed 30% in twin aisle aircraft arriving or departing from the US.

a heterogeneous but relatively loW use of the belly capacity by the airlines (us international market)Source: US Department of Transportation Form 41


Express freight

• Express services have proven resilient to the crisis, with 4% growth on international trade while general cargo declined 5% in 2012.

• In 2012, Express focused carrier fl eets included 96 small freighters, 459 mid-size freighters and 145 large freighters; representing 43% of the world freighter fl eet.

• China will become one of the largest domestic express markets in the world, similar to the development the US market experienced through the ‘70s, '80s and '90s.

• The growth rate of express traffi c averaged 26% per year between 1977 and 1997 in the US.

• Airbus forecasts that Chinese domestic express will grow at 11% over the next 20 years, it will also grow at 9.3% in India.

2007

% traffic growth

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12%

-1%

-5%

-7%

-3%

1%

4%

11%

25%

20%

8%

4%

Express

General Cargo

express market has proved more resilient to the crisisSource: Seabury, Airbus


Fleet Evolution

• The 2008-2013 crisis impact, magnifi ed by high fuel prices, has prompted the retirement of numerous old cargo aircraft, which have been replaced by new and more effi cient freighters. Today 26% of the installed cargo fl eet is less than 15 years.

• To reduce unit costs, carriers are replacing narrow bodies with mid-size or large freighters; as in the US, small widebody aircraft are replacing the ageing fl eets of 727s and DC9s.

• Higher fl exibility and a good market fi t often makes mid-size freighters the choice when serving intra-regional operations.

• On operations over 4,000 nm, the range advantages of large widebody aircraft are clear.

• Under 3,000nm, 61% of the wide-body operations are performed by mid/small widebody aircraft.

• With challenges in the market, mid-size freighters are increasingly seen as a lower risk option to larger freighter types on all operations.

the integrators fleet for domestic purposes in the us is shifting for bigger and more fuel efficient modulesSource: ASCEND, Airbus

~ 8500 Weekly scheduled operations are performed by Wide-body freightersSource: OAG, DoT, Airbus

FedEx commences UPS commences

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

US integrators fleet evolution Jet Fuel price $US/gallon*Nr A/C

Widebody < 55t

Fuel price

Narrow-body

200

400

600

800

1,00

01,

200

1,40

01,

600

1,80

02,

000

2,20

02,

400

2,60

02,

800

3,00

03,

200

3,40

03,

600

3,80

04,

000

4,20

04,

400

4,60

04,

800

5,00

05,

200

5,40

0

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Distribution of the widebody freighter operations 2012

Regionaloperations

Inter-continentaloperations

Small widebody Large widebody

Distance (nm)

Weekly operations

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

Large freighter

Mid-size freighter

Small jet freighter

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Continuous replacement demand

Replacement wave from 2020

On-goingreplacement wave

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Aircraft Age

% of the fleet

Median age:

Small : 28.7

Mid-Size : 21.2

Large : 15.3

Large

Mid size

Small


Fleet Evolution

• The conversion business in the small jet freighter category is regaining momentum. Replacement wave began in 2012 with 16 conversions. A further 14 conversions have already been completed between January and July 2013.

• In the mid-size category, there is still a large amount of demandfor further replacement, with more than 170 mid-size freighters fl ying today over 30 years of age.

• Even though many large segment aircraft, such as older 747 models, have already been removed from their fl eets, a large replacement or retirement wave is expected to occur between 2020 and 2025.

age distribution of cargo aircraft flying in 2013Source: ASCEND

high replacement reQuirement in the coming yearsSource: ASCEND, Airbus


Conversion vs. New build freighters

• Today, the freighter fleet includes 1,001 converted aircraft and 644 new-build aircraft.

• A carrier will opt for a converted aircraft to serve markets subject to big seasonality effects due to their low capital costs and utilisation rates.

• In more traffic intensive markets, airlines typically prefer more fuel efficient new build aircraft.

• Due to the lower demand and high fuel costs recently, the number of conversions has been negatively effected as airlines absorb new build freighter deliveries.

• Over the next 20 years, the air cargo industry will require over 1,800 converted aircraft and over 870 new built freighters.

• From our analysis the demand for converted aircraft can be supported by appropriate aircraft leaving the passenger fleet.

