future outlook of man made cellulosic fibre
TRANSCRIPT
!!
“ Technology is the ability of applying scientific knowledge for practical purposes, especially for achieving industrial and business
objectives”
Future!Outlook!of!!Man!Made!Cellulosic!Fibres!
!Suomen!Puu8!ja!Polymeerikemian!Yhdistys!
11.5.2015!!
Heikki!Hassi!PhD,!!Senior!Partner!SciTech8Service!Oy,!Ltd.!
Future Outlook ofMan Made Cellulosic Fibres
Suomen Puu- ja Polymeerikemian Yhdistys11.5.2015
Heikki Hassi PhD, Senior P a r t rSciTech-Service Oy, Ltd.
" Technology is the ability of applying scientific knowledge forpractical purposes, especially for achieving industrial a n d businessobjectives "
SciTech-Service
Contents''• Global'tex-le'fibre'market'• “Cellulose'Gap”''• The'opportunity'':'and'challenges'• VTT'and'SciTech:Service'• Main'players'of'the'industry'• The'raw'material:'Dissolving'pulp'• Case'China'• Case'Europe'• Investment'trend'• Conclusions'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Contents
' Global textile fibre market' ”Cellulose Gap”' The opportunity - and challenges' VTT and SciTech-Service' Main players of the industry' The raw material: Dissolving pulp' Case China' Case Europe' Investment trend' Conclusions
SciTech-Service
• Global'tex-le'fibre'market'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' Global textile fibre market
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
1111000Worldlannuä productionoäfCošttonWooISeMan-madeFlber's
”"""" i m i n ‐ n a l80000
70000
sanoo : ; šSšvntheticMMF
50011)
40011)
RawCotton5 E%.?
30000
šcellulosic MMF. %(Me,Lyocel,etc.)10000
O O
Internationalde la Bayonneet des FibresSynthétiques
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
7 0 '
hetic MMF
30
20
chnsicMMFm.. :oge,LyooeIetc.)
us:;assessmsssssssmammat-5131351365tst-5383se:33WMIWQWW"mmm";'B i r - ' d a ! r ä ä ! : i 3 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 3 8 8 2 8 8 8 8 3 8 2 8 8 2 8 8 8 8 8 8 ” 5 5Source Comité Internationalde la Rayonne et des FibresSynthétiques
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
15'
10'
5'
%!!
%!of!texJle!fibres!total!
1000t!
3a!CAGR!%!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
GDW I I | | | I I I I I | | | | I I l | | | | I I I | | | | l | ICellulosicMan-MadeFibers
[Global production1000t; 33CAGR%; Market share %]
15
10
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'R.Brice/CelCo'
Strong'growth
'is'expected'to
'con-nue!'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Outlook for Textile Cellulosic Fibresoutput continues to grow
. Viscose staple . Lyocell staple . Textile Viscose lilam'000 tons7,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Source: R.Brice/CeICo
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• “Cellulose'Gap”'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' ”Cellulose Gap”
SciTech-Service
“Cellulose Gap”
Cellulose Gap
Man-Made Cellulosic
Fibres
Cotton
Synthetic Fibres
Wool
World Population
Prosperity
Environ-mental
Friendliness
’11:’20'CAGR'1.1%'
’11:’20'CAGR'2.4%'
Consumer'demand'
Growing'fibre'consump-on'
ShiU'in'fibre'demand'
Most'suited'to'fill'limited'coVon'supply'
Produc-on'not'growing,'environmen:tal'issues'
Oil'based'product'
Some'1.4%'of'total'fibre'market'
Supply'not'mee-ng'demand'
Cellulosic'fibres'
Demand!Trends! Supply!Trends!Outcome!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'Avilon'Fibres'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
"Cellulose Gap"
DemandTrends
World '11-'20 CAGRPopulation 1-1%
. '11‐'20 CAGRProsperlty 24%
Environ‑mental Consumerdemand
Friendliness
Outcome
Growing fibreconsumption
Cellulose GapShift in fibredemand
Supply notmeeting demand
Supply Trends
Man-MadeCellulosicFibres
Most suited tofill limited cottonsupply
Production notgrowing,environmen-talissues
Cotton
Oil basedproduct
Some 1.4% oftotal fibremarket
Source: Avilon Fibres
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• The'opportunity''–'and'challenges'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' The opportunity ‐ and challenges
SciTech-Service
The!Opportunity:!• 50!%!of!current!coRon!and!polyester!fabric!consumpJon!could!be!replaced!by!fabrics!made!of!!
man8made!cellulosic!fibers!providing!that!the!properJes!are!developed!further!and!price!is!compeJJve!(Source:!IKEA,!2012).!!!
