future outlook for solar power - energy week...© wärtsilä public future outlook for solar power...
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© Wärtsilä PUBLIC
Future Outlook for Solar PowerPekka Tolonen
Director, Solar
Vaasa EnergyWeek
19th March 2018
19.3.2018 Future Outlook for Solar Power1
© Wärtsilä PUBLIC 19.3.2018 Future Outlook for Solar Power2
Sources : futurism.com, thebig5hub.com, solarquotes.com.au, pv-tech.org, greentechmedia.com
© Wärtsilä PUBLIC 19.3.2018 Future Outlook for Solar Power3
THE FUTURE IS HERE ALREADY
Almost one third, 98 GW out of ~310 GW
of new installed power generation
capacity during 2017 was solar
photovoltaic technology.
Solar PV
Other Renewables
Rest
Source : Bloomberg
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PRICE CURVES
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021*
Average Price Average Cost
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Solar photovoltaic panel prices have
decreased 40% during 2014-2017.
The lowest solar power price has
decreased 69% during the same period.
Sources : Electrec, NREL
Lowest cost of solar power
ECONOMY MEETS ENVIRONMENT
Cost of solar power has dropped
significantly thanks to declining prices of
solar panels and other hardware,
economies of scale, and strong
competition because of auction based
markets.
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THE TIPPING POINT
0
20
40
60
80
100
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Estimated levelized cost of electricity in China (USD/MWh)
What happens when new solar power becomes
cheaper than new coal power?
Source : Bloomberg
New Solar
New Coal
New CCGT
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THE ULTIMATE TIPPING POINT
0
20
40
60
80
100
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Estimated levelized cost of electricity in China (USD/MWh)
What happens when new solar power becomes
cheaper than existing coal power?
Source : Bloomberg
New Solar
Existing Coal
Existing CCGT
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RENEWABLE BASELOAD
By 2040, renewables will account for
over 50% of the electricity generation
globally, and Solar PV alone will take
more than half, ~320 out of ~600 GW of
new installed power generation capacity
during 2040.
Solar PV
Other Renewables
Rest
Source : Bloomberg
© Wärtsilä PUBLIC 19.3.2018 Future Outlook for Solar Power8
IMPLICATIONS
↓ Less room for inflexible power
generation
0
200
400
600
MW
A coal plant in Texas, 2006
0
200
400
600
MW
A coal plant in Texas, 2016
↑ More demand for flexible power
generation
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+
+
ENGINE POWER
GENERATION
SOLAR
GENERATION
ENERGY STORAGE
&
ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEMS
OPTIMISED
GENERATION
MAXIMIZE
RENEWABLE
PENETRATION
SYSTEM
STABILITY
+
+
WE ENABLE SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES
WITH SMART TECHNOLOGIES
THE ENERGY
SYSTEM
INTEGRATOR
© Wärtsilä PUBLIC 19.3.2018 Future Outlook for Solar Power10
THANK YOU!