Africa Europe & CIS Middle East North America Latin America Asia Pacific

172

7

371

13854

6

108

7

5 526

134

728

142 147

215

53

146

37 9< 45t

> 45t

Converted

New-build

26

fleet in service in 2013: conversion vs. neW-build. 39% of the freighters are neW-build aircraftSource: ASCEND, Airbus


Small Freighters

• In numbers:

– 23% of today’s fl eet in service.

– 1,180 hours per year in average utilisation.

• Thanks to their fl exibility and versatility small freighters have a broad spectrum of uses:

– Feeders for integrators. – Transport over terrain, where other forms of transport are

diffi cult or impossible. – As a link for isolated populations.

• The express market boom in China and India will boost the number of small freighters from 380 to more than 600 aircraft by 2032.

Units

380 376

4

229

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2032

Stay in service

Replacement

Growth

609

fleet in service: small freighters

small freighter fleet regional distribution beginning of 2013

Source: ASCEND

Europe87CIS

6

Middle East8

Africa29

LatinAmerica47

Asia-Pacific92

World380

North America111


Mid-sized Freighters

• In numbers: – 45% of the fl eet in service.

– 3,950 hours per year in average utilisation of new build mid-sized freighters.

– 1,250 hours per year in average utilization of converted mid-sized freighters.

• Mid-sized freighters are used for both regional and inter-continental operations, with intra-regional markets expected to boom in the coming years. For example Intra-Asian traffi c is expected to grow at 6.1% per year over the next 20 years.

• Mid-size freighters are used by integrators who typically need a broad spectrum of aircraft size to optimise their networks.

• This segment is expected to reach 1,294 units by 2032, from 744 units at the end of 2012.

• Mid-size aircraft are being used to open emerging fl ows with greater effi ciency.

Units

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2013 2032

Stay in service

1294

Growth 550

744Replacement 687

57

fleet in service: mid-siZe freighters

mid-siZe freighters fleet regional distribution beginning of 2013

Source: ASCEND

Europe111

CIS34

Middle East20

Africa21

LatinAmerica26

Asia-Pacific54

World744

North America478


Large Freighters

• In numbers:

– 32% of today’s fl eet in service.

– 3,850 hours per year in average utilisation of new build large freighters.

– 2,900 hours per year in average utilisation of converted large freighters.

• Large freighters are mainly used on long haul operations between the three main markets: USA, Europe and Asia.

• Due to imbalances in the direction of freight traffi c fl ows and high fuel prices, carriers are increasingly selecting freighters capable of carrying between 85 and 100t tonnes instead of even larger aircraft.

• The fl eet of large aircraft will reach over 1,000 aircraft by 2032.

Units

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2013 2032

Stay in service

1002

Growth 481

521Replacement 407

114

fleet in service: large freighters

large freighter fleet regional distribution beginning of 2013

Source: ASCEND

Europe80CIS

21

Middle East33

Africa6

LatinAmerica4

Asia-Pacific168

World521

North America209

• $28 billion in revenue from domestic operations in 2011.

• 90% of the US domestic market is absorbed by express carriers.

• Overall the US cargo market is expected to grow at 3.9% forecasted traffic growth over the next 20 years.

North America has the largest fleet today, and will in 20 years. Even though the domestic market has struggled in recent years, all of the signs point to a market that is beginning to stabilise. US citizens are still the number one consumer market in the world and rely heavily on the air transportation industry to deliver products fast and with a high level of reliability. The domestic market is relatively mature, but is expected to grow at 2.1% over the next 20 years mainly thanks to the continuous development of internet trade and sustained demand for air transportation in the manufacturing industry’s supply chain as it strives for leaner operations. Overall the North American cargo market is expected to grow at 3.9% mainly driven by the trade with emerging economies with flexible mid-size freighters dominating demand in the region.

North America

Small Mid-size Large

Number of new deliveries & conversions

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

641

272

90

NEW DELIVERIES & CONVERSIONS

RealGDP

2.5%

EndFleet

1,062

ECONOMY

Traffic 2012-2032 CAGR

3.9%

TRAFFIC

Start fleet Beginning 2013

798

FLEET

Results


• Asia-Pacific air cargo traffic is expected to grow at 5.5% per annum over the next 20 years.