• Lyocell!and!other!viscose!qualiJes!could!be!used!in!greater!quanJty!providing!that!such!fabrics!are!available!in!environmentally!friendly!form!and!properJes!in!some!criJcal!aspects!are!improved!(Source:!H&M,!2012).!
Challenges!to!Viscose!Fibre:!• Cost!compeJJveness!
• High!investment!cost!• High!operaJng!cost!(raw!material,!energy,!chemicals,!environmental!protecJon)!!
• Fibre!performance!• Tenacity;!Wet!stability;!Abrasion!resistance!!
Lyocell!(NMMO!technology)!may!be!a!parJal!answer!to!these!challenges.!Carbamate!technology!is!a!promising!water!based!alternaJve!(not!commerciliazed).!Novel!technologies!in!laboratory!scale!include,!e.g.,!ionic!liquid!based!spinning.!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
The Oppor tun i ty :' 50 %of current cotton and polyester fabric consumption could be replaced by fabrics made of
man-made cellulosic fibers providing that the properties are developed further and price iscompetitive (Source: IKEA,2012).
' Lyocell and other viscose qualities could be used in greater quantity providing that such fabricsare available in environmentally friendly form and properties in some critical aspects areimproved (Source: H&M, 2012).
Challenges to Viscose Fibre:' Cost competitiveness
' High investment cost' High operating cost (rawmaterial, energy, chemicals, environmental protection)
' Fibre performance' Tenacity;Wet stability; Abrasion resistance
Lyocell (NMMO technology) m a y be a partial answer to these challenges.Carbamate technology is a promisingwater based alternative (not commerciliazed).Novel technologies in laboratory scale include, e.g. , ionic l iquid based spinning.
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Viscose staple in C h i n a is compet i t ive w i t h Ch inese c o t t o n
Apart from a brief period in(311 2011 When theinternational price for
CotlookA Index [FE] ----”-Jiscose Staple |Cotton cotton (CUUUUH .A index)US$ per kg surged to n e w highs, thlS
price has been below theB.IZID . . .dornestlc pnce for wscoses ta - ' | n a .
5.EIEIBut Within lChina the spotprice for viscose staplehas been persistentlarbelow that for cotton since
4.EID
S.EID
C h i n e s e s p i n n e r s a n dg u n weavers faced With a
choice of fibres for fabricsdestined for export or
1-80 domestic markets ares a a m e . - p c t , : b r e s Iikeli; t o increase their use
U.DD ] l l l l l I | | | | I l l l l l l l l l ] Df Eheaper ViSCDSE Staple$? & ;> 53 $? 53” 9 $?” $:?J 539 ,c? 9 :S :S) 'S' '& :?" &* :Ö :<x :3' 33' [ a t m expensg m m m )o < š ö o * & ö o k s ‐ ö o ä š ö o < 3 c $ o x .s * v g ö o s ' ö v Q ö o s ' v a ö o š v a ' b s t ö o s ' b v - Q Thls could w e l l h a v e
benefitted viscose stapledemand and keep capacity.autilisation up.