• 20% of world air freight traffic was to or from Asia-Pacific 10 years ago

• 30% of world air freight traffic will be to or from Asia-Pacific in 2032

Today, the Asia Pacific region is driving the growth of the air freight industry, averaging a 5% annual growth rate in the last 10 years. This has occurred despite the dramatic slowdown in trade with North America and Europe during the financial crisis. On top of continued growth expectations for general cargo, express cargo is forecast to boom in the region. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, more than 250 million Chinese will earn more than $15 000/year making the Chinese middle class one of the biggest in the world. Simultaneously, e-commerce is growing at an incredible pace - Ali baba (China’s biggest e-commerce site) is larger than eBay and Amazon combined, generating $170 billion of revenue in 2012. As a result, the small freighter fleet in China reached 50 units in 2013 compared to just 2 units in 2002. Overall, Asia-Pacific will become the biggest region in terms of traffic by 2032, with 30% of the total traffic; this is thanks to a 5.5% annual growth rate over the next 20 years.

Asia-Pacific



400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

228

354

342


RealGDP

4.5%

EndFleet

970

ECONOMY


5.5%

TRAFFIC


314

FLEET

Results


• 6 years worth of FTK growth have been lost due to the crisis

• Economic recovery forecast to accelerate through 2014, helping to drive air freight

• 4.8% annual growth expected over the next 20 years

The on-going debt crisis in Europe has continued to put downward pressure on the economy and consumption in the region, directly affecting the intra-regional market and imports. But, economic growth is expected to return in 2014. Illustrating these difficult times, FTK levels in 2012 from the European markets are at the same level as achieved in 2010 or even 2007 levels. However, European carriers are adapting, achieving relative success by adopting a more aggressive strategy through optimisation of their hubs and fleets. Despite the crisis, some countries have performed well, especially in eastern Europe. For example, Turkey’s economy has grown by 8% between 2008 and 2012, while air trade increased by 31% in the same period. Overall, the Airbus forecast for Europe is for annual growth of 4.8%, driven mainly by trade with emerging regions, such as Africa and Asia.

Europe


Number of New deliveries & conversions

200

150

100

50

0

170

134

65


RealGDP

1.8%

EndFleet

401

ECONOMY


4.8%

TRAFFIC


278

FLEET

Results


• Middle East’s fleet will more than double in the next 20 years

• 11.4% growth rate in ATKs in 2012, against a world average of just 0.4%

• 2% of worldwide fleet 20 years ago; 4% today and 6% forecast by 2032

Middle East carriers are quickly becoming established as key players’ in the freight market. The cargo carriers in the region are replicating the success of passenger carriers by utilising the Middle East’s strategic position to its advantage through the development of key cities as hubs for global freight traffic. As such, their market share on traffic between Europe and Asia has significantly grown in recent years. According to IATA data on ATKs (Available Tonne Kilometres), Middle Eastern carriers achieved an impressive 11.4% growth rate in 2012, compared to 0.4% worldwide. This success is due to ambitious strategies developed around the hub concept. On top of the use of large freighters on established flows, Middle East carriers are efficiently using mid-size aircraft on emerging flows. The Middle East fleet will grow from 61 units to over 160 dedicated freighters by 2032.

Middle East


Number of New deliveries & conversions

100

80

60

40

20

0

60

83

7


RealGDP

3.7%

EndFleet

164

ECONOMY


4.8%

TRAFFIC


61

FLEET

Results


• 5.1% growth expected over the next 20 years

The region has generally avoided the large slumps created by the economic downturn of the last several years. Even with some difficulties, the region’s carriers have experienced some signs of stabilisation in the first half of 2013. Longer term, Latin American cargo traffic is expected to grow at 5,1% per annum over the next 20 years. The main markets will still be the largest economies such as Brazil or Mexico. However, smaller countries will play a more and more significant role. For example, Peru is pushing to develop a multimodal hub that combines sea and air cargo. North America and Europe will remain the two biggest trade partners of Latin America accounting for 56% of the traffic by 2032. These markets, combining long-haul distances and relatively thin demand are well suited for mid-size aircraft, where a number of carriers are already operating aircraft, such as the A330-200F on routes linking South America to Miami.