P C I Slide 20pF- ib res 1ll'iscose Industry Forum, Xiaoshan: Manune 2012
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'Journal'of'the'Tex-le'Associa-on'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Chart of the Property
Properties Cotton ! nayon N Wool Aoetate Nylon Polyester Acrylic Moda OlefinCryl ic
Bulk and Ioft ‐ - + ++ - - +++ +++
Wrinkle recovery ‐ ‐ +++ ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ ++
Press (wet) retention - - - + ++ +++
Absorbency + + + + + + + + + + - - - - ‑
Static resistance +++ +++ ++ + + ‐ + + ++
Resistance to pilling + + + + + + + + + + + ++
Strength ++ + + + +++ +++ + + + + +
Abrasion resistance + ‐ ++ ‐ +++ +++ + + +++
Stability ++ - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Resistance to heat + + + X +++] ++ + + + ++ - ‑
V+++ : excellent; ++ : good; + : fair; - : deficient
Source: Journal of the Textile Association
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Viscose!Process:!Complex;!high!investment!&!operaJon!cost!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
FromPulptoElba! Viscose Process: Complex; high investment & operation cost
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SciTech-Service
• VTT'and'SciTech:Service'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' VTT and SciTech-Service
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
*fvn'Cellulose g a r a m (CCA) was developed toreplace the old viscose process
Arguments for industry:- CCA production is separated from applications- Logistics are similar to other oellulose derivatives and plastics- CCA production is a tayguraplgoption for current oellulose derivative
industry or by dissolved pulp mill (new or value added product)
Novel opportunites
' CCA opens UPa possibility to refin - Only minor investments are needed for current viscose industry ‐ maiorproductlon. vin in in tin
- R&D has been done with industrial partners - for both CCA production' One market opportunity is to renevr and applications
- Concept is tested in industrial scale- Final products from CCA have bee‑
' Enables Vide variety of rawmaterai- from dissolving pulp to natural
.'
- Recent pilot: recycled postconsumer cotton to regenerated fibre
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
VTT'&'SciTech'coopera-on:''• In'2014,'VTT'invested'in'viscose'laboratory'and'bench'scale'spinning'pilot,'suitable'for'water'based'spinning'dopes'like'viscose,'CCA'(carbamate)'and'Biocelsol.''
'• This'laboratory,'located'in'Otaniemi,'is'operated'jointly'by'VTT'and'SciTech'Service'Oy.'''
• VTT'uses'the'laboratory'&'pilot'for'its'technology'development'projects'and'for'SciTech'it'is'essen-al'for'providing'high'level'exper-se'services'to'the'MMCF'industry,'globally.'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
VTT & SciTech cooperation:
' ln 2014, VTT invested in viscose laboratory and bench scale spinning pilot,suitable for water based spinning dopes like viscose, CCA (carbamate) andBiocelsol.
' This laboratory, located in Otaniemi, is operated jointly by VTT and SciTechService Oy.
' VTT uses the laboratory & pilot for its technology development projectsand for SciTech it is essential for providing high level expertise services tothe MMCF industry, globally.
SciTech-Service
• Main'players'of'the'industry'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' |V|ain players of the industry
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
C h i n a domina tes capacity b u t Lenzing and B i r l a lead t h e m a r k e t
Capacity CapacityCompany Plant Locations Outside lChina Within lChina
Lenzing Austria, Indonesia, Germany, |China SBDDDU llDDDU
Birla |ndia,Thai|and, Indonesia, lChina BWDDD BDDDD
Chinese plants |China - 1534300
lClther SAmer ica, Europe,;äsia 2873300 ‑
Total 1544,70!) 2,724,ooo
Soume.-P C !Fibres
Slide 13PciöL/Fibres
Both Lenzing and Birlahave a global productionfootprint and both are alsosteadily adding capacity.
Both companies expect tohave 1 rnillion tons ofcapacity by 2015 (in thecase of Lenzing thisincludes its Lyocellcapacity) .
The Chinese plants(excluding the Lenzing andBirla plants] accounted for81% of global capacity in2012.