Latin America



80

60

40

20

0

64

4

61


RealGDP

4.0%

EndFleet

139

ECONOMY


5.1%

TRAFFIC


77

FLEET

Results


• 25% of the total air freight traffic was with Europe in 2012

• 70% of the CIS’s GDP in 2012 came from Russia

• 5.3% per year expected growth in air freight traffic over the next 20 years

Despite promising growth perspectives in Russia and the rest of the CIS, cargo operations have been impacted by the economic situation in the EU zone. IHS Global Insight forecasts 2.9% GDP growth in the region for 2013, with countries such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan expected to be the highest performers. However Russia will still dominate the regions economy with almost 70% of GDP in 2012 and more than 65% by 2032. Links between China and Russia are strengthening along with trade between the two countries. In the space of 20 years the total bilateral exchanges have multiplied by 14. Its value surpassed 68 billion euros last year. Air freight between CIS and China by weight increased from 4.4% in 2002 to 11.1% in 2012. The Airbus forecast for CIS air freight traffic growth is 5.3% per annum over the next 20 years, highlighting the huge potential of this region.

CIS



40

30

20

10

0

37

20

11


RealGDP

3.3%

EndFleet

80

ECONOMY


5.3%

TRAFFIC


61

FLEET

Results


• 5.1% per annum growth in air freight over the next 20 years

• 6% growth in air freight traffic in 2012, according to IATA

• $198.5 billion in trade between African countries and China in 2012

According to the IMF, Africa's economy is now growing faster than Asia. Africa is an expansive continent, with ground transportation difficult in many areas. It is therefore unsurprising that air is the best way to quickly transport goods from one country to another. In addition, African trade is diversifying. Europe accounted for 60% of the African trade 10 years ago, it accounts for only 52% today and is expected to decrease to less than 48% by 2032. Trade with PRC is one of the fastest growing trade links, with a forecast of over 6.5% growth rate over the next 20 years. China is investing heavily in Africa. Negligible in 2000, trade with China hit $198.5 billion in 2012. By comparison, U.S.- African trade volume stood at $108.9 billon. Research from Standard Chartered estimates that trade between China and Africa will hit $385 billion by 2015. Overall, Airbus estimate African air cargo traffic to grow at 5.1% per annum, well above the world average over the next 20 years.

Africa



40

30

20

10

0

37

21

29


RealGDP

4.4%

EndFleet

89

ECONOMY


5.1%

TRAFFIC


56

FLEET

Results


Key Results

Latin America

Europe & CIS

NorthAmerica Asia-

Pacific

Africa

77/139 56/89

61/164

339/481798/1,062314/970

MiddleEast

2013 2032

World Fleetin service2013: 1,6452032: 2,905

freighter fleet in service evolution (2013-2032)Source: ASCEND, Airbus

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Units

Small freighters Large freightersMid-Size freighters

605

1,237

824

413

888

430

458

Converted

New built

over 870 neW built aircraft Will be reQuired during the next tWo decadesDeliveries per region and aircraft size (2013-2032)

freighter fleet to nearly double over the next 20 years

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Freighter Aircraft Fleet

2013 2032

1,645

2,904 2,905

x1,8

ftk traffic groWth per region [2012-2032]

CIS5.3%

Middle East4.8%

Africa5.1%

LatinAmerica5.1%

World4.8%

North America3.9%

Asia-Pacific5.5%

Europe4.8%


07

summary data

neW freight aircraft deliveries by regionFreight aircraft ≥10 tonnes

smallsmall mid-sizemid-size largelarge totaltotal

Africa 00 88 1010 1818

Asia/Pacifi c 00 8181 196196 277277

CIS 00 1313 88 2121

Europe 00 4747 7878 125125

Latin America 00 2626 22 2828

Middle East 00 2121 5555 7676

North America 00 217217 109109 326326

total 00 413413 458458 871871

converted freight aircraft deliveries by regionFreight aircraft ≥10 tonnes

small mid-size large total

Africa 29 29 11 69

Asia/Pacifi c 342 147 158 647

CIS 11 24 12 47

Europe 65 123 56 244

Latin America 61 38 2 101

Middle East 7 39 28 74

North America 90 424 163 677

total 605 824 430 1,859

Global Market Forecast56

AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France© AIRBUS S.A.S. 2013 - All rights reserved,Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.

Concept design by Art & Caractère. Photos by: EXM Company: H. Gousse, Shutterstock: Mediagram, Oleinik Dmitri, Contrail, Thorsten Schier, Pan Xunbin, 06photo, SeanPavonePhoto.Fotolia: Anna Omelchenko, magann.Computer renderings by Fixion.October 2013. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.Confi dential and proprietary document. This documentand all information contained herein is the soleproperty of AIRBUS S.A.S.. No intellectual propertyrights are granted by the delivery of this document orthe disclosure of its content. This document shall notbe reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where the supporting groundsfor these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. willbe pleased to explain the basis thereof.

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