1ll'iscose Industry Fomm, Xiaoshan: Maleune 2012
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• The'raw'material:'Dissolving'pulp'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' The raw material: Dissolving pulp
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
(HPC=High'Purity'Pulp;'DWP=Dissolving'Wood'Pulp;'CLP=CoVon'Linter'Pulp)'
Source:'R.Brice/CelCo'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Nearly 60% of HPC Demandis for VSF Grade DWP
(HPC=High Purity Pulp; DWP=Dissolving Wood Pulp; CLP=Cotton Linter Pulp)
4%1%11% . VSF DWP
. Other Commodi ty DWP
. Speciality DWP1 8%
. Commodity C L P59%
. Speciality C L P
. Other HPC
Source: R.Brice/Ce|Co
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'RISI'
Conversion'margin'in'China'1000:1500'US$/t'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
4,500
Vicose PulpandWscose Staple FiberPrices (Deliveredto China)US$/lomo
45000 ‑
3,500 ‑
3,000 ‑
2,500 ‑
2,000 ‑
1,500 ‑
1,000 ‑
500 ‑
‐ V i c o s e Pulp
‐ V i s o o s e Staple Fiber
l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
&& && 3306M”WooRaikosxci‐KoiNonoSource: RISI
Conversion marginin China1000-1500 US$/t
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'R.Brice/CelCo'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Outlook for VSF Grade DWPcontinued substantial excess capacity
- VSF GradeDWPDemand - Other CornmociyGradeDWPDemand‐ T o t a lColnmodiy DWPCapacity - + - AverageArmual Price (RI-IS)
7,000 - - . - . - . - . ‐ - - . - . - . - . - 2.50"
6,0002,000
5,000
4.00" - 1,500
3,000 1,000
2,000 ‑- 500
1,000 ‑
Source: R.Brice/CeICo
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
1. Dissolving'pulp'prices'follow'coVon'• VSF'<>'CoVon'Subs-tu-on'• DWP'<>'CLP'Subs-tu-on'
'2. Increasing'price'vola-lity'
'3. Rising'price'trend,'driven'by'coVon'
DWP'='Dissolving'Wood'Pulp'CLT'='CoVon'Linter'Pulp'
Source:'RISI'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Quarterly Dissolving PulpandCotton Prices
US$/tonne (US$/tonne& USC/lb ) usc/lb2,500 200
- 180 1. Dissolving pulp prices follow cotton2,000 160 ' VSF <>Cotton Substitution
‐ 140 ' DWP <>CLP Substitution1,500 - 120
A - 100 2. Increasing price volatility1,000 - 80
V , 50 3. Rising price trend, driven by cotton500 W ,,
. 20 DWP : DissolvingWood Pulp0 0 CLT=Cotton Linter Pulp8 8 8 8 8 8 B 8 S = "o 8 2 8 N 8 8 8 8 8 8
‐ D P ‐Co t t o nDP-China CIF Import Pricein US$/tonneCotton - UplandCottonSpot Price in USC/lb
Source: RISI
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• Case'China'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' Case China
SciTech-Service
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres convr..mFh‑.mcomm&Cnv.nunaMnunaMfnvLuunvnvuu"uu0n»ruutuuFh.
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SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
CLP'0.8:1Mt/a'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
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China pulp supply
-China pulp capacityrChina pulp capacity is o y e r BSDOkt and cot tonlinter pulp accounts for mos t ofglobalcapacity. Though the cardinal number of
-China pulp supplyThough China has large pulp capacity, theutilization is |DW [5D%] restrained byresources, environmental protection andprofits.In 2011, China pulp supply totals 1600l<t anddissolying pulp import totals 11 50l<t.
bamboo and wood pulp is smaller, the growthis rapid in recent years.
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SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• China'is'the'leading'viscose'fibre'producer'in'the'world,'with'a'61%'market'share'in'2012.'• China's'viscose'fibre'producers'benefit'from'their'close'proximity'to'China's'tex-le'
manufacturers,'which'are'the'primary'consumers'of'viscose'fibre.''BUT'shortage'of'forest'resources'is'a'problem:'
• In'2012''China’s''dissolving'pulp'mill’s'u-liza-on'rate'was'reported'to'be'only'50%'''
Dissolving!Wood!Pulp!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' China is the leading viscose fibre producer in the world, with a 61% market share in 2012.' China's viscose fibre producers benefit from their close proximity to China's textile
manufacturers,Which are the primary consumers of viscose fibre.
BUT shortage of forest resources is a problem:' ln 2012 China's dissolving pulp mill's utilization rate was reported to be only 50%
Wood Chip Import Price DissolvingWood Pulp(US$/m!) MajorNetExpertin;and lmportlnzCountries,2012
/ SouthAfn 7359129;150 ' ” ' 'mm Canada 575351
Es; j- :;100 M... 403363
Brazil 390,500WoodChlpz , , .. , ,.
China 1581588om Indonesia 431,43:
8 8 3 8 8 B 8 8 3 : €:” 2 2 2 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 Gem” 371000Source: UNFAO (2013); Thšlländ 152.943
India 143,350burn UHFlOlNlil
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Source:'R.Brice/CelCo'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Viscose Staple ProductionChina dominates but growth in other Asian markets
N America - s America - ch Europe- E Europe ‐ cn ' l l a - Ma- A s e m ‐ Other Asia -----0- Annual Growth (RI-IS)
'000tons % permnum7,000 25%
6,000 ‐ 20%
5,000 ‐ 15%
4,000 ‐ 10%
3,000 ‐ 5%
2,000‐ ‐ 0 %
1,000 ‐ ‐ &%
‐ 40%
Source: R.Brice/CeICo
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• Case'Europe'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' Case Europe
SciTech-Service
Case!Europe;!a!snapshot!:!!1. Lenzing:!Global!technology!leader,!developer!of!Lyocell.!Most!of!producJon!in!Asia!
!2. Kelheim!Fibres:!SpecialiJes,!high!quality,!producJon!in!Europe!
!3. Cordenka;!Glanzstoff:!Highly!specilized!(tyre!cord),!very!small.!ProducJon!in!Europe.!
!4. Enka:!Highly!specialized,!yet!producJon!moved!to!China!
!5. Avilon!Fibres!(former!Säteri):!Bankruptcy!in!2013!
!6. Sniace:!Bankruptcy!in!2013!
!7. AcJve!on8going!R&D!and!technology!development!in!several!countries.!!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Case Europe; a snapshot :
1. Lenzing: Global technology leader, developer of Lyocell. Most of production in Asia
2. Kelheim Fibres: Specialities, high quality, production in Europe
3. Cordenka; Glanzstoff: Highly specilized (tyre cord), very small. Production in Europe.
4. Enka: Highly specialized, yet production moved to China
5. Avilon Fibres (former Säteri): Bankruptcy in 2013
6. Sniace: Bankruptcy in 2013
7. Active on-going R&D and technology development in several countries.
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
European'Example:'Kelheim'Fibres,'a'leading'producer'of'viscose'special-es.'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
European Example: Kelheim Fibres, aleading producer of viscosespecialties.
m m m Use of Functionalised Viscose FibresKelheim Fibres GmbHAcquires FR FibreTechnology from Bankrupt Avilon in Medicine and Hyg|e ne
In line with its strategy of oontinued specialisation, Kelheim Fibres GmbH. the world's leading producer ofspeciality viscose tibres. has reached an agreement with the banknipt Finnish libre company Avilon for theaoquisition of knowhow and technology for the production of flame retardant viscose staple iibres. previously - D r , Philipp Wimmermarketed under the Visita name. In the late 19905. operating as Saeteri. Avilon pioneered the production ofsuch Hbres designed to meet the requirements in place for fumishings in the American market. Matthew ' ' n c e :North. Commercial Director of Kelheim FibresGmbH, comments: 'The US market has become dependent - ' Ot Planton supply of FRviscose tibres from China. The agreement we have reached will allow us to tinalisedevelopment of FR tibres based on the knowledge and experience of the historical market leader and alter areliable, high-quality alternative to Asian sources". Initial production trials at Kelheimwith the support ofAvilon technicians were completed successfully in April 2013 and the tibres are currently undergoing testing.It is expected that samples of the newfibre will be available for customer tests by early May 2013. KelheimFibres GmbHwill be showing its full range of speciality viscose tibres at the IDEA International EngineeredFabrics Exhibition in Miami. USAfrom 23. to 25. April 2013.
. *- . u ' f, a . , n'..‑'. ”?s- . 1.- ' " n (, u 0‑, ' ; ” ' , ' ' , ; ' J
(4 - "
‐ . : . / , j a u e & L - .Bayern%nnovativ
Cooperation forum Biopolymers - 21. Oktober 2014, Straubing
Functionalized Viscose Specialty Fibres fo r Beer Filtration
1KelheimKelie'm Fibres: Walter Roggenstein l l e ]h 6 l m )( KRO" ES N] b re SKronesAG. Dr. Jorg Zacharias &” bTCS
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
• Investment'trend'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
' Investment trend
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Cancelled/Delayed!
Cancelled/Delayed!
Cancelled/Delayed!
Cancelled/Delayed!!
(Lyocell)'
Source:'RISI'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Table 1 - Announcedworld viscose staplemerupadlyexpmshns (thousmdtonnes)
Mil oomtry 'Wpe Capadly Year
Lenzing(Lyooell] USA Upgrade 10.000 2012
Lenzing China Upgrade 30000 2012
TangShan Sanyou cnina Newlne 160.000 2012
Lenzlng Imlanesla Newlne 30000 2012
Blrla(Grasin) India NewmII 120.000 2013
Jiangrd Longda Chha New lne 200.000 2013
SamnFulhn onha Newmll 200.000 2013
Blrla Cancelled/Delayed Turkey Newmll 90.000 2013
Lenzlng (Tunden Austria Newlne 60,000 2014 &?
ShandongYamel China Newlne 110.000 2014 QB š"
LeedMan Chha NewmII 100.000 2014 5 g
Lenting Cancelled/Delayed India Newmll 110.000 2015 5 g:Leung Cancelled/Delayed ” " " ! """” 50900 2015 ? 490Lenzing (Lvocell) USA New Ine 60.000 2015 (SS‐š?
”"" Cancelled/Delayed TW” """” 130.000 2016Total 1,440.000
Source: RISI
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres SciTech-Service
c c f group . com' ChinaChemlcalFlbersaTexnles Consultancy
kt Fastgrowth of China VSF capacity and output $$»4000 35%
- Capacity - Output . Capacity growth (RHS)3500 30%
3000 75%2500
20%2000
15%1500
1000 10%
500 596
0 095
2000 2001 2002 2(X)3 2034 2005 2006 2007 2m8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
& )ZHEJIANG HUARUl INFORMATIONCONSULYINGCO., LTD.
SciTech-Service
Conclusions:!
!
• Steadily!growing!demand!of!texJle!fiber!and!limited!availability!of!coRon!have!opened!
a!great!opportunity!(“Cellulose!Gap”)!to!Man!Made!Cellulosic!Fibres!like!viscose,!Lyocell!!
8!and!to!potenJal!new!challengers.!
!
• Cost!compeJJveness!and!performance!of!MMCF!are!to!be!improved!in!order!to!take!a!
major!role!in!filling!the!“Cellulose!Gap”.!So!far,!polyester!has!been!the!main!subsJtute!
for!coRon.!
!
• The!100+!years!old!viscose!process!is!sJll!the!dominaJng!MMCF!manufacturing!process.!
There!is!a!strong!need!for!beRer!processes.!
!
• China!is!currently!the!biggest!MMCF!producing!country!–!with!a!narrowing!cost!benefit!
vs.,!e.g.,!Africa!and!Eastern!Europe.!
!
• Overcapacity!is!currently!holding!viscose!fibre!prices!low.!
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
Conclusions:
' Steadily growing demand of textile fiber and limited availability of cotton have openeda great opportunity (”Cellulose Gap") to Man Made Cellulosic Fibres like viscose, Lyocell- and to potential new challengers.
' Cost competitiveness and performance of MMCF are to be improved in order to take amajor role in filling the ”Cellulose Gap”. Sofar, polyester has been the main substitutefor cotton.
' The 100+years old viscose process is still the dominating MMCFmanufacturing process.There is a strong need for better processes.
' China is currently the biggest MMCF producing country ‐ with a narrowing cost benefitvs., e.g., Africa and Eastern Europe.
' Overcapacity is currently holdingviscose fibre prices low.
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
SciTech!Team!
www.scitech.fi'
Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
SciTech Team
El'lc EnqvistDr. in pulping technology.Specidized in non-wood raw‑moterials a n d unconventionalpulping methods, co-inventoraf FreeFiber process.
V I I .TarveDr.in chemical engineering.Specialized in process mode ingand industrid pulp bleoching.
N h a HbusMSC. in pulpingtechnology. Specializedin laboratorytechniques. manager ofSPR laboratory since200?
Prof.Panu ”IkkaDr. in pulping technology.Independent process technologydeveloper, consultant a n dentrepreneur, Inventor af variouspulping processess, such asSuperBatch. FreeFiber.
Holldd HasslDr. in wood Chemistry.Long internationalexperience in pulp & paper.chemical a n d textile libreindustries.
Sakari SironMSC. in organic Chemistry.Specialized in development ofindustrial viscosemanufacture, laboratorymanagement. and Q&Eperspective.
Jama HallkalnonMSC. in applied Chemistry.Specialized in pulp puriicationmethods and chemicalandytics for industrial use.
www.scitech.f'i
SciTech-Service Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
SciTech’s!Roots!
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Future Outlook of Man Made Cellulosic Fibres
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FSclTechBiorefining
FSclTechCellulosics
Espoo Laboratory2014Senech Innovalions2013Avilon2010saari1997
FSclTech Laboratory
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sare" 1941(moved to Valkeakoski]
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